中国东部海域发生海啸的可能性分析

由强地震引发的印度洋大海啸在短短几个小时内就演变成了一场巨大的人间惨剧。这样的2004年12月26日自然灾害,人类能不能预防?它的形成机制是什么?我国历史上发生过海啸吗?在未来我国哪些地区会发生海啸?就上述问题,作了可能性分析。印度洋海啸的发生可以说既是天灾,也是人祸。人类虽说还不能控制地震、海啸等天灾的发生,但可以通过预报等措施来减轻它们造成的损失。我国历史时期曾发生过多次海啸,台湾周围海域是海啸的高发区域,其次是大陆架区域,渤海是低发区域。在未来,东海、南海,特别是台湾岛附近海域具备产生海啸的条件,即海南、台湾存在成灾条件;其次是上海,广州,也存在潜在的海啸危险;沿海其它城市亦应居安思危。     

地震海啸数值模拟中海洋水深数据的敏感性研究

海洋水深数据是进行海啸数值模拟计算最基础的输入数据之一。目前可供使用的数据源较多,各种数据源之间的差异性以及数据自身误差是否会对海啸数值模拟产生影响值得关注。以中国南海为研究对象,以马尼拉海沟俯冲区为潜在震源区,研究了水深数据的数据源差异性以及数据自身误差对于地震海啸数值模拟的敏感性。结果表明,在开阔的外海海域,不同数据源之间的水深数据差异对于海啸数值模拟的影响可忽略;水深数据自身误差对于数值模拟的海啸波幅值的影响不明显,但对于其相位则存在一定的影响。综合而言,目前开放的海洋水深数据对在开阔的外海海域的海啸传播数值模拟是满足要求的。     

南海海域地震海啸潜在危险的探析

本文对南海海域的海底地形地貌、海水深度、地质构造格局、断裂活动、地震和海啸的活动等进行分析,认为南海北、西、南以及中部都不具备发生地震海啸的基本条件.而南海东部边缘的台湾南部～菲律宾以西的马尼拉海沟,不仅具备发生地震海啸的条件,而且是南海亚板块向菲律宾板块的俯冲带,强震活动频繁且倾滑型或具有倾滑分量的走滑型地震比例很高,同时历史上也曾发生多次海啸,是南海最有可能引发地震海啸的潜在地区.     

中国的地震海啸及其预警服务

本文概述中国历史上地震海啸的发生情况,讨论了中国受远洋地震海啸影响的可能性,重点介绍了1992年初发生在海南岛近海的,首次由仪器记录到的极为鲜见的一次地震海啸,最后叙述了目前中国地震海啸预警的作业力式。     

苏门答腊海域海啸地震及地壳深部结构

近10年来苏门答腊俯冲带大震频发,并引发灾难性海啸,使之成为全球关注的焦点。特别是2004年和2012年的两次大震所带来的科学问题在许多方面超出现有认识。国际上对苏门答腊地区已开展了大量的地质学、地球物理学等多方面的调查研究,应用了许多新方法并取得了许多新认识。解读苏门答腊的构造背景和地质演化史对于认识俯冲型大地震的产生机理是必要的,对此类地震的发生过程和规律的研究,对于理解海啸产生的条件和防灾减灾有十分重要的现实意义。本文对苏门答腊地区的地震活动和深部构造进行了详细分析,对近年关于该地区的世界性研究成果进行了总结,梳理出若干亟待研究的科学问题,进而提出开展苏门答腊俯冲带地震3D层析成像的具体实施路线。     

海啸波近岸共振响应的数值模拟及分析

应用有限差分方法求解非线性浅水长波方程,建立了海啸波产生和传播的二维数值模型;对太平洋地震引起的夏威夷群岛海啸波进行模拟,并将模拟结果和测站实测值进行比较,验证了模型的正确性。利用快速傅里叶变换对数值模拟结果进行谱分析,得到整个计算区域的能量谱分布,并给出了发生能量聚集的位置及相应的谱峰周期。讨论了海啸波传播到近岸时可能产生的共振响应现象,发现海啸波和近岸的共振响应不仅与近岸复杂地形有关,还与海啸波传播到近岸时的波浪入射方向有关。     

