全球变暖对人类健康的影响与对策研究

全球变暖是当前人类所面临的一个非常严重的环境问题。全球变暖等环境问题的产生是与人类的各种活动息息相关的，环境的恶化必将给人类的健康带来严重的后果。本文吸收了较新的科学发现对全球变暖成因进行了阐述；综合该领域近年的研究进展，将全球变暖对人类健康的影响纳为三个方面，并作了比较详尽的分析；从多个方面探讨了应对策略。     

The effect of intergroup comparison on willingness to perform sustainable behavior

The present research examines the effects of intergroup comparison on willingness to perform sustainable behavior. In Experiment 1, university students compared current students with past or future students, and then completed measures of willingness to perform sustainable behavior. Participants who compared to past students reported more willingness to perform sustainable behavior than those who compared to future students. In Experiment 2, university students again compared current students with past or future students and completed measures of sustainable beliefs and willingness to perform sustainable behavior. Participants who compared to past students reported more willingness to perform sustainable behavior than those who compared to future students. This effect was mediated by strengthened sustainable beliefs. The results show that intergroup comparison can be strategically employed to promote motivation to perform sustainable behavior.     

The injustice of climate change: voices from Africa

Farmers and pastoralists in Africa are remarkably consistent across countries in how they report climate is changing. These changes are still relatively small but, combined with the effects of chronic poverty, disease and environmental degradation, are already having severe human consequences. The changes are consistent with what is expected to occur due to man-made global warming and will increase. Women are especially impacted. Africa is least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions, but will suffer some of the most damaging consequences. Adaptation is essential. This will require finance from international sources. However, there is much African governments can and should do to start. Boosting adaptation to current climatic variability and shocks and tackling poverty will bring benefits today and for the future.     

The effects of large-scale afforestation and climate change on water allocation in the Macquarie River catchment,NSW, Australia

Widespread afforestation has been proposed as one means of addressing the increasing dryland and stream salinity problem in Australia. However, modelling results presented here suggest that large-scale tree planting will substantially reduce river flows and impose costs on downstream water users if planted in areas of high runoff yield. Streamflow reductions in the Macquarie River, NSW, Australia are estimated for a number of tree planting scenarios and global warming forecasts. The modelling framework includes the Sacramento rainfall-runoff model and IQQM, a streamflow routing tool, as well as various global climate model outputs from which daily rainfall and potential evaporation data files have been generated in OzClim, a climate scenario generator. For a 10% increase in tree cover in the headwaters of the Macquarie, we estimate a 17% reduction in inflows to Burrendong Dam. The drying trend for a mid-range scenario of regional rainfall and potential evaporation caused by a global warming of 0.5 degree C may cause an additional 5% reduction in 2030. These flow reductions will decrease the frequency of bird-breeding events in Macquarie Marshes (a RAMSAR protected wetland) and reduce the security of supply to irrigation areas downstream. Inter-decadal climate variability is predicted to have a very significant influence on catchment hydrologic behaviour. A further 20% reduction in flows from the long-term historical mean is possible, should we move into an extended period of below average rainfall years, such as occurred in eastern Australia between 1890 and 1948. Because current consumptive water use is largely adapted to the wetter conditions of post 1949, a return to prolonged dry periods would cause significant environmental stress given the agricultural and domestic water developments that have been instituted.     

Perceptions of climate change on the Island of Providencia

Climate change-related impacts have the capacity to substantially influence Small Island Developing States (SIDS) in the Caribbean. Currently, many SIDS are engaged in large-scale vulnerability assessments that aim to identify, analyse, and inform solutions to mitigate climate change-related impacts. Many of these assessments, while useful, place little emphasis on the local stakeholders' perceptions of climate change. One such Caribbean community impacted by climate-related change is Providence Island in Colombia. Using a vulnerability assessment framework (Marshall, P.A. et al. 2010. A framework for social adaptation to climate change: sustaining tropical coastal communities and industries. Gland: IUCN Publication Services), researchers interviewed island residents (N = 23) about their perceptions of climate change, impacts on the local environment, and how the island community may adapt. All interviews were transcribed and analysed using a priori and open coding to identify patterns of and relationships between stakeholders' responses. Results indicate that local perceptions of climate change are linked to (1) environmental knowledge, (2) environmental awareness, attitudes, and beliefs, and (3) perceptions of risk. Implications for local adaptive strategies, education, communication, and suggestions for engagement at the local level are discussed.     

