中国西部生态脆弱区产业结构调整的污染风险分析——以青海省为例

实现产业结构的调整升级是当今世界各国经济发展的普遍趋势,也是提升经济增长速度和水平的有效途径。青海省作为我国西部重要省份之一,不仅经济发展水平相对落后,而且生态环境也十分脆弱。随着西部大开发进程的不断推进,青海省经济加速发展,由此产生的污染风险也日趋提高。因此,研究青海省产业结构调整对提炼西部生态脆弱区协调经济增长与污染排放的关系并实现污染风险的有效监管具有重大意义。本文依据经济增长-环境质量回归模型研究了青海省产业结构升级与污染物排放的关系,发现青海省经济增长与污染物排放之间存在倒U型曲线关系。研究发现,青海省仍然处于污染物排放随经济增长而增长的阶段,且距离拐点仍有一定的距离。此外,本文分析了青海省不同产业随时间的变化趋势,虽然三大产业均有增长的态势,但是各占GDP比例变化却各不相同。其中,第一产业的比例不断下降,第二产业的比例不断增长,而第三产业在增长到一定比例后,有小幅减少的趋势。在此基础上,本文利用青海省不同产业占全国相同产业的比例,分析了青海省产业结构的变化趋势,并利用环境投入-产出模型计算了产业结构调整和升级过程中造成的污染物排放量,评价了产业结构升级可能带来的污染风险。虽然青海省第一产业占该区域GDP比例呈减少态势,但占全国比例并未发生明显变化,这表明了青海省农林牧渔业的发展趋势和速度基本与全国平均水平持平;第二产业占全国比例大部分呈减少的态势,而第三产业却有一定的增长态势,这在一定程度上反映了青海省产业发展正在向加大第三产业的发展并控制污染较严重的第二产业的发展的方向转变。产业结构的提升对不同产业污染物的排放也产生了不同的影响。其中,机械电子设备制造业、住宿餐饮和零售业和房地及租赁产业的提升导致了污染物排放小幅增长,而其他产业尤其是建筑业、金属制品业等的扩张则对污染物排放均有不同程度的抑制作用。因此,虽然其经济发展会在一定程度上加重环境污染风险,并且污染排放量会随经济的进一步发展而不断加大,但2002-2007年青海省产业结构变化对废水、废气等污染的排放产生了一定的控制作用,从而降低了青海省环境污染的风险。研究结论为青海省调整产业结构以抑制环境污染风险并保障区域经济发展和环境保护的协调提供重要的决策参考信息。     

A review on the human health impact of airborne particulate matter

Particulate matter (PM) is a key indicator of air pollution brought into the air by a variety of natural and human activities. As it can be suspended over long time and travel over long distances in the atmosphere, it can cause a wide range of diseases that lead to a significant reduction of human life. The size of particles has been directly linked to their potential for causing health problems. Small particles of concern include “inhalable coarse particles” with a diameter of 2.5 to 10 μm and “fine particles” smaller than 2.5 μm in diameter. As the source–effect relationship of PM remains unclear, it is not easy to define such effects from individual sources such as long-range transport of pollution. Because of the potent role of PM and its associated pollutants, detailed knowledge of their human health impacts is of primary importance. This paper summarizes the basic evidence on the health effects of particulate matter. An in-depth analysis is provided to address the implications for policy-makers so that more stringent strategies can be implemented to reduce air pollution and its health effects.     

江苏沿海滩涂地区农户经济行为研究

江苏海岸带是中国最重要的海岸带湿地之一。滩涂资源的可持续利用成为当前研究的焦点。农户是滩涂开发的微观经济活动的主体和相对独立的生产单位。农户的经济行为对滩涂开发和利用产生直接和重要的影响。以江苏省盐城市的射阳县、大丰市为例，选择3个典型村庄进行入户访谈式调查．在对220个农户进行了入户随机抽样调查的基础上，利用区域经济动力学原理Logisti模型和Cobb-Douglas生产函数。建立了农户经济行为对环境影响的数量经济模型。研究表明，滩涂区农户经济行为对滩涂环境压力的大小及类型具有直接影响。土地经营规模、土地利用类型、生产投入、投资意向、农户受教育水平等是产生影响的主要因素。找出滩涂资源利用中存在的问题和主要的环境压力在于：农户经济生产方式单一，产业结构不合理；农户教育水平较低，环境意识差；滩涂利用经济效率低．环境压力大；农户抗市场风险能力差。并提出了相应的对策和建议。     

