首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
2.
In Dutch external safety policy, the acceptance of risk for the population in areas surrounding hazardous substances establishments is based on a limit value for individual risk (IR). Additionally, changes to societal risk (SR) must be justified. A specific software program (SAFETI-NL) with the associated Reference Manual Bevi Risk Assessments (RIVM, 2009) is legally required for the calculation of IR and SR. This prescribed “Bevi calculation method” forms the basis for decisions with important consequences for industry, land use planning and the protection of citizens. It is important that the outcome of calculations made with the prescribed method can be relied upon when making decisions about land use planning that affects both industry and population. This is the subject of this paper.The prescribed calculation method has been evaluated by performing a case study. The evaluation focussed on risk modelling of a Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion (BLEVE) at an LPG filling station, an incident type that plays a significant role in Dutch external safety. The risk modelling of the BLEVE with the prescribed calculation method was found to have a number of serious deficiencies. It is concluded that the prescribed calculation method yields no reliable perspective on the safety of production, use and storage of hazardous substances, nor of possibilities to increase safety.Decision making should not only depend on quantification of IR and SR. Improving the safety-relevance of the prescribed calculation method requires an increase of the number of dimensions of the outcome of risk calculations in order to make feedback possible. It is recommended to incorporate additional, safety-relevant information into planning and decision-making processes. It is envisaged that a more far-reaching change of Dutch QRA practice is needed (medium to long term). In this context, a number of interesting elements have been noticed in decision-making procedures in other EU Member States.  相似文献   

3.
城市重大危险源一旦发生事故,将造成大量人员伤亡和财产损失.构建了一种城市重大危险源风险评价方法,以个人累计风险进行定量风险分析,对全市进行风险区划,并提出相应的城市土地利用规划建议.最后以我国某城市为例,说明了城市中重大危险源风险评价的过程,及其在城市土地利用规划中的应用.  相似文献   

4.
针对雷击灾害对某化学公司可能造成的损失进行雷击风险评估,并根据《建筑物防雷设计规范》( GB50057 -2010)中的要求提出具有针对性的安全解决方案,供化工行业的单位在预防雷击灾害和安全生产方面作为参考.某化学公司建设项目的生产原材料、中间产品、成品存在多种对环境和对人体健康有害的成份,若该项目防雷防静电措施达不到防护等级要求,一旦遭受雷击,极易引起火灾、爆炸、中毒、腐蚀等事故.对其进行雷电灾害风险评估,目的是分析建设项目遭受雷击损害的可能性,计算雷击人员生命损失风险,并与风险允许值比较,判断是否需要采取防雷措施,以及防雷措施应达到的防护等级,提出科学、经济、符合项目特性的防雷措施,以降低雷击风险,使雷击风险在可接受的范围内,确保建筑物内的人员生命及财产的防雷安全.  相似文献   

5.
城市规划是将持续发展、科学发展作为基础,对于城市发展中的经济结构、环境影响等内容加以规划,以发挥指导规范城市发展的作用。在城市规划的编制过程中要对环境影响加以评价。本文以城市规划与环境评价为出发点,提出规划环境影响评价存在的几点问题及解决思路,在更大的范围内保证城市规划的合理性,为政府相关部门科学决策提供依据。  相似文献   

6.
基于微震活动性参数的矿山灾害风险性评价   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
微震灾害分级是判别及处理高风险采场的关键。为了预测并防治采空区失稳导致的灾害,结合用沙坝矿引进的IMS微震监测系统,首先统计矿山尺度的微震活动性特征,将主要采场进行分区。然后分析各分区的最大潜在震级及其重现时间、微震扩散率、微震劲度比、能量频次等特征。最后结合采场微震灾害风险性分级标准对各分区风险性进行分级。结果表明,综合考虑微震事件的能量分布特征、空间分布特征、时间分布特征进行灾害风险性分级的结果更为合理。  相似文献   

7.
以往的灾害风险分析方法通常是根据灾情资料估计致灾因子强度的概率分布和灾害承受体的损失曲线,通过估计损失期望值来度量灾害的风险水平.采用信息扩散技术将形式化的期望模型转化为可计算的台风风险模型,使用信息分配法估计风力等级的概率密度分布,使用信息扩散法构造承受体的脆弱性函数,结合台风的发生频次预测灾害的年度风险值.以广东省为例进行台风风险分析,估计了该地区与经济、人口、作物、房屋有关的多项指标的年度灾损期望值.结果表明,采用信息扩散技术大大提高了小样本不完备信息的利用效率,评价结果合理可信,可为台风灾害的风险控制、应急管理提供一定的参考.  相似文献   

