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1.
This paper presents a composite methodology for obtaining spatial and temporal projections of charging demand and peak-shaving potential from plug-in electric vehicles (EVs), and the associated spatio-temporal impacts on peak household electrical load. The methodology comprises a suite of models of future EV uptake, travel by households, household electricity demand and recharge/discharge of EVs at their home locations. The analysis is disaggregated to hourly time-steps over a full year, and spatially to mesh blocks comprising around 250 houses per block. The modelling suite is applied to an analysis of peak household load impacts across the state of Victoria, Australia, under nine different combinations of EV uptake and charging/discharging behaviour. The projected increase in peak household electrical loads under expected penetration rates and charging demands is less than 10 % on most high-demand days, but can be up to 15 % on a handful of days and geographic locations. Peak-load impacts under off-peak charging are mostly less than 5 %. With judicious EV discharging strategies, there is potential to shave peak loads on the highest demand days by up to 5 %.  相似文献   

2.
“十二五”及2020年电力需求预测研究   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
准确地把握未来10年的电力需求走势是做好电力规划、安排电力建设的重要基础.考虑到不同部门电力需求具有不同的决定因素和机制,本文把全社会用电量分为居民生活用电、农业用电、工业用电、建筑业用电和服务业用电等五个部分,构建、拟合不同的电力需求方程,预测电力需求.预测的主要结果是:“十二五”期间全社会用电量年均增长率约为7.8%,2015年用电量超过6万亿kWh,“十三五”期间的年均增长率为6.1%,2020年用电量接近8.2万亿kWh.未来10年,单位产值用电量将逐步下降,电力消费增长率将低于GDP增长率,电力需求弹性分别为0.84和0.72.电力需求结构将发生显著变化,到2020年居民生活用电占全社会用电比重为20%左右,工业用电比重将从当前的73%下降到2020年的63%.  相似文献   

3.
This paper develops an analytical model to calculate the amount by which individuals are expected to modify their values (the relationship between lifestyle and happiness, as measured by subjective well-being, SWB) and to adopt innovative technologies (to increase the sustainability of production and consumption, measured by the ecological footprint, EF) to allow current and future generations to achieve sustainable happiness (the pursuit of happiness that does not exploit other people, the environment, or future generations). The paper also examines the dependence of these changes on an individual’s concern for future generations and on their country’s current state of economic development. It is shown that individuals in better-off developed countries and individuals in worse-off developing countries can achieve sustainability with a reasonable level of value change (0–30 %) and a feasible degree of technological innovation (10–40 %), respectively. In contrast, individuals in better-off developing countries and individuals in worse-off developed countries must rely to an impractical degree of technological innovation (50–70 %) and to an unreasonable level of value change (40–70 %), respectively. Finally, individuals in developing countries differ from individuals in developed countries in terms of their potential to achieve sustainable happiness, by achieving sustainability at a low SWB (about 10 % of its maximum) and a high SWB (about 80 % of its maximum), respectively.  相似文献   

4.
Households are either directly or indirectly responsible for the highest share of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Hence, programs helping to improve human consumption habits have been identified as a comparatively cost-effective way to reduce household emissions significantly. Recently, various studies have determined strong regional differences in household carbon footprints, yet a case study for Germany has not been conducted. Local information and policies directed at household consumption in Germany thus devoid of any foundation. In this paper, we analyze the impact of different criteria such as location, income and size on household carbon footprints in Germany and demonstrate how the impact of GHG mitigation opportunities varies for different population segments. We use a multi-region input output hybrid LCA approach to developing a regionalized household carbon footprint calculator for Germany that considers 16 sub-national regions, 15 different household sizes, and eight different income and age categories. The model reveals substantial regional differences in magnitude and composition of household carbon footprints, essentially influenced by two criteria: income and size. The highest income household is found to emit 4.25 times as much CO2e than the lowest. We identify indirect emissions from consumption as the largest share of household carbon footprints, although this is subject to fluctuation based on household type. Due primarily to local differences in vehicle availability, income and nutrition, an average household in Baden-Wuerttemberg is found to have 25 % higher carbon footprint than its Mecklenburg-West Pomeranian counterpart. Based on the results of this study, we discuss policy options for household carbon mitigation in Germany.  相似文献   

