考虑参数不确定性的框剪结构敏感性分析

建筑结构的地震需求受诸多不确定性参数的影响,为研究这些参数对地震响应的影响,以13层钢筋混凝土框架-剪力墙结构为例,基于结构非线性时程分析的结果,得到了选择不确定性参数的Tornado图形敏感程度排序,排序结果表明:对于无控和有控结构,地震动强度和地震动特征对地震需求的影响均较显著;增设阻尼器后,阻尼系数和阻尼指数也会...     

安全联锁设备SIL验证中的参数估计偏差分析

为提高安全联锁系统(SIS)不可用度计算的准确性,减少SIL验证的不确定性偏差,研究参数估计置信度分别为70％和90％时功能安全标准IEC61508的恒定失效率算法与实际非恒定失效率(威布尔分布)算法结果的偏差.结果表明:在70％置信度时,采用指数分布算法计算PFDavg,比威布尔分布算法的计算结果偏大,2者的相对偏差...     

Importance and uncertainty analysis of flue gas scrubber systems with extreme reliability parameter values

Although reliability analyses have been used to improve the reliability of industrial systems, generic reliability data from publications, such as component failure intensities and repair times, are used to calculate reliability measures instead of the real reliability data collected from the plant. One reason is that the repair history of the components is not well managed in the plant. In this work, the effect of extreme reliability parameter values on system reliability and unavailability is studied. To do this, importance and uncertainty analysis of the components of flue gas scrubber systems is carried out, and results calculated with the extreme reliability parameter values are compared with those with the mean reliability values of the systems. The different reliability parameter values can give us totally different ranks of the components critical to the reliability of the representative scrubber system. Consequently, the effort to establish a reliable database is emphasized to perform accurate reliability analysis of the system.     

An economic evaluation framework for membrane reactor modules in the presence of uncertainty: The case for process safety investment and risk reduction

A comprehensive Net Present Value (NPV) model has been developed to demonstrate the economic advantages of process safety and risk reduction investments on Pd/Au-based membrane reactors. In particular, the economic viability of Pd/Au-based membrane reactor modules incorporated into Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) plants is evaluated within the aforementioned framework by pro-actively following sound process safety design principles. Sources of irreducible uncertainty (market, technological, operational) as well as safety risk are explicitly recognized, such as the Pd/Au prices, membrane life-time and loss in the power plant capacity factor due to possible accidents. The effect of the above uncertainty drivers on the membrane module cost along with production disruption and associated revenue losses is elucidated using Monte-Carlo simulation techniques that enable the propagation of the above uncertain inputs through the NPV-model, and therefore, generate a more realistic distribution of the process system's value rather than a single-point/estimate that overlooks these uncertainties. Pre-investment on risk reducing measures, such as spare safety relief systems (cautionary redundancy) for membrane reactor modules operating at high pressures (e.g. 50 atm), is shown to be economically more attractive than cases where analogous safety measures are not implemented. Since accidents and possibly catastrophic events do happen in an uncertain world, additional investment on safety measures could ensure a safer and more profitable operation of the process system under consideration giving credence to the thesis that process safety investments may result in enhanced techno-economic performance in the presence of irreducible uncertainties.     

Use of bifurcation analysis for identification of a safe CSTR operability

Exothermic reactions are the most interesting systems for safety analysis because of their potential safety problems and the possibility of exotic behavior like multiple steady states. An operability and safety analysis of an exothermic reaction (hydrolysis of propylene oxide to tri-propylene glycol with consecutive reactions in a CSTR) with cooling is reported in this work. The information obtained from the bifurcation diagram is used to identify a set of unsafe operation points, which have been chosen on the base of requirement of maximal production of the process. An important information of safe reactor operation is the time in which the operator must handle a critical situation. For this reason, dynamics simulation of a failure in the cooling medium flow rate has been done and discussed for each of the selected operation points.     

化工园区安全容量计算模型研究

本文探讨了化工园区安全容量的含义。选择了适当的基础安全容量计算模型及事故统计指标,建立了安全容量影响因素体系,在此基础上,运用改进G1法和模糊综合评价法确定各因素的权重和隶属度,进而提出化工园区安全容量的计算模型。     

化工园区安全规划方法与应用研究

如何进行科学合理的园区安全规划,整体上提高化工园区的安全水平,是当前化工园区发展过程中的一个关键问题。中国安全生产科学研究院研发的化工园区定量风险评价(QRA)技术及其软件通过化工园区各类事故后果计算、事故概率分析获得园区个人风险、社会风险和安全容量等园区整体性风险评价结果,可用于园区选址规划、园区布局规划、园区企业准入规划和园区安全生产一体化规划等,为化工园区土地使用安全规划提供了实用技术方法,在国内几十个化工园区推广应用,取得了良好实际应用效果。     

