Assessment of the hazard due to fragment projection: A case study

Fragment projection following vessel burst is a possible cause of domino effects in industrial accidents. The projection of fragments from stationary equipment usually follows the catastrophic rupture of process equipment due to internal pressure exceeding design values. In recent years, a detailed model was developed to assess fragment impact probability. The model, based on the use of fragmentation patterns and of a simplified analysis of fragment trajectory, allows the calculation of impact probabilities considering different scenarios leading to vessel burst and fragment projection. In the present study a case-study was analyzed to assess model performance and to test the credibility of the model predictions for fragment number, shape and impact probability. The cumulative probability of fragment impact was found to be in good agreement with the actual distribution of the landing points experienced for the fragments formed in the accident. The maximum projection distance predicted by the model resulted comparable to the maximum landing distance experienced in the accident. The model tested thus seems to yield significant results, well in the range of those experienced in the case-study analyzed.     

Study of high-tech process furnace using inherently safer design strategies (I) temperature distribution model and process effect

High-tech industries, such as those producing semiconductor and TFT-LCD (Thin Film Transistor Liquid Crystal Display), have recently become the most important economic activities in Taiwan. Each of these industries has a complete chain of supply from raw material production, production pre-processing, product manufacturing, to waste handling. Any company in the chain is a critical component, since any accidents of fire, explosion, gas leakage, or power outage would cut off the supply chain, causing inability of continuous operation. In industries of semiconductor and TFT-LCD, great amounts of special gases and chemicals with many machinery equipments are used in the production processes. In cases of accidents or improper installation, this chain of supply, from raw material production, preproduction, product manufacturing, to waste handling materials and equipments may cause severe damages or incidents.This study used the existing model of the horizontal furnace to develop a simulation program. The simulation results were consistent with the existing model, and produced even slightly better results on temperature distribution and temperature sensitivity. The simulation model applied on a vertical furnace could provide data on furnace temperature control for industrial use. Meanwhile, this study also deduced actual temperature control and an ISD strategy, which are consistent with design strategy principles.The validation results on the proposed temperature distribution model suggested that the model can be applied in temperature distribution and sensitivity analysis to obtain adjustment and control models for various heating zones. In the case of a single tool, when processing reduction is 60 pieces, switching off the two heating zones can reduce 44% of power output, for a capacity utilization rate of 93.7% for the entire plant. The application of the proposed temperature control model can reduce power consumption by 121.4 kWh. In addition, with the same number of tools, facilities layouts in two cases have an area difference of 41.4775 m², thus shortening the evacuation time for operators. The experimental results proved that the proposed model has realized the ISD principles of intensification, attenuation, and limitation of effects.     

多条件约束三维动态行人疏散路径优化方法

针对约束环境下的行人疏散路径选择问题,提出了三维动态行人疏散路径优化方法。通过元胞自动机模型的拓展建立了三维行人疏散网格模型和三维解空间,在此基础上,综合考虑行人视域、路径距离、行人空间分布等多条件约束。引入路径寻优方法(Ant Colony Algorithm)、改进的社会力模型、更新的启发函数和信息素,构建了新的行人路径选择与优化机制。仿真结果符合实际路径优化需求,模型算法平衡了各出口利用率,提高了行人整体疏散效率,为三维空间下的行人疏散路径优化问题的解决提供了新的思路和方案,生成的疏散路径信息有望反馈到地标系统中并有效指导突发情况下行人的路径选择。     

大容积无缝气瓶瓶口外螺纹修复方法及安全分析

为确定不同瓶口壁厚气瓶的外螺纹修复方式,采用数值和理论方法,通过分析外螺纹修复后气瓶的瓶体应力分布、周向转动和轴向窜动情况,对直接加工和采用热套工艺加装衬环2种瓶口外螺纹修复方式的安全性进行评价。结果表明:针对内螺纹规格为3-1/4″-8UN的气瓶,当采用直接加工方式将外螺纹修复至4-1/2″-8UN时,气瓶最大应力位于气瓶筒体上,此时气瓶可安全使用;当已修复至4-1/2″-8UN的瓶口外螺纹再次出现磨损时,直接加工的修复方式会对气瓶的安全使用造成影响,应采用热套工艺加装衬环方式修复瓶口螺纹。     

