REGIONALIZATION AND PREDICTION OF FLOODS IN THE FRASER RIVER CATCHMENT,B.C.1

Probability distributions that model the return periods of flood characteristics derived from partial duration series are proposed and tested in the Fraser River catchment of British Columbia. Theoretical distributions describing the magnitude, duration, frequency and timing of floods are found to provide a goof fit to the observed data. The five estimated parameters summarizing the flood characteristics of each basin are entered into a discriminant analysis procedure to establish flood regions. Three regions were identified, each displaying flood behavior closely related to the physical conditions of the catchment. Within each region, regression equations are obtained between parameter values and basin climatic and physiographic variables. These equations provide a satisfactory prediction of flood parameters and this allows the estimation of a comprehensive set of flood characteristics for areas with sparse hydrologic information.     

REGIONALIZATION AND PREDICTION OF ANNUAL FLOODS IN THE FRASER RIVER CATCHMENT,BRITISH COLUMBIA1

A method of predicting probability distributions of annual floods is presented and is applied to the Fraser River catchment of British Columbia. The Gumbel distribution is found to adequately describe the observed flood frequency data. Using the estimated Gumbel parameters, discriminant analysis is performed to separate basins into flood regions. Within each region, regression analysis is used to relate physiographic and climatic variables to the means and standard deviations of the annual flood series. The regression equations are applied to four test basins and the results indicate that the method is suitable for an estimation of annual floods.     

土地可持续利用的动态度量

完善土地持续利用的定量评价指标体系和评价方法乃是今后土地持续利用的重要课题,度量土地利用的可持续性应该遵循动态延续、面向区域、显示过程和突出目标的原则,据此建立一个动态地度量土地利用可持续性的指标体系,包括生产性、结构性、效率性、公平性、稳定性、协调性、恢复性和可控性8个准则层,每一个准则层选择一个综合指标.     

PREDICTION OF MEAN ANNUAL FLOWS IN THE FRASER RIVER CATCHMENT,BRITISH COLUMBIA1

ABSTRACT: A method of predicting annual flows is presented and is applied to the Fraser River catchment. Statistical tests show the annual flow records to be stationary and aerially independent and can be adequately approximated by Gaussian distributions. Estimates are made of the Gaussian parameters for each subbasin. The spatial variations of these parameters are described by third order trend surfaces. The fitted surfaces can then be used to predict parameters of ungaged basins using the latitude and longitude of the basin centroids. The predicted parametric values are substituted into the Gaussian distribution to generate flows of various return periods.     

新疆玛纳斯河流域的土地利用与退化问题

玛纳斯河流域山地、平原、沙漠、湖泊俱全，土地利用类型有8个一级类型及40个二级类。20世纪50年代以来，在山前水、土、光热组合优良地区开展大规模水土开发建设，使区内的土地资源得以充分利用，土地开发利用率达40％以上。然而，不合理的土地利用已经导致土地退化，其主要类型有土地荒漠化、耕地土壤贫瘠化、土壤次生盐渍化、土地沙漠化、水土流失、土地污染等6种。据区域土地利用特点与退化类型及原因，提出了合理利用土地与防止土地退化的5条措施，以确保玛河流域土地永续利用与持续发展。     

长三角一体化能重塑污染产业空间布局吗？

基于产业地理集中与分散的视角研究了长三角一体化进程中污染密集型产业的空间分布变化,本文探究一体化影响污染产业地理集中的内在逻辑与效果差异,并利用中国工业企业数据库对两者关系展开实证研究,得到如下结论：(1)长三角市场一体化和政府合作一体化能够促进污染产业地理集中度的不断下降,而环境规制一体化在阶段性地降低污染产业地理集中度后,又将引起污染产业地理集中度的再次上升。(2)在市场、制度建设和环境政策共同推动的长三角一体化过程中,长三角政府合作一体化更加显著地降低污染产业地理集中度。(3)异质性污染产业表现出差异化的地理集中倾向,高排放、高迁移成本以及高市场需求的污染产业更倾向于地理集中。     

Stewardship of Natural Resources: Definition, Ethical and Practical Aspects

Stewardship is potentially a usefulconcept in modernizing management philosophies. Use ofthe term has increased markedly in recent years, yetthe term is used loosely and rarely defined in landmanagement literature. The connections between thispractical usage and the ethical basis of stewardshipare currently poorly developed. The followingdefinition is proposed: ``Stewardship is theresponsible use (including conservation) of naturalresources in a way that takes full and balancedaccount of the interests of society, futuregenerations, and other species, as well as of privateneeds, and accepts significant answerability tosociety.' A religious interpretation would require thephrase ``and ultimately to God' to be added.Stewardship has both secular and religiousinterpretations and it will be desirable to developboth of these aspects in parallel. A task forphilosophers is to establish whether the ethical basisof stewardship is sufficient to address environmentalconcerns or whether it is necessary to embrace widerethical approaches. Stewardship occupies similarground to several other concepts of use and managementof resources, particularly sustainability. It canbuild on sustainability by encouraging a broader viewof who and what should benefit from managementactivity. In particular, it focuses attention on therole of managers in providing public benefit and onenvisaging other species as a form of ``stakeholder' inmanagement decisions. Stewardship is applicable acrossthe widest range of fields of resource use and alsohas relevance to aspects of land tenure and propertyrights. Application of stewardship will require someadjustments in the roles of private managers/ownersvis-à-vis government. It might providemanagers with an expanded role and, importantly, amore positive image, both of themselves and in theeyes of the public. Stewardship could alsobe developed in a way that has relevance to citizensin general (as opposed to managers and owners ofresources), through their interactions with naturalresources as consumers.     

Doubling sockeye salmon production in the Fraser River—Is this sustainable development?

We evaluate a proposal to double sockeye salmon production from the Fraser River and conclude that significant changes will be required to current management processes, particularly the way available catch is allocated, if the plan is to be consistent with five major principles embodied in the concept of sustainable development. Doubling sockeye salmon production will not, in itself, increase economic equity either regionally or globally. Developing nations may actually be hindered in their attempts to institute other, nonsalmon fisheries in the North Pacific Ocean as a result of the possible interception of salmon. Further, other users of the Fraser River basin will have to forgo opportunities so that salmon habitat can be conserved. If doubling sockeye salmon production is to meet the goal of doing more with less, it will be necessary to develop more efficient technologies to harvest the fish. If increasing salmon production is to reflect the integration of environmental and economic decision making at the highest level, then a serious attempt must be made to incorporate environmental assets into national economic accounting. Finally, to promote biodiversity and cultural self-sufficiency within the Fraser River basin, it will be important to safeguard the small, less-productive salmon stocks as well as the large ones and to allocate a substantial portion of the increased production to the Native Indian community.     

Comparative differences in Ontario farmers' environmental attitudes

This paper provides an analysis of a 1991 survey of the views of a stratified random sample of 1,105 Ontario farmers. Factor analysis, Kruskal—Wallis one-way ANOVA, chi-square and correlations were used to identify differences in farmers' attitudes toward rural environmental issues as a function of their demographic and farm characteristics. Younger, well-educated farmers, especially if female, were most concerned about the seriousness of rural environmental degradation. The largest operators expressed the greatest support for the use of agricultural chemicals, were most opposed to government conservation regulations and were least environmentally oriented. Such differences between Australian and Ontario farmers as the former's greater cautiousness about governmental regulation and receptivity to the Green Movement are a function of differing demographic and farm characteristics between Australia and Ontario.