FORECASTING FUTURE LAND USE FOR WATERSHED ASSESSMENT1

ABSTRACT: Protecting surface water quality in watersheds undergoing demographic change requires both the management of existing threats and planning to address potential future stresses arising from changing land use. Many reservoirs and threatened waterbodies are located in areas undergoing rapid population growth, and increases in density of residential and commercial land use, accompanied by increased amount of impervious surface area, can result in increased pollutant loading and degradation of water quality. Effective planning to address potential threats, including zoning and growth management, requires analytical tools to predict and compare the impacts of different management options. The focus of this paper is not on developing demographic projections, but rather the translation of such projections into changes in land use which form the basis for assessment of future watershed loads. Land use change can be forecast at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. A semi-lumped, GIS-based, transition matrix approach is recommended as consistent with the level of complexity achievable in most watershed models. Practical aspects of forecasting future land use for watershed assessment are discussed. Several recent reservoir water supply projection studies are used to demonstrate a general framework for simulating changes in land use and resulting impacts on water quality. In addition to providing a technical basis for selecting optimal management alternatives, such a tool is invaluable for demonstrating to different stakeholder groups the trade-offs among management alternatives, both in terms of water quality and future land use patterns within the watershed.     

EFFECTS OF SCALE ON LAND USE AND WATER QUALITY RELATIONSHIPS: A LONGITUDINAL BASIN‐WIDE PERSPECTIVE1

ABSTRACT: Human land use is a major source of change in catchments in developing areas. To better anticipate the long‐term effects of growth, land use planning requires estimates of how changes in land use will affect ecosystem processes and patterns across multiple scales of space and time. The complexity of biogeochemical and hydrologic interactions within a basin makes it difficult to scale up from process‐based studies of individual reaches to watershed scales over multiple decades. Empirical models relating land use/land cover (LULC) to water quality can be useful in long‐term planning, but require an understanding of the effects of scale on apparent land use‐water quality relationships. We empirically determined how apparent relationships between water quality and LULC data change at different scales, using LIJLC data from the Willapa Bay watershed (Washington) and water quality data collected along the Willapa and North Rivers. Spatial scales examined ranged from the local riparian scale to total upstream catchment. The strength of the correlations between LTJLC data and longitudinal water quality trends varied with scale. Different water quality parameters also varied in their response to changes in scale. Intermediate scales of land use data generally were better predictors than local riparian or total catchment scales. Additional data from the stream network did not increase the strength of relationships significantly. Because of the likelihood of scale‐induced artifacts, studies quantifying land use‐water quality relationships performed at single scales should be viewed with great caution.     

BEST MANAGEMENT PRACTICES FOR STORM WATER AND INFILTRATION CONTROL1

ABSTRACT: Water quality controls of storm water runoff and infiltration should be a major part of a nonpoint source control program. Although surface runoff and ground water controls are often approached separately, coordination between the two is essential. For practical reasons, a rather simplified technology-based approach appears to be desirable. Areas affected vary greatly as to their sensitivity to pollution; and the various classes of pollutant source vary greatly as to their potential harmfulness. In effect, a matrix approach appears best, in which both vulnerability of the area and harmfulness of the pollutant source would have weight in determining which level of best management practices (BMP) would be appropriate, whether standard, special, or complete prohibition of the type facility under given circumstances.     

MINIMIZING THE IMPACT OF URBANIZATION ON LONG TERM RUNOFF1

Increasing concern about the problems caused by urban sprawl has encouraged development and implementation of smart growth approaches to land use management. One of the goals of smart growth is water resources protection, in particular minimizing the runoff impact of urbanization. To investigate the magnitude of the potential benefits of land use planning for water resources protection, possible runoff impacts of historical and projected urbanization were estimated for two watersheds in Indiana and Michigan using a long term hydrological impact analysis model. An optimization component allowed selection of land use change placements that minimize runoff increase. Optimizing land use change placement would have reduced runoff increase by as much as 4.9 percent from 1973 to 1997 in the Indiana study watershed. For nonsprawl and sprawl scenarios in the Michigan watershed for 1978 to 2040, optimizing land use change placement would have reduced runoff increase by 12.3 percent and 20.5 percent, respectively. The work presented here illustrates both an approach to assessing the magnitude of the impact of smart growth and the significant potential scale of smart growth in moderating runoff changes that result from urbanization. The results of this study have significant implications for urban planning.     

