MODELING MULTIPLE-USE IN NATURAL AREAS: PART II - THE SANTEE SWAMP STUDY1

ABSTRACT: The previous paper in this two-part series presented the basic information of a newly developed mathematical model of multiple-use in natural areas. The model is a unified system for the assessment of cases where development is proposed for relatively natural areas. This paper presents the results of an application of the model to a study of the proposed timber harvest in the Great Santec Swamp in South Carolina. This was done in an effort to demonstrate the utility of the model as a planning and assessment tool. Four potential uses of the Swamp were investigated: logging of hardwood saw timber, hunting, fishing, and nature observation. The model system proved to be extremely useful in the evaluation of potential management schemes and in the selection of the most promising or optimal management plan.     

SUITABILITY ANALYSIS FOR SELECTION OF PIPELINE ROUTES1

ABSTRACT: A brief review of environmental assessment methods is presented as an introduction to a study of environmental management problems in a coastal area of southern Louisiana. The assessment method used in the study is called suitability analysis and involves the use of matrices. The matrix approach is simply a convenient method for organizing all factors representing environmental concerns in a region. The matrices proved to be very useful in defining the present state of an environmental regime and in maintaining an inventory of regional features and potential impacts. The method is described in detail and illustrated by evaluating the potential impacts of a major pipeline construction job in the area. Of major concern is the potential impact on the water resources of the region. Disruption to the natural drainage could be detremental, and affect the suitability of available water for a given use. Limitations of the method are discussed and potential areas for improvement and research are noted. Coupled with an economic assessment, the suitability analysis method should prove beneficial for selecting development sites for industries, residential areas, and other construction activities.     

A NET BENEFIT MODEL FOR RECREATION PLANNING AT DRINKING WATER RESERVOIRS1

A management model was developed for determining levels of recreation activities at public drinking water reservoirs. Quabbin Reservoir, located in central Massachusetts, served as a case study for the model. An interdisciplinary research team was formed to study the impact of selected recreation activities on water quality, public demand and willingness to pay for selected recreation activities, carrying capacity constraints, and the economic cost/benefits associated with increases in recreation at the Quabbin Reservation. Study variables were integrated into a quadratic programming model, producing the number of participants that corresponds to maximum net benefits for specific development packages on design days. The recreation mix associated with maximum net economic benefits was found to be cost-effective (assuming the use of reasonable entrance fees) and not deleterious to water quality. However, as a result of the findings of a related study, it was recommended that nutrients, particularly from wastewater, not be permitted to enter the reservoir, since the current phosphorous level may be at a critical point. Management techniques that would safeguard against this occurrence were recommended. The model was sensitive to management objectives; recommendations were limited to activities that would not lower the existing high quality of Quabbin water.     

SYSTEMATIC APPROACHES TO ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT: AN EVALUATION1

ABSTRACT. Increased public awareness of the environmental effects of large-scale projects and concomittant public participation in the environmental impact assessment process demand that assessment methods and procedures fulfill a wide range of desirable characteristics. These are developed and offered as specific criteria against which currently proposed environmental assessment procedures should be judged. Such procedures as checklists, matrices, networks (stepped matrices), overlays, linear vector analyses, and nonlinear evaluation systems are presented and judged in light of the proposed criteria. It is concluded that the use of checklists, the most common assessment format used to date, does not constitute a viable assessment procedure. Use of the matrix or stepped matrix techniques in conjunction with the linear vector or nonlinear evaluation systems, with the latter modified slightly, is seen as an approach to environmental assessment that will achieve most of the established criteria.     

PLANNERS AS A PUBLIC IN WATER RESOURCES PUBLIC PARTICIPATION PROGRAMS1

This paper suggests a number of benefits in identifying urban and regional planners as a public in public participation programs of water resources planning studies. A perspective on public participation is presented. Recent trends and developing concepts are identified: emphasis on the need to coordinate urban and regional planning activities with water resources planning, increasing system complexity, the goals and objectives orientation of planning, planning for multi-objectives, the evaluation of a broader range of alternatives, and the consideration of water alternatives as only one set of measures to further society's aspirations. One way to assist in capitalizing on these trends is to seek out participation of those in other planning efforts who are involved in planning but on a different level. Because of their intimate knowledge of an areas history, growth and development, political climate, local perceptions of needs and desires, and major problems and issues they are able to contribute a great deal of insight in making the water resources planning effort more responsive at the local level. The paper describes one of the first major efforts at working-level public-planner contact which was carried out as part of the Susquehanna River Basin Study. A regional survey team comprised of an engineer and an economist from a federal agency and a state water resources planner met informally with planners, city managers, and local planning commissions to discuss issues related to water resources and the growth and development of local areas. This effort while only part of the overall public participation program yielded a number of benefits and if expanded and refined would be a very useful experience in other studies.     