The implications of new information and communication technologies for sustainability

This paper discusses the relationship of new information and communication technologies (ICTs) and sustainable development. It deconstructs popular myths about a sustainable information society. One myth is that telework has reduced the need to travel and hence environmental pollution. The reality is that teleworkers make up only a small share of the total workforce, telework can generate new social relationships and hence the need for more travelling, work-related travel produces only a small amount of the total carbon dioxide emissions, and that the total distance travelled per employee is constantly rising. Another myth is that information economy is weightless and dematerialized which reduces environmental impacts. The energy and resource intensities of the ICT sector are indeed lower than the one of the total economy. The ICT sector also emits less CO₂ than the total economy. But the ICT sector constitutes only a small portion of the total value added and fossil fuel combustion is still the dominant activity of modern industrial economies. Some stakeholders argue that virtual products allow resource, energy, and transport savings. But burning digital music on compact discs and DVDs, printing digital articles and books, etc. results in rebound effects that cause new material and energy impacts, computers have a low life span of 2–3 years, reusable and upgradeable computers and computer equipment are hardly used and might not be as profitable as non-reusable ones, computers are consuming much energy. Alternatives such as energy consumption labels on ICTs and green ICTs that consume less energy contradict dominant economic interests. A sustainable information society is a society that makes use of ICTs and knowledge for fostering a good life for all human beings of current and future generations by strengthening biological diversity, technological usability, economic wealth for all, political participation of all, and cultural wisdom. Achieving a sustainable information society costs, it demands a conscious reduction of profits by not investing in the future of capital, but the future of humans, society, and nature.     

Downscaling nonclimatic drivers for surface water vulnerabilities in the Elbe river basin

Aggregated consideration of both climate and socio-economic change in a coarse spatial resolution is a central feature for scenario development in global change research. Downscaling of the supposed aggregated changes is a necessary prerequisite for the assessments of global change at the regional scale. The present paper describes the method and results of an approach to develop and to apply scenarios of socio-economic change at a sub-national level, which are consistent with global change scenarios. National and regional models of economic and demographic development are used to regionalise drivers of socio-economic change. Scenario results are subsequently applied in order to analyse the impacts of socio-economic and climatic changes on water management issues in the Elbe river basin. Starting from global IPCC-Emissions Scenarios and taking up their key points, we formulate two scenarios for the German and Czech parts of the Elbe catchment areas. We present a system of demographic and economic models, designed to consistently project socio-economic developments at a national and sub-national level and, thus, to quantitatively illustrate our scenarios. The results show that in a scenario that assumes continued globalisation and emphasis on economic growth, export orientation will result in a comparatively high share of manufacturing. Growth spreads from centres to peripheral regions. Still, at the national level, the increase in population and employment will be modest and create little additional pressure, but water stress will be considerably stronger on a regional basis, namely in metropolitan areas such as Prague, Berlin and Hamburg. In a scenario where economic goals are balanced with ecologic and social ones, growth is weaker and the weight of the service sector increases more rapidly, thus easing the driving forces for overall water demand and pollution. However, as in this scenario regional metropolitan centres develop at the cost of peripheral regions, regional development is more selective and the driving forces for potential water stress will diverge spatially.     

The Clean Development Mechanism and Sustainable Development in China's Electricity Sector

Abstract

The Clean Development Mechanism, a flexibility mechanism contained in the Kyoto Protocol, offers China an important tool to attract investment in clean energy technology and processes into its electricity sector. The Chinese electricity sector places centrally in the country's economy and environment, being a significant contributor to the acid rain and air pollution problems that plague many of China's cities and regions, and therefore a focus of many related energy and environmental policies. China's electricity sector has also been the subject of a number of economic analyses that have showed that it contains the highest potential for clean energy investment through the Clean Development Mechanism of any economic sector in China. This mechanism, through the active participation from investors in more industrialized countries, can help alleviate the environmental problems attributable to electricity generation in China through advancing such technology as wind electricity generation, clean coal technology, high efficient natural gas electricity generation, or utilization of coal mine methane. In this context, the Clean Development Mechanism also compliments a range of environmental and energy policies which are strategizing to encourage the sustainable development of China's economy.     

