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1.
建立突发事件固有风险指标框架,定量评估突发事件固有风险水平。选择自然灾害、事故灾难、公共卫生事件、社会安全事件等四大类突发事件造成的死亡人数和经济损失方面的量化指标,采用秩和比法计算全国31省市区的突发事件相对风险水平,经滑动平均处理后,得到各地突发事件固有风险指数。求解各地突发事件固有风险指数与其累积频率对应的概率单位值的回归方程,将其排序分档,可把全国分为高风险、较高风险、一般风险和低风险水平等四类地区。结果表明我国各地区突发事件固有风险水平存在一定的差异,总体呈西高东低分布。突发事件固有风险指数可定量评估各地区的突发事件固有风险水平,突发事件固有风险指标设置合理、方法可行。 相似文献
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Safe pillar recovery operations can result in better miner safety and more efficient recovery of ore reserves. Several parameters influence on safety of pillar recovery operation. Each of these parameters is able to reduce safety of operation and cause to detrimental effects during pillar recovery. In this paper, by emphasizing ground control aspects, the most important technical parameters influencing on safety of pillar recovery are introduced and the role of them is described. Then, a new method is presented by combining all of these parameters to assess overall risk of pillar recovery operation in pre-developed room and pillar mines. The proposed method involves calculating the PR-Risk (Pillar Recovery-Risk) indicator. PR-Risk value is between 0 and 100 that based on overall risk of pillar recovery operation divides into four categories: low, medium, high, and very high. PR-Risk is an important indicator for predicting the safety of pillar recovery operation and based on it decision can be made about the safe implementation of operation. Finally, the overall risk of pillar recovery operation in main panel of Tabas Central Mine, located in the mid eastern of Iran, is assessed by use of proposed method in this paper. PR-Risk value in this panel was obtained 51 that show overall risk of operation is medium. Moreover, based on individual assessment of parameters, for the safe implementation of operation and reduction of related risks, reinforcement of roof prior to beginning of operation and partial pillar extraction have been suggested as the most efficient controlling measures. 相似文献
3.
通过对典型商贸市场的实地调研,依据历年商贸市场火灾事故统计数据,采用将统计方法与专家评分相结合的方法,运用系统安全及模糊数学的相关理论,提出了商贸市场火灾风险评估方法,从而为商贸市场的安全管理及火灾风险评价提供了切实可行的参考依据。 相似文献
4.
A novel method for dynamic risk assessment of oil spill accidents based on numerical simulation was presented in this paper. The dynamic risk assessment model was developed consisting of a comprehensive list of caused consequences like environmental damage, asset loss, health impact and social effect as well as emergency actions preventing these losses. Contributing events in the Mater Logic Diagram (MLD) of the dynamic risk assessment model were valued based on the simulated evolvement of oil contaminants under spill scenario on quasi-static fluid, which was obtained by coupling an oil spill model with hydrodynamic module in Jialing river of Three Gorges Reservoir in China after the impoundment of the reservoir to 175 m water level in 2010. Calculated result of dynamic risk as grade IV indicated that the assessed oil spill was not as catastrophic as we thought because of the slow transport of oil fractions on water surface and absence of dispersed oil in water body due to the quasi-static fluid, very gentle wind and effective emergency actions, as well as by the reason that rare agriculture or industrial crops exist in spill adjacent area. 相似文献
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基于时间特征指数的水源地突发性污染事件应急评估方法研究 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
应急评估及其方法研究是建立水源地突发性污染事件应急机制的关键环节之一.在综合评价现有相关应急评估方法的基础上,根据水源地突发性污染事件的风险源不确定性、受体易损性以及需快速反应性等特征,提出了对突发性污染事件的危害影响程度进行应急评估的"时间特征指数"方法.选取了泄漏物质危害性、泄漏量、泄漏位置、流速和风速5项评估指标,计算得出能够反映突发性污染事件对取水口危害威胁性的综合指数.对上海市黄浦江上游水源地一起突发性污染事件进行了案例评估,结果表明该方法具有一定的科学性和可行性. 相似文献
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蒙特卡洛模拟方法在苯致癌风险评价中的应用 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
在将PBPK模型与剂量-反应的多阶模型相结合用于苯职业暴露的致癌风险评价研究的基础上,首先利用Euler数值解法,借助Excel电子表格对模型进行求解;然后针对风险评价中存在的不确定性,采用Crystal ball软件的蒙特卡洛模拟方法对致癌风险进行概率分布规律研究;通过实地收集数据,使用该方法对某涂料生产项目进行苯暴露致癌风险定量分析.理论分析和实地验证表明,该方法计算出的风险值符合实际发病情况.该方法可以定量评估对人体有害的职业暴露危险源,提供工人致癌风险的概率数据. 相似文献
8.
