ESTIMATED CONSUMPTIVE LOSS FROM MAN-MADE SNOW1

ABSTRACT: Consumptive loss of water attributable to man-made snowmaking was estimated using an energy balance model and a mass balance procedure. Data from nine field experiments at Colorado ski areas were collected and used in these models. The mean consumptive loss using the energy balance model for the nine experiments was 6.0 percent and 5.8 percent for the mass balance model A thermodynamic relationship and a regression equation were developed to provide a procedure to estimate consumptive loss as a linear function of atmospheric temperature.     

GENERATION OF DAILY PRECIPITATION OVER AN AREA1

ABSTRACT: A model was developed of the periodic-stochastic structure of daily precipitation over an area. The model is based ona multivariate normal distribution. The square roots of daily precipitation at a point were found to approximate a sample from a univariate normal distribution that had been truncated at zero. The zero daily precipitation amounts were considered negative amounts of unknown quantity. The multivariate normal distribution was used to describe the variation of daily precipitation over an area. The periodic fluctuations of the model parameters were described with Fourier series. The model was tested using data from two areas of different precipitation characteristics. Data generated with the model contained many of the statistical characteristics observed in the historical data.     

MISSISSIPPI EMBAYMENT AQUIFER SYSTEM IN MISSISSIPPI: GEOHYDROLOGIC DATA COMPILATION FOR FLOW MODEL SIMULATION1

ABSTRACT: As part of the Gulf Coast Regional Aquifer System Analysis (GC RASA) study, data from 184 geophysical well logs were used to define the geohydrologic framework of the Mississippi embayment aquifer system in Mississippi for flow model simulation. Five major aquifers of Eocene and Paleocene age were defined within this aquifer system in Mississippi. A computer data storage system was established to assimilate the information obtained from the geophysical logs. Computer programs were developed to manipulate the data to construct geologic sections and structure maps. Data from the storage system will be input to a five-layer, three-dimensional, finite-difference digital computer model that is used to simulate the flow dynamics in the five major aquifers of the Mississippi embayment aquifer system.     

Measuring Suspended‐Sediment Concentration and Turbidity in the Middle Mississippi and Lower Missouri Rivers Using Landsat Data

The Middle Mississippi River (MMR) and lower Missouri River (MOR) provide critical navigation waterways, ecological habitat, and flood conveyance. They are also directly linked to processes affecting geomorphic and ecological conditions in the lower MR and Delta. For this study, a method was developed to measure suspended‐sediment concentration (SSC) and turbidity along the MMR and the lower MOR using Landsat imagery. Data from nine United States Geological Survey water‐quality monitoring stations were used to create a model‐development dataset and a model‐validation dataset. Concurrent gaging data were identified for available Landsat images to generate the datasets. Surface‐reflectance filters were developed to eliminate images with cirrus cloud coverage or vessel traffic. Using the filtered model‐development dataset, unique reflectance‐SSC and reflectance‐turbidity models were developed for three Landsat sensors: Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager, Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus, and Landsat 4–5 Thematic Mapper. Coefficient of determination values for the models ranged from 0.72 to 0.88 for the model‐development dataset. The model‐validation dataset was used to evaluate the performance of the models and had coefficient of determination values ranging from 0.62 to 0.79.     

EVALUATION OF MANAGEMENT PRACTICES TO CONTROL AGRICULTURAL POLLUTANTS1

ABSTRACT: The objective of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of various land-use practices upon the production of nonpoint source pollutants from small agricultural watersheds in Northern Virginia. Pollutant production at each watershed was determined by individual monitoring stations. Data analysis consisted of a determination of the site specific pollutant yield for similar watersheds subjected to differing crop management approaches. These collected data were then compared to those generated by a parametric, event model developed for this investigation. This synthetic data base was used to eliminate or reduce errors resulting from monitoring site differences and to extend the collected data for additional comparisons.     