Economic Valuation of Health Impact of PM10 Pollution in Beijing from 2001 to 2006

In light of the practical need for research to inform policy in Beijing,this study evaluates the economic cost of the impact of PM10 pollution in Beijing from 2001 to 2006,taking health as the main impact,and mortality as the main outcome.Based on the literature review,this study adopts relatively conservative parameters as the basis for calculating the health impacts.It concludes that nearly 30% of mortality among registered residents above age 30 in Beijing can be attributed to PM10 pollution,and that the economic cost equals 0.8%-1.2% of the city's GDP over the same period.This is lower than the results of previous studies,but still high enough to warrant a commitment to solve the city's air pollution problem.     

The evaluation of the air quality impact of an incinerator by using MM5-CMAQ-EMIMO modeling system: North of Spain case study

The use of sophisticated air pollution modeling systems to evaluate the impact of different industrial plant emissions is currently done in an extensive way. MM5-CMAQ (PSU/NCAR and EPA, USA) is one of the most applicable air quality modeling systems to evaluate those impacts. In this contribution we present the methodology and results obtained when applying the MM5-CMAQ air quality modeling system for evaluating the potential impact of an incinerator in San Sebastián (Basque Country, Spain). We have used the EMIMO (UPM, Spain) emission model to simulate the emissions from biogenic and anthropogenic sources including traffic and tertiary sector sources. The study includes the air quality impact of a highway located near the incinerator named A8 and 6 industrial plants which already exist. The impact study has been compared with the results obtained from this highway impact and the 6 industrial plants which are normally operating during the last 30 years. The system has been prepared to simulate also Cadmium, Arsenic, Nickel, Lead and Benzo(a)pyrene air quality impacts. The PCDD/F air concentrations have been determined for the 16 toxic dioxins and furans as determined in the bibliography. The criteria pollutants such as CO, NOx, SO(2), PM(10) and O(3) have also been determined according to the different EU Directives which limit the values of such a pollutants for different periods of time.     

中国大气环境治理的新启示--来自武汉疫情管控期间的自然实验

在武汉疫情管控期间,企业经济活动和机动车活动水平明显大幅下降,大部分污染源基本停止排放,意味着在此期间全国各地区应该出现优良天气,但是事实上在我国部分地区却出现了严重雾霾天气,这种反预期现象引起人们的普遍关注,甚至怀疑我国大气环境治理是否存在失误。根据这种反预期现象,提出环境污染应当是由流量污染和存量污染共同决定的猜想。为验证这一猜想,分别假设了两种情况:第一种只有流量污染,第二种既有流量污染又有存量污染,并用武汉疫情管控前后的实际排放数据模拟得到空气质量状况,寻找雾霾形成的规律,然后与武汉疫情管控前后实际监测数据进行对比,确定反预期现象的原因。实际数据和模拟数据对比发现,实际情况与假设1不符,与假设2相符。据此认为,大气污染是由当期排放的污染与积累的存量污染共同决定。在此基础上,进一步分析存量污染造成的经济损失,分析表明:2007年被低估1.64亿元,到2017年被低估3.83亿元;在消散率为0.05、贴现率为0.01时,流量、存量和流量与存量损失的差额分别为6.5亿元、50.5亿元和44.0亿元,这意味着2007—2017年总的经济损失被低估44.0亿元。在消散率为0.3、贴现率为0.1时,流量、存量和流量与存量损失的差额分别为4.6亿元、10.5亿元和5.9亿元,这意味着2007—2017年总的经济损失被低估5.9亿元。研究发现,长期累积形成的存量污染是一个被忽视的大气污染源,从而解释了在武汉疫情管控期间低水平经济活动条件下仍然会出现重度大气污染的经验事实。其政策含义在于,制定反污染政策需要根据存量污染的特征进一步完善相关政策设计。     

The association between rural–urban migration flows and urban air quality in China

