基于信息扩散理论的气象灾害风险分析方法研究

由于传统方法在气象灾害风险分析实际应用中的分析结果与实际情况相关系数较低,提出基于信息扩散理论的气象灾害风险分析方法。选取致灾危险性、承灾体脆弱性、承灾体暴露性以及区域防灾抗灾能力作为气象灾害风险因子,利用信息扩散理论对气象灾害风险因子数据信息进行集值化处理,扩大样本数据容量,利用评价函数对气象灾害风险定性分析,确定气象灾害等级。经实验证明,设计方法分析结果与实际情况相关系数平均值为0.97,分析结果具有较高的可信度,在气象灾害风险分析方面具有良好的应用前景,能够为气象灾害风险分析提供有力的理论支撑,有助于提高应对气象灾害的能力,避免遭受更大的经济损失。     

青海省东部地区交通气象灾害风险普查分析

文章以青海省东部地区主要路段为气象灾害风险普查对象,通过现场调查法、问卷调查法、专家评估法及统计分析法,针对挑选确定的隐患点气象灾害风险情况进行了统计分析。结果显示:所普查交通沿线的主要气象灾害为道路结冰、强降水和积雪,衍生的次生灾害为塌方、泥石流等。气象灾害风险点路基岩土类型大部为砂土和碎石土,植被覆盖率分布极不均匀,道路形态为弯道或坡道。隐患点致灾气象因子临界值,由强降水造成路面有明显积水的临界值为24h降雨量达10mm;降雪天气致灾因子临界值为24h降雪量2.5mm;道路结冰灾害影响临界值为路面结冰持续时间大于等于2d。     

洪水灾害风险评价研究综述

洪水灾害是当今世界最严重的自然灾害之一,带来了巨大的人员伤亡和经济损失。洪水灾害风险评价是科学有效地防洪减灾的前提和基础。文章对洪水灾害风险相关概念进行了界定,从气象、水文水力、社会经济、遥感与GIS和土地利用5个方面对洪水灾害风险评价的常用方法进行了评述,并列出了常用的评价因子。最后指出了未来研究的可能发展方向。     

黄河上游青海段暴雨洪涝气象灾害风险评估技术研究与应用

用1984~2015年黄河上游青海段16个气象测站有气象灾情记录以来的暴雨洪涝灾情资料,初步探讨了暴雨洪涝气象灾害风险评估的理论依据、主要评估基点,并应用马尔可夫模型和统计决策理论建立了风险评估数学模型、风险函数以及最优决策。以黄河上游青海地区贵德测站为例,说明了整个评估中的基本计算操作过程,其结果在暴雨洪涝灾害灾前风险评估中有一定的参考价值。     

1956--2005年上海气象灾害时空变化分析

根据上海市历史气象灾害资料,对1956---2005年上海5种气象灾害的时空变化特征进行了分析。结果表明：①从时问变化来看,气象灾害年际变化呈波动上升趋势;从各灾种来看,1956--1985年影响上海的5种气象灾害发生的次数基本均衡,而1986—2005年暴雨洪涝和大风两种灾害成为影响上海的主要气象灾害。②从空间变化上看,浦东新区和崇明县为气象灾害高发区,而闵行区和金山区为低发区;对各灾种来说,除暴雨洪涝的发生次数和频度在市区最高外,其余4种气象灾害均是在浦东新区最高,而暴雨洪涝是各区发生次数和频度最高的,龙卷风则是最低的。     

1956-2005年上海气象灾害时空变化分析

根据上海市历史气象灾害资料,对1956-2005年上海5种气象灾害的时空变化特征进行了分析.结果表明:①从时间变化来看,气象灾害年际变化呈波动上升趋势;从各灾种来看,1956-1985年影响上海的5种气象灾害发生的次数基本均衡,而1986-2005年暴雨洪涝和大风两种灾害成为影响上海的主要气象灾害.②从空间变化上看,浦东新区和崇明县为气象灾害高发区,而闵行区和金山区为低发区;对各灾种来说,除暴雨洪涝的发生次数和频度在市区最高外,其余4种气象灾害均是在浦东新区最高,而暴雨洪涝是各区发生次数和频度最高的,龙卷风则是最低的.     