RESPONSE OF GREEN‐AMPT MEIN‐LARSEN SIMULATED RUNOFF VOLUMES TO TEMPORALLY AGGREGATED PRECIPITATION1

ABSTRACT: Data collection frequency in automated systems is user determined and can range from seconds to hours or days. Currently, there is no standard or recommended frequency interval for collecting precipitation data from automated systems for input to event‐based models such as Green‐Ampt Mein‐Larsen (GAML). Data from 47 storm events at seven locations were used to simulate the response of GAML excess rainfall to temporally aggregated precipitation data. No difference in model efficiency was recognized when comparing one‐minute interval data (R²= 1.00) to five‐minute data (R²= 1.00). Very little model efficiency was lost at a 10‐minute (R²= 0.96) interval. After 10‐minutes, decline in efficiency became more rapid with R²= 0.16 at one hour. The combined effect of time interval with respect to drainage area, hydraulic conductivity, maximum 30‐minute intensity, and total precipitation also revealed similar results.     

AN ASSESSMENT OF USES MADE OF A MULTIPURPOSE RESERVOIR'

ABSTRACT: Data were collected from residents of a rural community at two time periods to assess attitudes toward uses made of a reservoir which had been recently constructed in the area. The findings revealed that attitudes became significantly more favorable for flood control, water supply, and recreation uses of the reservoir. Attitudes toward fish and wildlife conservation use were not significantly different over time but these uses were perceived positively at both time periods. The data were also analyzed in the context of a vested interest perspective using cross-sectional design. The findings demonstrated that the theoretical model used to guide the investigation was quite useful in predicting attitudes toward the four uses examined.     

EFFECT OF FLOW VELOCITY ON SEDIMENT OXYGEN DEMAND: COMPARISON OF THEORY AND EXPERIMENTS1

ABSTRACT: Theoretical equations that establish the relationship between sediment oxygen demand (SOD) in a lake and the flow velocity and dissolved oxygen concentration in the bulk water already exist. These theoretical equations for oxygen consumption in the sediment express biological consumption with Michaelis-Menten kinetics, and chemical consumption by a first order reaction. Data from laboratory experiments that were conducted to validate the theoretical equations also exist. These experiments were performed in a laboratory channel with well defined flow characteristics for three types of sediments. Herein, the theoretical equations are used to model the experimental data for the three types of sediments. The values used for the parameters in the theoretical equations are determined by iteration until a best fit is obtained for the relationship of SOD to flow velocity from both the theoretical model and experimental data. The goodness of fit is measured by the standard error of prediction and the regression coefficient.     

A GIS-BASED MODELING APPROACH FOR EVALUATING GROUNDWATER VULNERABILITY TO PESTICIDES1

ABSTRACT: The Attenuation Factor (AF), a screening model, was used to evaluate the relative degree of vulnerability of groundwater to pesticide contamination in Louisa County, Virginia. For evaluating the contamination potential of pesticides, three scenarios of pesticide leaching represented by high, moderate, and low cases of degradation and sorption in the soil were considered. Data layers were overlaid within a Geographic Information System (GIS) for spatial computation of AF for the actual and 2m groundwater depths. This spatial database was divided into five contamination potential categories namely high, medium, low, very low, and unlikely, based on the numerical values of the AF for each cell (119 ha). The results for the three most mobile pesticides are presented in this paper. The performance of the AF model was evaluated by comparing its predicted results with the field data from an experimental watershed. The AF model was able to identify most of the frequently detected pesticides in the watershed. A sensitivity analysis was also performed. The results of this study provide information about the potential groundwater threat by pesticides to the citizens ahd decision-makers in the County and can be used for formulating an appropriate land use management plan to protect the groundwater quality.     