In light of the rapid urbanization of the world’s population over the past decades, there is a growing concern about the environmental impacts of urban population growth. Rural–urban migration is a particularly important component of the urbanization process in developing countries and is often considered to be detrimental to urban environmental conditions. However, few studies have explicitly examined the presumed negative impacts of in-migration on the natural environment of cities. The continuously increasing volume of rural–urban labor migration in China since the early 1980s has formed the largest population flow in world history. This study links the existing literature on population–environment and urbanization–environment interactions by empirically assessing the relationship between rural–urban migration and urban air conditions in China. A two-period (2004 and 2010) longitudinal dataset for the 113 key environmental protection cities of China was constructed based on multiple data sources. We applied the STIRPAT equation using conventional and spatial panel regression models to examine whether rural–urban migration flows were associated with air pollution in cities. Results show a strong negative association of in-migration with urban air quality even after controlling for the effects of other population, affluence, and technology factors. Findings from this research can contribute to a better understanding of the environmental consequences of rural–urban migration in China, with broader implications for sustainable development research and policies.     

Manufacturing SMEs doing it for themselves: developing,testing and piloting an online sustainability and eco-innovation toolkit for SMEs

ABSTRACT

Public discourse frequently cites the damaging activities of large organisations on global environmental issues, but smaller organisations are rarely, if ever, featured. Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) make up 99% of all businesses in the EU, cumulatively causing more industrial pollution and producing more waste than larger businesses. However, large companies are more likely to address sustainability issues than smaller ones. SMEs need help to change. In a collaborative approach, an online sustainability framework was developed to overcome the barriers contributing to the slow uptake in environmental management in SMEs. The views of owner-managers were incorporated throughout the development process. Best practice environmental tools and training were identified, which were designed in an SME-friendly way and made available online. This paper describes the development of the pilot Sustainability and Eco-Innovation (SEco) toolkit, followed by an analysis of its use. This research finds that a self-led toolkit was not enough to nudge SMEs to address environmental issues, despite being approved by owner-managers at each step.     

Control of industrial air pollution through sustainable development

The environmental issue has become a major subject in the last few decades affecting science and technology throughout the world due to the serious environmental impacts caused by industrial air pollution. Consequently, pulse jet filtration has become the preferred choice all around the world. Researchers are continuously striving for new concepts of more energy-efficient and compact particulate collector which can meet future emission limits and operating requirements. The system can also satisfy stringent emission norms and if required, it can be embedded with new technique for simultaneous control of particulate and gaseous pollutants. In the recent past, stress is also being given to having control over the source to reduce or eliminate waste, and finally, on waste management. Prevention is frequently more cost-effective than control. The paper discusses all these methodology toward sustainability in the perspective of effective control of industrial air pollution.     

经济集聚对雾霾污染影响的空间计量研究——以长江三角洲地区为例

雾霾污染是困扰中国经济发展的重大民生与环境问题。基于改进产出密度模型,运用地统计和空间计量模型分析长三角城市2015~2017年雾霾污染空间格局和影响因素。研究发现：（1）雾霾污染存在季节性变化特征并且各城市雾霾污染状况逐渐好转。（2）雾霾污染具有显著的局域集聚特征和空间异质性,杭州、宁波和台州呈现低－低集聚特征,而滁州、扬州、镇江和泰州为高－高集聚型,污染区域集中于省界处,污染程度自西北向东南逐渐降低。雾霾污染存在显著的城际空间正相关和空间溢出效应,周边城市雾霾污染对本地区会产生负影响。（3）长三角城市人口集聚、研发投入、产业结构、工业烟粉尘排放及城市建设均对雾霾污染产生正向影响,对外开放、能源消耗以及降水等因素对雾霾污染产生负向影响;雾霾污染与经济增长之间不存在库兹涅茨曲线关系。经济集聚通过优化生产要素的空间分布与组合、共享治污基础设施等,形成雾霾污染抑制作用。     

Economic Valuation of Health Impact of PM10 Pollution in Beijing from 2001 to 2006

Abstract

In light of the practical need for research to inform policy in Beijing, this study evaluates the economic cost of the impact of PM₁₀ pollution in Beijing from 2001 to 2006, taking health as the main impact, and mortality as the main outcome. Based on the literature review, this study adopts relatively conservative parameters as the basis for calculating the health impacts. It concludes that nearly 30% of mortality among registered residents above age 30 in Beijing can be attributed to PM₁₀ pollution, and that the economic cost equals 0.8%–1.2% of the city’s GDP over the same period. This is lower than the results of previous studies, but still high enough to warrant a commitment to solve the city’s air pollution problem.     