为评估新冠肺炎疫情下的高校复课综合风险,辅助高校进行复课组织决策,探讨一种高校复课风险评估方法.首先,引入压力-状态-响应(PSR)模型,分析各要素互相影响机制,并建立高校复课新冠肺炎疫情综合风险评估指标体系;然后,利用风险的致灾因子与受灾体的脆弱性衡量疫情综合风险度,提出一种高校复课新冠疫情风险的评估方法;最后,以西... 相似文献
9.
应用健康风险评价模型和多元统计方法,对河南省新乡市农村地区浅层地下水2015年11月的水质数据(30眼地下水监测井,15个水质指标)进行分析,评估了对当地农村人口造成的健康风险,探索污染物的空间分异特征,并识别对应污染源。结果表明:30眼监测井的Cr6+、Pb、Cd、Hg、As指标均满足Ⅲ类地下水水质标准,但有29眼监测井存在超标因子,浅层地下水污染形势严峻;污染物通过饮水途径所致健康风险均大于可接受风险水平(1×10-6),浅层地下水不适宜直接饮用;监测井可以划分为A组、B组、C组,A组水体受到原生地质污染、营养污染和盐类污染的共同影响,B组受有机污染、盐类污染影响,C组受原生地质污染、盐类污染、营养污染、有机污染的多重作用。 相似文献
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为调查百色市大气颗粒物PM2.5中16种多环芳烃(PAHs)的污染特征,于2013年冬、夏两季采集了百色市城、郊2个不同采样点的大气样品,采用HPLC分析了16种US EPA优控PAHs的质量浓度、组分特征,运用同分异构体比率法揭示其污染来源.结果表明:百色市大气PM25中∑PAHs质量浓度为4.7~ 142.3 ng/m3,低于我国制定的PM2.5中PAHs的年均值(35 μg/m3);百色市城区、郊区2个采样点大气PM2.5中PAHs的质量浓度分别为6.9~ 142.3 ng/m3和4.7~ 109.6ng/m3,平均值为37.2 ng/m3和24.7 ng/m3,不同环数PAHs质量浓度从大到小为4环、5环、3环、6环、2环,4环、5环PAHs分别占∑PAHs的42.9%~ 50.7%和18.4%~22.4%;主要的单种PAHs为茚并[1,2,3-cd]芘、苯并[g,h,i]苝、(苊)、苯并[b]荧蒽和苯并[k]荧蒽.冬季∑PAHs质量浓度高于夏季.PM2.5中苯并[a]芘等效毒性(BEQ)为2.3~7.4,与其他城市相比,BEQ属于中下等水平.PM2.5中的PAHs源自煤及机动车辆燃油的燃烧. 相似文献
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Delphi法职业危害风险评估模型及案例研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
为科学合理地进行建设项目职业病危害风险分类,基于系统工程及风险评估的基本原理,采用Delphi法分析和确定了影响职业病危害风险程度的因素,通过构建风险评估指标体系,建立了职业病危害影响因子赋值法(OHFA)定量化风险评估模型。根据对作业场所的危害源、本质及附加防护设施水平、人员接触机会、职业病防治管理等因子的综合分析,预测分析了研究对象的职业病危害的风险程度,为职业病危害风险辨识、风险评估、防治管理及防护设施设计等提供参考。并以某石化行业硫磺回收项目为实例进行应用与验证,得出了该项目的总体职业病危害风险度值为12,风险等级为Ⅰ级,各职业病危害因素的风险度由高到底排序为硫化氢、一氧化碳、二氧化硫、硫磺、高温,其风险分类的关键决定因素为硫化氢。实践表明该方法与专家评估结果及工程实际吻合较好,应用于职业病危害风险评估中可给出定量化的风险分类结果。 相似文献
12.
