The optimal dam site selection using a group decision-making method through fuzzy TOPSIS model

The complex and controversial task of selecting a dam site in a river basin can be successfully achieved using science-informed multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques. In this paper, we describe the application of the group fuzzy TOPSIS model for optimal ranking of the case study of Kandoleh dam sites in Kermanshah province, Iran, involving 18 input criteria. In this study, decision-making committee was made up of 20 involved decision makers. The comments of four non-biased, external experts in dam site selection were also used. The triangular fuzzy numbers were used to apply experts’ opinions on the selection criteria. In total, four alternative sites were assessed based on the technical, economic, social and environmental considerations and the data were analyzed using fuzzy TOPSIS MCDM model. Ranking results were compared with multi-criteria decision-making models, including the ELimination and Choice Expressing the REality and simple additive weighting. This logical, open and transparent framework provides a science-informed decision-making approach for complex problems such as optimal dam site selection. Finally, using sensitivity analysis, local studies and group discussions, we demonstrated the multiple benefits of the proposed novel method for a science-informed, open and transparent method for optimal ranking of the dam site candidates.     

Prioritizing groundwater remediation policies: a fuzzy compatibility analysis decision aid

The implementation of groundwater remediation strategies in contaminated areas includes not only a cost-benefit analysis and an environmental risk assessment but also another type of study called compatibility analysis. A compatibility analysis targets the interactions between remediation technologies and site characteristics, such as the types of active contaminants and their concentrations, soil composition and geological features, etc. The purpose of this analysis is to identify the most compatible remediation plan for the contaminated site. In this paper, we introduce a decision support system for the prioritization of remediation plans based on their estimated compatibility index. As this model receives data in terms of linguistic judgments and experts' opinions, we use fuzzy sets theory to deal with these uncertainties. First, we break down the concept of compatibility into the measurable factors. Then by using a multiple-attribute decision-making (MADM) outline, we compute a factorial, regional and overall compatibility indicator for each plan. Finally, by comparing these generated indicators, we rank the remediation policies.     

The comparison of a revised Leopold matrix and fuzzy methods in environmental impact assessment,a case study: The construction of Al‐A'amiriya residential complex,Baghdad, Iraq

Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is an efficient method to recognize and alleviate the unfavorable and inevitable impacts of human activity on the environment. The EIA is dependent on expert opinions, which can be influenced by personal experience and knowledge. To evaluate this influence, we carried out EIA of 6,000 residential apartment units of Al‐A'amiriya, Baghdad, Iraq, using a revised Leopold matrix and fuzzy methods. The matrix results reflected the direct opinions of experts. The fuzzy method was developed according to the principles of expert comments. In the matrix method, the environmental impacts of each activity were evaluated by scores between −5 (very bad) to 5 (very good). The inputs to the fuzzy method were intensity and weather stability. The fuzzy estimation of the environmental impact was composed of a group of three values; P1 as the intensity, P2 as the extent, and P3 as the persistence. We gathered the expert opinions and used the Analytical Hierarchical Process to determine the weighting coefficient of each fuzzy anticipation. The matrix method was dependent on the expert opinions. The mean values of the matrix and P‐values in each column and row scores depict the impacts of a project on the environmental aspects and each element of construction on the environment. The comparison of the results indicated an average difference of 30% between the Leopold matrix and fuzzy methods. In regard to the availability and sufficiency of data, the difference was around 10%.     

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of agro-ecological modeling for saffron plant cultivation using GIS spatial decision-making methods

The main objective of this research is to model the uncertainty associated with GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) for crop suitability assessment. To achieve this goal, an integrated approach using GIS-MCDA in association with Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and global sensitivity analysis (GSA) were applied for Saffron suitability mapping in East-Azerbaijan Province in Iran. The results of this study indicated that integration of MCDA with MCS and GSA could improve modeling precision by reducing data variance. Results indicated that applying the MCS method using the local training data leads to computing the spatial correlation between criteria weights and characteristics of the study area. Results of the GSA method also allow us to obtain the priority of criteria and identify the most important criteria and the variability of outputs under uncertainty conditions for model inputs. The findings showed that, commonly used primary zoning methods, without considering the interaction effects of variables, had significant errors and uncertainty in the output of MCDA-based suitability models, which should be minimized by the advanced complementarity of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis.     

