区域滑坡灾害地形地貌因子敏感性分析研究

为分析地形地貌与滑坡敏感性之间的关系,借助地理信息系统(GIS)空间分析技术和滑坡影响因子贡献率的数学方法,研究雅安市雨城区坡度坡向对滑坡的影响程度的大小。通过研究得到了每一区间的坡度和坡向对滑坡的贡献率,定量地分析了坡度、坡向对研究区域的滑坡发育的关系。研究结果表明,坡度20～30°区间的区域为滑坡最敏感的区域,坡向带90～120°区间是滑坡灾害最敏感的区域,但坡向带每一区域的贡献率差别不大。     

煤矿职工安全心理重要性分析

为了预防或控制煤矿事故中人为因素的影响,通过对煤矿生产活动的特点介绍,分析了煤矿生产活动对煤矿职工心理的影响和煤矿职工的主要安全心理问题,阐述了煤矿职工安全心理在煤矿生产活动中的重要性,为避免或减少煤矿职工出现不安全心理及不安全行为提供依据.     

一种新的基于图模型的间歇过程故障监测方法

目前多元统计方法被广泛用于间歇过程故障监测并已经取得了比较好的效果。但是,统计模型的可解释性能比较差,很难直接利用操作人员积累的安全经验。为应对这些不足,提出了一种基于图模型的间歇过程故障监测方法。利用提出的定性建模方法,过程机理及操作人员的安全经验能够方便地表达。利用在线的过程变量数据和正向推理算法推断生产应处于的状态,利用安全知识及时地发现生产异常。当推断的结论与在线测得的结果矛盾或过程变量超过设定的安全限时,给出解释性输出。通过一个间歇反应案例,验证了提出的方法在模型的可解释性和利用安全经验方面的优势。     

镁粉着火敏感特性研究现状与分析

通过大量文献调研,从两个方面整理并分析了近年来关于镁粉着火敏感特性研究现状,即镁粉着火敏感特性参数和镁粉着火敏感特性防护技术研究,并在此基础上提出进一步的研究建议,为更好地预防镁粉爆炸事故及相关理论技术研究提供参考。     

A dual-sensor-based method to recognize pipeline leakage and interference signals

During the detection of pipeline leakages, false alarms of leak detection could be markedly reduced if the interference signals resulting from pressure regulating, pump regulating or valve movements could be accurately distinguished. A digital recognition method for interference signals and leakage signals based on a dual-sensor system is proposed in this paper. It is demonstrated that the direction of the signal can be recognized by a cross-correlation calculation between two signals from the dual-sensor, one of which undergoes forward linear interpolation and backward linear interpolation. Based on this theory, the interference signal and the leak signal can be discriminated exactly, and the distance between the two sensors in the dual-sensor system can be considerably reduced without needing to increase the sampling frequency. The monotonicity of the cross-correlation function is demonstrated, and a fast discrimination algorithm based on a binary extreme search method, which decreases the computational load and maintains global optimization, is also proposed. A pre-processing method of the actual signal is proposed to decrease the identity requirement for the two sensors in a dual-sensor system. In the experiment based on artificial signals, the proposed discrimination algorithm could achieve accurate recognition of the abnormal signal, and as such, the theory and application of pipeline leak detection based on dual-sensor systems are extended.     

A novel method for evaluation of fire prevention by using water curtain with large droplets

Based on the ability to attenuate thermal radiation of droplets, water curtain plays an important role in fire prevention in the oil and gas terminal, traffic tunnel and other outdoor spaces. Radiation transfer characteristics of large droplets are determined by the Mie theory, and the Two-flux model is used to simplify the radiative transfer equation. Combined with an empirical formula to calculate the droplet diameter, a novel method is given for calculating the transmissivity of water curtain. Based on the method, influences of both the pressure and the width of water curtain on the transmissivity are fit for exponential relationship. Compared with experimental data, an ideal agreement is found between calculation results and experimental data for both single pipe water curtain and double pipe water curtain, only in the case of triplex pipe water curtain the deviation between calculation and experiment is more than 25%. A better calculation result can be obtained under the condition of the optical thin media. The method is effective in the scope of that the transmitted radiation is stronger than the environmental radiation.     