5.
We observed skewed distribution across household of benefits of pesticide use in vegetable farming in Nepal. However, economic burden or harm of pesticide use and exposure by household economy is poorly studied. It is hypothesized that exaggerated and incompetent pesticide use is likely to affect human health that may lead to decline in human productivity, and economic loss––that may further marginalize farmers. Thus, a study was conducted in the Ansi khola watershed of Kavrepalanchowk District of central Nepal. The primary aim of the study was to value risks of pesticide use and to estimate health costs of exposure by household category. We grouped household into “large-scale” who owns more than 1 ha of agricultural land, “small-scale” having <0.5 ha and “medium-scale” in between >0.5 and <1 ha. Data were collected through (1) an initial household survey conducted from May to June 2008, (2) monthly visit surveys accomplished from June to November 2008 and (3) a final household survey conducted during November to December 2009. The cost of pesticide use and exposure was highest for medium-scale household; however, the economic burden in relation to incomes was the highest for small-scale household. On the basis of area under vegetables, small-scale household incurred 23 % higher economic burdens compared to the large-scale household. Overall, the cost of pesticide use and exposure amounted 15 % of agricultural income and/or 5 % of gross household income. For small-scale households, the cost was equivalent to 18 % of agricultural income and 6 % of gross income. Small-scale households are not only deprived from benefits of agriculture intensification, but also incurred highest burden of pesticide use.  相似文献   

6.
Traditional and indigenous knowledge on plants usage is a valuable source of information from cultural and natural perspectives, reflecting society’s complicated and close relationship with the environment. Communities have a valuable source of traditional knowledge on the utilization of natural resources, and it is worth to be documented and preserved for current and future applications. We conducted this research to collect and identify plant species of Karvan District and document the traditional knowledge on their use and consumption values. Regarding the results, 150 plant species are used by local communities, more than 30 % of which are directly consumed as food, 24 % (37 species) are used as medicinal plants, and 16.3 % are applied for decoration purposes; 58.6 % of the species are consumed in the raw form, and the remaining is processed before consumption. Leaves (35 %), seeds (21 %) and flowers (21 %) are the most frequent parts of the plants that are used. High number of young emigrants to industrialized areas in seek of job opportunities is threatening this precious source of indigenous knowledge. Attempts to preserve this empirical source of information by encouraging trans-generational knowledge transmission would help to maintain it for future applications.  相似文献   

7.
This study aimed to assess Japan’s recent “local production for local consumption” (LPLC) movement, with a special focus on vegetables in the Osaka city region of central Japan. After collecting statistics and spatial data, we conducted a multi-scale analysis of vegetable production and consumption along with the associated energy consumption, using geographical information system software at three spatial scales along the vegetable flow paths: national, regional, and local. Vegetables consumed in the Osaka city region came from prefectures throughout Japan, and we mapped the foodshed within this region at 1-km spatial resolution, as well as the distribution of farmland, farmers’ and other markets. We also conducted a scenario analysis for reduced energy consumption through organic farming and the utilization of abandoned farmland near a city to replace food imports from distant areas. We found that the large majority of vegetables consumed in the Osaka city region currently come from remote prefectures, and that this is associated with a high level of energy consumption. Inside the Osaka city region, peri-urban vegetable farming contributes to regional vegetable provision, resulting in an approximately 70 % production/consumption ratio within an 80-km radius of the urban center; if all of the area of abandoned farmland were restored to production, this ratio would increase to approximately 75 %. Organic farming activities that bring together farmers and urbanites are emerging in many parts of the study area, contributing to increased LPLC. Scenario analysis suggested that a decrease of more than 1 × 106 GJ of energy inputs could be achieved through wider adoption of local organic farming for local consumption and complete utilization of abandoned farmland in the Osaka city region.  相似文献   