基于大数据的“邻避”设施环境社会风险评估方法研究

着力防范化解环境社会风险是社会和谐稳定的重要前提。本文基于国内全网2019—2020年关于“垃圾焚烧”的网络舆情数据,通过情感词典、TF-IDF关键词提取和人工识别方法进行“邻避”冲突的原因分析,在此基础上构建本土化的“邻避”设施环境社会风险指标体系和评估方法,结合环境、人口和社会等多源大数据,基于自然断点法对风险等级进行分类,以全国生活垃圾焚烧发电设施的重点区域为案例开展环境社会风险的分析评估。结果表明,担忧破坏生态环境、反对选址位置、担忧排放物有毒是贯穿2019—2020年两年的主要反对原因,占据反对原因的50%以上。之后,本文对各项反对因素进行归纳汇总,构建了12项指标的风险评价指标体系,其中环境因素、人口因素和社会因素为一级指标,其权重分别达到0.33、0.49和0.18,人口因素是影响程度最大的因素;对案例风险评估结果表明全国范围和六大重点区域的大多数设施拟建设于重大风险或特大风险地区,需着重关注这些地区的生活垃圾焚烧发电项目规划布局和风险防控问题。     

Measurement and assessment of carrying capacity of the environment in Ningbo, China

Carrying Capacity of the Environment (CCE) provides a useful measure of the sustainable development of a region. Approaches that use integrated assessment instead of measurement can lead to misinterpretation of sustainable development because of confusion between Environmental Stress (ES) indexes and CCE indexes, and the selection of over-simple linear plus models. The present paper proposes a comprehensive measurement system for CCE which comprises models of natural resources capacity, environmental assimilative capacity, ecosystem services capacity, and society supporting capacity. The corresponding measurable indexes are designed to assess CCE using a carrying capacity surplus ratio model and a vector of surplus ratio of carrying capacity model. The former aims at direct comparison of ES and CCE based on the values of basic indexes, and the latter uses a Euclidean vector to assess CCE states. The measurement and assessment approaches are applicable to Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) and environmental planning and management. A case study is presented for Ningbo, China, whereby all the basic indexes of ECC are measured and the CCE states assessed for 2005 and 2010.     

Integration of Environmental Assessment into the Regional Development Planning Process of the Galilee

/ The Galilee region on the northern edge of Israel constitutes more than 15% of the state's territory, supplies more than half of its drinking water needs, and is an important recreational resource and destination for Israelis. One of the main objectives of the plan for the Galilee was to devise a regional physical and economic development strategy for the years 1992-2007 that would arrest the trend of emigration of its residents, attract newly arrived immigrants to the region, and at the same time protect natural resources and environmental quality. This paper is limited to discussion of the environmental aspects of the plan. It analyzes spatial concepts for distribution of projected population growth, evaluates environmental impacts of alternative plans, and proposes a decision-making framework and tools for minimizing natural resources loss from development at the local level. Assessment of potential environmental impacts generated quantitative data of natural resources areas. Application of the data in the plan evaluation stage showed that the alternative that concentrated most of the new development in central Galilee was the second-best choice environmentally, but was preferred as the best choice for overall qualities. The planning study offers an alternative environmental impact assessment (EIA) process to the one presently used in Israel by incorporating environmental considerations at the initial plan-making stage and not at the plan-approval stage. It demonstrated that in order to be effective, environmental assessment and land-use planning should be seen as one effort that is integrated from the start and in each stage of the plan-making process.KEY WORDS: Environmental assessment; Development planning; Galilee     

鄂尔多斯盆地油田开发规划环评指标体系构建

鄂尔多斯盆地油田开发规划环评处于探索起步阶段,还未形成一套普遍认可的评价指标体系,2008年对延安市某采油厂油田开发进行了区域开发规划环评。在环境调查、相关方走访及规划方案分析、环境影响识别的基础上,结合当地自然环境、社会环境特征,构建该规划环评的三级指标体系。从多方面对本指标体系结构进行剖析,归纳出鄂尔多斯盆地油田开发规划环评指标体系构建应满足的原则和基本要求。     

A DYNAMIC MODEL FOR WATER AND RELATED LAND RESOURCE PLANNING1

ABSTRACT. Planning an optimal system of activities for generating economic goods and services within an existing natural resource capacity is a difficult problem to solve. A mathematical programming model with the capacity to check multiple resource demand and supply compatibility over many time periods was developed for the solution to this type of problem. The characteristics of natural resource supply and the demand of activities were utilized to reduce the number of time periods and to minimize the loss of the dynamic reality of the problem. Reduction in the number of time periods extended the capability of the model to the solution of complex resource planning problems without oversimplification.     