The future of water in Australia: The potential effects of climate change and ozone depletion on Australian water quality,quantity and treatability

Water is a resource that is essential for all life on Earth. An exponentially growing human population, in addition to unprecedented industrial and technological development, threaten the availability and quality of this resource. Climate change and ozone depletion are two major environmental problems facing mankind today. These problems have the potential to further strain currently available freshwater resources. Recent research has shown that climate change and ozone depletion are linked phenomena and their interaction exacerbates their impact. Changes in precipitation, surface runoff, solar UV radiation, temperatures, and evaporation are some of the predicted outcomes of climate change and ozone depletion. They influence the biogeochemical cycles and aquatic ecosystems in lakes and rivers, and alter the character of natural organic matter (NOM) and, consequently, they have the potential to affect the quality, quantity and treatability of our water resources. Given these uncertainties, and the need to mitigate the consequences of climate change and ozone depletion, the issues of changing water quality, quantity and treatability cannot be ignored by Australian governments and water utilities.     

The greenhouse gas balance of the Province of Siena

There is a profound debate over how to assign greenhouse gas (GHG) responsibilities; therefore, we have decided to follow IPCC guidelines, as they offer the only standardized method. We have identified each type of greenhouse emission and its level of absorption. We have studied the province and its districts and municipalities. We have determined that the energy sector is that with the highest level of emissions, even if the per capita emissions of the Province of Siena are very low. This is caused by a very low level of industrialization and the presence of a local geothermal production of energy. In order to highlight this aspect, we have considered scenarios both with and without geothermal production. Our research was then focused on single districts (groups of homogenous municipalities) and municipalities, where we found great differences among the greenhouse emissions of the areas. We have constructed a map of the greenhouse emissions of the whole province. It has been interesting to note that there are 14 municipalities with net negative emissions, seven with low positive emissions, 12 with medium positive emissions and three with elevated positive emissions. These latter correspond to the main city and to two of the most industrialized municipalities.     

The impact of climate change on the benefit of a rain barrel sharing network

The assessment of the impact of climate change depends not only on quantitative changes in precipitation but also system characteristics that can be changed and enhanced. This study investigated the effect of building the shared network of a rainwater harvesting system as an adaptation to climate change scenarios. The performance of a rain barrel network under three climate change scenarios and three global circulation models (GCM) is examined. A sample community composed of four prospective users with individual storage is tested with various forms of shared connections. Most importantly, the results show that the benefit from shared rain barrels greatly increases under the climate change conditions compared with the historical rainfall data. Especially, for high reliabilities, the results indicate that the benefit of a rain barrel network increases under future climate change scenarios, whereas it does not show apparent improvement for low reliabilities. However, the performance of a rain barrel network is highly dependent on location and climate change scenarios. In contrast, the GCM does not considerably affect the performance of the shared network. The results of this study highlight the needs to establish sharing networks of rainwater harvesting systems under the climate change conditions, which would significantly increase the benefit of the entire community.     

The contribution of ice cover to sediment resuspension in a shallow temperate lake: possible effects of climate change on internal nutrient loading

The effect of ice cover on sediment resuspension and internal total P (Tot-P) loading was studied in the northern temperate Kirkkoj?rvi basin in Finland. The gross sedimentation and resuspension rates were estimated with sediment traps during ice-cover and ice-free periods. After ice break, the average gross sedimentation rate increased from 1.4 to 30.0 g dw m(-2) d(-1). Resuspension calculations showed clearly higher values after ice break as well. Under ice cover, resuspension ranged from 50 to 78% of the gross sedimentation while during the ice-free period it constituted from 87 to 97% of the gross sedimentation. Consequently, the average resuspension rate increased from 1.0 g dw m(-2) d(-1) under ice-cover to 27.0 g dw m(-2) d(-1) after thaw, indicating the strong effect of ice cover on sediment resuspension. To estimate the potential effect of climate change on internal P loading caused by resuspension we compared the Tot-P loading calculations between the present climate and the climate with doubled atmospheric CO2 concentration relative to the present day values (ice cover reduced from current 165 to 105 d). The annual load increased from 7.4 to 9.4 g m(-2). In conclusion, the annual internal Tot-P loading caused by resuspension will increase by 28% in the Kirkkoj?rvi basin if the 2xCO2 climate scenario comes true.     

The Effect of Local Biomass Projects on Energy Balance and GHG Emission: A Life Cycle Approach

Emerging attention has been given to the use of biomass in local areas for its contribution to reducing fossil fuel dependence and mitigating global warming. The objective of the present study is to develop a method that quantitatively assesses the effects of local biomass projects on fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission. A practical method based on a life cycle approach is proposed and applied to a case of bioethanol project in Miyako Islands of Japan. The project is aiming to produce bioethanol from molasses within the islands, and to replace the entire gasoline consumed in the islands to E3 fuel (i.e., a mixture of 3% ethanol and 97% gasoline by volume). The assessment using the developed method revealed that, first, the complete shift from gasoline to E3 fuel allows for decreases in fossil fuel consumption and GHG emission. Second, the performance of the project is improved by the integration of the ethanol plant and the sugar factory. Moreover, the assessment found that, in small-scale bioethanol projects, the contribution of capital goods to life cycle fuel consumption and GHG emission is not negligible.     

