Spatial variations of human health risk associated with exposure to chlorination by-products occurring in drinking water

During disinfection, chlorine reacts with organic matter present in drinking water and forms various undesirable chlorinated by-products (CBPs). This paper describes a study of the spatial variability of human health risk (i.e., cancer effects) from CBP exposure through drinking water in a specific region. The region under study involves nine drinking water distribution systems divided into several zones based on their characteristics. The spatial distribution of cancer risk (CR) was estimated using two years of data (2006-2008) on various CBP species. In this analysis, trihalomethanes (THMs) and haloacetic acids (HAAs) served as surrogates for CBPs. Three possible routes of exposure (i.e., via ingestion, inhalation and dermal contact) were considered for each selected compound. The cancer risk assessment involved estimating a unit risk (R(T)) in each zone of the selected distribution systems. A probabilistic analysis based on Monte Carlo simulations was employed. Risk assessment results showed that cancer risk varied between systems, but also within individual systems. As a result, the population of the same region was not exposed to the same risk associated with CBPs in drinking water. Unacceptable levels (i.e., R(T) > 10(-4)) for the estimated CR were determined for several zones in the studied region. This study demonstrates that a spatial-based analysis performed to represent the spatial distribution of risk estimates can be helpful in identifying suitable risk management strategies. Suggestions for improving the risk analysis procedure are also presented.     

Uncertainty characterization approaches for risk assessment of DBPs in drinking water: A review

The management of risk from disinfection by-products (DBPs) in drinking water has become a critical issue over the last three decades. The areas of concern for risk management studies include (i) human health risk from DBPs, (ii) disinfection performance, (iii) technical feasibility (maintenance, management and operation) of treatment and disinfection approaches, and (iv) cost. Human health risk assessment is typically considered to be the most important phase of the risk-based decision-making or risk management studies. The factors associated with health risk assessment and other attributes are generally prone to considerable uncertainty. Probabilistic and non-probabilistic approaches have both been employed to characterize uncertainties associated with risk assessment. The probabilistic approaches include sampling-based methods (typically Monte Carlo simulation and stratified sampling) and asymptotic (approximate) reliability analysis (first- and second-order reliability methods). Non-probabilistic approaches include interval analysis, fuzzy set theory and possibility theory. However, it is generally accepted that no single method is suitable for the entire spectrum of problems encountered in uncertainty analyses for risk assessment. Each method has its own set of advantages and limitations. In this paper, the feasibility and limitations of different uncertainty analysis approaches are outlined for risk management studies of drinking water supply systems. The findings assist in the selection of suitable approaches for uncertainty analysis in risk management studies associated with DBPs and human health risk.     

Do disinfection byproducts in drinking water have an effect on human cancer risk worldwide? A meta‐analysis

In the present study, a meta‐analysis was carried out to clarify the association between disinfection byproducts (DBPs) in drinking water and human cancer risk worldwide. Kidney, colorectal, esophagus, urinary bladder, brain, breast, leukemia, lung, and rectum cancers were selected to perform this analysis. According to preferred reporting items for systematic review and meta‐analysis protocol (PRISMA) guidelines, the relevant studies were identified and selection criteria (inclusion and exclusion criteria) were applied. Next, effective subgroups in these studies (gender, type of drinking water source, and type of DBPs) were analyzed. The quality of the studies was evaluated using the Newcastle‐Ottawa Scale. In addition, this overall study included analyses of 16 case–control and 3 cohort studies. The overall odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) between DBPs and cancer risk was 1.01 (95% CI, 0.94–1.09). The summary ORs of cancer risk were 1.04 (95% CI, 0.89–1.19) for kidney; 0.98 (95% CI, 0.87–1.09) for colorectal; 1.07 (95% CI, 0.84–1.29) for esophagus; 0.93 (95% CI, 0.80–1.06) for pancreatic; 1.00 (95% CI, 0.83–1.18) for brain; 1.13 (95% CI, 0.99–1.26) for breast; 0.93 (95% CI, 0.72–1.13) for leukemia; and 1.18 (95% CI, 1–1.36) for lung cancers. The results of this meta‐analysis suggested that there is not a significant association between DBPs in water and cancer risk. In addition, subgroup analysis shows a positive association with colorectal and kidney cancer risk in men, as well as colon and breast cancers in females. Studies of both genders have shown a significant association between lung and pancreatic cancers. Moreover, this study finds a significant relationship between cancer rate and consumers of city water and bottled water sources. In analyzing different types of DBPs in water, chlorine and trichloromethane show a significant association in increasing cancer risk.     