A novel knowledge database construction method for operation guidance expert system based on HAZOP analysis and accident analysis

An expert system for operation guidance will contribute to identifying the operatoration problems and indicating the resolutions thereof, because the information stored in the expert system can be utilized to resolve the corresponding technical problems. However, there are several problems that should be solved in the practical application of the expert system, such as lack of corresponding knowledge or resolutions utilized to cope with the problems, inapplicable resolutions, too many resolutions for the operators to choose from to obtain the best one in the first time, etc. Obtaining and storing as much as information in the database of the expert system are important issues in the construction process of the expert system. The accident analysis results contain a limited number of accident cases and the HAZOP analysis only refers to a single deviation analysis. This paper has presented a novel knowledge database construction method for an operation guidance expert system based on the HAZOP analysis and the accident analysis, which can be used to resolve the above problems. The HAZOP analysis results are combined with the accident analysis results and the combination information can be stored in the database of the expert system, and can be employed to forecast accidents or identify accident causes. The structures of the operation guidance table and the accident investigation table have been illustrated. The residuum hydrotreating process expert system is taken as an example to illustrate the knowledge database construction method. With the aid of this expert system, the operators will well understand the operations and adopt the best resolutions to deal with the abnormal situations. Also the operators can identify potential risks existing in the plant which will result in accidents according to the accident analysis results associated with the HAZOP analysis results.     

Sensitivity evaluation of the visual,tactile, and auditory detection response task method while driving

Objectives: In this article, we evaluate the sensitivity to cognitive load of 3 versions of the Detection Response Task method (DRT), proposed in ISO Draft Standard DIS-17488.

Methods: We present a user study with 30 participants in which we compared the sensitivity to cognitive load of visual, audio, and tactile DRT in a simulated driving environment. The amount of cognitive load was manipulated with secondary n-back tasks at 2 levels of difficulty (0-back and 1-back). We also explored whether the DRT method is least sensitive to cognitive load when the stimuli and secondary task are of the same modality. For this purpose, we used 3 forms to present the n-back task stimuli: visual, audio, and tactile. Responses to the task were always vocal. The experiment was based on a between-subject design (the DRT modalities) with 2 levels of within-subject design study (modalities and difficulty of the secondary n-back tasks). The participants' primary task in the study was to drive safely, and a second priority was to answer to DRT stimuli and perform secondary tasks.

Results: The results indicate that all 3 versions of the DRT tested were sensitive to detecting the difference in cognitive load between the reference driving period and driving and engaging in the secondary tasks. Only the visual DRT discriminated between the 0-back and 1-back conditions on mean response time. Contrary to expectations, no interaction was observed between DRT modality and the stimuli modality used for presentation of the secondary tasks.

Conclusions: None of the 3 methods of presenting DRT stimuli showed a consistent advantage in sensitivity in differentiating multiple levels of cognitive load if all response times, hit rates, and secondary task performance are considered. If only response time is considered, the visual presentation of the DRT stimulus used in this study showed some advantages. In interpreting these data, it should be noted that the methods of DRT stimulus presentation varied somewhat from the currently proposed draft ISO standard and it is possible that the relative salience level of the visual DRT stimulus influenced the findings. It is further suggested that more than 2 levels of difficulty of the n-back task should be considered for further investigation of the relative sensitivity of different DRT stimuli modalities. Parameters that indicate change in cognitive load (response time, hit rate, task performance) should be analyzed together in assessing the overall impact on the driver and not individually, in order to obtain a fuller insight of the assessed cognitive load.     

Wrong-way driving crashes: A multiple correspondence approach to identify contributing factors

Objective: Wrong-way driving (WWD) crashes result in 1.34 fatalities per fatal crash, whereas for other non-WWD fatal crashes this number drops to 1.10. As such, further in-depth investigation of WWD crashes is necessary. The objective of this study is 2-fold: to identify the characteristics that best describe WWD crashes and to verify the factors associated with WWD occurrence.

Methods: We collected and analyzed 15 years of crash data from the states of Illinois and Alabama. The final data set includes 398 WWD crashes. The rarity of WWD events and the consequently small sample size of the crash database significantly influence the application of conventional log-linear models in analyzing the data, because they use maximum-likelihood estimation. To overcome this issue, in this study, we employ multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) to define the structure of the crash data set and identify the significant contributing factors to WWD crashes on freeways.