Impact of climate change on food security of small islands: The case of Mauritius

This paper studies the implications of high food prices resulting from climate change on food security in small islands, using Mauritius as a case‐study. Climate change may adversely impact prices of agricultural commodities. The study derives and calculates the government costs and the welfare effects of an increase in the world price of rice on consumers in Mauritius. Using an equilibrium displacement model, this study finds that an increase in the price of rice by 35%, as predicted by the literature on climate change and rice prices, will result in an increase of 28.8% in government spending, representing the additional outlays to support the subsidy scheme for food security. Using 2012 as the baseline, the welfare analysis results suggest that consumer surplus for ration rice consumers increases by 626 million Mauritian Rupees (MUR) or US$18 million while consumer surplus decreases by MUR454 million (US$13 million) for basmati rice consumers.     

Institutional innovation in urban governance: The case of climate change adaptation

Urban governance systems need to be adaptive to deal with emerging uncertainties and pressures, including those related to climate change. Realising adaptive urban governance systems requires attention to institutions, and in particular, processes of institutional innovation. Interestingly, understanding of how institutional innovation and change occurs remains a key conceptual weakness in urban climate change governance. This paper explores how institutional innovation in urban climate change governance can be conceptualised and analysed. We develop a heuristic involving three levels: (1) “visible” changes in institutional arrangements, (2) changes in underlying “rules-in-use”, and (3) the relationship to broader “governance dilemmas”. We then explore the utility of this heuristic through an exploratory case study of urban water governance in Santiago, Chile. The approach presented opens up novel possibilities for studying institutional innovation and evaluating changes in governance systems. The paper contributes to debates on innovation and its effects in urban governance, particularly under climate change.     

Life cycle assessment of waste paper management: The importance of technology data and system boundaries in assessing recycling and incineration

The significance of technical data, as well as the significance of system boundary choices, when modelling the environmental impact from recycling and incineration of waste paper has been studied by a life cycle assessment focusing on global warming potentials. The consequence of choosing a specific set of data for the reprocessing technology, the virgin paper manufacturing technology and the incineration technology, as well as the importance of the recycling rate was studied. Furthermore, the system was expanded to include forestry and to include fossil fuel energy substitution from saved biomass, in order to study the importance of the system boundary choices. For recycling, the choice of virgin paper manufacturing data is most important, but the results show that also the impacts from the reprocessing technologies fluctuate greatly. For the overall results the choice of the technology data is of importance when comparing recycling including virgin paper substitution with incineration including energy substitution. Combining an environmentally high or low performing recycling technology with an environmentally high or low performing incineration technology can give quite different results. The modelling showed that recycling of paper, from a life cycle point of view, is environmentally equal or better than incineration with energy recovery only when the recycling technology is at a high environmental performance level. However, the modelling also showed that expanding the system to include substitution of fossil fuel energy by production of energy from the saved biomass associated with recycling will give a completely different result. In this case recycling is always more beneficial than incineration, thus increased recycling is desirable. Expanding the system to include forestry was shown to have a minor effect on the results. As assessments are often performed with a set choice of data and a set recycling rate, it is questionable how useful the results from this kind of LCA are for a policy maker. The high significance of the system boundary choices stresses the importance of scientific discussion on how to best address system analysis of recycling, for paper and other recyclable materials.     

The role of scale in integrating climate change adaptation and mitigation in cities

By using a scale framework, we examine how cross-scale interactions influence the implementation of climate adaptation and mitigation actions in different urban sectors. Based on stakeholder interviews and content analysis of strategies and projects relevant to climate adaptation and mitigation in the cities of Copenhagen and Helsinki, we present empirical examples of synergies, conflicts and trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation that are driven by the cross-scale interactions. These examples show that jurisdictional and institutional scales shape the implementation of adaptation and mitigation strategies, projects and tasks at the management scale, creating benefits of integrated solutions, but also challenges. Investigating the linkages between adaptation and mitigation through a scale framework provides new knowledge for urban climate change planning and decision-making. The results increase the understanding of why adaptation and mitigation are sometimes handled as two separate policy areas and also why attempts to integrate the two policies may fail.     