针对中小企业职业卫生管理中专业人员、技术及资源缺乏的特点建立了一种作业场所有毒有害物质危险评价分级的简便方法。该方法建立在物质的毒性评估和暴露评估基础之上,能对有毒有害物质的危害性进行科学、客观的评价,而且该方法实用性很强,无需太多的专业知识和技术的要求,很好满足了中小企业在有毒有害物质危险评价方面的需求。此外,在危险评价分级基础上,对不同的危害等级提出了相应的控制策略,为中小企业制定作业场所有毒有害物质的控制措施提供有价值的参考。 相似文献
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2006年中国城市饮用水源突发污染事件统计及分析 总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9
统计分析了我国2006年1月1日至12月31日发生的城市饮用水源突发污染事件,以揭示2005年松花江污染和哈尔滨停水重大事件之后,中国城市水源突发污染事件发生的规律、危害、应急响应状况以及总体情况和变化趋势,检验近1年来中国城市水源突发污染事件应急机制的有效性和科学性.从发生日期、地点、污染物种类、事件简况、应急反应5个方面对75起突发污染事件的统计分析表明:1)2006年突发污染事件总体呈数量增多、危害增大的趋势;2)危险化学品和各类工业污水仍是主要污染物;3)交通事故、工厂泄漏事故和突然排污仍是主要风险源;4)41.3%的事件威胁到了城市供水系统安全运行,造成城市几小时或多天停水,带来严重的社会影响;5)92%的突发污染事件得到了应急响应,但应急时间远大于国家规定的1h,应急预案在快速性和有效性方面还需改进. 相似文献
14.
为对直升机医疗救援任务实施有效的风险管理,提升其飞行安全水平,运用SHELL模型对直升机医疗救援飞行进行风险识别,确定了直升机医疗救援的风险因素.运用Borda序值法和风险矩阵法建立了 Borda-风险矩阵评价模型.运用Borda-风险矩阵评价模型对G通航进行实证分析,结果表明该评价模型具有可行性,可为直升机医疗救援风险评价提供参考. 相似文献
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A fuzzy risk assessment approach for occupational hazards in the construction industry 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The techniques in the construction industry have been improved due to the rapid development of science and technology. However, the constructional hazards are not decreased as expected. To reduce or prevent occupational hazards in the construction industry, a fuzzy risk assessment method was proposed to provide a prevention and improvement technique against occupational hazards. This method used two-stage quality function deployment (QFD) tables to represent the relationships among construction items, hazard types and hazard causes. A fuzzy analytic network process (ANP) method was developed to identify important hazard types and hazard causes. Failure modes and effect analysis (FMEA) was performed to assess the risk value of hazard causes based on the fuzzy inference approach. The proposed method was applied to a telecom engineering company in southern Taiwan. The performance evaluation result indicated that this method can provide satisfactory risk assessment values of hazard causes and relevant improvement strategies. 相似文献
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基于灰关联-证据理论的高校宿舍火灾风险评价方法 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
随着高等教育规模的不断扩大,高校内各种安全问题已成为社会焦点,尤其是宿舍火灾问题一直亟待重视.为了对高校宿舍火灾风险进行合理的评价与分析,通过查阅相关资料与法规,从人、物、环境、管理4个方面出发建立了高校宿舍火灾风险评价指标体系,包括21个二级客观指标和11个二级主观指标,并给出了各指标分级标准;结合灰色关联法和D-S证据理论建立了高校宿舍火灾风险评价模型,并将评价模型应用于某高校宿舍楼进行了实例分析.结果表明:1)管理因素权重最大,对该高校宿舍火灾风险影响最深;2)评价结果不确定度为0.058 6;3)评价得分为0.941 4,风险等级为"危险",与实际风险情况相符.研究表明,此研究方法能够较客观地确定各风险因素权重、较好地融合各风险因素评价信息,有效降低风险评价中的不确定性和随机误差. 相似文献
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Occupational injuries pose a major problem in workplaces where computers are widely used. Intensive, repetitive and long period computer use results in costly health problems (direct cost), and lost productivity (indirect cost). Yet, the effect of musculoskeletal discomfort and their frequencies associated with the use of computers have not received considerable attention. This paper presents the findings of a risk assessment model through a scientific research to determine the effect of discomfort factors that contribute to musculoskeletal disorders resulting from intensive use of computers in the workplaces. In this context a questionnaire was given to 130 intensive computer users working in the university sector. A list of significant predictor variables for musculoskeletal disorders was developed to assess and analyze workplace ergonomics, worker attitudes and experiences on computer keyboard and mouse. The main focus of the current research is to seek and provide evidence that symptoms of musculoskeletal discomfort and the frequency of these symptoms are significant in the development of work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WRMSDs). This study provides the evidence that, ache and pain are the most common types of discomforts in all body regions. The discomforts were more pronounced at neck, shoulder, upper back, hand/wrist, and lower back regions. The risk factors determined by the risk assessment model were validated through ANOVA of the sEMG records for the control and test groups. The findings indicated that for each test group respondent, the mean musculoskeletal strain experienced differs in time, but the same is not true for the control group. 相似文献
18.