Results: The results of the present study specify various factors that characterize and influence the probability of WWD crashes and can thus lead to the development of several safety countermeasures and recommendations. According to the obtained results, factors such as driver age, driver condition, roadway surface conditions, and lighting conditions were among the most significant contributors to WWD crashes.

Conclusions: Despite many other methods that identify only the contributing factors, this method can identify possible associations between various contributing factors. This is an inherent advantage of the MCA method, which can provide a major opportunity for state departments of transportation (DOTs) to select safety countermeasures that are associated with multiple safety benefits.     

Sensitivity of Head and Cervical Spine Injury Measures to Impact Factors Relevant to Rollover Crashes

Objective: Serious head and cervical spine injuries have been shown to occur mostly independent of one another in pure rollover crashes. In an attempt to define a dynamic rollover crash test protocol that can replicate serious injuries to the head and cervical spine, it is important to understand the conditions that are likely to produce serious injuries to these 2 body regions. The objective of this research is to analyze the effect that impact factors relevant to a rollover crash have on the injury metrics of the head and cervical spine, with a specific interest in the differentiation between independent injuries and those that are predicted to occur concomitantly.

Methods: A series of head impacts was simulated using a detailed finite element model of the human body, the Total HUman Model for Safety (THUMS), in which the impactor velocity, displacement, and direction were varied. The performance of the model was assessed against available experimental tests performed under comparable conditions. Indirect, kinematic-based, and direct, tissue-level, injury metrics were used to assess the likelihood of serious injuries to the head and cervical spine.

Results: The performance of the THUMS head and spine in reconstructed experimental impacts compared well to reported values. All impact factors were significantly associated with injury measures for both the head and cervical spine. Increases in impact velocity and displacement resulted in increases in nearly all injury measures, whereas impactor orientation had opposite effects on brain and cervical spine injury metrics. The greatest cervical spine injury measures were recorded in an impact with a 15° anterior orientation. The greatest brain injury measures occurred when the impactor was at its maximum (45°) angle.

Conclusions: The overall kinetic and kinematic response of the THUMS head and cervical spine in reconstructed experiment conditions compare well with reported values, although the occurrence of fractures was overpredicted. The trends in predicted head and cervical spine injury measures were analyzed for 90 simulated impact conditions. Impactor orientation was the only factor that could potentially explain the isolated nature of serious head and spine injuries under rollover crash conditions. The opposing trends of injury measures for the brain and cervical spine indicate that it is unlikely to reproduce the injuries simultaneously in a dynamic rollover test.     

混凝-电凝聚-超滤技术处理3次采油废水研究

为使3次采油废水的CODCr达到国家标准要求,在保留油田现有工艺处理的基础上,采用电凝聚-超滤耦合技术并投加无机混凝剂对3次采油废水进行深度处理.调整跨膜压差、反应时间、混凝剂投加量、电流密度、温度、pH值等进行条件筛选试验.电凝聚反应结束后启动超滤系统,从反应槽中取适量处理水,采用重铬酸钾法测定其CODCr.采用钢作电极,当极板间距为2 cm,pH值为7.00,硫酸铝混凝剂投加量为300 mg/L,搅拌速度为500 r/min,电流密度为12.5 A/m2时,40℃下水浴加热反应30 min后,启动超滤系统并控制跨膜压差为0.08 MPa,此时CODCr去除率达69.3%,出水CODCr值为81.8 mg/L,满足国家<污水综合排放标准>(GB 8987-1996)中一级标准要求.研究表明,混凝-电凝聚-超滤技术能够有效处理3次采油废水,反应时间为30～40min,混凝剂投加量为300～400mg/L,电流密度为12.5～16.7 A/m2,温度为40℃,pH值为7～7.5时,其处理效果显著.     