Dissolved organic carbon and disinfection by-product precursor release from managed peat soils

A wetland restoration demonstration project examined the effects of a permanently flooded wetland on subsidence of peat soils. The project, started in 1997, was done on Twitchell Island, in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta of California. Conversion of agricultural land to a wetland has changed many of the biogeochemical processes controlling dissolved organic carbon (DOC) release from the peat soils, relative to the previous land use. Dissolved organic C in delta waters is a concern because it reacts with chlorine, added as a disinfectant in municipal drinking waters, to form carcinogenic disinfection byproducts (DBPs), including trihalomethanes (THMs) and haloacetic acids (HAAs). This study explores the effects of peat soil biogeochemistry on DOC and DBP release under agricultural and wetland management. Results indicate that organic matter source, extent of soil organic matter decomposition, and decomposition pathways all are factors in THM formation. The results show that historical management practices dominate the release of DOC and THM precursors. However, within-site differences indicate that recent management decisions can contribute to changes in DOC quality and THM precursor formation. Not all aromatic forms of carbon are highly reactive and certain environmental conditions produce the specific carbon structures that form THMs. Both HAA and THM precursors are elevated in the DOC released under wetland conditions. The findings of this study emphasize the need to further investigate the roles of organic matter sources, microbial decomposition pathways, and decomposition status of soil organic matter in the release of DOC and DBP precursors from delta soils under varying land-use practices.     

Reactivity of litter leachates from California oak woodlands in the formation of disinfection by-products

Litter materials from forested watersheds can be a significant source of dissolved organic matter (DOM) to surface waters that can contribute to the formation of carcinogenic disinfection by-products (DBPs) during drinking-water chlorination. This study characterized the reactivity of DOM from litter leachates of representative vegetation in oak woodlands, a major plant community in the Foothill Region of California. Leachates from fresh and decomposed litter (duff) from two oak species, pine, and annual grasses were collected for an entire rainy season to evaluate their reactivity to form DBPs on chlorination. Relationships among specific ultraviolet absorbance (SΔUVA), fluorescence index (FI), specific differential ultraviolet absorbance (SΔUVA), specific chlorine demand (SCD), and the dissolved organic carbon:dissolved organic nitrogen (DOC:DON) ratio to the specific DBP formation potential (SDBP-FP) were examined. The DOM derived from litter materials had considerable reactivity in forming trihalomethanes (THMs) (1.80-3.49 mmol mol), haloacetic acid (HAAs) (1.62-2.76 mmol mol(-1)), haloacetonitriles (HANs) (0.12-0.37 mmol mol(-1)), and chloral hydrate (CHD) (0.16-0.28 mmol mol). These values are comparable to other identified watershed sources of DBP precursors reported for the California Delta, such as wetlands and organic soils. Vegetation type and litter decomposition stage (fresh litter versus 1-5 yr-old duff) were key factors that determined characteristics of DOM and their reactivity to form DBPs. Pine litter had significantly lower specific THM formation potential compared with oak and grass, and decomposed duff had a greater DON content, which is a precursor of HANs and other nitrogenous DBPs. The SΔUVA and SDBP-FP were temporally variable and dependent on vegetation type, degree of decomposition, and environmental conditions. Among the optical properties of DOM, SΔUVA was the only parameter that was consistently correlated with SDBP-FP.     