PREDICTING PEAK STREAM FLOW FROM AN UNDISTURBED WATERSHED IN THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS1

ABSTRACT: Data from a small forested catchment were used to model peak stream flow as a function of basic hydrologic variables associated with 112 rain storms. Rainfall depth and initial stream flow rate accounted for 87.1 percent of peak flow variability. Forty expressions of rainfall intensity (describing both the temporal sequence of intensity for 20 equal storm intervals, and maximum intensity for 20 separate interval lengths) were used in an attempt to improve the predictability of basic models. None of the intensity parameters improved predictability by as much as 2 percent, apparently because the most intense rainfall bursts generally occurred near the beginning of storm periods. Mean rainfall intensity for entire storms was generally as effective as any of the shorter interval intensities, and its use helped to linearize the relationship between peak flow and rainfall depth and duration.     

SUMMARY OF MODIFICATIONS OF THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY MODULAR,FINITE-DIFFERENCE,GROUND-WATER FLOW MODEL TO READ AND WRITE GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM FILES1

ABSTRACT: The U.S. Geological Survey modular, three-dimensional, finite-difference, ground-water flow model, commonly called MODFLOW, has been modified so that it can read and write files used by a geographic information system (GIS). The modified model program is called MODFLOWARC. The design of MODFLOWARC parallels the design of the ground-water flow model program MODFLOW. The names of the variables, modules, and submodules used to explain the operations of MODFLOWARC were derived from the names used in MODFLOW. During the data input phase, MODFLOWARC reads array control records similar to the original control records of MODFLOW, except an additional variable is added. This additional variable is the name of the computer files containing array data in GIS format. Data output is achieved by setting record/input flags and by supplying a variable that is the name of the directory where the output data will be recorded. The modifications to MODFLOW were minimized so that MODFLOWARC will operate on an existing ground-water flow model without modifying array control records.     

Comparison of Measured and MM5 Modeled Meteorology Data for Simulating Flow in a Mountain Watershed1

Herr, Joel W., Krish Vijayaraghavan, and Eladio Knipping, 2010. Comparison of Measured and MM5 Modeled Meteorology Data for Simulating Flow in a Mountain Watershed. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(6):1255–1263. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00489.x Abstract: Accurate simulation of time-varying flow in a river system depends on the quality of meteorology inputs. The density of meteorology measurement stations can be insufficient to capture spatial heterogeneity of precipitation, especially in mountainous areas. The Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework (WARMF) model was applied to the Catawba River watershed of North and South Carolina to simulate flow and water quality in rivers and a series of 11 reservoirs. WARMF was linked with the AMSTERDAM air model to analyze the water quality benefit from reduced atmospheric emissions. The linkage requires accurate simulation of meteorology for all seasons and for all types of precipitation events. WARMF was driven by the mesoscale meteorology model MM5 processed by the Meteorology Chemistry Interface Processor, which provides greater spatial density but less accuracy than meteorology stations. WARMF was also run with measured data from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) to compare the performance of the watershed model using measured data vs. modeled meteorology as input. A one year simulation using MM5 modeled meteorology performed better overall than the simulation using NCDC data for the volumetric water balance measure used for calibration, but MM5 represented precipitation from a dissipated hurricane poorly, which propagated into errors of simulated flow.     

Hydrologic and atrazine simulation of the Cedar Creek Watershed using the SWAT model

One of the major factors contributing to surface water contamination in agricultural areas is the use of pesticides. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a hydrologic model capable of simulating the fate and transport of pesticides in an agricultural watershed. The SWAT model was used in this study to estimate stream flow and atrazine (2-chloro-4-(ethylamino)-6-(isopropylamino)-s-triazine) losses to surface water in the Cedar Creek Watershed (CCW) within the St. Joseph River Basin in northeastern Indiana. Model calibration and validation periods consisted of five and two year periods, respectively. The National Agricultural Statistics Survey (NASS) 2001 land cover classification and the Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) database were used as model input data layers. Data from the St. Joseph River Watershed Initiative and the Soil and Water Conservation Districts of Allen, Dekalb, and Noble counties were used to represent agricultural practices in the watershed which included the type of crops grown, tillage practices, fertilizer, and pesticide application rates. Model results were evaluated based on efficiency coefficient values, standard statistical measures, and visual inspection of the measured and simulated hydrographs. The Nash and Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficients (E(NS)) for monthly and daily stream flow calibration and validation ranged from 0.51 to 0.66. The E(NS) values for atrazine calibration and validation ranged from 0.43 to 0.59. All E(NS) values were within the range of acceptable model performance standards. The results of this study indicate that the model is an effective tool in capturing the dynamics of stream flow and atrazine concentrations on a large-scale agricultural watershed in the midwestern USA.     