中国的海啸灾害

从海啸的物理和发生条件分析了中国海啸的危险性：渤海、黄海和东海发生本地海啸的可能性很小；中国东部沿海受来自太平洋方面海啸的影响也很小；对中国东南沿海有较大影响的海啸发源地主要在南方，它们是菲律宾西侧的大地震、印度尼西亚巽他海峡的火山喷发以及中国南海的大型海底滑坡。虽然中国的海岸受海啸影响的可能性不大，但对于浪高5m的2级海啸而言，受到威胁的沿海地区的GDP占全国近1／4。从成灾的角度来看，小海啸大灾难的情况是有可能的。     

中国东南沿海城市海啸灾害风险评估

中国东南沿海地区是人口聚集、经济发达的区域,但附近海域存在有多个潜在海啸源,海啸灾害风险不容忽视。基于灾害系统理论,本文应用概率海啸危险性分析（PTHA）模拟沿海地区在不同重现期下的最大海啸波幅分布。同时构建了东南沿海地区承灾体暴露性和脆弱性评价指标体系,综合考虑海啸危险性以及承灾体暴露性和脆弱性的分析结果作为海啸灾害风险评估方案。结果表明,珠江三角洲地区沿海城市处于海啸高风险,如香港、澳门,重现期为2000年时,最大海啸波幅接近3 m,承灾体的暴露性属于最高水平,脆弱性水平较低。靠近台湾海峡的福建省区域部分城市处于较高风险水平,如泉州、厦门等,重现期为2000年时,最大海啸波幅超过2 m,承灾体的暴露性和脆弱性都属于较高水平。     

以科学的态度面对灾害

3月11日,日本本州岛附近海域发生9.0级强烈地震,这次地震引发了大规模的海啸,造成大量人员伤亡。而在所有的次生灾害中,最为严重的是因地震海啸引起的福岛核电站核泄漏事故。随着核泄漏危机反复升级,     

地震海啸:离我们有多远

2011年3月11日发生在日本本州岛附近海域的9.0级强烈地震,又一次引发了海啸,一时间,3米多高的黑浪滚滚,肆无忌惮地冲向陆地,冲倒建筑物,冲毁桥梁、机场,场面极其惨烈。     

从印度洋地震海啸看中国的巨灾风险

2004年12月26日印度洋海啸给沿岸国家造成了严重灾难,其主要原因是缺乏必要的防范。中国历史上巨灾频发,今后仍存在比较严重的巨灾威胁。预测我国有11个巨灾高风险区,巨灾种类主要为特大洪水、大地震、强台风和特大风暴潮以及大区域持续性严重干旱。建立巨灾防御体系是今后我国减灾工作的重心。     

Ocean waves and roadside spirits: Thai health service providers' post-tsunami psychosocial health

A massive earthquake off the west coast of Sumatra in Indonesia triggered a tsunami on 26 December 2004. At least five million people around the world were affected, and the total number of deaths exceeded 280,000. In Thailand, the tsunami struck six southern provinces, where the disaster's immediate impact was catastrophic. Based on ethnographic fieldwork in Phang Nga Province (2007), this paper provides an overview of the disaster's psychosocial consequences for Thai health service providers, the vast majority of whom were bypassed by regional post-tsunami mental health initiatives. The available tsunami literature only briefly attends to health providers' experience of professional 'burn-out', rather than explores the tsunami's wide spectrum of psychosocial effects. This research aims to remedy such oversights through 'critical medical' and 'interpretive phenomenological' analysis of the diverse and culturally-situated ways in which health providers' experienced the tsunami. The paper concludes by arguing for disaster-related psychosocial interventions to involve health providers explicitly.     