FUZZY DECISION MAKING IN GROUND WATER NITRATE RISK MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: Ground water nitrate contamination is widespread in the United States and especially prevalent in agriculture-intensive areas such as the Midwest. To reduce human health risks (i.e., methemoglobinemia and cancer risks) from nitrates in ground water supplies, several nitrate risk-management strategies can be developed based on acceptable levels of human health risks, the reasonableness of the cost required for risk reduction, and the technical feasibility of nitrate-control methods. However, due to a lack of available information, assessing risk, cost, and technical feasibility contains elements of uncertainty. In this paper, a nitrate risk-management methodology using fuzzy sets in combination with a multicriterion decision-making (MCDM) technique is developed to assist decision makers in evaluating, with uncertain information, possible regulatory actions along with the various nitrate risk-management strategies in order to determine an appropriate strategy. The methodology is illustrated using data from a community with a nitrate water-quality problem.     

Options for management of municipal solid waste in New York City: a preliminary comparison of health risks and policy implications

Landfill disposal and waste-to-energy (WTE) incineration remain the two principal options for managing municipal solid waste (MSW). One critical determinant of the acceptability of these options is the different health risks associated with each. In this analysis relying on published data and exposure modeling, we have performed health risk assessments for landfill disposal versus WTE treatment options for the management of New York City's MSW. These are based on the realistic scenario of using a waste transfer station (WTS) in Brooklyn and then transporting the untreated MSW by truck to a landfill in Pennsylvania or using a WTE facility in Brooklyn and then transporting the resultant ash by truck to a landfill in Pennsylvania. The overall results indicate that the individual cancer risks for both options would be considered generally acceptable, although the risk from landfilling is approximately 5 times greater than from WTE treatment; the individual non-cancer health risks for both options would be considered generally unacceptable, although once again the risk from landfilling is approximately 5 times greater than from WTE treatment. If one considers only the population in Brooklyn that would be directly affected by the siting of either a WTS or a WTE facility in their immediate neighborhood, individual cancer and non-cancer health risks for both options would be considered generally acceptable, but risks for the former remain considerably higher than for the latter. These results should be considered preliminary due to several limitations of this study such as: consideration of risks only from inhalation exposures; assumption that only volume and not composition of the waste stream is altered by WTE treatment; reliance on data from the literature rather than actual measurements of the sites considered, assuming comparability of the sites. However, the results of studies such as this, in conjunction with ecological, socioeconomic and equity considerations, should prove useful to environmental managers, regulators, policy makers, community representatives and other stakeholders in making sound and acceptable decisions regarding the optimal handling of MSW.     

Assessment of tropical suburban surface soils contamination from Jengka,Malaysia

Heavy metals in suburban soils pose both indirect and direct health risks. This study assessed the concentrations of Cr, Zn, Pb, and Cd in Jengka (Malaysia) suburban soil and estimated the human health risk. Health risk assessment (HRA) was utilized to assess non-cancer and cancer risks. The concentrations of heavy metals increased in the following order: Cd < Zn < Cr < Pb. The heavy metals were found to be divided into two components using principal component analysis (PCA), with PC1 comprising Pb and Cd and PC2 containing Zn and Cr. PC1 originates from anthropogenic sources, while PC2 is often from mixed anthropogenic and natural sources. Despite having the lowest mean concentration, Cd was enriched based on the geo-accumulation index (Igeo) and enrichment factor (EF). Average hazard index values were below the acceptable threshold (HI < 1) for dermal and inhalation pathways suggesting a low non-cancer risk. Jengka suburban soil had total lifetime cancer risk values slightly higher than the acceptable threshold (1 × 10⁻⁵). Skin contact was the most prominent contributing exposure pathway for both non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks. This study suggests that heavy metal bioactivity levels be used to make a plausible HRA of heavy metal pollution in suburban soils.     