RUNOFF POLLUTION FROM MULTIPLE FAMILY HOUSING1

ABSTRACT: Increasingly, residential development in urbanizing areas is accomplished by large housing projects, composed of clusters of townhouses or garden partments. It is hypothesized that the runoff from such developments should carry more pollution than that from the same number of housing units on separate plots, because the runoff is conveyed directly to drainage channels rather than being drained across lawns and gardens, which may absorb part of the pollutants. In order to evaluate this effect, storm event data were obtained from a planned unit development near Hightstown, N. J., using samples taken every 10 minutes throughout the storm at two different storm sewers. Results show heavy metals pollution about what had been anticipated, in accordance with the hypothesis given above, and BOD ammonia and phosphates higher than predicted. The results are significant for areawide water quality planning in metropolitan areas, where projections of future pollution loadings depends upon the land use.     

Hydrologic Sensitivity to Climate and Land Use Changes in the Santiam River Basin,Oregon

Future changes in water supply are likely to vary across catchments due to a river basin's sensitivity to climate and land use changes. In the Santiam River Basin (SRB), Oregon, we examined the role elevation, intensity of water demands, and apparent intensity of groundwater interactions, as characteristics that influence sensitivity to climate and land use changes, on the future availability of water resources. In the context of water scarcity, we compared the relative impacts of changes in water supply resulting from climate and land use changes to the impacts of spatially distributed but steady water demand. Results highlight how seasonal runoff responses to climate and land use changes vary across subbasins with differences in hydrogeology, land use, and elevation. Across the entire SRB, water demand exerts the strongest influence on basin sensitivity to water scarcity, regardless of hydrogeology, with the highest demand located in the lower reaches dominated by agricultural and urban land uses. Results also indicate that our catchment with mixed rain‐snow hydrology and with mixed surface‐groundwater may be more sensitive to climate and land use changes, relative to the catchment with snowmelt‐dominated runoff and substantial groundwater interactions. Results highlight the importance of evaluating basin sensitivity to change in planning for planning water resources storage and allocation across basins in variable hydrogeologic settings.     

MANAGEMENT MODEL FOR CONTROLLING NITRATE CONTAMINATION IN THE NEW JERSEY PINE BARRENS AQUIFER1

ABSTRACT: Land use planning in rapidly developing areas can serve as an effective tool for minimizing water quality impacts on ground water supplies. A land use management model applied to Jackson Township of the New Jersey Pine Barrens was developed. The management model consisted of a simulation model for the transport of nitrates from septic tank systems through the aquifer and a multiobjective, goal programming optimization model to determine population density restrictions using 208 areawide planning population projections. Results showed that growth may have to be curtailed in several areas of Jackson Township and that current population projections over the next 30 years may result in unacceptably high nitrate concentrations downgradient of Jackson Township. The management framework provides a flexible approach to land use planning.     

ASSESSING LAND USE IMPACTS ON WATER QUALITY USING MICROBIAL SOURCE TRACKING1

ABSTRACT: A renewed emphasis on source water protection and watershed management has resulted from recent amendments and initiatives under the Safe Drinking Water Act and the Clean Water Act. Knowledge of the impact of land use choices on source water quality is critical for efforts to properly manage activities within a watershed. This study evaluated qualitative relationships between land use and source water quality and the quantitative impact of season and rainfall events on water quality parameters. High levels of specific conductance tended to be associated with dense residential development, while organic carbon was elevated at several forested sites. Turbidity was generally higher in more urbanized areas. Source tracking indicators were detected in samples where land use types would predict their presence. Coliform levels were statistically different at the 95 percent confidence levels for winter versus summer conditions and dry versus wet weather conditions. Other water quality parameters that varied with season were organic carbon, turbidity, dissolved oxygen, and specific conductance. These results indicate that land use management can be effective for mitigating impacts to a water body; however, year‐ round, comprehensive data are necessary to thoroughly evaluate the water quality at a particular site.     