Estimation of Nonpoint Source Nitrate Concentrations in Indiana Rivers Based on Agricultural Drainage in the Watershed

Subsurface tile‐drained agricultural fields are known to be important contributors to nitrate in surface water in the Midwest, but the effect of these fields on nitrate at the watershed scale is difficult to quantify. Data for 25 watersheds monitored by the Indiana Department of Environmental Management and located near a U.S. Geological Survey stream gage were used to investigate the relationship between flow‐weighted mean concentration (FWMC) of nitrate‐N and the subsurface tile‐drained area (DA) of the watershed. The tile DA was estimated from soil drainage class, land use, and slope. Nitrate loads from point sources were estimated based on reported flows of major permitted facilities with mean nitrate‐N concentrations from published sources. Linear regression models exhibited a statistically significant relationship between annual/monthly nonpoint source (NPS) nitrate‐N and DA percentage. The annual model explained 71% of the variation in FWMC of nitrate‐N. The annual and monthly models were tested in 10 additional watersheds, most with absolute errors within 1 mg/l in the predicted FWMC. These models can be used to estimate NPS nitrate for unmonitored watersheds in similar areas, especially for drained agricultural areas where model performance was strongest, and to predict the nitrate reduction when various tile drainage management techniques are employed.     

An analysis of assessment outcomes from eight years' operation of the Australian border weed risk assessment system

The majority of Australian weeds are exotic plant species that were intentionally introduced for a variety of horticultural and agricultural purposes. A border weed risk assessment system (WRA) was implemented in 1997 in order to reduce the high economic costs and massive environmental damage associated with introducing serious weeds. We review the behaviour of this system with regard to eight years of data collected from the assessment of species proposed for importation or held within genetic resource centres in Australia. From a taxonomic perspective, species from the Chenopodiaceae and Poaceae were most likely to be rejected and those from the Arecaceae and Flacourtiaceae were most likely to be accepted. Dendrogram analysis and classification and regression tree (TREE) models were also used to analyse the data. The latter revealed that a small subset of the 35 variables assessed was highly associated with the outcome of the original assessment. The TREE model examining all of the data contained just five variables: unintentional human dispersal, congeneric weed, weed elsewhere, tolerates or benefits from mutilation, cultivation or fire, and reproduction by vegetative propagation. It gave the same outcome as the full WRA model for 71% of species. Weed elsewhere was not the first splitting variable in this model, indicating that the WRA has a capacity for capturing species that have no history of weediness. A reduced TREE model (in which human-mediated variables had been removed) contained four variables: broad climate suitability, reproduction in less or than equal to 1year, self-fertilisation, and tolerates and benefits from mutilation, cultivation or fire. It yielded the same outcome as the full WRA model for 65% of species. Data inconsistencies and the relative importance of questions are discussed, with some recommendations made for improving the use of the system.     

Gravity model formulation for an extensive National Parkway Site

The purpose of this study was to collect specific information on the characteristics and intensity of local Blue Ridge Parkway use and to use that information to develop a recreation use model of local Parkway visitation. Data were obtained from a self-administered mail-back questionnaire sent to a random sample of people living in the 29 counties adjacent to the Parkway.We developed two recreation use projection/demand models that employ three variables (distance, alternative recreation sites, and population density) to predict visitation to different Parkway areas from various local origins. The derived model estimates indicated that about one-fourth of all Parkway visits in 1978 were one-day visits made by area residents.     