A quantitative risk assessment tool for the external safety of industrial plants with a dust explosion hazard

A quantitative risk assessment (QRA) tool has been developed by TNO for the external safety of industrial plants with a dust explosion hazard. As a first step an industrial plant is divided into groups of modules, defined by their size, shape, and constructional properties. Then the relevant explosion scenarios are determined, together with their frequency of occurrence. These include scenarios in which one module participates, as well as domino scenarios. The frequency is partly based on casuistry.

A typical burning velocity is determined depending on the ignition type, the dust properties and the local conditions for flame acceleration. The resulting pressure development is predicted with the ‘thin flame model’. Module failure occurs when the explosion load exceeds thresholds, which are derived from single degree of freedom (SDOF) calculations for various types of modules. A model has been developed to predict the process of pressure venting after module failure and the related motion of launched module parts.

The blast effects of the primary explosion are based on results from calculations with BLAST3D. The blast and flame effects of the secondary external explosion due to venting are calculated using existing models. The throw of fragments and debris is quantified with a recently developed model. This model is based on trajectory calculations and gives the impact densities, velocities, and angles as output. Furthermore the outflow of bulk material is taken into account. The consequences for external objects and human beings are calculated using existing models. Finally the risk contours and the Societal risk (FN curve) are calculated, which can be compared to regulations.     

天然气管道泄漏爆炸后果评价模型对比分析

天然气管道失效可能导致多种严重后果,爆炸灾害给周围的人员和建筑物造成重大的危害,对其爆炸危害范围的评价进行研究具有重要现实意义。笔者综合分析蒸气云爆炸(VCE)定量评价模型和API pub 581后果评价模型;并以某输气管道为实例对爆炸后果进行了定量模拟评价;得到死亡区域与泄漏时间的关系,确定了其爆炸事故的伤害范围;对两种模型的评价结果进行了对比分析。爆炸后果评价模型的研究与其对比探讨,为今后输气管线的定量风险后果评价模型选取提供参考依据。     

Time series analysis of coal mine accident experience

This study investigates several forecasting techniques that can be useful to mine safety managers for studying mine accident rate behavior. Three time series models were studied for extrapolation of accident rates. These models are applied to historical accident incidence data from a coal mine. Further, a method is presented for evaluating the three models for the selection of an appropriate model. For this particular mine application, it is concluded that the more complex Box-Jenkins ARMA model as well as first order autoregressive model do not give better results than the simple exponential smoothing model. However, when the random variations or autocorrelations in the accident experience rates between periods are different, the models may predict differently. As such, specific models must be developed for each mine on the basis of statistical analysis of the mine accident experience data over time. Moreover, the importance of incorporating human judgement to interpret the results of statistical forecasting cannot be overemphasized. Integration of policy or operating changes, which may impact mine safety performance, with statistical forecasting techniques is essential to arrive at a realistic prediction of future performance.     

工业企业事故性泄漏扩散模型

对工业企业的泄漏扩散模型的国内外研究情况进行了调查研究,在对各模型优缺点分析的基础上,针对目前工业企业的事故后果模拟评价中所采用泄漏扩散模型存在的问题和不足,提出应用PG扩散模型研究物质泄漏的扩散模式,结合某企业的物质扩散算例说明该模型的实际应用,为工业企业的事故后果模拟评价以及重大事故应急预案的编制提供了一定的参考.     