GOAL-ORIENTED AGRICULTURAL WATER QUALITY LEGISLATION1

ABSTRACT: While significant nonpoint source (NIPS) pollution control progress has been made since passage of Section 319 in the 1987 Water Quality Act, existing federal legislation does not provide for the most timely and cost-effective NIPS pollution reduction. In this paper, we use findings from the Rural Clean Water Program and other nationwide agricultural NIPS pollution control programs, building on legislative history to recommend a coordinated and efficient direction for agricultural water quality legislation. A collaborative framework should be established to accomplish the goals of the Clean Water Act (CWA), Coastal Zone Management Act (CZMA), and the Conservation Title of the Farm Bill. Valuable elements of the 1990 CZMA amendments that created a coastal NIPS program should be subsumed into the CWA. The CWA should reemphasize use of receiving water quality criteria and standards and should allow states flexibility to tailor basin-scale NPS program implementation to local needs. Implementation should involve targeting of NIPS pollution control efforts to critical land treatment areas and use of systems of best management practices to address these targeted water quality problems. The 1995 Farm Bill should reorient production incentives toward water quality to support the collaborative framework, implementing ecologically sound source reduction principles. The Farm Bill and the CWA should contain interrelated provisions for voluntary, incentive-assisted producer participation and fallback regulatory measures. Such coordinated national water quality and Farm Bill legislation that recognizes the need for flexibility in state implementation is supported as the most rational and cost-effective means of attaining water quality goals.     

Soil erosion and non-point source pollution impacts assessment with the aid of multi-temporal remote sensing images

Soil erosion associated with non-point source pollution is viewed as a process of land degradation in many terrestrial environments. Careful monitoring and assessment of land use variations with different temporal and spatial scales would reveal a fluctuating interface, punctuated by changes in rainfall and runoff, movement of people, perturbation from environmental disasters, and shifts in agricultural activities and cropping patterns. The use of multi-temporal remote sensing images in support of environmental modeling analysis in a geographic information system (GIS) environment leading to identification of a variety of long-term interactions between land, resources, and the built environment has been a highly promising approach in recent years. This paper started with a series of supervised land use classifications, using SPOT satellite imagery as a means, in the Kao-Ping River Basin, South Taiwan. Then, it was designed to differentiate the variations of eight land use patterns in the past decade, including orchard, farmland, sugarcane field, forest, grassland, barren, community, and water body. Final accuracy was confirmed based on interpretation of available aerial photographs and global positioning system (GPS) measurements. Finally, a numerical simulation model (General Watershed Loading Function, GWLF) was used to relate soil erosion to non-point source pollution impacts in the coupled land and river water systems. Research findings indicate that while the decadal increase in orchards poses a significant threat to water quality, the continual decrease in forested land exhibits a potential impact on water quality management. Non-point source pollution, contributing to part of the downstream water quality deterioration of the Kao-Ping River system in the last decade, has resulted in an irreversible impact on land integrity from a long-term perspective.     

Forecasting land use change and its environmental impact at a watershed scale

Urban expansion is a major driving force altering local and regional hydrology and increasing non-point source (NPS) pollution. To explore these environmental consequences of urbanization, land use change was forecast, and long-term runoff and NPS pollution were assessed in the Muskegon River watershed, located on the eastern coast of Lake Michigan. A land use change model, LTM, and a web-based environmental impact model, L-THIA, were used in this study. The outcomes indicated the watershed would likely be subjected to impacts from urbanization on runoff and some types of NPS pollution. Urbanization will slightly or considerably increase runoff volume, depending on the development rate, slightly increase nutrient losses in runoff, but significantly increase losses of oil and grease and certain heavy metals in runoff. The spatial variation of urbanization and its impact were also evaluated at the subwatershed scale and showed subwatersheds along the coast of the lake and close to cities would have runoff and nitrogen impact. The results of this study have significant implications for urban planning and decision making in an effort to protect and remediate water and habitat quality of Muskegon Lake, which is one of Lake Michigan's Areas of Concern (AOC), and the techniques described here can be used in other areas.     

POLICY OBJECTWES AND ECONOMIC INCENTWES FOR CONTROLLING AGRICULTURAL SOURCES OF NONPOINT POLLUTION1

In this paper, we review the physical characteristics of agricultural non point pollution and discuss the implications for setting appropriate pollution control objectives and designing incentive-based pollution control policies. First, we discuss that policy objectives must be designed carefully to ensure positive economic net benefits can be expected from pollution control. Next, we review several classes of incentives and recommend the use of design-based incentives (i.e., incentives based on variable input use, management practices, and land use) for controlling non point pollution. Cost-effectiveness requires that incentives elicit three types of responses from farmers: (1) use variable inputs at appropriate levels, (2) adopt appropriate management practices, and (3) make appropriate land use decisions at the extensive margin of production. If a set of incentives fails to induce the correct responses, the resulting runoff levels and hence ambient pollution levels and damages will be too large relative to policy goals. A review of existing programs suggests that greater program coordination and improved targeting of incentives are needed for further water quality improvements. Alternatively, properly designed market-based systems may be effective alternatives. These systems would reduce overall pollution control costs by allowing markets to allocate point source and non point source control costs more efficiently.     

ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION OF SURFACE RUNOFF IN AN URBANIZING WATERSHED USING SATELLITE IMAGERY1

ABSTRACT: This paper demonstrates how satellite image data [e.g., from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM)], in conjunction with an urban growth model and simple runoff calculations, can be used to estimate future surface runoff and, by implication, water quality within a watershed. To illustrate the method, predictions of land use change and surface runoff are shown for Spring Creek Watershed, a medium sized urbanizing watershed in Central Pennsylvania. Land cover classifications for this watershed were created from images for summertime 1986 and 1996 and subsequently used as input to the Clarke urban growth model, called SLEUTH, to predict land use changes to the year 2025. Simulations with this model show a progressive growth in the percentage of urban pixels and in impervious surface area in the watershed but also an increase in woodland, primarily in previously clear‐cut areas. Given that woodland area will continue to increase in area, surface runoff into Spring Creek is predicted to remain only slightly above present level. However, should the woodland amount fail to increase, surface runoff is then predicted to increase more significantly during the next 25 years. Finally, the concept of urban sprawl is addressed within the context of predicted increases in urbanization by relating the implied increase in impervious surface area to population density within the watershed.     

MODELING NITROGEN TRANSPORT IN THE IPSWICH RIVER BASIN,MASSACHUSETTS, USING A HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION PROGRAM IN FORTRAN (HSPF)1

ABSTRACT: Increased riverine nitrogen (N) fluxes have been strongly correlated with land use changes and are now one of the largest pollution problems in the coastal region of the United States. In the present study, the Hydrological Simulation Program‐FORTRAN (HSPF) is used to simulate transport of N in the Ipswich River basin in Massachusetts and to evaluate the effect of future land use scenarios on the water quality of the river. Model results show that under a land use change scenario constructed with restrictions from environmental protection laws, where 44 percent of the forest in the basin was converted to urban land, stream nitrate concentrations increased by about 30 percent of the present values. When an extreme land use scenario was used, and 100 percent of the forest was converted to urban land, concentrations doubled in comparison to present values. Model simulations also showed that present stream nitrate concentrations might be four times greater than they were prior to urbanization. While pervious lands with high density residential land use generated runoff with the highest N concentrations in HSPF simulations, the results suggested that denitrification in the riparian zone and wetlands coupled with the hydrology of the basin are likely to control the magnitude of nitrate loads to the aquatic system. The simulation results showed that HSPF can predict the general patterns of inorganic N concentrations in the Ipswich River and tributaries. Nevertheless, HSPF has some difficulty simulating the extreme variability of the observed data throughout the main stem and tributaries, probably because of limitations in the representation of wetlands and riparian zones in the model, where N processes such as denitrification seem to play a major role in controlling the transport of N from the terrestrial system to the river reaches.     

Turbidity and nitrate transfer in karstic aquifers in rural areas: the Brionne Basin case-study

The degradation of water quality in many groundwaters of Europe is a major source of concern. Rises in turbidity and nitrate concentrations represent present or potential threats for the quality of drinking water in rural areas. They are for the most part a consequence of agricultural intensification which has considerably affected land cover and land use in recent decades. In our case-study (a karstic catchment) the mechanisms which explain changes in water quality, as far as turbidity and nitrate are concerned, result from a strong continuity between surface and underground waters. The karstic system of the Brionne Basin can be considered as both the focus of rapid horizontal flows (runoff, a rapid process in which rainwater reaches the spring directly through sinkholes) and slow vertical flows (leaching, in which rainwater filters through the soil to the spring). A hierarchical approach to the water pollution problem of the basin suggests that turbidity or nitrate concentrations peak during heavy rain episodes and are short-term events. In terms of management, this implies that the solution to water pollution caused by such events is also short-term and can therefore be addressed at a local scale. The rise of nitrate concentrations during the past twenty years is the main concern. The solution can only be found at a global scale (all the catchment area must be taken in account: land plots and their spatial configuration), and by taking a long-term approach.     