基于贝叶斯方法的竖井中性面模型参数不确定性研究

随着高层建筑越来越多,其发生火灾的风险也越来越大,火灾烟气是导致火势蔓延和人员伤亡的主要原因,因此高层建筑防排烟设计问题可谓重中之重。建筑中性面的性质决定了其在防排烟设计中的关键地位,通过对建筑中性面位置的研究来优化建筑防排烟设计,减少火灾烟气对人和建筑的危害具有重要的意义。在前人工作的基础上,利用场模拟的方法得到样本值,并引入贝叶斯概率方法量化模型参数的不确定性,分析了竖井结构单一参数的不确定性对中性面位置分布的影响。旨在为火灾安全工程设计和竖井模型实验台设计,以及建筑竖向通道防排烟设计提供一定的参考。     

工业产品安全相关性评价研究

根据事故发生机理和系统相关性,给出了产品安全相关性的概念,并由此建立了定量评价模型.提出了主动安全相关性系数和被动安全相关性系数,并用其来表示产品安全相关性的大小.     

工业安全帽抗冲击性能研究

为研究安全帽安全性与保护性问题,利用落锤冲击实验,对不同材质安全帽吸能率、冲击力峰值进行研究.结果表明:随冲击能量增加,安全帽受冲击力峰值呈指数倍增长,吸能率呈指数倍下降;ABS树脂与玻璃钢材质安全帽头模受冲击力峰值小于HDPE材质安全帽;当冲击能量大于60 J,HDPE材质安全帽丧失保护功能;ABS安全帽能够承受最大...     

基于安全规划要素表的化工园区安全规划研究

化工园区的蓬勃发展为我国经济发展做出了重要贡献,与此同时,近年来化工园区的安全状况不容乐观,事故时有发生,缺乏有效的安全规划是事故发生的原因之一,而安全规划依据不完善、操作性不强是化工园区安全规划难以有效落实的重要原因。针对此问题,笔者依据《中华人民共和国安全生产法》等相关法律法规、标准规范,并借鉴国内外化工园区安全规划的先进经验,提炼出化工园区安全规划核心要素,将安全规划要素表作为化工园区安全规划的直接依据,该依据内容具体、较为完整。同时,基于安全规划要素表,本文重点研究了在化工园区生命周期内各阶段应重点规划的内容,指导化工园区各阶段的安全建设以及应重点注意的问题,以期加强化工园区的整体安全。     

Dynamic model based safety analysis of a three-phase catalytic slurry intensified continuous reactor

Safety analysis like the HAZOP (HAZard OPerability) study can be much more efficient if a dynamic model of the system under consideration is available to evaluate the consequences of hazard deviations and the efficiency of the proposed safety barriers. In this paper, a dynamic model of a three-phase catalytic slurry intensified continuous chemical reactor is used within the context of its HAZOP (HAZard OPerability) study. This reactor, the RAPTOR®, is an intensified continuous mini-reactor designed by the French company AETGROUP SAS that can replace batch or fed-batch processes in the case of highly exothermic reactions involving hazardous substances. The highly hazardous hydrogenation of o-cresol under high pressure and temperature is taken as an example of application. Deviations as a temperature increase of the cooling medium or no cooling medium flow can produce an overheating of the reactor. Thus, three possible safety barriers are evaluated by simulation: shut off the gaseous reactant feed, shut off the liquid reactant feed or stop the agitation. The more efficient actions are the stopping of the agitation and/or of the gas reactant feed. The simulation results can efficiently help the reactor design and optimisation. Safety analysis can also be one of the criteria to compare batch and intensified continuous processes.     

岗位安全评价在化工企业安全管理中的运用

近几年,作为安全职能管理部门,将传统安全管理和现代安全管理有机结合,运用岗位安全评价技术,贯穿到化工企业安全管理全过程,以达到安全生产的目的,对此,谈一谈岗位安全评价在化工企业安全管理中应如何运用.     

Robotic testing of radio frequency devices designed for industrial safety

An experimental setup is proposed to test the performance of safety devices based on radio frequency technology. The setup specifically tests devices designed for improving safety in dangerous areas of small size, such as those surrounding power press brakes. Tested here is a radio frequency identification (RFID) prototype, whose main objective is to prevent accidents by sending a stop signal to a machine when a worker’s wrist, bearing an RFID tag, gets too close to the dangerous area. An ABB IRB 2400L robot is used as a reference system; this system is capable of providing millimeter accuracy. A plastic hand and a wristband with at least one passive RFID tag are attached to the end of the robot arm, which emulates the behavior of a human arm. With this robotic approach, it is possible to test trajectories with different velocities and orientations and to simulate several risky situations associated with machine use. Several experiments are presented that were conducted with the RFID prototype, and statistics are reported on the distance detection capability of this safety system with respect to the plane that defines the dangerous area. A matrix approach is proposed for analyzing the robustness of safety devices that are designed to automatically prevent a worker entering in dangerous areas. The results show the benefits that development of a radio frequency device of this class could confer towards increasing worker safety.     