Location selection of emergency supplies repositories for emergency logistics management: A variable weighted algorithm

With the development of the city, the number of establishments that are proposed or under construction is increasing year by year, and if they are industries that handle flammable, explosive, toxic, harmful, and dangerous substances, the public safety will face great threats, which will bring great challenges to emergency rescue work. Therefore, providing reasonable solutions to the problem of location selection of emergency supplies repositories are necessary for improving the emergency response efficiency in chemical industrial parks. A mathematical model for location selection of emergency supplies repositories in emergency logistics management are presented considering more actual factors. The optimization objectives of the model are to minimize total transport length and cost. And then a Variable Weighted Algorithm is designed to solve the model, where an auxiliary function was constructed with different methods of building weighting factors based on the theory and method of solving multi-objective optimization problems in operational research. Simulation results show the effectiveness and feasibility of the models and algorithms presented in this paper.     

Comparison of explosion models for detonation onset estimation in large-scale unconfined vapor clouds

Although industrial denotations in semi-open and congested geometries are often neglected by many practitioners during risk assessment, recent studies have shown that industrial detonations might be more common than previously believed. Therefore, from the explosion safety perspective, it becomes imperative to better assess industrial detonation hazards to improve robustness of explosion mitigation design, emergency response procedures, and building siting evaluation. Having that in mind, this study aims to review current empirical vapor cloud explosion models, understand their limitations, and assess their capability to indicate detonation onset for elongated vapor clouds. Six models were evaluated in total: TNO Multi-Energy, Baker-Strehlow-Tang (BST), Congestion Assessment Method (CAM), Quest Model for Estimation of Flame Speed (QMEFS), Primary Explosion Site (PES), and Confinement Specific Correlation (CSC). Model estimations were compared with large-scale test data available in the open literature. The CAM model demonstrated good performance in indicating deflagration-to-detonation transition (DDT) for test conditions experiencing detonation onset without any modification in the methodology. Some suggestions are provided to improve simulation results from PES, BST and QMEFS.     

一种计算粒子电迁移率的新模型

近几年来,粒子电迁移率引起了更多学者的注意。因为它是表征带电粒子在电场中运动的重要参数之一。在这方面,人们已作了大量的研究工作,提出了一些计算粒子电迁移率的理论和半经验模型。基于前人的研究,本文提出了一种计算粒子电迁移率的新模型,并用前人的实验结果和本研究的实验结果对此模型进行了检验。计算结果和实验数据很吻合。就某种意义上讲,此模型是对以前模型的扩展和改进,它可广泛应用于溶胶的研究和工业应用。     

基于后悔值模型的化工园区应急避难场所选址分析

化工园区内危险源数量多,分布广,易发生火灾爆炸等突发性灾害事故,人员应急避难场所选址相对复杂。以后悔值理论为基础,结合效用函数,构建了后悔值模型对化工园区内避难场所选址问题进行研究。主要考虑了园区内各化工企业区域分布、事故影响范围、避难人数需求、事故发生概率等因素对避难所选址的影响,结合灾害时避难人数分布情况和从聚集点向避难所转移实际所需时间提出了等效时间的概念。最后将模型应用于小虎岛化工园区避难所的选址问题,并对模型中表征风险规避程度的参数θ和后悔遗憾程度的参数δ的敏感性进行了分析。     

基于蒙特卡洛法的储罐爆炸碎片冲击失效模型研究

为定量研究相邻储罐间爆炸碎片冲击的多米诺效应,基于蒙特卡洛方法建立爆炸碎片冲击失效模型。该模型共包括爆炸能量与碎片初始速度、考虑风速及碎片初始位置的碎片三维抛射轨迹、空气阻力、碎片冲击穿透等4个分步模型。基于上述模型,研究储罐爆炸后碎片的初始状态、抛射轨迹以及对相邻储罐的冲击效应。在数值模拟结果的基础上,用储罐最高允许工作压力代替泄放装置的泄压压力来计算爆炸压力,绘制碎片质量及初始速度的直方图,定量分析储罐间距对击中概率的影响。结果表明,热辐射、超压和碎片冲击3种能量作用方式均可能导致储罐间火灾爆炸事故多米诺现象发生,但爆炸碎片冲击导致相邻罐失效的概率较低。     