8.
桥梁工程规划设计阶段施工安全风险评估的研究   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
研究表明,有相当大比例的工程事故原因可以追溯到规划设计的不当。将工程的规划设计纳入施工安全管理全过程,就是将事故防控的"关口前移"和"源头管理"的创新思路。本研究以桥梁工程领域为例,探讨了我国在规划设计阶段进行施工安全风险评估的发展思路,包括:完善基础理论、将工程实践和立法推动相结合、从在建工程的施工安全现状反推其规划设计等,为提升我国工程建设施工安全提供借鉴。崇启大桥及泰州大桥工程实践表明,安全是可"构建"的,通过施工风险评估,能够改善规划设计,降低施工安全的风险,从而减少施工过程人员的伤亡或健康危害。  相似文献   

9.
Previously, an extensive study has been carried out in order to assess the ignition sensitivity and explosivity of aluminum nanopowders. It showed notably that, as the particle size decreases, minimum ignition temperature and minimum ignition energy decrease, indicating higher potential inflammation. However, the explosion severity decreases for diameters lower than 1 μm. As a consequence, this study leads to the conclusions that the ignition sensitivity and explosion severity of aluminum nanopowders may be affected by various phenomena, as pre-ignition, agglomeration/aggregation degree and the intrinsic alumina content. The presence of wall-quenching effects and the predominance of radiation compared to conduction in the flame propagation process have to be discussed to ensure the validity of the 20 L sphere and of the results extrapolation. Based on the peculiar behaviours that had been previously highlighted, a specific risk analysis has been developed in order to assess the fire and explosion risks of such materials. It has been applied to an industrial plant of aluminum nanopowders production. The hazard identification and the consequence modelling steps, especially the quantification of the likelihood and consequences, have been designed specifically. The application of this method has led to the definition of the most adequate safety barriers.  相似文献   

10.
针对木业企业火灾风险特点,建立企业火灾危险性评价方法--火灾风险调查评价法.并利用该方法得到系统安全分值SV,建立木业企业火灾保险费率模型.本文以浙江省嘉善县某典型木业企业为例,评价了其火灾危险性,计算了该企业火灾保险费率,并与投保企业财产综合险数据进行了对比分析.根据标的的火灾风险评估结果厘定了其火灾保险费率,并使其费率与风险状况一致.评价方法考虑了影响火灾风险的多方面因素,能对火灾风险状况做出较全面和客观的评价.案例研究表明,保险公司的恶性竞争手段--收取的保险费率远低于公平费率.是造成财险经营严重亏损的根本原因.  相似文献   

11.
城市建筑火灾评价指标及其权重处理   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
针对城市建筑火灾的危害严重程度,结合建立的城市建筑火灾危险性评价指标体系,运用Fuzzy-AHP法确定了各评估因子的权重,指出了今后的努力方向。  相似文献   

12.
对北京市近年来的燃气状况进行了分析,从燃气系统存在的风险源出发,找出了北京市燃气系统存在的风险以及衍生和次生灾害;运用系统安全分析的"人-机-环-管"理论,考虑了燃气设施及管理的风险承受力和控制力,找出了影响燃气突发事件风险发生的可能性因素和后果严重性因素,从而建立了风险可能性和后果严重性的指标体系;利用风险矩阵从多角度对城八区天然气管网系统进行风险评估,确定风险等级,提出了防止燃气事故发生的安全防范措施,以增强北京燃气设施的安全稳定运行。  相似文献   

13.
从建筑火灾坍塌事故的特点及危害入手,分析了火灾中影响建筑坍塌时间的因素,阐述了建筑火灾坍塌前兆,得出建筑火灾坍塌危险性评估结论:在无爆炸发生情况下,无先天质量问题的钢筋混凝土建筑,一般在火灾持续5、6个小时内不会发生整体坍塌;我国北方建筑比南方的建筑普遍抗烧塌性相对较强;按防震设计的震区建筑,其火灾抗塌性明显增强;灭火冷却及时的建筑不易坍塌。  相似文献   

14.
铁路隧道TBM施工风险评估   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
采用基于熵权的模糊综合评估模型对西秦岭特长铁路隧道TBM施工风险进行分析,识别关键风险因素并提出施工应对策略。首先结合西秦岭隧道项目工程特点,参照《铁路隧道风险评估与管理暂行规定》进行TBM施工风险识别,将其归结为设备风险、掘进风险、辅助工序风险三大方面,对每个方面细分出4项一级风险因素。接着确定各层次风险因素权重:借助专家调查确定一级风险发生的概率等级,运用熵权法确定底层风险权重;运用层次分析法确定三大方面风险权重。最后建立二级模糊综合评判模型,评估西秦岭铁路隧道右线的施工风险等级。通过现场专家调查得到的一级风险因素后果损失等级表建立一级评判隶属度矩阵,进行一级模糊评判;并将结果作为二级评判因素的评价集,进行第二级综合评判,评定该项目为2级风险。同时借助熵权反映底层各风险因素的重要程度,确定关键风险因素并判断其风险等级,提出施工应对措施。  相似文献   