Dynamic safety analysis of process systems with an application to a cryogenic ammonia storage tank

A method for calculating the dynamic reliability of safety systems and its application to a refrigerated liquid cryogenic ammonia storage tank is presented. The method is based on the theory of Markov chains and can model dynamic phenomena of the process and its safety systems. It offers the capability of modelling realistically the competing process of repairing failed safety systems and the exceeding of safe limits by some critical physical parameters of the process. The results of the Markovian analysis are compared to those of the classical Fault Tree/Event Tree methods and it is shown that the proposed method offers a substantial improvement over the classical approach. The probability of failure from overpressure of a cryogenic ammonia storage tank depends in general on the level of the ammonia in the tank at the time of accident initiation. Assuming a uniform distribution for the ammonia level in the tank, the average upper and lower limits for the failure probability over a year provided by the FT/ET methods span three orders of magnitude [1.4×10⁻¹–1.0×10⁻⁴] depending on whether repair is considered or not. The proposed approach realistically determines this failure probability at 3.3×10⁻³. Additional results from specific levels of ammonia are also provided.     

基于粒计算的尾矿库安全评价不确定性研究

为了进一步提高尾矿库的安全管理水平,更好地预防和控制尾矿库事故,分析了尾矿库安全评价不确定性的3个来源:地理环境的不确定性、评价依据的不确定性、评价过程的不确定性;结合粒计算的理论知识,对尾矿库安全评价的不确定性从一级粒度、二级粒度上进行研究,并构建尾矿库安全评价不确定性的商空间模型;根据模糊聚类方法,计算影响元素的相似矩阵,建立了尾矿库安全评价不确定性的影响因素的分层递阶结构。结果表明:该研究明确区分了尾矿库安全评价不确定性因素,有利于提高尾矿库评价结果的准确性。     

基于DEA的中小型工矿企业安全管理能力评价研究

对中小型工矿企业安全管理能力的内涵进行界定,从现实能力和潜在能力两个层面建立中小型工矿企业安全管理能力的评估指标体系,并运用DEA模型进行评价。研究结果表明:该评价方法有效地反映中小型工矿企业安全管理能力,并且说明具体的改进方向,为企业提升安全管理水平提供一种思路和方法。     

我国危险化学品产业转移及安全风险分析*

为深入分析我国国内（不含港澳台,下同）危险化学品产业转移及安全风险,通过调研产业转移现状,统计典型地区产业政策、转移企业数量、转移时间及安全生产形势,分析产业转移带来的安全风险。研究结果表明:危险化学品产业转移呈现明显地域趋势,从以江苏、浙江为主的东部沿海地区向中西部等地区转移;转移时间集中在2个阶段,分别是:2002—2008年、2017—2020年;转移集中在精细化工、炼焦、煤化工等产业,医药等高端产业未发生转移;危险化学品产业转移安全风险主要表现在:“重经济,轻安全”现象突出、转移项目安全风险高、承接地基础薄弱、人才储备不足等方面;针对呈现的产业转移安全风险,提出相关对策措施及建议。研究结果可为我国危险化学品产业转移安全风险管控政策措施制定提供相关数据与理论支撑。     

汽车色彩设计对交通安全的影响研究

人的因素对道路交通安全的影响最大,色彩作用于人的生理与心理,能给人不同的心理感受.介绍了色彩的属性和几种常见颜色的色彩心理;根据色彩的生理心理特性,从车身和驾驶室配色等方面,采用安全心理学和色彩心理学以及定性分析的方法,分析了汽车色彩对交通安全和驾驶员反应的重要影响;最后提出了对汽车进行安全色彩设计的构想,并给出汽车安全色彩设计的原则、体系和步骤;对车身和驾驶室进行安全色彩设计,其中合理的色彩模拟系统的开发是关键.与其他有效的交通管理措施相结合,从而达到交通系统和谐的效果.     

有机过氧化物在生产、储运过程中的危险与可操作性分析

有机过氧化物的易燃、受热分解等特殊性质和生产、储运过程要求严格的低温条件与操作程序,使得有机过氧化物潜在的危险性很高。通过基于有机过氧化物危险特性及其在生产、储运过程中物质、能量与信息的分析,依据物-能量-信息的安全要素体系,应用危险与可操作分析方法,研究了有机过氧化物的安全理论,在某种程度上是延伸了HAZOP分析的内容。