WATER QUALITY CONCERNS AND REGULATORY CONTROLS FOR NONSTORM WATER DISCHARGES TO STORM DRAINS1

ABSTRACT: Nonstorm water discharges to municipal separate storm sewer systems (MS4s) are notable for spatial and temporal variability in volume, pollutant type, pollutant concentration, and activity of origin. The objective of this paper was to determine whether current technical knowledge and existing U.S. policy support an improved regulatory approach. The proposed policy would use type of discharge as a regulatory basis, merging the concepts of allowability of de minimis discharges and type-based statewide consistent rules. Specific research objectives were to comprehensively identify discharge types, characterize their prevalence in California, analyze relevant local and regional regulatory guidelines, and systematically evaluate opinions of experts about potential water quality impacts. Results demonstrate nonstorm water discharges were widespread in at least one sector, industrial facilities subject to a state permit; one discharge for every four facilities was reported in 1995, even though the permit explicitly prohibits such discharges. Clear consensus exists for minimal water quality concern for some discharge types when considering both municipal guidelines and experts’ opinions. In particular, condensate from a wide range of equipment and discharges from fire fighting equipment testing were found to be of low concern. Discharge types with consensus high concern were largely limited to discharges prohibited under other regulations, such as wastewater and hazardous waste management controls. Some discharge types where no consensus was identified, such as landscape irrigation, nevertheless generated concern for water quality impacts and appear to be relatively widespread. Available information supports technical feasibility of the proposed policy because at least some discharge types show strong consensus for de minimis impacts among regulatory guidelines and opinions of technical experts.     

INPUT-OUTPUT AND BENEFIT-COST ANALYSIS FOR WATER RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS1

ABSTRACT: The proper use of input-output for estimating regional benefits and costs is described for instances where project outputs go to final or intermediate demand. How that estimation is affected by the method used to value the primary project benefits and by the sector content of the input-output model compared to the primary sector affected are discussed as are points of terminological confusion between the two methods.     

A weed risk assessment model for use as a biosecurity tool evaluating plant introductions

New plant taxa from around the world continue to be imported into Australia and New Zealand. Many of these taxa have the potential to become agricultural or environmental weeds and this risk needs to be assessed before allowing their entry. A weed risk assessment system is described that uses information on a taxon's current weed status in other parts of the world, climate and environmental preferences, and biological attributes. The system is designed to be operated by quarantine personnel via a user-friendly computer interface.The model was tested against experts' scores for weediness for 370 taxa present in Australia, representing both weeds and useful taxa from agriculture, the environment, and other sectors. The model was judged on its ability to correctly ‘reject’ weeds, ‘accept’ non-weeds, and generate a low proportion of taxa which could not be decisively categorised, termed ‘evaluate’. More than 70% of the taxa were rejected or accepted. All taxa classified as serious weeds, and most minor weeds, were rejected or required further evaluation, while only 7% of non-weeds were rejected. The model was modified to New Zealand conditions and evaluated against the opinions of several groups of experts and against economic measures. The model produced a weediness score very similar to the mean of the experts scores. The latter were highly variable: agriculturalists tended to accept known weeds, conservationists tended to reject most adventive taxa, and only botanists produced scores similar to the model. The model scores also tended to be independent of economic value as measured in this study. The model could be adapted for use as a screening tool in any region of the world.     

论我国环保产业发展对策的体系建设

针对我国环保产业存在的问题,提出从宏观层次上,政府是环保产业的最初牵引力量和实施保证主体;从微观层次上,企业是环保产业最终策动力和执行主体;产品的消费者,即公众是环保产业最终影响力和舆论主体。只有宏观层次和微观层次紧密地结合起来,形成互动作用,才有可能有效地促进环保产业的发展。     

Informed and uninformed public opinions on CO2 capture and storage technologies in the Netherlands

Two research methods were used in this study to analyze the awareness and perception of the Dutch general public regarding Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS). In an Information-Choice Questionnaire (ICQ), a representative sample of the Dutch public (n = 995) was provided with all information on attributes of six CCS options, which experts deemed necessary to come to well-considered and well-informed opinions. A traditional questionnaire was used simultaneously (n = 327) to study uninformed evaluations of these technologies. The results showed that the Dutch public is mostly unaware of CCS and has little knowledge about how current energy use causes global warming. Uninformed respondents are still inclined to give their opinion however, which results in unpredictive, easily changeable opinions. ICQ respondents who processed information on attributes of CCS options were likely to base their option evaluations on this information, though not entirely. All in all, the results of the ICQ suggest that, after processing information deemed necessary by experts, Dutch people reluctantly agree with large scale implementation of each of the six CCS options.     