A study on rescuer drowning and multiple drowning incidents

IntroductionDrowning is a leading cause of injury related death in many countries, including Turkey, where this study originates. The aim of the study is to define and examine “rescuer” drowning and Multiple Drowning Incidents (MDIs), and suggest preventative measures against MDIs.MethodThe event of a person drowning can be complicated if an untrained person attempts to rescue the Primary Drowning Victim (PDV). This can result in the death of the “rescuer” as well as the PDV, which then becomes an MDI. This study categorizes these MDI incidents by examining online news media accounts in Turkey from 2005 through 2008.ResultsIn this 4-year period, 88 “rescuer” drowning incidents occurred in which 114 “rescuers” and 60 PDVs died from drowning in MDIs; 114 drowned “rescuers” rescued 47 PDVs before they died from drowning. Most of the “rescuers” were male and 42.1% of them were under the age of 18. Most of the drowning incidents (68.5%) occurred in fresh water (lakes/dams/water holes and rivers/creeks/streams).ConclusionIn this study, risk factors for drowning deaths include gender and entering in unguarded open water. An increased awareness of such risks as well as promotion of both swimming and rescue skills in water could help reduce MDIs. Parents who live close to fresh water sources with boys under the age of 18 years should be more aware of drowning risk because of their higher rates of deaths from drowning.Impact on IndustryThe results of this study give the chance to policy makers and all other related people or organizations to see the whole picture of deaths by drowning and the results can be used to build up preventative strategies as swimming teaching and life guard education.     

多承载索货运索道计算方法及张力不平衡效应分析

通过分析多承载索货运索道工作索的空间位置关系,在弹性悬链线计算方法的基础上,建立包括索道结构守恒方程和力平衡方程的非线性方程组,形成多承载索货运索道系统整体耦合计算方法。针对四承载索货运索道的典型设计工况,应用该方法完成承载索长度不一致情况下,货运索道的承载索张力变化分析。研究结果表明:多承载索货运索道承载索间的张力不平衡受索长偏差影响极大,而且不平衡效应与索长变化工况（索长偏差变化量、变化索的位置等）和载荷重量密切相关,多索索长不一致造成的张力不平衡使得承载索破断风险急剧增加。     

基于多故障冲击模型和故障树的PFDavg计算方法研究*

为提高安全仪表功能（SIF）要求时危险失效平均概率（PFDavg）计算结果的精确度,提出1种能准确计算SIF在多重共因失效影响下的PFDavg的数学模型。建立包含多重共因失效的系统失效故障树,然后利用多故障冲击模型区分普通失效率和多重共因失效率,根据瞬时不可用率的定义和故障树的逻辑关系计算出SIF的瞬时不可用率;基于PFDavg的定义,计算出SIF的PFDavg,以某化工企业SIF为例进行验证。结果表明:方法有效考虑了多重共因失效对SIF的影响,通过模型计算出SIF的PFDavg大于基于马尔可夫（Markov）方法的软件计算结果,但二者处于相同的数量级。模型在评估SIF的PFDavg时比传统方法偏保守,能提高安全仪表功能的安全性。     

A novel pretreatment process of mature landfill leachate with ultrasonic activated persulfate: Optimization using integrated Taguchi method and response surface methodology

A novel advanced oxidation process (AOP) using ultrasonic activated persulfate oxidation was used to pretreat mature landfill leachate. The effects of different operating variables (e.g., the initial S₂O₈²⁻ concentration, pH, temperature, ultrasonic power and reaction time) on the oxidation performance were investigated regarding the total organic carbon (TOC) removal efficiency, and the variables were optimized using the integrated Taguchi method and response surface methodology (RSM). Based on the Taguchi method under L₁₆ (4⁵) arrays and a grey relational analysis, the most significant variables included the initial S₂O₈²⁻ concentration, temperature and reaction time. The concentrations of these variables were further optimized using RSM. Using the integrated optimization method, the optimal conditions included an initial S₂O₈²⁻ concentration of 8.5 mM, a reaction temperature of 70 °C and a reaction time of 2.46 h, which resulted in a TOC removal efficiency of 77.32%. The experimental results showed that the enhanced TOC removal from mature landfill leachate by sono-activated persulfate oxidation could be attributed to the combined effects of ultrasonic catalysis and sulfate radical-AOP. Overall, ultrasonic activated persulfate oxidation is a promising method for the pretreatment of landfill leachate.     

敏感性分析在燃烧毒物和自由基生成机理研究中的作用

针对燃料氧化的详细/半详细化学反应动力学机理，采用定量研究模型与出现在模型中各种参量之间关系的系统化方法--敏感性分析法，研究各基元反应对燃料过程中毒物和自由基生成的影响系数随时间的变化关系，为反应设计提供理论指导。