AN ANALYSIS OF SEASONAL FECAL COLIFORM LEVELS IN THE TCHEFUNCTE RWER1

ABSTRACT: A model for estimating seasonal fecal coliform concentrations in the Tchefuncte River as a function of river discharge was developed. Data on fecal coliform concentration were obtained from the Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals and were available for a period of 15 years (1975 through 1992) from three locations. Stream flow data were obtained from a gaging station of the U. S. Geological Survey at Folsom, Louisiana. These data were available for 49 years (1943 through 1991). The climate of the area is characterized by different precipitation/runoff mechanisms for the summer and winter seasons. The division for seasons used in this analysis was May through October (summer season), and November through April (winter season). Because of the combined effects of climatic mechanisms causing precipitation and the seasonal variation of evapotranspiration, runoff is greater in the winter season resulting in higher fecal coliform counts in the Tchefuncte River. Statistical analysis revealed a statistically significant relationship between fecal coliform concentration and discharge for each season, at each of three sites on the Tchefuncte River.     

OPTIMAL RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT AND CROP PLANNING UNDER DETERMINISTIC AND STOCHASTIC INFLOWS1

ABSTRACT: This study analyzes planning under deterministic and stochastic inflows for the Mayurakshi project in India. Models are developed to indicate the optimal storage of reservoir water, the transfer of water to the producing regions, and the spillage of water from the reservoir, if needed. A deterministic programming model was first formulated to represent the existing situation. A chance-constrained model then was constructed to evaluate potential violations of the deterministic model. Both models were quantified for the command area. Data were collected from surveys of the area and from government agencies. Both the deterministic and change-constrained models suggest a more intensive cropping program in the region. Both emphasize more dependence on rabi and less on kharif crops. The chance-constrained especially suggests use of more water in the rabi season. Important chances in cropping programs and labor use take place under the chance-constrained model.     

APPLICATION OF THE DR3M WATERSHED MODEL ON A SMALL URBAN BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Data collected at a 79-acre urban watershed in Albuquerque, New Mexico, were used to calibrate and verify the Distributed Routing Rainfall-Runoff Model, a parametric watershed model. Standard errors of estimate for the 38 calibration storms were 33 percent and 38 percent, respectively, for volumes and peaks; and for the 46 verification storms were 29 percent and 37 percent, respectively, for volumes and peaks. Correlation coefficients for peaks were 0.8 and 0.95, respectively, for calibration and verification storms.     

MACROINVERTEBRATE COMMUNITY STRUCTURE AS A PREDICTOR OF WATER DURATION IN WISCONSIN WETLANDS1

ABSTRACT: Fifty‐four Wisconsin wetlands were surveyed in spring 1996 to determine relationships between macroinvertebrate community structure and a suite of 11 environmental attributes. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) showed that, after alkalinity, hydroperiod was the next most significant environmental factor influencing macroinvertebrate community structure within the wetlands sampled. CCA and direct gradient biplots were used to identify indicator taxa characteristic of the spring macroinvertebrate communities in persistent and ephemeral wetlands, and taxa characteristic of semi‐terrestrial habitats adjacent to wetlands. Two models were developed to permit the prediction of a wetland's hydroperiod class. One model assigns a range of probabilities that a wetland has a hydroperiod longer or shorter than eight months based on the occurrence or abundance of fairy shrimp, mayflies, scuds, mosquitoes, and phantom midges. A second model predicts that a wetland's hydroperiod is longer or shorter than five months based on the joint occurrences of seven persistent indicator taxa. Data used in both models were derived from a rapid bioassessment of three shoreline D‐frame net sweeps. The use of a coarse level taxonomic identification (primarily order and family) allows the approach to be performed in the field or laboratory. The macroinvertebrate models allow a manager to estimate a wetland's hydroperiod when long term water duration records do not exist. This ability is important to water resource managers because hydroperiod classification (i.e., water permanency) is one criterion used in differentiating wetlands from lakes in Wisconsin and because Wisconsin's legal system affords lakes substantially greater protection than wetlands.