IMPACT OF DROUGHT ON QUALITY OF POTENTIAL WATER SUPPLY SOURCES IN THE SANGAMON RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The analysis of stream flow and several water quality parameters in six Illinois rivers showed both deterioration and improvement in quality indicators during 1976–1977 drought. The adverse impacts were an increase of ammonia and manganese concentrations and, to a lesser degree, increased concentrations of phenol and specific conductance. At the worst point during the drought, the 12-month moving average of monthly ammonia concentration in the Sangamon River was about 620 percent higher than the antecedent value. On the other hand, average concentrations of nitrites and nitrates, total iron, and the number of coliform bacteria significantly decreased. This positive response suggests that streams which are considered unsuitable for municipal supply due to high levels of these quality indicators may be used as emergency sources during droughts.     

MODELING OF WATER SUPPLY/DEMAND IN THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN, 1970–20201

ABSTRACT: The application of a water balance model in finding “solutions” to the supply/demand problem was demonstrated using the South Platte River basin as a case study. Solutions were ascertained by hand, using both “average” and “stress” supply/demand conditions, and were developed for 1980, 2000, and 2020; nonquantifiable boundary conditions were incorporated by judgement. The solution obtained for a particular set of conditions is not unique and has strong normative characteristics; thus it must be judged by various interest groups having different ethical positions. The water balance model has a tabular display format and so the “model” is merely a simple table, i.e., a “water balance table.” In this work the water balance table was displayed on an eight-foot by eight-foot color-coded magnetic board. The board provides a means to both find and display the needed supply/demand “solution.” The tabular display facilitates understanding of the systemwide solution and the formulation of value judgments. Based upon these value judgments and an initial “straw man” solution, successive negotiated solutions can be found which can minimize “conflict.”     

ANTIDEGRADATION WATER QUALITY CRITERIA FOR THE DELAWARE RIVER: A DISTRIBUTION-FREE STATISTICAL APPROACH1

ABSTRACT: Existing water quality for the Middle Delaware Scenic and Recreational River is significantly better than is required by current standards, leaving a potential for degradation. A method is presented for deriving candidate antidegradation water quality criteria for this segment of the Delaware River using statistical analysis of historic (ambient) water quality data. Data for 34 water quality parameters are first evaluated for data density, serial correlation, trend, seasonality, and other factors. These preliminary analyses are based on observation of data plots and application of distribution-free statistical techniques that are insensitive to outliers and are robust to relatively mild violations of basic assumptions. Data for 12 of the parameters have sufficient density for further analysis and can reasonably be modeled as independent and identically distributed over time (either seasonally or for the entire data sets). For these 12 parameters, distribution-free statistical methods are developed and used to derive intervals within which there is high confidence (usually greater than 95 percent) that the quantiles with potential use as anti-degradation criteria (the 0.85^th, 0.90^th, and 0.95^th quantiles in this study) for a particular parameter lie.     

ANTIDEGRADATION WATER QUALITY CRITERIA FOR THE DELAWARE RIVER: A DISTRIBUTION-FREE STATISTICAL APPROACH1

ABSTRACT: Existing water quality for the Middle Delaware Scenic and Recreational River is significantly better than is required by current standards, leaving a potential for degradation. A method is presented for deriving candidate antidegradation water quality criteria for this segment of the Delaware River using statistical analysis of historic (ambient) water quality data. Data for 34 water quality parameters are first evaluated for data density, serial correlation, trend, seasonality, and other factors. These preliminary analyses are based on observation of data plots and application of distribution-free statistical techniques that are insensitive to outliers and are robust to relatively mild violations of basic assumptions. Data for 12 of the parameters have sufficient density for further analysis and can reasonably be modeled as independent and identically distributed over time (either seasonally or for the entire data sets). For these 12 parameters, distribution-free statistical methods are developed and used to derive intervals within which there is high confidence (usually greater than 95 percent) that the quantiles with potential use as anti-degradation criteria (the 0.85^th, 0.90^th, and 0.95^th quantiles in this study) for a particular parameter lie.     