An imprecise Fault Tree Analysis for the estimation of the Rate of OCcurrence Of Failure (ROCOF)

The paper proposes an imprecise Fault Tree Analysis in order to characterize systems affected by the lack of reliability data. Differently from other research works, the paper introduces a classification of basic events into two categories, namely Initiators and Enablers. Actually, in real industrial systems some events refer to component failures or process parameter deviations from normal operating conditions (Initiators), whereas others refer to the functioning of safety barriers to be activated on demand (Enablers). As a consequence, the output parameter of interest is not the classical probability of occurrence of the top event, but its Rate of OCcurrence (ROCOF) over a stated period of time. In order to characterize the basic events, interval-valued information supplied by experts are properly aggregated and propagated to the top. To this purpose, the Dempster–Shafer Theory of evidence is proposed as a more appropriate mathematical framework than the classical probabilistic one. The proposed methodology, applied to a real industrial scenario, can be considered a helpful tool to support risk managers working in industrial plants.     

Kinetic free mathematical model for the prediction of Kst values for organic dusts with arbitrary particle size distribution

Risk mitigation in production facilities has been an issue of great interest for decades, especially in activities which represent a serious hazard to human health, environment and industrial plants. Dust explosions are a major hazard in many industrial processes: only in the first part of 2019 (January–June) 34 dust explosions, mainly due to organic powders, occurred worldwide. An explosion may take place whenever there is the presence of combustible dusts, which are frequently generated by activities such as grinding, crushing, conveying and storage. Currently, a relatively expensive experimental test, carried out into a 20-L Siwek apparatus, is used to address the order of magnitude (class) of explosive dust: this piece of information is referred to as the deflagration index, K_st. At the current state, only a few pioneering models have been developed in order to predict the value of the K_st as a function of some relevant properties of the dust: e.g. particle size distribution (PSD), humidity, thermal conductivity, etc‥ Most of these models condense the information about the PSD of a given dust into an average value, referred to as D₅₀. In this work, a kinetic free mathematical model aimed at predicting the deflagration index for organic dusts is presented. This model, unlike the older ones, considers the whole particle size distribution for the computation of the deflagration index. In order to be implemented, only a single experimental K_st value (which works as a reference) and a particle size analysis on the dust are required. The model was validated using the whole granulometric distribution of three different organic powders (fosfomycin, sugar and niacin). In addition, the same estimations were done by considering only the D₅₀ data. It was noticed that, for highly polydispersed dusts, results were less accurate with respect to those obtained using the complete PSD, highlighting the importance of considering a complete granulometric distribution for process safety purposes.     

Ignition temperatures of dust layers and bulk storages in hot environments

In many industrial installations, particulate solids (cereals, agri-food products, coal, plants, etc.) are stored or processed. Self-heating of these products, which can lead to fires and explosions, can occur in a variety of situations. Examples include large storage at room temperature, formation of a layer on a hot surface, layer deposited on a surface – insulating or conductive – in a hot environment or even storage of product exposed to heating on one side.The main parameters that determine the occurrence of self-heating are the size of the container, the temperature, the residence time and the characteristics of the product. Depending on the type of situation encountered and these implementation conditions, the analysis of self-heating risks must be based on specific models and/or parameters.This paper presents the different variants and combinations of the theoretical model from the theory of thermal runaway to represent self-heating, taking into account in particular the symmetry or asymmetry of heating, reagent consumption and boundary conditions. It also discusses their adaptation to the previous identified industrial situations.Nine products were chosen to be representative of those used in the different considered industrial situations. They were subjected to self-heating basket tests in isothermal ovens in order to determine the parameters for applying the described theoretical models. These results were compared with the results of self-heating tests in layers of different thicknesses in a hot environment, on an insulating or conductive plate, using a specially developed test protocol, as well as with the results of standardized tests of minimum ignition temperature in 5 mm layers.This led to the proposal of the most appropriate theoretical model to represent the self-heating phenomenon for each of the four identified industrial situations.This analysis can promote better design of industrial equipment and production conditions (temperatures, volumes or product flows …) in order to prevent fires and explosions.     