A resilience-based approach for comparing expert preferences across two large-scale coastal management programs

This report proposes a method for assessing resilience-building components in coastal social–ecological systems. Using the proposed model, the preferences of experts in Masan Bay (South Korea) and Puget Sound (USA) are compared. A total of 30 management objectives were determined and used to build a hierarchic tree designed using the principles of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Surveys were performed with 35 Puget Sound experts using face-to-face interviews and with 28 Masan Bay experts by mail. The results demonstrate that the legal objective, which enables legislation, was the highest preferred component in both regions. The knowledge translation variable was also given a high preference score in both regions. An analysis of variance (ANOVA) showed that the Puget Sound experts significantly favored attention to education, habitat restoration and species protection objectives in comparison to the Masan Bay experts. The Masan Bay experts placed greater emphasis on legislation and the type of institutional design than did the Puget Sound experts. Using cluster analysis, four distinct groups of respondents were independently identified in Puget Sound and three groups were identified in Masan Bay. One unique subgroup in the Puget Sound experts group, which was characterized by its high preferences for habitat restoration and species protection, was not observed in Masan Bay. Demographic variables (length of career and role in coastal issue) failed to account for the differences in groupings and preferences in either region, except for the variable ‘favoring information source’ in the Puget Sound group. This finding implies that the demographic information was not related to differences in group opinions in both regions. The analysis framework presented here was effective in identifying expert preferences regarding the overall structure and emphasis in coastal management programs. Thus, this framework can be applied towards coastal policy development.     

Applying voting theory in natural resource management: a case of multiple-criteria group decision support

Voting theory has a lot in common with utility theory, and especially with group decision-making. An expected-utility-maximising strategy exists in voting situations, as well as in decision-making situations. Therefore, it is natural to utilise the achievements of voting theory also in group decision-making. Most voting systems are based on a single criterion or holistic preference information on decision alternatives. However, a voting scheme called multicriteria approval is specially developed for decision-making situations with multiple criteria. This study considers the voting theory from the group decision support point of view and compares it with some other methods applied to similar purposes in natural resource management. A case study is presented, where the approval voting approach is introduced to natural resources planning and tested in a forestry group decision-making process. Applying multicriteria approval method was found to be a potential approach for handling some challenges typical for forestry group decision support. These challenges include (i) utilising ordinal information in the evaluation of decision alternatives, (ii) being readily understandable for and treating equally all the stakeholders in possession of different levels of knowledge on the subject considered, (iii) fast and cheap acquisition of preference information from several stakeholders, and (iv) dealing with multiple criteria.     

INFLUENCES ON RESIDENTIAL YARD CARE AND WATER QUALITY: TUALATIN WATERSHED,OREGON1

ABSTRACT: The Tualatin is the first watershed in Oregon to implement the Total Maximum Daily Load provisions of the Clean Water Act to deal with nonpoint source pollution. Local officials cite residential yard care practices as potential contributors to nonpoint source pollution in the basin. Qualitative and quantitative methods, including observation of yard maintenance styles, suggest behaviors potentially harmful to water quality and conservation. Yard maintenance is influenced by the importance of neighborhood appearance and concern for aesthetics. These concerns stimulate residents to water, fertilize, and apply weed control at more frequent intervals than yard care experts recommend. Better understanding of the effects that relations with neighbors and yard maintenance knowledge have on residential yard care practices can help improve water quality.     

Iran's Water Crisis: Cultural, Political, and Ethical Dimensions

By the summer of 2001, most of Iranhad been suffering a three-year drought, theworst in recent history. Water rationing was inplace in Tehran and other cities, and largeproportions of the country's crops andlivestock were perishing. Yet many academicsand other experts in Iran insist that the watercrisis is only partly drought-related, andclaim that mismanagement of water resources isthe more significant cause. Underlying thisdiscussion is a complex of overlapping yetoften conflicting ethical systems – Iranian,Islamic, and modernist/industrialist – whichare available to inform water policy in Iran. Areview of the various arguments about thenature of the crisis and the range of solutionsthat have been proposed, including precedentsfrom traditional Iranian water management andthe ethics of water use in Islamic law,suggests that Iran's own cultural heritageprovides alternatives to wholesale adoption ofWestern models.     

WATER QUALITY MODEL CALIBRATION: A COMPARISON OF INPUT AND OUTPUT ERROR CRITERIA1

ABSTRACT: A common framework for the analysis of water resources systems is the input-parameter-output representation. The system, described by its parameters, is driven by inputs and responds with outputs. To calibrate (estimate the parameters) models of these systems requires data on both inputs and outputs, both of which are subject to random errors. When one is uncertain as to whether the predominant source of error is associated with inputs or outputs, uncertainty also exists as to the correct specification of a calibration criterion. This paper develops and analyzes two alternative least squares criteria for calibrating a numerical water quality model. The first criterion assumes that errors are associated with inputs while the second assumes output errors. Statistical properties of the resulting estimators are examined under conditions of pure input or output error and mixed error conditions from a theoretical perspective and then using simulated results from a series of Monte Carlo experiments.     