Fault tree analysis (FTA) is a logically structured process that can help identify potential causes of system failure before the failures actually occur. However, FTA often suffers from a lack of enough probabilistic basic events to check the consistency of the logic relationship among all events through linkage with gates. Sometimes, even logic relationship among all events is difficult to determine, and failures in system operation may have been experienced rarely or not at all. In order to address the limitations, this paper proposes a novel incident tree methodology that characterizes the information flow in a system instead of logical relationship, and the amount of information of a fuzzy incident instead of probability of an event. From probability statistics to fuzzy information quantities of basic incidents and accident, we propose an incident tree model and incident tree analysis (ITA) method for identification of uncertain, random, complex, possible and variable characteristic of accident occurrence in quantified risk assessment. In our research, a much detailed example for demonstrating how to create an incident tree model has been conducted by an in-depth analysis of traffic accident causation. The case study of vehicle-leaving-roadway accident with ITA illustrates that the proposed methodology may not only capture the essential information transformations of accident that occur in system operation, but also determine the various combinations of hardware faults, software failures and human errors that could result in the occurrence of specified undesired incident at the system level even accident. 相似文献
19.
Azmi Mohd Shariff Dzulkarnain Zaini 《Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries》2013,26(4):605-613
At preliminary design stage, process designers normally lack of information on the risk level from process plant. An inherently safer process plant could be designed if the information of risk levels could be known earlier at the preliminary design stage. If the risk level could be determined, there is a possibility to eliminate or reduce the risk by applying the well-known concept: inherent safety principle. This paper presents a technique to determine the risk levels at preliminary process design stage using a 2-region risk matrix concept. A model to calculate the severity and likelihood of a toxic release accident was developed in Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. This model is integrated with process design simulator, iCON to allow for data transfer during preliminary design stage. 2-region risk matrix is proposed and used to evaluate the acceptability of the inherent risk based on the severity and likelihood rating. If the inherent risk level is unacceptable, modification for improvement can be done using the inherent safety principles. A case study has been carried out to illustrate the benefit of applying this newly developed technique. It was successfully shown that an inherently safer plant could easily be designed by applying this technique. 相似文献
20.
Abdalla IM 《Journal of Safety Research》2002,33(4):483-496
Introduction: This paper examines crash and safety statistics from the Emirate of Dubai in an attempt to identify factors responsible for making this population at greater risk of crashes compared to other countries. Problem: In developing countries such as the United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.), motor-vehicle-related mortalities frequently exceed those of the industrialized nations of North America and Europe. Method: Fatality and injury data used in the analysis mainly come from Dubai Emirate police reports and from other relevant international sources. Groups of the population are identified according to associated risk and exposure factors. Influence and strength of the most common risk factors are quantified using relative risk, the Lorenz curve, and the Gini index. Further analysis employed logit modeling, and possible predictors available in Dubai police reports, to estimate probability and odds ratios associated with drivers that are deemed responsible for causing traffic accidents. Results: Traffic fatality risk was found to be higher in Dubai, compared to some developed nations, and to vary considerably between different classes of road users and groups of the resident population. The likelihood of a driver causing an accident is considerably higher for those driving goods vehicles, but it is also associated with other factors. Impact: Results provide epidemiological inferences about traffic mortality and morbidity, and suggest priorities and appropriate measures for intervention, targeting resident population. 相似文献