ICCLP: An Inexact Chance-Constrained Linear Programming Model for Land-Use Management of Lake Areas in Urban Fringes

Lake areas in urban fringes are under increasing urbanization pressure. Consequently, the conflict between rapid urban development and the maintenance of water bodies in such areas urgently needs to be addressed. An inexact chance-constrained linear programming (ICCLP) model for optimal land-use management of lake areas in urban fringes was developed. The ICCLP model was based on land-use suitability assessment and land evaluation. The maximum net economic benefit (NEB) was selected as the objective of land-use allocation. The total environmental capacity (TEC) of water systems and the public financial investment (PFI) at different probability levels were considered key constraints. Other constraints included in the model were land-use suitability, governmental requirements on the ratios of various land-use types, and technical constraints. A case study implementing the system was performed for the lake area of Hanyang at the urban fringe of Wuhan, central China, based on our previous study on land-use suitability assessment. The Hanyang lake area is under significant urbanization pressure. A 15-year optimal model for land-use allocation is proposed during 2006 to 2020 to better protect the water system and to gain the maximum benefits of development. Sixteen constraints were set for the optimal model. The model results indicated that NEB was between $1.48 × 10⁹ and $8.76 × 10⁹ or between $3.98 × 10⁹ and $16.7 × 10⁹, depending on the different urban-expansion patterns and land demands. The changes in total developed area and the land-use structure were analyzed under different probabilities (q _i ) of TEC. Changes in q _i resulted in different urban expansion patterns and demands on land, which were the direct result of the constraints imposed by TEC and PFI. The ICCLP model might help local authorities better understand and address complex land-use systems and develop optimal land-use management strategies that better balance urban expansion and grassland conservation.     

规划环评中的生态空间识别与生态影响评价探索——以长春新区发展规划为例

强化空间管理是规划环境影响评价优化空间开发、促进"多规合一"的新要求。同时,探索生态空间管控体系是国土空间规划的重点任务之一。本文以长春新区发展规划为例,提出前端空间引导、后端影响调控的生态空间管理体系。前端通过生态系统评价和生态空间识别,提出生态保护红线划定建议方案,确定开发"底线"。后端通过InVEST生境质量评价技术,对生境退化度及生境质量进行空间评价,识别生境威胁源影响区域,提出优化空间布局的规划调控建议。研究表明:耕地是新区发生变化幅度最为显著的用地类型,纳入生态空间管控的用地约占16.2%。其中,15.8%的用地建议纳入生态保护红线进行管理。未来城市开发对生境有一定影响,整体生境质量平均值由0.401下降至0.328。     

天然气勘探开发项目综合环境影响评价指标体系研究

针对目前天然气勘探开发项目环境影响评价不够系统的局限性,运用系统的思想观点和思维方法提出了天然气勘探开发项目综合环境影响评价指标体系.该评价体系把综合环境影响评价分为政策法规环境影响、自然生态环境影响、资源能源环境影响、经济环境影响、社会环境影响和科技环境影响等六大环境影响进行评价.借鉴环境影响评价的相关研究成果,分别为上述六大环境影响评价设计了具体的评价因子和评价指标.     

Public perceptions of planning objectives for regional level management of wild reindeer in Norway

We examined community perceptions of preferred objectives for wild reindeer management in Southern Norway as the former population-based model is being replaced with an area-based, multi-level regional management model spanning large mountain regions. Communally oriented objectives are favoured over economic benefits to landowners. Environmental attitudes discriminate on many of the issues and can be useful factors in sorting out levels of support for proposed management actions and compromises in land use decisions. The regional reindeer plans create a new political context for land use management across large mountain areas which will require better cooperation among municipalities.     

PLANNING UNDEVELOPED LAKESHORE1

ABSTRACT: Private lakeshore development usually precedes establishment of public lake access. As a result, the best access areas are often occupied before public access is provided. The public then has a problem to provide access for nonriparian citizens. This problem can be anticipated and prevented by classifying undeveloped lakeshore areas according to suitability for both private and public uses, and incorporating appropriate recommendations into the municipal, comprehensive land use plan. To accomplish this, a site evaluation system has been developed which numerically rates the lakeshore for each of four public uses: public beaches, picnic areas, boat access areas, and public marinas; and two private uses: private marinas and vacation homes. Ratings are developed for: slope, soil suitability, shoreland type, water quality, site location, scenery, and road access. These ratings are combined with a statement of public goals developed from attitude surveys to produce a lakeshore land use plan. The plan recommends that lakeshore areas best suited for private development are so used, and areas best suited for public use are reserved for that purpose. This site evaluation system is demonstrated by a case study on Lake Champlain in Ferrisburg, Vermont.     