PM_(2.5)污染对京津冀地区人群健康影响和经济影响

京津冀地区是中国工业最为发达的地区之一和空气污染最严重的地区之一,也是国家控制空气污染的重点区域。空气污染导致的健康影响不仅会增加额外健康支出,还会导致过早死亡和工作时间减少,进而影响宏观经济发展。为了评估该地区PM_(2.5)污染引起的健康问题对宏观经济的影响,以及控制空气污染后带来的经济效益和福利的影响,本研究结合可计算一般均衡模型(Computable General Equilibrium)、温室气体与大气污染物协同效益模型(The Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies-Model,GAINS-Model)和健康影响模型对2020年京津冀地区PM_(2.5)污染引起的健康影响和经济影响进行评估。模型结果表明,2020年Wo Pol情景下PM_(2.5)污染引起的额外健康支出分别为北京44.2亿元、天津27.5亿元、河北97.5亿元。PM_(2.5)污染引起人均每年劳动时间损失分别为北京81.3小时、天津89.6小时、河北73.1小时。而劳动力供给和劳动时间减少所造成GDP和福利损失依次为天津(GDP和福利损失分别为2.79%和8.11%),其次为北京(2.46%和5.10%)、河北(2.15%和3.44%)。如果采取积极的控制空气污染物排放政策,在2020年WPol情景下,PM_(2.5)污染引起的额外健康支出分别为北京8.8亿元、天津4.9亿元、河北2.0亿元,较Wo Pol情景下显著下降。PM_(2.5)污染引起人均劳动时间损失分别下降为北京22.0小时、天津23.2小时、河北22.4小时。空气污染物控制政策给北京、天津和河北带来的经济效益分别相当于GDP的1.75%、2.02%和1.46%。因此,本研究显示控制京津冀地区PM_(2.5)污染带来的经济效益非常可观,其中天津效益最高,其次为北京,河北最低。空气污染物的迁移扩散会影响周边省市的空气质量,因此京津冀地区联合控制空气污染效果更好。     

中国高质量发展阶段最优环境保护税率研究

中国开始实施环境保护税法的时间位于从高速增长向高质量发展过渡的时期。环境保护税法规定了大气和水污染物的税率区间,因此实际执行的税率存在优化的空间。虽然征收环境保护税是为了达成环境目标,但是该项税收同样可以服务于经济和社会目标。本文拟对环境保护税这一市场化的环境政策价格工具进行优化,从这一崭新研究视角切入,探讨协调经济与环境关系的原则,以期为实现高质量发展提供理论依据。本文的研究方法基于一个包括企业、政府和消费者的世代交替模型,各经济主体进行分散化决策。企业在生产过程中排放污染,政府向企业征收环境保护税并且治理污染,消费者的内生寿命受到污染存量和人均产出的共同影响。根据市场均衡条件,本文得到描述物质资本和污染存量动态变化的非线性差分方程,在此基础上进行解析证明和数据模拟。研究得到以下三点结论:第一,同一个环境保护税率无法同时实现经济产出最大化和社会福利最大化的目标,这意味着在高质量发展阶段政府需要抛弃以经济增长为中心的政策思路,转而以社会福利最大化为目标确定最优的环境保护税率。政府提高环境保护税率,可以实现由经济产出最大化向社会福利最大化的转变。第二,相较于最大化经济产出的税率,最大化社会福利的环境保护税率在转移路径上会造成各主要变量较小的波动,并用一定的经济产出换取更多的物质资本、更优的环境质量、更长的人均寿命、以及更高的社会福利水平,因此支持了前述政府需要以社会福利最大化为目标确定最优环境保护税率的结论。第三,最大化社会福利的环境保护税率在基准模型中的数值为1.96,但污染物的异质性会影响最优税率的数值。污染物较低的自然扩散速度、较严重的健康损害程度、较高的治理技术水平都会提高最优的环境保护税率。本文提出三点政策建议:第一,通过征收环境保护税最大化社会福利水平。第二,通过提高环境保护税率体现发展理念的转变。第三,促进医疗卫生和污染治理技术进步。     