Estimation of air traffic longitudinal conflict probability based on the reaction time of controllers

To estimate air traffic longitudinal conflict probability influenced by human factors, an analytic model considering the reaction time of controllers is proposed. In the model, the decelerating process of two close flights is described, and the reaction time of controllers is considered a stochastic variable. Then one hundred data of the controller reaction time are collected and analysed. Maximum likelihood estimate is used for parameter estimation. The Anderson–Darling Goodness of Fit test is used for significance test. The results show that the reaction time of controllers fits lognormal distribution at levels of significance 0.05, 0.025, 0.01 and 0.005 respectively. Case study is then performed to certify the rationality of the model, and the impact of the controller reaction time on air traffic longitudinal conflict probability is shown.     

Uncertainty reduction for improved mishap probability prediction: Application to level control of distillation unit

At all levels, the understanding of uncertainty associated with risk of major chemical industrial hazards should be enhanced. In this study, a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) was performed for a knockout drum in the distillation unit of a refinery process and then probabilistic uncertainty analysis was applied for this QRA. A fault tree was developed to analyze the probability distribution of flammable liquid released from the overfilling of a knockout drum. Bayesian theory was used to update failure rates of the equipment so that generic information from databases and plant equipment real life data are combined to gain all available knowledge on component reliability. Using Monte Carlo simulation, the distribution of top event probability was obtained to characterize the uncertainty of the result. It was found that the uncertainty of basic event probabilities has a significant impact on the top event probability distribution. The top event probability prediction uncertainty profile showed that the risk estimation is improved by reducing uncertainty through Bayesian updating on the basic event probability distributions. The whole distribution of top event probability replaces point value in a risk matrix to guide decisions employing all of the available information rather than only point mean values as in the conventional approach. The resulting uncertainty guides where more information or uncertainty reduction is needed to avoid overlap with intolerable risk levels.     

Reliability analysis of subsea blowout preventer control systems subjected to multiple error shocks

Two configurations of subsea blowout preventer (BOP) distributed control systems, which are triple modular redundancy (TMR) control system and double dual modular redundancy (DDMR) control system, are presented. With respect to common-cause failures, the performances of the two systems are evaluated by using Markov method with multiple error shock model. Due to the complexity, each system is split into three independent modules, and the corresponding Markov models are proposed subsequently. The probability of failure on demand, availability and reliability of the systems are evaluated by merging the independent Markov modules by Kronecker product approach. The results indicate that a same safety integrity level of SIL3 can be attained for the two configurations, which satisfies the requirement of subsea BOP control system, even though both of them have some advantages and shortcomings. In addition, for TMR control system, the effects of multiplicity distribution of multiple error shock and mean time to repair on reliability performances are studied.     

Optimal Assignments of Allocating and Scheduling Emergency Resources to Accidents in Chemical Industrial Parks

Accidents in chemical industrial parks can result in mass casualties and the risk usually escalates due to domino effects. However, most of the existing models of emergency logistics do not account for domino effect and may be unsuitable for emergency response to accidents in chemical industrial parks. This paper presents a mathematical model proposed for optimal assignments of allocating and scheduling emergency resources for rescuing victims and preventing accident spreading simultaneously. The detailed characteristics of accident scenarios and emergency resources are taken into account. Based on this, the efficiency of emergency response is evaluated by the total number of fatalities and the amount of losses caused by domino effects which are the optimal objectives of the model. A numerical case study was conducted by solving the model using a designed heuristic algorithm. The results showed the applicability and reliability of the proposed model for making optimal assignments for emergency response to accidents in chemical industrial parks.