A DIGITAL OVERLAY TECHNIQUE FOR EVALUATION OF POTENTIAL INFILTRATION AND RECHARGE1

ABSTRACT: A common problem encountered during regional planning and development of ground water dependent communities is the difficulty in deciding which areas should be preserved for aquifer recharge purposes. This paper describes the development and application of a digital overlay technique for objective evaluation and ranking of potential infiltration and potential recharge areas. Equations are developed which relate the hydrologic parameters pertaining to infiltration and recharge in a surface aquifer-confined aquifer system. These equations make use of discrete data, yet by application in a digital overlay technique results are obtained in the form of spatial distributions in order for regional trends and conditions to be examined. An application of this procedure to the 551,000 acre region of central Florida, known as the Green Swamp, is discussed. The results are presented in the form of computer generated maps which identify and rank areas of potential recharge to the aquifer system.     

A PROCESS FOR FEDERAL WATER PLANNING AT THE FIELD LEVEL1

ABSTRACT: A process for planning at the field offices of Federal water resources agencies is described. The process involve s both planners and publics in the following four planning activities: problem definition, formulation of alternatives, impact analysis and evaluation (or plan ranking). Evaluative factors are defied as the goals, concerns, constraints, etc. that affected publics and other decision makers consider in ranking alternative actions. These factors serve to drive the entire process and glue the four planning activities together. In contrast to other “models” of the planning process, the four activities are considered to be carried out simultaneously and continually from the beginning of the process. As the planning process proceeds, each activity is repeated a number of times at increasing levels of detail. Various aspects of the process are illustrated by means of an example involving water resources development in Carmel Valley, California.     

升级规划环境影响评价制度响应规划制度改革-基于《生态文明体制改革总体方案》的思考

《生态文明体制改革总体方案》提出要编制统一的空间规划,空间规划的提出是升级现行规划制度,用制度保护生态环境的体现。规划环评作为一项政策评价工具,可以引导和约束规划决策的生态性和可持续性。现行规划环评制度无论是在评价对象上,还是在功能、层次、内容、程序和强制性上,都已经无法满足规划制度的未来发展需求。因此,本文提出应同步升级规划环评制度,以响应规划制度改革的发展需求。在此基础上,本文重点分析了升级规划环评制度的六个要点:促进形成不同规划环评之间的制度合力,加强规划环评与项目环评的联动与互动,强调三级规划环评之间的衔接,落实规划环评制度与规划制度的协同,注重多元主体参与式的规划环评架构建设以及提升规划环评制度的严肃性和强制性。     

A framework for assessing the impact of land use policy on community exposure to air toxics

Our research focuses on the linkage between land use planning policy and the spatial pattern of exposure to air toxics emissions. Our objective is to develop a modeling framework for assessment of the community health risk implications of land use policy. The modeling framework is not intended to be a regulatory tool for small-scale land use decisions, but a long-range planning tool to assess the community health risk implications of alternative land use scenarios at a regional or subregional scale. This paper describes the development and application of an air toxic source model for generating aggregate emission factors for industrial and commercial zoning districts as a function of permitted uses. To address the uncertainty of estimating air toxics emission rates for planned general land use or zoning districts, the source model uses an emissions probability mass function that weights each incremental permitted land use activity by the likelihood of occurrence. We thus reduce the uncertainty involved in planning for development with no prior knowledge of the specific industries that may locate within the land use district. These air toxics emission factors can then be used to estimate pollutant atmospheric mass flux from land use zoning districts, which can then be input to air dispersion and human health risk assessment models to simulate the spatial pattern of air toxics exposure risk. The model database was constructed using the California Air Toxics Inventory, 1997 US Economic Census, and land assessment records from several California counties. The database contains information on more than 200 air toxics at the 2-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) level. We present a case study to illustrate application of the model. LUAIRTOX, the interactive spreadsheet model that applies our methodology to the California data, is available at http://www2.bren.ucsb.edu/~mwillis/LUAIRTOX.htm.     

黄河中上游能源化工区重点产业发展战略生态风险评价

结合黄河中上游能源化工区重点产业发展战略生态风险宏观性、综合性、复杂性的特点,论文以生态风险景观评价方法及3S技术等为研究手段,综合考虑重点产业发展战略人为风险源及自然风险源,以生态风险受体和终点选择、风险源分析、暴露危害分析、生态风险综合评价及生态风险分区为评价步骤,揭示了重点产业发展战略潜在生态风险空间分异特征。研究结果表明：黄河中上游重点产业战略实施区可划分为三类生态风险监控区,生态风险重点监控区自然风险源分布集中,重点产业人为风险源和自然风险源交织在一起,极易发生生态风险放大效应,生态风险次重点监控区自然生态风险源分布较单一,局部重点产业人为风险源强度增强,将增加区域生态风险水平,生态风险监控区自然生态风险源分布范围较小,潜在生态风险水平相对较低。论文探索了战略环评生态风险评价方法和评价思路,为国内重点产业发展战略生态风险评价提供了借鉴。