A WATER RESOURCE PLANNING PROCEDURE FOR RURAL TOWNS1

ABSTRACT: Six new techniques have been developed for lake watershed analysis and water resource management. The techniques are for determining: (1) watershed land use intensity with reference to water quality, (2) lake vulnerability, (3) water quality, (4) watershed carrying capacity, (5) the economic value of the lake, and (6) the potential of undeveloped lake-shore. These analyses are designed for use by rural planning commissions with guidance and assistance from state agencies and the state university. The comprehensive rural watershed land and water use plan developed by this procedure is inexpensive in time and money, understandable by the layman, and scientificially sound. It is based on presently available information. This water resource planning procedure has been demonstrated in several town planning projects. It is suggested that this method, or modification of it, could be adopted in all rural states by action by a few administrators and without any new enabling or appropriations legislation.     

OPTIMIZING NONPOINT SOURCE CONTROLS IN WATER QUALITY REGULATION1

ABSTRACT: A stochastic programming framework is developed to evaluate the economic implications of reliability criteria and multiple effluent controls on nonpoint source pollution. An integrated watershed simulation model is used to generate probability distributions for agricultural effluents in surface and ground water resulting from agricultural practices. Results from the planning model indicate that reliability and multiple effluent constraints significantly increase the cost of nonpoint controls but the effects vary by control alternative. The analysis indicates that an evaluation of multiple water quality objectives can be an important planning tool for designing nonpoint source controls for innovative programs to promote cost-effective water quality regulation.     

THE IMPACT OF RUNOFF GENERATION MECHANISMS ON THE LOCATION OF CRITICAL SOURCE AREAS1

ABSTRACT: Identifying phosphorus (P) source areas and transport pathways is a key step in decreasing P loading to natural water systems. This study compared the effects of two modeled runoff generation processes ‐ saturation excess and infiltration excess ‐ on total phosphorus (TP) and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) concentrations in 10 catchment streams of a Catskill mountain watershed in southeastern New York. The spatial distribution of runoff from forested land and agricultural land was generated for both runoff processes; results of both distributions were consistent with Soil Conservation Service‐Curve Number (SCS‐CN) theory. These spatial runoff distributions were then used to simulate stream concentrations of TP and SRP through a simple equation derived from an observed relation between P concentration and land use; empirical results indicate that TP and SRP concentrations increased with increasing percentage of agricultural land. Simulated TP and SRP stream concentrations predicted for the 10 catchments were strongly affected by the assumed runoff mechanism. The modeled TP and SRP concentrations produced by saturation excess distribution averaged 31 percent higher and 42 percent higher, respectively, than those produced by the infiltration excess distribution. Misrepresenting the primary runoff mechanism could not only produce erroneous concentrations, it could fail to correctly locate critical source areas for implementation of best management practices. Thus, identification of the primary runoff mechanism is critical in selection of appropriate models in the mitigation of nonpoint source pollution. Correct representation of runoff processes is also critical in the future development of biogeochemical transport models, especially those that address nutrient fluxes.     

Managing stormwater for urban sustainability: an evaluation of local comprehensive plans in the Chesapeake Bay watershed region

This study uses a developed plan coding protocol in evaluating the quality of 76 comprehensive plans to examine whether local comprehensive plans have adequately integrated the concepts of sustainable stormwater management. The Chesapeake Bay watershed was chosen for the investigation because degraded stormwater runoff from nearby urban and suburban jurisdictions have critically polluted the watershed. The findings indicate that the majority of local governments have not sufficiently incorporated the sustainable stormwater management principles into their comprehensive plans. Five plan components (factual basis, goals and objectives, inter-organizational cooperation, policies, tools and strategies, and implementation) appear weak in realizing the concepts. The current study concludes by providing policy implications and recommendations to increase awareness and understanding of sustainable stormwater management concepts and to produce better implementation plans that integrate stormwater, ecosystem, and environmental planning comprehensively.     

加拿大污染场地土壤质量指导值对我国建设用地土壤污染风险管控标准制修订的启示

针对我国建设用地土壤污染风险管控标准存在的保护目标单一、毒理学基础数据库有待完善、缺少因地制宜的地方标准及统一的标准制定规程等问题,本文研究了加拿大联邦及其省级土壤质量指导值分级制定技术规程,梳理了加拿大污染场地修复目标值的确定方法。在此基础上,从保护人体健康与保护生态环境并重、提升建设用地土壤污染风险管控标准的基础研究水平、研究基于地方实际的建设用地土壤污染风险管控标准和出台统一的标准制定规程文件等四个方面提出对策建议,以期为我国建设用地土壤污染风险管控标准制修订提供参考。