Existing oxidant/ozone standards in OECD countries

This paper describes the historical development and current legislation to control photochemical oxidant pollution in OECD countries. Policies for implementing, attaining, and maintaining ambient air quality standards or goals are discussed, problems associated with the various steps are highlighted, and the possibility of international policy guidelines which could control pollution across national frontiers is considered. To date, only a few countries have formulated ambient air quality standards for ozone/ oxidants; these standards are usually short-term averages over 1 h, ranging from 0.06 ppm (μL/L) in Japan to 0.12 ppm (μL/L) in the United States. The current interest in air quality management on an international scale leads to the conclusion that successful control of photochemical oxidant pollution would be best accomplished through the establishment of internationally acceptable standards or goals for oxidants/ozone based on health effects and other relevant environmental impacts, in combination with control strategies developed and implemented on an international level.     

Air pollution control policy in the Federal Republic of Germany as a strategy for dealing with environmental risks

The paper describes criteria for the development of energy systems, with emphasis on “environmental compatibility.” It outlines the main objectives underlying political and regulatory action in the Federal Republic of Germany to ensure this compatibility through the management of environmental risks. The air pollution control policy in the Federal Republic of Germany is presented as a strategy for risk management, focusing on its philosophy and on the recent ordinances concerning air pollution control in large firing (combustion) installations.     

Higher education for today and tomorrow: university appraisal for diversity, innovation and change towards sustainable development

This article serves as a position paper of a consortium of universities in the Asia–Pacific region working to address challenges of sustainable development and rapidly changing social, economic and natural environments. Member universities of ProSPER.Net (Promotion of Sustainability in Postgraduate Education and Research Network) have embarked on a project to develop an alternative university appraisal system that would potentially become a viable alternative to the existing higher education ranking and assessment systems perceived as constraining, yet, powerful. The article discusses the changing landscape for knowledge creation and the need for universities to assume new roles in a new kind of modernity—variously termed as “liquid modernity” (Z. Bauman), “reflexive modernization” (U. Beck) or other neologisms. It recognises that the mainstream ranking and assessment systems are powerful guiding systems for higher education institutions (HEIs) and, if modified, could be a significant force for transformation towards a more sustainable future. Recognising the need for HEIs to address societal challenges and needs, the Alternative University Appraisal (AUA) project of ProSPER.Net starts by reviewing existing models of recognition and appraisal of various aspects of HEIs’ work and aims at creating space for individual and collective reflection on HEI practices and outcomes. In addition to extensive consultations among ProSPER.Net members, as well as with other higher education actors and international organisations addressing higher education for sustainability, cross-sectoral consultations, assessments of the uncertainties and pertinent trends, and engagement with policy-making processes would be required for the AUA system to become a guiding force that shapes higher education of today and tomorrow.     

Adverse health effects of outdoor air pollutants

Much research on the health effects of outdoor air pollution has been published in the last decade. The goal of this review is to concisely summarize a wide range of the recent research on health effects of many types of outdoor air pollution. A review of the health effects of major outdoor air pollutants including particulates, carbon monoxide, sulfur and nitrogen oxides, acid gases, metals, volatile organics, solvents, pesticides, radiation and bioaerosols is presented. Numerous studies have linked atmospheric pollutants to many types of health problems of many body systems including the respiratory, cardiovascular, immunological, hematological, neurological and reproductive/ developmental systems. Some studies have found increases in respiratory and cardiovascular problems at outdoor pollutant levels well below standards set by such agencies as the US EPA and WHO. Air pollution is associated with large increases in medical expenses, morbidity and is estimated to cause about 800,000 annual premature deaths worldwide [Cohen, A.J., Ross Alexander, H., Ostro, B., Pandey, K.D., Kryzanowski, M., Kunzail, N., et al., 2005. The global burden of disease due to outdoor air pollution. J Toxicol Environ Health A. 68: 1-7.]. Further research on the health effects of air pollution and air pollutant abatement methods should be very helpful to physicians, public health officials, industrialists, politicians and the general public.