秦皇岛区域几类极端天气、气候灾害的特征分析及防灾减灾探讨

秦皇岛区域是气象灾害频发地区，危害最大的有冰雹、暴雨、干旱、洪涝等。通过对秦皇岛地区48年来比较典型的极端天气事件和气候灾害的统计分析，找出极端天气和气候灾害的演变规律，为建立有效的气象灾害监测、预警系统，完善、提高防灾减灾体系提供参考，对提高当地社会和经济，抵御气象灾害的能力，减轻气象灾害具有重要意义。     

环境风险评价构架的探讨

本文归纳并概括了国际上和我国环境风险评价的一般构架,从环境风险评价、安全评价、健康评价、生态评价、最大可信灾害事故及最大可接受水平等几个方面对我国环境风险评价一般构架进行了探讨,分析了我国环境风险评价构架中存在的问题,提出了进一步完善我国环境风险评价一般构架的方法,并辅以了案例分析。     

生态系统能够降低自然灾害风险

近日,2012年度《世界风险报告》在比利时布鲁塞尔发布。《报告》称,人类发展已经使潜在风险大幅增加。目前,人类需要进行大量科学研究,了解自然生态系统、降低风险和防止各种灾害。报告举例说,珊瑚礁以及东南亚滨海红树林等生态系统的消失,降低了防护洪水和风暴潮的能力;巴基斯坦长期的滥砍乱伐致使土壤流失、洪水肆虐、频发山体滑坡等地质灾害。报告警告     

莆田市气象灾害及减灾对策研究

根据近17年的莆田市气候影响评价资料,结合实地调查,对莆田市台风、暴雨、冰雹、干旱、寒潮等主要气象灾害的基本特点进行了分析。研究表明,近17年莆田市危害最大的气象灾害是台风灾害,其次为洪涝灾害,揭示了几种主要气象灾害之间的相互关系,并提出相应的减灾对策。     

Community resilience to natural disasters in the informal settlements in Mwanza City,Tanzania

The impacts of natural disasters on communities living in hazard prone areas are wide ranging and complex. In Mwanza, steep slopes, rocky hills and river valleys are inhabited by society's poorest people. These areas are prone to natural disasters. Residents have accumulated coping mechanisms for disaster risks and impact reduction. We combine spatial data, household surveys and data from focus groups to identify and rank areas based on their exposure to major disasters. We also examine household and communal mitigation efforts in relation to these disasters. Most areas of the city are exposed to at least one of the natural disasters studied. Pre- and post-disaster risk reduction measures are influenced by the site of homesteads and the socioeconomic situation of households. Current resilience measures are skewed towards the development of physical infrastructure. The challenge of reducing disaster risks in Mwanza involves recognizing the role of non-infrastructure based factors that promote urban resilience to natural disasters.     

Disaster preparedness and perception of flood risk: A study in an alpine valley in Italy

Italy is a country highly vulnerable to floods and landslides. The present study aims to investigate disaster preparedness and perception of flood risk in a group of people living in an alpine valley in the north of Italy. Four hundred seven adult residents in nine communities exposed to hydrogeological risk were interviewed by using a structured questionnaire. Participants were asked about the adoption of a set of protective behaviors that can prevent negative consequences of floods. Perception of flood risk was assessed by means of a one-dimensional scale that was developed and validated by the authors. Items included in this scale asked participants to estimate likelihood of occurrence of different flood consequences and to express feelings of worry associated to them. Socio-demographic and experiential information on respondents were also collected. Overall, results showed that most of respondents were fairly well prepared to deal with a future flood disaster. Correlational and regression analyses indicated that disaster preparedness was positively associated with risk perception. In accordance with literature, there was not a significant relation between likelihood judgments and adoption of protective behaviors, while feelings of worry were associated with disaster preparedness. Authors interpret their results in relation to the socio-environmental characteristics of the studied communities. Theoretical, empirical and practical implications of the findings are also discussed.     