Effect of outdoor temperature, heat primes and anchoring on belief in global warming

It is generally acknowledged that global warming is occurring, yet estimates of future climate change vary widely. Given this uncertainty, when asked about climate change, it is likely that people’s judgments may be affected by heuristics and accessible schemas. Three studies evaluated this proposition. Study 1 revealed a significant positive correlation between the outdoor temperature and beliefs in global warming. Study 2 showed that people were more likely to believe in global warming when they had first been primed with heat-related cognitions. Study 3 demonstrated that people were more likely to believe in global warming and more willing to pay to reduce global warming when they had first been exposed to a high vs. a low anchor for future increases in temperature. Together, results reveal that beliefs about global warming (and willingness to take actions to reduce global warming) are influenced by heuristics and accessible schemas. Several practical implications are discussed.     

Global warming is breeding social conflict: The subtle impact of climate change threat on authoritarian tendencies

Climate change can increase societies’ propensity to conflict by changes in socio-structural conditions (e.g., resource scarcity, migration). We propose an additional, subtle, and general effect of climate change threat via increases in authoritarian attitudes. Three studies in Germany and the UK support this suggestion. Reminding participants of the adverse consequences climate change may have for their country increased the derogation of societal groups that may threaten the collective (e.g., criminals) as well as general authoritarian attitudes. Salient climate change threats also led to system justification and approval of system supporting groups (e.g., judges) in those people who were highly identified with their nation. We discuss the implications of these findings for the explanation of authoritarian attitudes and the question of how societies may cope with the subtle social psychological effects of climate change.     

Differences among model simulations of climate change on the scale of resource regions

The climate simulations from atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) are often used to analyze the potential effects of climate change on environmental resources. It has been demonstrated that there are differences among the simulations from various GCMs, on spatial scales ranging from global to regional. This paper quantifies the differences in temperature and precipitation simulated by three major GCMs for four specific regions: an agricultural region (the North American winter wheat belt), a hydrologic region (the Great Basin), a demographic region (the high-density population corridor of the northeast United States), and a political region (the state of Texas). Both the current (control) climate and the climatic response to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) are consideredIn each region, even when the data are averaged on a seasonal basis, marked differences occurred in the areal average climate simulated by the different GCMs for both the control climate and the doubled-CO₂ climate. Thus, climate impact studies based on the simulations of more than one GCM could easily yield a range of possible results     

Collective guilt mediates the effect of beliefs about global warming on willingness to engage in mitigation behavior

The present research examines whether collective guilt for an ingroup's collective greenhouse gas emissions mediates the effects of beliefs about the causes and effects of global warming on willingness to engage in mitigation behavior. In Study 1, we manipulate the causes and effects of global warming and then measure collective guilt. Results demonstrate that collective guilt for Americans' greenhouse gas emissions is stronger when participants believe that global warming is caused by humans and will have minor effects. Study 2 employs the same manipulations and then measures collective guilt and collective anxiety, as well as willingness to conserve energy and pay green taxes. This study replicates the effect from Study 1 and rules out collective anxiety as a plausible alternative mediator. Collective guilt for Americans' greenhouse emissions was the only reliable mediator of the effect of beliefs about global warming on willingness to engage in mitigation behaviors. The importance of collective guilt as a tool for promoting global warming mitigation is discussed.     

全球环境变化对土壤有机碳库影响的研究进展

全球环境变化对土壤生态系统有机碳库的影响是当前研究的热点。本文综述了大气CO2浓度升高、温度上升、氮沉降等环境因素变化对土壤有机碳输入与土壤呼吸可能的影响,介绍了关于全球环境变化对土壤有机碳库影响的研究手段及其存在的问题,并就今后研究土壤有机碳对全球变化的响应提出了几点建议。     

The overlooked role of New York City urban yards in mitigating and adapting to climate change

There is a dearth of research focusing on the role that urban residential open space plays in climate change adaptation, despite evidence suggesting that environmental benefits accrue when even small pockets of open space are made permeable and vegetated. In densely built New York City, there are 21,448?ha (53,000 acres) of such land. One city block with adjoining contiguous open space was investigated to quantify its existing environmental value and also its potential to provide enhanced services through redesign. The study block's open space was found to be 35% permeable and planted with 96 trees, storing 45,359?kg (100,000?lb) of carbon. Simulations conducted using the United States Environmental Protection Agency Stormwater Management Model contrasting normal, light, and heavy precipitation years suggested that increases in annual precipitation could be fully mitigated by reducing impervious surface cover by 25%. The preservation of the existing vegetated residential urban open space and the conversion of paved surfaces to a pervious condition both appear to be effective strategies for enhancing the city's ability to adapt to and mitigate for climate change.