8.
Pesticide handling practices have a strong bearing on the exposure of toxic effects to target and nontarget organism. A clear understanding of determinants of pesticide handling practices is a precondition in the design and implementation of policy intervention. To accomplish this, a household survey of 425 respondents was conducted in 2008. Majority of the farmers (85 %) had inappropriately handled pesticides, mainly through, unsafe storage (23 %), unsafe disposal of leftover in either sprays solutions, or rinsate and empty pesticide containers (40 %), failure to wear the required minimum protective gear (68 %), or overdosed pesticides (27 %). However, majority of those farmers were aware of the risks of pesticide use, with over 81 % expressing the view that pesticides have harmful effects on human health, livestock, beneficial arthropods, and on water. Econometric models showed that pesticide handling practices were significantly influenced by variation in record keeping, main source advice on pesticide use, toxicity of pesticide, and geographical location. Pesticide risk perception and negative impacts experiences had no association with handling practices. The study recommends policymakers to design effective, participatory, and location targeted outreach programmes, which deal specifically on promotion of record keeping and reduction in use of harmful pesticides.  相似文献   

9.
Wetlands are sustaining large communities of people in Rwanda where 10 % of its land surface consists of many local wetlands. Sustainable future management of these numerous wetlands requires a reliable inventory of their location and a dynamic quantitative characterization that allows assessment of their climate change sensitivity. The aim of this study was to assess the importance of climatic factors for determining wetland location at different regional scales. Wetland locations were analyzed and statistically modeled using their location factors with logistic regression. Wetland location probability was determined using topographic (elevation, slope), hydrological (contributing area) and climatic (temperature and rainfall) location factors. A wetland location probability map was made that demonstrated a calibration accuracy of 87.9 % correct at national level compared to an existing inventory, displaying even better fits at subnational level (reaching up to 98 % correct). A validation accuracy of 86.2 % was obtained using an independently collected dataset. A sensitivity analysis was applied to the threshold values used as cutoff value between wetland/non-wetland, demonstrating a robust performance. The developed models were used in a sensitivity scenario analysis to assess future wetland location probability to changes in temperature and rainfall. In particular, wetlands in the central regions of Rwanda demonstrate a high sensitivity to changes in temperature (1 % increase causes a net probable wetland area decline by 12.4 %) and rainfall (+1 % causes a net increase by 1.6 %). This potentially significant impact on wetland number and location probability indicates that climate-sensitive future planning of wetland use is required in Rwanda.  相似文献   

10.
The capacity of a concentrating solar thermal power (CSP) plant can be considered flexible and firm, just like that of a conventional steam cycle power station. Periods without sunshine can be bridged by thermal energy storage or fuel, enabling a CSP plant to deliver power on demand at any time. To this technical quality is added the economic quality of electricity costs that will be stable for a lifetime because they are mainly composed of capital costs, spare parts and personnel. CSP is competitive with power from fuel oil and moving to break even in costs with natural gas by around 2020 and steam coal by around 2025. Carbon dioxide emissions of 10–40 tons/GWh, land use of 250–550 m²/GWh and water consumption of 250 m³/GWh (using dry cooling) compare favorably with other energy sources. Environmental benefits, the technical imperative of firm and at the same time flexible power supply, and the economic targets of affordability and cost stability are the main reasons for a significant role for CSP in a sustainable future electricity mix. Two case studies show the different roles CSP can play north and south of the Mediterranean Sea, in one case importing CSP to Germany for flexible power and in the second case using CSP in Jordan to provide firm and at the same time renewable power capacity for the quickly growing electricity demand.  相似文献   