SALINITY ISSUES AND WATER DEVELOPMENT IN THE GREEN RIVER BASIN,WYOMING1

Water development in the Green River Basin of Wyoming is projected to increase salinity downstream in the Green River and Colorado River, and thereby increase salinity costs to users of water from these two rivers. Despite these water quality and economic impacts to downstream water users, Wyoming will probably be able to develop its currently unused but allocated water supplies of the Green River Basin. The Colorado River Compact and Upper Colorado River Basin Compact are binding, and protect Wyoming's share of the Colorado River System waters for future use. The argument that water may be used to greater profit downstream is not sufficient to reduce Wyoming's allocation. In addition, the no-injury rule under the appropriation doctrine of law does not appear to protect prior downstream appropriations from increasing salinity in this case.     

TEMPORARY WATER TRANSFERS FOR DRY-YEAR WATER SUPPLY1

ABSTRACT: Temporary transfers of water for dry year water supply are analyzed for cost and operational feasibility. The temporary transfer is implemented as part of a water rights option agreement (WROA) between a lesson and a lessee. First, engineering analysis determines the technical feasibility and operations plan under the Colorado doctrine of prior appropriation. The cost of the WROA to a water utility is estimated. Other considerations in the agreement are discussed. The WROA is compared to other dry-year supply alternatives using a water system simulation model to obtain expected cost and operational performance characteristics.     

EVALUATION OF GREAT LAKES NET BASIN SUPPLY FORECASTS1

ABSTRACT: Evaluation of the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory's (GLERL's) physically-based monthly net basin supply forecast method reveals component errors and the effects of model improvements for use on the Laurentian Great Lakes. While designed for probabilistic outlooks, it is assessed for giving deterministic outlooks along with other net basin supply forecast methods of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and Environment Canada, and with a stochastic approach commissioned by the Corps. The methods are compared to a simple clima-tological forecast and to actual time series of net basin supplies. Aetual net basin supplies are currently determined by estimating all components directly, instead of as water-balance residuals. This is judged more accurate and appropriate for both forecasting and simulation. GLERL's physically-based method forecasts component supplies while the other methods are based on residual supplies. These other methods should be rederived to be based on component supplies. For each of these other methods, differences between their outlooks and residual supplies are used as error estimates for the rederived methods and component supplies. The evaluations are made over a recent period of record high levels followed by a record drought. Net basin supply outlooks are better than climatology, and GLERL's physically-based method performs best with regard to either component or residual net basin supplies. Until advances are made in long-range climate outlooks, deterministic supply outlooks cannot be improved significantly.     

INTERACTIONS BETWEEN GROUND WATER AND SURFACE WATER IN THE SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN,FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: Ground water and surface water constitute a single dynamic system in most parts of the Suwannee River basin due to the presence of karst features that facilitate the interaction between the surface and subsurface. Low radon-222 concentrations (below background levels) and enriched amounts of oxygen-18 and deuterium in ground water indicate mixing with surface water in parts of the basin. Comparison of surface water and regional ground water flow patterns indicate that boundaries for ground water basins typically do not coincide with surface water drainage subbasins. There are several areas in the basin where ground water flow that originates outside of the Suwannee River basin crosses surface water basin boundaries during both low-flow and high-flow conditions. In a study area adjacent to the Suwannee River that consists predominantly of agricultural land use, 18 wells tapping the Upper Floridan aquifer and 7 springs were sampled three times during 1990 through 1994 for major dissolved inorganic constituents, trace elements, and nutrients. During a period of above normal rainfall that resulted in high river stage and high ground water levels in 1991, the combination of increased amounts of dissolved organic carbon and decreased levels of dissolved oxygen in ground water created conditions favorable for the natural reduction of nitrate by denitrification reactions in the aquifer. As a result, less nitrate was discharged by ground water to the Suwannee River.     

EVALUATION OF PRACTICES IN WATER SUPPLY FORECASTING1

ABSTRACT: Snowmelt runoff is a primary source of water supply in much of the Western United States. Multipurpose planning requires long-range forecasts and the accuracy of the forecasts has a significant effect on economic benefits. In an effort to increase the accuracy of snowrnelt runoff forecasts, selected practices in water supply forecasting were evaluated. These practices include 1) using multiple regression in developing forecasting models;2) using a model that was calibrated to make forecasts an April 1 for making forecasts at other times;3) using maximum snow water equivalent measurements in forecast equations; and 4) using weighted snow water equivalent measurements for making forecasts. The results of a case study indicate that forecasting accuracy is significantly affected by these practices. Goodness-of-fit statistics may not be indicative of the accuracy of forecasts when the prediction equations are used to make forecasts for dates other than that used in calibration. The use of maximum snow water equivalentmeasurements and weighted averages did not improve forecast accuracy.     