Integrating Local and Scientific Knowledge: An Example in Fisheries Science

Attempting to predict the spatial dynamics fish stocks, as required for management, is an ominous task given our incomplete understanding of biological and ecological mechanisms underpinning behavioral responses of fish. Large gaps still exist in our basic scientific knowledge. Nonetheless, the knowledge of fishers and fishery managers is not incorporated into our scientific analyses, even though such information is rich in observation since knowledge of fish behavior and distribution is a prerequisite for their profession. Combining such observations with more conventional scientific studies and theoretical interpretations provides a means by which we may bridge some gaps in our knowledge. Presented here is an example of how both local and scientific knowledge can be integrated in a heuristic model. The model, CLUPEX, is developed in the framework of a fuzzy logic expert system and uses linguistic statements written in natural language to capture and combine knowledge sources in the form of IF … THEN rules. The rules are inferred from interviews with experts and fishery professionals including fishers, fishery managers, scientists, and First Nations people. The knowledge base, comprised of the set of rules, is flexible in the sense that it can easily be modified to add additional information or change current information. Using input pertaining to biotic and abiotic environmental conditions, CLUPEX uses the rules to provide quantitative and qualitative predictions on the structure, dynamics and mesoscale distribution of shoals of migratory adult herring during different life stages of their annual life cycle.     

Science-practice interactions linked to climate adaptation in two contexts: municipal planning and forestry in Sweden

This paper examines the science-practice interface in the process of adapting to climate change in society. This paper analyses science-based stakeholder dialogues with climate scientists, municipal officers and private individual forest owners in Sweden, and examines how local experts both share scientific knowledge and experience and integrate it into their work strategies and practices. The results demonstrate how local experts jointly conceptualise climate adaptation, how scientific knowledge is domesticated among local experts in dialogue with scientific experts, the emergence of anchoring devices, and the boundary-spanning functions that are at work in the respective sectors.     

The completion of the preparatory work for the UN Convention on the Law of International Watercourses

This article deals with the debate of the UN General Assembly on the establishment of a framework convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses. The debate took place in two sessions, held in October 1996 and March/April 1997, with the final voting and adoption of the Convention on 21 May 1997.
The present article concentrates on the second part of the negotiations and the finalization of the text. Salient aspects are analyzed, such as the normative function of the Convention, the two important principles of "equitable utilization" and the "no-harm rule", as well as peaceful settlement of disputes. The preparatory work concerning these provisions is examined, and some general consideration is given to the results achieved.
The present article is a sequel to the account by the same author, published in NRF 21:2, which deals with the first part of the debate and outlines the main legal and political issues at stake. The original text of the ILC articles is also included in the Special Issue on Transboundary Waters.
Although the author was a member of the Italian Delegation to the Working Group, the opinions expressed in the present article are his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Italian Government. The author apologizes for any inaccuracies in the presentation of the views of other delegations in this article.     

Identification of river water quality using the fuzzy synthetic evaluation approach.

Proper identification of water quality conditions in a river system based on limited observations is an essential task for meeting the goals of environmental management. Various classification methods have been used for estimating the changing status and usability of surface water in river basins. However, a discrepancy frequently arises from the lack of a clear distinction between each water utilisation mode, the uncertainty in the quality criteria employed and the vagueness or fuzziness embedded in the decision-making output values. Owing to inherent imprecision, difficulties always exist in some conventional methodologies when describing integrated water quality conditions with respect to various chemical constituents, biological aspects, nutrients, and aesthetic qualities. This paper presents a comparative study using three fuzzy synthetic evaluation techniques to assess water quality conditions in comparison to the outputs generated by conventional procedures such as the Water Quality Index (WQI). Based on a set of data collected at seven sampling stations, a case study for the Tseng-Wen River system in Taiwan was used to demonstrate their application potential. The findings clearly indicate that the techniques may successfully harmonise inherent discrepancies and interpret complex conditions. A further, newly developed fuzzy synthetic evaluation approach described in this paper might also be useful for verifying water quality conditions for the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) program and be helpful for constructing an effective water quality management strategy.     

Perceptions of emission reduction potential in air transport: a structural equation modeling approach

This study employs a structural equation modeling (SEM) approach to identify the key perceptions that influence greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction potential (ERP) in air transport. It explores the correlation relationships between various perceptions and air transport GHG emission reduction potential. Personal approach and self-administered surveys were used to collect data from 249 aviation experts. The results of the SEM showed aircraft technology and design, aviation operations and infrastructure, socioeconomic and political measures, and alternative fuels and fuel properties are the key influencing perceptions for reducing GHG emissions. Aircraft technology and design had the strongest ERP, followed by aviation operations and infrastructure with a strong correlation between them. The structural model proved reliable and in agreement to identify the perceptions of the ERP. The outputs can be used to measure the level of knowledge and understanding about the ERP of air transport and can provide airlines with valuable information for designing appropriate air transport policies for emission reduction.