11.
随着居民部门用能快速增长,各国都在致力于观察本国居民能源消费特征以减少碳排放,特别是发达国家。本文应用近30年的微观调查数据分析美国居民能源消费现状和趋势,为发展中国家提供一些借鉴意义。从总量上看,伴随着人口、家庭数量和建筑面积的上升,能源消费总量变化较小,趋于稳定;人均用能则呈下降趋势。从用能结构来看,以天然气和电力为主,2009年分别占比44%和41%;近30年来天然气占比小幅下降,电力占比上升明显;完善的天然气设施和电力服务体系使得能源可获得性高。从用途分类来看,取暖和家电占绝大比例,2009年分别占比41%和35%;取暖用能近30年来出现平缓下降趋势,燃料来源70%是天然气;家电设备用能占比明显上升,增长近1倍;制冷占比较小,近年出现小幅上升;热水用能则比较稳定。家庭炊事燃料以电力和天然气为主,2009年分别占比60%和34%。近30年,家用电器保有量和能源效率有显著提高。建筑用能方面,美国房屋服务时间长,后期建筑房屋在保温性能方面高于早期房屋,单位面积耗能下降。美国居民享受着较高水平的能源服务,能源消费总量在近30年没有明显变化,这和能源效率的提高有着密切关系;如完善的"能源之星"项目是一个强有力的措施,以及完善的能源统计制度为能源分析提供了有力的数据支撑。相比,中国存在居民炊事用能固体燃料占比较高、建筑服务周期短、建筑材料耗能比重大等问题。建议中国政府进一步完善能源统计制度、推行农村能源扶持项目和能源标识、加强建筑规划、落实建筑能耗标准。  相似文献   

12.
The objective of this paper is to analyse the impacts of climate change on a pine forest stand in Central Siberia (Zotino) to assess benefits and risks for such forests in the future. We use the regional statistical climate model STARS to develop a set of climate change scenarios assuming a temperature increase by mid-century of 1, 2, 3 and 4 K. The process-based forest growth model 4C is applied to a 200-year-old pine forest to analyse impacts on carbon and water balance as well as the risk of fire under these climate change scenarios. The climate scenarios indicate precipitation increases mainly during winter and decreases during summer with increasing temperature trend. They cause rising forest productivity up to about 20 % in spite of increasing respiration losses. At the same time, the water-use efficiency increases slightly from 2.0 g C l?1 H2O under current climate to 2.1 g C l?1 H2O under 4 K scenario indicating that higher water losses from increasing evapotranspiration do not appear to lead to water limitations for the productivity at this site. The simulated actual evaporation increases by up to 32 %, but the climatic water balance decreases by up to 20 % with increasing temperature trend. In contrast, the risk of fire indicated by the Nesterov index clearly increases. Our analysis confirms increasing productivity of the boreal pine stand but also highlights increasing drought stress and risks from abiotic disturbances which could cancel out productivity gains.  相似文献   

13.
城市居民生活能源消费研究进展综述   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
近十年来中国城市消费领域能耗年增长率已达到7.4%,超过中国总能耗量5.9%的年增长率。随着中国逐渐完成工业化进程,其工业用能将呈现增速放缓甚至总量减少的趋势,而居民生活及交通能源需求将随着人民生活水平提高而稳步增长,最终呈现总量与比重逐渐增加的态势。城市居民活动与其能源消费的定量化分析已成为当前多学科的研究热点。本文以家庭室内和室外直接能源消费作为研究对象,对城市居民生活能耗的影响因素、能源足迹核算方法、时间-室内能耗模拟,及空间-交通-能源耦合模拟等关键问题的研究进展进行综述。研究发现,第一,家庭能源消费属于派生性需求,不同的时间利用方式会产生能源消费水平和结构上的差异,但现有研究较少从时间及活动链分析角度展开。第二,由于家庭预算及时间约束的存在,室内外能源消费行为密切相关,但少有研究对上述两个城市生活部门的能源消费进行整体性分析核算。第三,基于活动的建模方法可以提供一种将居民室内外用能行为进行整合的分析框架。最后对今后该领域的研究开展进行了展望:第一,从活动分析和时间利用视角,建立自下而上的居民室内外用能活动仿真模型,在更小的时间和空间尺度模拟家庭能源需求,识别家庭能耗的主要来源、控制的重点人群、时段和区域,指导能源政策制定;第二,深入剖析能源回弹效应产生的决策机理,以及怎样的政策或政策组合可以有效减少回弹;第三,将社会网络分析引入居民生活能耗研究,更加全面理解影响家庭用能行为的机制,为家庭能源消费管理提供新思路。  相似文献   