Risk assessment of aquifer storage transfer and recovery with urban stormwater for producing water of a potable quality

The objective of the Parafield Aquifer Storage Transfer and Recovery research project in South Australia is to determine whether stormwater from an urban catchment that is treated in a constructed wetland and stored in an initially brackish aquifer before recovery can meet potable water standards. The water produced by the stormwater harvesting system, which included a constructed wetland, was found to be near potable quality. Parameters exceeding the drinking water guidelines before recharge included small numbers of fecal indicator bacteria and elevated iron concentrations and associated color. This is the first reported study of a managed aquifer recharge (MAR) scheme to be assessed following the Australian guidelines for MAR. A comprehensive staged approach to assess the risks to human health and the environment of this project has been undertaken, with 12 hazards being assessed. A quantitative microbial risk assessment undertaken on the water recovered from the aquifer indicated that the residual risks posed by the pathogenic hazards were acceptable if further supplementary treatment was included. Residual risks from organic chemicals were also assessed to be low based on an intensive monitoring program. Elevated iron concentrations in the recovered water exceeded the potable water guidelines. Iron concentrations increased after underground storage but would be acceptable after postrecovery aeration treatment. Arsenic concentrations in the recovered water continuously met the guideline concentrations acceptable for potable water supplies. However, the elevated concentration of arsenic in native groundwater and its presence in aquifer minerals suggest that the continuing acceptable residual risk from arsenic requires further evaluation.     

Time‐Dependent Health Risk from Contaminated Groundwater Including Use of Reliability,Resilience, and Vulnerability as Measures

Traditionally, assessment of human health risk caused by contamination of a water supply focuses on the maximum risk to an individual. Here, we introduce a time‐dependent risk assessment method and adapt and explore the reliability, resilience, and vulnerability (RRV) criteria from the surface‐water literature as possible tools for assessing this risk. Time‐dependent risk assessment, including RRV, is applied to two synthetic examples where water quality at a well varies over time. We calculate time‐dependent health risks for discrete periods of exposure to the contaminated water for a variable population. The RRV criteria provide information about time‐dependent risk: probability of an acceptable risk, probability of system recovery, maximum risk, and average exceedance of a prescribed risk threshold. The results demonstrate that episodic contamination events produce fundamentally different time‐dependent risks than long‐term events: these differences, such as generally lower risks for the episodic contamination, can be captured via plots of the risk and the RRV criteria. Furthermore, the evaluation of time‐dependent health risk and the RRV criteria demonstrates significant sensitivity to the shape of the contaminant breakthrough curve, length of exposure, and variability within the population. Overall, analysis of time‐dependent health risks provides substantial insight into the structure of risk, with RRV providing a reasonable framework for the evaluation of these risks.     

Relative cancer risks of chemical contaminants in the great lakes

Anyone who drinks water or eats fish from the Great Lakes consumes potentially carcinogenic chemicals. In choosing how to respond to such pollution, it is important to put the risks these contaminants pose in perspective. Based on recent measurements of carcinogens in Great Lakes fish and water, calculations of lifetime risks of cancer indicate that consumers of sport fish face cancer risks from Great Lakes contaminants that are several orders of magnitude higher than the risks posed by drinking Great Lakes water. But drinking urban groundwater and breathing urban air may be as hazardous as frequent consumption of sport fish from the Great Lakes. Making such comparisons is difficult because of variation in types and quality of information available and in the methods for estimating risk. Much uncertainty pervades the risk assessment process in such areas as estimating carcinogenic potency and human exposure to contaminants. If risk assessment is to be made more useful, it is important to quantify this uncertainty.     