CLIMATIC VARIATION AND SURFACE WATER RESOURCES IN THE GREAT BASIN REGION1

ABSTRACT: There is mounting evidence that increasing amounts of atmospheric carbon dioxide may lead to significant changes in global climate during the next century. The possible effects of such climatic changes on surface runoff in the Great Basin Region of the western United States has been investigated by applying water balance models to four watersheds in Nevada and Utah. The most probable change, a 2°C increase in average annual temperature coupled with a 10 percent decrease in precipitation, would reduce runoff from 17 to 28 percent of the present mean, with drier basins showing the greatest change. Decreasing precipitation by 25 percent causes runoff reductions of 33 to 51 percent. Equivalent changes to a cooler and wetter climate show corresponding increases in runoff of approximately the same magnitude, but such a shift is not considered likely. Based on projected water requirements for the year 2000, a change to a warmer and drier climate would cause severe water shortages in many parts of the Great Basin.     

IMPACT OF DROUGHT ON QUALITY IN A NEW JERSEY WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT. New Jersey, together with other states in the northeast, was stricken with drought during 1961-66. The effect of this drought was most severe in the northern part of the State. The water quality of the Passaic River, which drains the urban, industrialized northeast, perhaps deteriorated the most among the major drainage systems. This river system is used as a raw-water source by 10 water suppliers. The impact of the drought upon the water supply of the Passaic Valley Water Commission, the most downstream of the basin's suppliers, which supplies an average of about 90 million gallons a day to more than 650,000 persons, is evaluated herein. The drought's impact on the raw-water quality is appraised by the comparison of before-and-after qualities of dissolved solids, dissolved oxygen, biochemical-oxygen demand, turbidity, and hardness. For example, at the worst point during the drought, monthly average dissolved-solids content in the raw water were about 210 percent, hardness, about 167 percent, and biochemical-oxygen demand about 270 percent higher than antecedent values. In general, the study concludes that the drought produced a deterioration in both raw and finished water quality, and is estimated to have increased chemical-treatment costs during the drought by about $650,000.     

WATER SUPPLY IMPACTS OF NUCLEAR FALL1

ABSTRACT: “Nuclear winter,” more properly called “nuclear fall,” could be caused by injection of large amounts of dust into the atmosphere. Besides causing a decrease in temperature, it could be accompanied by “nuclear drought,” a catastrophic decrease in precipitation. Dry land agriculture would then be impossible, and municipal, industrial, and irrigation water supplies would be diminished. It has been argued that nuclear winter/fall poses a much greater threat to human survival than do fall out or the direct impacts of a conflict. However, this does not appear to be true, at least for the U.S. Even under the unprecedented drought that could result from nuclear fall, water supplies would be available for many essential activities. For the most part, ground water supplies would be relatively invulnerable to nuclear drought, and adequate surface supplies would be available for potable uses. This assumes that conveyance facilities and power supplies survive a conflict largely intact or can be repaired.     

WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT: THE CASE FOR RIVER BASIN AUTHORITIES1

ABSTRACT: There is a lamentable absence of comprehensive planning in the current cursade to improve water quality. A serious shortcoming is the lack of evaluation of the effects of waste water treatment upon environmental quality. At some point in time the public may ask what they have obtained for their money. The nature of pollution in a river basin demands a coordinated attack against it. Engineering and economic criteria suggest that a properly empowered river basin authority would be the logical organization to plan and operate a water quality management system. Several forms of such authorities have operated effectively and efficiently for many years in the United States and other industrialized countries. Examples of successful river basin authorities and their advantages and methods of operation are discussed.     

HYDROLOGIC EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE DELAWARE RWER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The Thornthwaite water balance and combinations of temperature and precipitation changes representing climate change were used to estimate changes in seasonal soil-moisture and runoff in the Delaware River basin. Winter warming may cause a greater proportion of precipitation in the northern part of the basin to fall as rain, which may increase winter runoff and decrease spring and summer runoff. Estimates of total annual runoff indicate that a 5 percent increase in precipitation would be needed to counteract runoff decreases resulting from a warming of 2°C; a 15 percent increase for a warming of 4°C. A warming of 2° to 4°C, without precipitation increases, may cause a 9 to 25 percent decrease in runoff. The general circulation model derived changes in annual runoff ranged from ?39 to +9 percent. Results generally agree with those obtained in studies elsewhere. The changes in runoff agree in direction but differ in magnitude. In this humid temperate climate, where precipitation is evenly distributed over the year, decreases in snow accumulation in the northern part of the basin and increases in evapotranspiration throughout the basin could change the timing of runoff and significantly reduce total annual water availability unless precipitation were to increase concurrently.     