14.
This paper compared the life cycle inventory (LCI) obtained from three commercial oil palm biomass composting projects in Malaysia which use the open windrow composting system. The LCI was obtained and calculated based on the functional unit of 1 t of compost produced. The input of the inventory are the feed materials such as empty fruit bunches (EFB) and palm oil mill effluent (POME); and utilities which include electricity generated at palm oil mill and diesel used. Composting 2.0–2.5 t of EFB and 5.0–7.5 t of POME required diesel from 218.7 to 270.2 MJ and electricity from 0 to 6.8 MJ. It is estimated that the composting emitted from 0.01 to 0.02 t CO2eq/tcompost mainly from diesel used to operate machineries. Composting saved 65 % of time required for a complete degradation of POME when compared to ponding system, and 89 % of time required for a complete degradation of EFB compared to mulching. In terms of land required, it required 36 % less land as compared to ponding for POME and 99 % less land as compared to mulching for EFB. Based on the case study, diesel was found to be the main contributor to the environmental impact. There is a potential of upgrading the process to be more economical and environmental friendly. Using electricity as the source of energy has a lower footprint for the composting process. Instead of using raw POME, studies had reported that using treated POME either from anaerobic ponding or digested tank can accelerate the composting process.  相似文献   

15.
Loss of forest cover is a likely consequence of climate change in many parts of the world. To test the vulnerability of eucalypt forests in Australia’s island state of Tasmania, we modelled tree canopy cover in the period 2070–2099 under a high-emission scenario using the current climate–canopy cover relationship in conjunction with output from a dynamically downscaled regional climate model. The current climate–canopy cover relationship was quantified using Random Forest modelling, and the future climate projections were provided by three dynamically downscaled general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Three GCMs were used to show a range of projections for the selected scenario. We also explored the sensitivity of key endemic and non-endemic Tasmanian eucalypts to climate change. All GCMs suggested that canopy cover should remain stable (proportional cover change <10 %) across ~70 % of the Tasmanian eucalypt forests. However, there were geographic areas where all models projected a decline in canopy cover due to increased summer temperatures and lower precipitation, and in addition, all models projected an increase in canopy cover in the coldest part of the state. The model projections differed substantially for other areas. Tasmanian endemic species appear vulnerable to climate change, but species that also occur on the mainland are likely to be less affected. Given these changes, restoration and carbon sequestration plantings must consider the species and provenances most suitable for future, rather than present, climates.  相似文献   

16.
District Swat is part of the high mountain Hindu-Kush Himalayan region of Pakistan. Documentation and analysis of land use change in this region is challenging due to very disparate accounts of the state of forest resources and limited accessible data. Such analysis is, however, important due to concerns over the degradation of forest land leading to deterioration of the protection of water catchments and exposure of highly erodible soils. Furthermore, the area is identified as hotspot for biodiversity loss. The aim of this paper is to identify geophysical and geographical factors related to land use change and model how these relationships vary across the district. For three selected zones across the elevation gradient of the district, we analyse land use change by studying land use maps for the years 1968, 1990 and 2007. In the high-altitude zone, the forest area decreased by 30.5 %, a third of which was caused by agricultural expansion. In the mid-elevation zone, agriculture expanded by 70.3 % and forests decreased by 49.7 %. In the lower altitudes, agriculture expansion was 129.9 % consuming 31.7 % of the forest area over the forty-year time period. Annual deforestation rates observed were 0.80, 1.28 and 1.86 % in high, mid and low altitudes, respectively. In the high-altitude ecosystems, accessibility (distance to nearest road and city) had no significant role in agriculture expansion; rather land use change appears significantly related to geophysical factors such as slope, aspect and altitude. In the low-elevation zone, accessibility was the factor showing the closest association with agriculture expansion and abandonment. The analysis illustrates that land use change processes vary quite considerably between different altitudinal and vegetation cover zones of the same district and that environmental constraints and stage of economic development provide important contextual information.  相似文献   