Community resilience and urban planning in tsunami-prone settlements in Chile

Urban planning can serve to minimise the effects of a tsunami and enhance community resilience. This study explores to what extent urban planning has addressed tsunami resilience in four villages on Chile's South Pacific coast, each of which was struck by tsunamis in 1960, 2010, and 2015. Through a detailed policy review and semi-structured interviews with residents, this paper analyses whether tsunami mitigation policies were incorporated into regional and local planning tools. It finds that although the government proposed relocation to tsunami-safe areas after the tsunami of 1960, urban development continued mainly in tsunami inundation zones—in the context of weak local planning frameworks and in the absence of community participation. In only one of the four case studies did participatory planning bring about the relocation of an entire village to a safe location. This paper concludes that incorporating participatory risk zone planning into urban planning enhances tsunami resilience.     

Remote sensing-based neural network mapping of tsunami damage in Aceh, Indonesia

In addition to the loss of human life, the tsunami event of 26 December 2004 caused extensive damage to coastal areas. The scale of the disaster was such that remote sensing may be the only way to determine its effects on the landscape. This paper presents the results of a neural network-based mapping of part of the region of Aceh, Sumatra. Before-and-after satellite imagery, combined with a novel neural network methodology, enabled a characterisation of landscape change. The neural network technique used a threshold of acceptance for identification, in combination with a bootstrapped identification method for identifying problem pixels. Map analysis allowed identification of urban areas that were inaccessible by road, and which aid agencies could therefore only reach by air or sea. The methods used provide a rapid and effective mapping ability and would be a useful tool for aid agencies, insurance underwriters and environmental monitoring.     

Lessons for long-term social recovery following the 2004 tsunami: Community,livelihoods, tourism and housing

The Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004 galvanized world attention like no other natural disaster before. Unprecedented amounts of aid were given and a record number of international aid agencies were involved in relief and recovery operations. Major reviews of the response to the disaster have suggested that the immediate relief effort was better than expected. However, weaknesses in the longer term recovery work were identified within months of the disaster and yet the same weaknesses were being confirmed four and five years later. Even though many studies have been published on the tsunami disaster there are still many lessons to be learnt, particularly in relation to social recovery as distinct from the restoration of destroyed or damaged infrastructure. This paper presents an overview of the findings of a study that was conducted over a period of four years across five different tsunami-affected local areas of Sri Lanka and southern India. The study focused on lessons to be learnt in relation to rebuilding community, restoring livelihoods, recreating an appropriate tourism industry and providing relevant housing and planned settlements for disaster survivors. The paper argues that ‘build back better’ is possible, but only if ‘asset replacement’ strategies are replaced by integrated physical and social planning to address local needs in culturally appropriate ways. Much of what the authors advocate may seem to be little more than ‘common sense’ and many of our findings echo those of many other post-tsunami evaluations. Yet patient and well-integrated approaches to disaster recovery are all too rare in a world that is experiencing so many natural disasters. Because the 2004 tsunami evoked an unprecedented global response it is important to ensure that the lessons of the recovery effort are clearly learnt and this paper aims to convert research findings into a clear strategy for long-term social recovery.     

Two solitudes: post‐tsunami and post‐conflict Aceh

In August 2005, after the devastating tsunami in the Indian Ocean Basin, a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for the cessation of hostilities was signed by Aceh's longstanding adversaries—the Government of Indonesia and the Free Aceh Movement (GAM). The tsunami was a major catalyst for ‘disaster diplomacy’—international political pressure, which, this paper argues, was an important ingredient in creating conditions for the MoU, although the situation within Aceh also shaped the peace process. Based on interviews conducted in 2006 and 2007 with government officials, GAM representatives and fighters, and non‐governmental organization staff in Aceh, this paper finds that assistance for tsunami survivors far exceeds that available for conflict survivors and ex‐combatants. The formation of these two solitudes—the tsunami‐affected and the conflict‐affected—compounds challenges for sustaining peace in Aceh. This research points to an enduring lack of livelihoods for former fighters and conflict victims that may threaten a sustainable peace.