ALTERNATIVES FOR SALINITY MANAGEMENT IN THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT The Colorado River Basin faces the dilemma of an increasing demand for water while presently struggling with salinity concentrations approaching critical levels for some water uses. Based upon projected development salinity concentrations are predicted to exceed 1200 mg/1 at Imperial Dam by the year 2010. Annual losses to the basin economy associated with increased salinity will exceed $50 million by the year 2010. Although methods of controlling salt discharges are relatively unrefined, certain conclusions, based upon Bayesian statistical methods, can be reached. Five basic alternatives for coping with the problem are presented and evaluated in this paper: (1) do nothing; (2) adopt arbitrary salinity standards; (3) limit development; (4) control salt discharges at a cost equal to the cost of doing nothing, or (5) minimize total costs to the basin. Total costs associated with any given alternative, or the given salinity resulting, are the sum of salinity detriments (cost to users for water of increased salinity plus economic multiplier effects) plus the cost of constructing salt discharge control works. These impacts upon basin economy and Colorado River water quality for each alternative are presented and related to questions of equity which will play a role in arriving at any long-term solution to the Basin's problem.     

THE EFFECTS OF RECENT CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ON THE HYDROLOGY OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER1

ABSTRACT: In North America the four successive winters from 1974-1975 through 1977–1978 were very different from each other in terms of atmospheric circulation and resulting surface weather conditions. The first year of the sequence there was a near normal circulation pattern. The following years were characterized by the gradual amplification of an upper atmosphere ridge over the West Coast coupled with an eastward displacement of a long-wave trough east of the Rocky Mountains. These changes in circulation brought below normal temperatures to the Midwest, below normal precipition and increasing snowfall which reached record levels in February 1978. These atmospheric changes brought about changes in the flow of the Kankakee River-Total runoff in the winter half-year dropped as precipitation and temperatures dropped; there was a marked retarding of winter runoff and the yield of the watershed increased.     

SYSTEMS ENGINEERING AND WATER RESOURCES IN SOUTHERN NEVADA1

ABSTRACT The Las Vegas Valley in southern Nevada has provided ample opportunity for mission oriented water resources research, and, to some extent, application of those research results. Past studies of the ground-water systems have resulted in the construction of a direct electrical analog, two digital simulation models, a Hele-Shaw fluid analog, a linear programming model, and two dynamic programming models. The work accomplished has dealt with the problems of groundwater management, waste water reclamation and artificial recharge, and conjunctive use water management. The current study is attempting to integrate previous results and new work into a detailed and realistic conjunctive use water resource management model to achieve system efficiency under more than one criteria. The research team is interdisciplinary in nature and encompasses the physical and social sciences.     

THE ENGINEER'S ROLE IN WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

Engineers have traditionally led the planning effort in water resources developments. The engineer's leadership role in water resources, as well as in many other planning activities, has been challenged by technical and scientific people as well as by the general public for insensitivity to social, aesthetic, ecological, and political problems created by planning. The paper draws attention to the fact that the engineer cannot continue to expect the role of leadership to fall to him unless he prepares himself properly for that role. However, it is brought out that the engineer, by his education and training, is still the best qualified among all the representatives of the various disciplines associated with water resources planning to lead the planning effort if he prepares himself for the task. The requirements for preparation for leading water resources planning are outlined.     

SURFACE WATER RESOURCES OF ST. JOHNS RIVER,FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: The St. Johns River basin is the largest watershed entirely within the State of Florida, and is one of the few northward flowing rivers in the United States. The river basin contains 11,431 square miles, of which 9,430 square miles are drained by the river and its tributaries. The remainder drains into the Atlantic Ocean or the Intracoastal Waterway. Its largest sub-basin is the Oklawaha River basin, which has a drainage area of 2,870 square miles. Ground elevations range from sea level to 200 feet above mean sea level in the main river basin and as high as 300 feet above mean sea level in the Oklawaha River basin. This study was designed to investigate the surface water resources of the St. Johns River and the existing consumptive uses. The analysis revealed that the river is an extremely large and valuable resource which has been under-utilized and could play a much stronger role in serving the needs of the people in the basin.