17.
The objective of this research is to investigate the reduction in fuel consumption and emission in spark ignition engine using blended bioethanol-gasoline and novel radiator-tube heater. Different percentages of ethanol – 0, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30% – are employed. The blended fuel is then pre-heated by sending it into a tube-heater-installed upper tank radiator which has different shape. The results show a significant reduction in fuel consumption and emission in engine. The best economical fuel consumption occurs in the tube-heater with a fin pipe of 10 mm space at 2.153 × 10?3 cc per cycle or 5.632%. However, the most economical fuel consumption occurs when 25% of bioethanol is added to fuel at 3.175?×?10?3 per cycle. This decreases fuel consumption by 8.306%. The highest decrease in fuel consumption occurs when fuel blended with 25% of bioethanol and tube-heater of 10 mm 6.236?×?10?3 cc per cycle or 16.313% is combined. In terms of emission reduction, the tube-heater with a space of 20 mm between fins (Tube 20) using a fuel mixture of 25% ethanol and 75% gasoline produced the lowest CO emissions.  相似文献   

18.
Production of rice husks in Rio Grande do Sul State, which is the major rice production state in Brazil, needs to be adequately managed to diminish environmental impacts. A Micro Thermal Power Plant (MTP), which is a compact and small-scale biomass thermal power plant technology, can be used in electricity generation in thermal power plants with a power capacity up to 800 kWel. This paper presents a feasibility analysis of a 300 kWel MTP that is fuelled by rice husks using two different scenarios: the autoproduction (Case 1) and the independent production (Case 2) of electricity. Both scenarios were found to be unfeasible. Therefore, a sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the variables that affect feasibility, such as the electricity commercialization price, the value of certified emission reductions and the financial interest rates. According to sensitivity analysis, small-scale thermal power plants could have feasibility if they received incentives through government programmes, such as through the exemption of equipment taxes and/or the reduction or elimination of the financial interest rate.  相似文献   

19.
The aim of this paper was to present the contribution of the sugar cane industry to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in the energy sector. Mauritius is taken as a case study. Sugar cane was introduced in Mauritius during the seventeenth century and production of sugar started around 60 years later. Since then, the cane industry has been one of the economic pillars of the country. Bagasse, a by-product of sugar cane, is used as fuel in cogeneration power plants to produce process heat and electricity. This process heat and the generated electricity are used by an annexed sugar mills for the production of sugar, while the remaining electricity is exported to the national grid. In fact, Mauritius is a pioneer in the field of bagasse-based cogeneration power plant; the first bagasse-based cogeneration power plant that was commissioned in the world was in Mauritius in 1957. The contribution of the cane industry in the electricity sector has been vital for the economic development of Mauritius and also in terms of mitigating carbon dioxide emissions by displacing fossil fuels in electricity generation, as bagasse is classified as a renewable source. Data obtained from Statistics Mauritius on electricity production for the past 45 years were analysed, and carbon dioxide emissions were calculated based on international norms. It is estimated that savings on heavy fuel oil importation were by 1.5 million tons of oil—representing a value of 2.9 billion dollars—thus avoiding 4.5 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions. This figure can be further increased if molasses, a by-product of sugar cane juice, is used to produce bio-ethanol to be used as fuel in vehicles.  相似文献   

20.
A core question in energy economics may be stated as follows: Is the cost–benefit analysis being correctly applied when we encourage investments in renewables, as an alternative to the traditional energy sources? The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth has been extensively treated within economics literature. Yet, literature on the nexus between specific energy sources and GDP is almost inexistent. In this article, we intend to explore the relationship between a certain type of renewable generation technology (solar PV) and GDP. The present and above all the planned energy mix might differ widely from one country to another. Thus, the analysis by source of energy generation becomes a helpful instrument for policy-making. Using a fixed effects panel data methodology and a sample of eighteen EU countries, we find that a 1 % increase in solar PV installed capacity and in electricity production from renewable sources has a positive impact on GDP of 0.0248 and 0.0061 %, respectively. We also conclude that a 1 % growth on greenhouse gas emissions positively affects GDP by 0.3106 %. Further evidence reveals that, in terms of country-specific analysis, Germany, France, Italy and the UK have the most significant estimations for fixed effects. In fact, Germany is a solar PV technology producer, France has a very active nuclear sector, with little pressure for both renewables development and CO2 reductions, Italy had in this period a strong governmental support to this sector, and the UK has a strong connection between the solar PV and the industry sectors.  相似文献   

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