The sense of snow – Individuals’ perception of fatal avalanche events

This empirical paper aims at examining individuals’ risk perception in the context of an environmental disaster. Risk is defined as probability of dying in a snow avalanche. Risk perception is analyzed from two different perspectives: (i) individuals’ estimate of the average avalanche risk and (ii) the perceived personal avalanche risk. The perception of personal risk is summarized in an ordered categorical variable, average risk perception is captured by a measurement previously used in risk communication that results in a continuous variable. The variation in risk perception observed is examined by using individual leisure activities (skiing) and the timing of the survey (fall vs. winter) as proxies for frequency, familiarity, controllability, voluntariness, and beneficiary of risk exposure and by including several individual specific characteristics such as age, gender, education, income. The results show that risk as well as individual specific characteristics are significant determinants of participants’ perception of risk but their relevance differs depending on whether the focus is on perception of average risk or of personal risk.     

Disaster governance and community resilience: reflections on Typhoon Morakot in Taiwan

Typhoon Morakot triggered flooding and mudslides in various areas and devastated Aboriginal villages located near areas under construction by the Water Diversion Project in Kaohsiung County. This paper examines the controversy surrounding Typhoon Morakot in Taiwan from the perspective of disaster governance. This study provides competing perspectives regarding who was responsible for causing the disaster. Post-disaster reconstruction initiatives by the government tend to adopt a technical approach to risk, and do not incorporate the complex social and cultural dimensions of vulnerability and sustainability. This perspective reflects misrecognition problems, and the lack of empowerment and participation in governance by residents, as well as their exclusion in decision making. Aboriginal civic groups have various methods of interacting with local residents to alleviate the suffering of survivors, promoting tribal culture and building resilient communities. This continuing development of social interactions and new forms of engagement will effectuate transformation and contribute to broader reflections on the Morakot disaster and social capability and building resilience.     

基于结构方程模型的环境风险接受度影响因素分析

随着社会经济的发展和城市化进程的推进,我国环境风险事故频发。与此同时,公众对于美好环境的需求日益提升,公众与专家和政府之间的风险判断差异是不同规模的群体性事件发生的主要诱因。为识别公众环境风险接受度的影响因素,本研究基于结构方程模型分析了11种环境风险的客观风险水平和公众感知到的风险影响度、场域了解度、政府信任度、社会经济水平等因素对公众风险接受度的影响。研究结果显示,社会经济水平、风险影响度、场域了解度、政府信任度均直接影响公众的风险接受度;客观风险水平则通过风险影响度的中介作用间接影响风险接受度。因此,为在经济发展过程中降低公众风险感知偏差对生产生活的影响,我国除了通过更严格的风险管控手段降低风险事故发生概率和影响范围外,还需要通过信息公开、公众参与和生态科普等方式增强公众对风险场域的了解度和对政府的信任度以提升风险接受能力。     

跨江桥梁项目环境风险概率计算及影响因素分析

跨江大桥项目由于存在对跨越水体水环境影响的特征,故而应该就风险概率的限制因素进行深入的分析.跨江桥梁对项目区域水环境风险产生的最大可信事故是危化品在跨越水体时发生事故进而产生侧翻、坠河、泄露等引起的对水环境的影响,本次研究在对项目区域交通事故基础数据统计的基础上,计算得到了具有代表性的事故概率基数,并在综合考虑了车型比、道路线形特征、事故区域及形态比例、防护措施等各项限制因素的情况下,计算出了大桥项目发生最大可信事故的概率.     

Farmers’ risk preference and the adoption of risk management strategies in Northern Ghana

The study used the hypothetical lottery-choice questions to measure risk aversion and a detailed survey collected data on input use, farm production and non-farm activities to specifically assess whether risk aversion, risk perceptions, and socioeconomic factors affect the risk management strategies of farm households in Northern Ghana. Risk aversion significantly increases crop diversification strategies of households but marginally reduces herbicide use by households. Market risk significantly increases the use of improved seed varieties and the application of inorganic fertiliser but reduces diversification into livestock production. Production risk largely increases diversification into livestock production. Farmers’ risk management strategies are affected by socioeconomic variables such as access to extension services, area cultivated, age and gender. Policy effort focused on building pliable on-farm crop related risk management strategies should aim at considering the risk aversion and the perception of market risk whilst those focused on livestock should focus on production risk.     

皖江流域及其以南地区的血吸虫病害度区划

皖江流域及其以南地区是安徽省血吸虫病害的主要区域。本文通过对血吸虫病害的孕灾环境,致灾因子和承灾体的分析,探讨了血吸虫病害的区划指标,并进行了病害度分区。