15.
小城镇灾害易损性可拓评估的原理和应用   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
为给小城镇防灾减灾和小城镇规划等提供科学依据,本文借鉴可拓原理对小城镇灾害易损性进行了可拓评估.首先,建立了小城镇灾害易损性的可拓评估流程,结合湖南小城镇实例,选取评价指标,确定灾害易损性的分级标准;其次,构建了可拓评估的经典域、节域蝌和物元;然后提出了用简单关联函数计算指标权重;最后,计算了灾害易损性的关联函数值和关联度,评估了灾害易损性的等级并计算了其变量特征值.与模糊评估方法相比,两者平级结果总体上一致.结果表明,该方法能较真实地反映小城镇灾害易损性等级,同时也证明了将可拓原理应用于小城镇灾害易损性评估的可行性.  相似文献   

16.
为了增加空域容量,缩小垂直间隔(RVSM)在全球范围内广泛实施,运行RVSM必须在实施前和实施后都应对RVSM空域进行安全评估,使其符合国际民航组织系统性能规范要求.根据北大西洋和欧洲地区采集的相关数据,结合我国大高度偏差(LHD)统计数据,通过改进Reich碰撞模型,计算在RVSM空域同航路的航空器因操作性误差引起大高度偏差时在垂直方向上的碰撞率.计算结果表明,总的RVSM运行风险小于规定值,航路垂直间隔标准在给定的飞行环境下是安全的.  相似文献   

17.
The U.S. Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board (CSB) investigated three fatal dust explosions that all occurred in 2003. These explosions caused the deaths of 14 people and injured hundreds more. Two of the facilities were damaged beyond repair, and several hundred employees lost their jobs.

CSB's investigations revealed that the explosions had common causes, despite their geographic and industrial diversity. Consequently, CSB commissioned a study of combustible dust fire and explosion hazards. This paper presents a summary of CSB's findings and recommendations developed during that study.  相似文献   


18.
油氢合建站作为新型能源基础设施,在实现传统油品加注和氢燃料运营的过程中出现诸多安全新问题。为规避此类问题带来的事故风险,以上海首座油氢合建站为研究对象,通过定性和定量相结合的方法对其建造、运营及维护过程中的事故危险源及有害因素进行风险分析。基于FTA确定引起油氢合建站内危险物质泄漏、火灾及爆炸事故的事件重要度和高风险因素,通过F&EI评价法对油氢合建站危险因素进行定量计算,确定其发生事故的最高危险等级为非常大,暴露危险区域面积为6015.65 m2。基于此,从安全管理、泄漏防控措施、防火防爆技术及事故应急处置等方面提出事故风险管控对策,采用一系列安全管控补偿措施后,油氢合建站事故危险等级降至较轻以下,暴露危险区域被控制在780 m2内。  相似文献   

19.
湖南柿竹园多金属矿老蛇形坪矿区闭坑后被高峰水库淹没,周边民采矿点超深越界偷采井下保水矿柱,形成了高峰水库下积水采空区透水隐患。为了保证临近矿区安全开采,消除采空区透水隐患,在三维流固耦合有限差分数值模拟的基础上,对53#关键采空区和18m隔水矿柱的稳定性进行了分析,采用事故树法排查了可能发生出突水事故的104种基本事件,分析了高峰水库重大安全隐患的风险等级,并提出了隐患治理对策,可为水下开采的矿山突水安全评估及治理提供参考。  相似文献   

20.
Tetsu Moriyama  Hideo Ohtani   《Safety Science》2009,47(10):1379-1397
Although it has been estimated that as many as 80% of all occupational accidents have human errors as a cause, no risk assessment tools incorporating human-related elements have been developed for small companies. Human error probability (HEP) and human error analysis (HEA) have been used for large-scale, safety-critical industries for last three decades, but these tools are not suitable for smaller, more general industries that comprise the majority of accident settings.Here, we describe and verify a risk assessment tool that includes human-related elements for small companies. The tool expands on traditional risk assessment methods, such as matrix, risk graph and numerical scoring method, by adding human-related elements. The tool is easy-to-use in occupational environments, and includes assessments of human behavior and potentially outdated machinery at work place.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号