Characterization of haloacetic acid precursors in source water

Raw water from the Bangkok (Thailand) main municipal water supply canal was examined for its natural organic composition by fractionation with adsorption resins. DAX-8 resin was the first resin employed to fractionate the hydrophobic fractions. Fractionation at neutral pH resulted in the separation of the hydrophobic neutral components; at a high pH level (approx. 10) separation of the hydrophobic base components occurred; and at a low pH level (approx. 2) the hydrophobic acid components were separated. AG-MP-50 cationic resin was then used to separate the hydrophilic base components, and WA-10, a weak anionic resin, was applied finally to fractionate the hydrophilic acid and neutral components. Subsequently, each fraction was tested for its chlorine disinfection by-product (DBP) formation potential. The HAA formation tests demonstrated that the various organic fractions had different reactivity levels for the formation of haloacetic acids (HAAs). For this source water, the hydrophilic neutral fraction dominated over the other five fractions in being the main organic component and the most significant precursor of HAAs formation. On the other hand, in terms of specific HAA formation potential (FP), the hydrophobic and hydrophilic base fractions were the most reactive precursors to the formation of HAAs. In all cases, the quantity of HAAs formed depended linearly upon the amount of organic constituents in the water sample.     

An imprecise fuzzy risk approach for water quality management of a river system

Uncertainty plays an important role in water quality management problems. The major sources of uncertainty in a water quality management problem are the random nature of hydrologic variables and imprecision (fuzziness) associated with goals of the dischargers and pollution control agencies (PCA). Many Waste Load Allocation (WLA) problems are solved by considering these two sources of uncertainty. Apart from randomness and fuzziness, missing data in the time series of a hydrologic variable may result in additional uncertainty due to partial ignorance. These uncertainties render the input parameters as imprecise parameters in water quality decision making. In this paper an Imprecise Fuzzy Waste Load Allocation Model (IFWLAM) is developed for water quality management of a river system subject to uncertainty arising from partial ignorance. In a WLA problem, both randomness and imprecision can be addressed simultaneously by fuzzy risk of low water quality. A methodology is developed for the computation of imprecise fuzzy risk of low water quality, when the parameters are characterized by uncertainty due to partial ignorance. A Monte-Carlo simulation is performed to evaluate the imprecise fuzzy risk of low water quality by considering the input variables as imprecise. Fuzzy multiobjective optimization is used to formulate the multiobjective model. The model developed is based on a fuzzy multiobjective optimization problem with max–min as the operator. This usually does not result in a unique solution but gives multiple solutions. Two optimization models are developed to capture all the decision alternatives or multiple solutions. The objective of the two optimization models is to obtain a range of fractional removal levels for the dischargers, such that the resultant fuzzy risk will be within acceptable limits. Specification of a range for fractional removal levels enhances flexibility in decision making. The methodology is demonstrated with a case study of the Tunga–Bhadra river system in India.     

A Comparative Approach for Ranking Contaminated Sites Based on the Risk Assessment Paradigm Using Fuzzy PROMETHEE

A ranking system for contaminated sites based on comparative risk methodology using fuzzy Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE) was developed in this article. It combines the concepts of fuzzy sets to represent uncertain site information with the PROMETHEE, a subgroup of Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods. Criteria are identified based on a combination of the attributes (toxicity, exposure, and receptors) associated with the potential human health and ecological risks posed by contaminated sites, chemical properties, site geology and hydrogeology and contaminant transport phenomena. Original site data are directly used avoiding the subjective assignment of scores to site attributes. When the input data are numeric and crisp the PROMETHEE method can be used. The Fuzzy PROMETHEE method is preferred when substantial uncertainties and subjectivities exist in site information. The PROMETHEE and fuzzy PROMETHEE methods are both used in this research to compare the sites. The case study shows that this methodology provides reasonable results.     

Uncertainty modelling in multi-criteria analysis of water safety measures

Water utilities must assess risks and make decisions on safety measures in order to obtain a safe and sustainable drinking water supply. The World Health Organization emphasises preparation of water safety plans, in which risk ranking by means of risk matrices with discretised probability and consequence scales is commonly used. Risk ranking enables prioritisation of risks, but there is currently no common and structured way of performing uncertainty analysis and using risk ranking for evaluating and comparing water safety measures. To enable a proper prioritisation of safety measures and an efficient use of available resources for risk reduction, two alternative models linking risk ranking and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are presented and evaluated. The two models specifically enable uncertainty modelling in MCDA, and they differ in terms of how uncertainties in risk levels are considered. The need of formal handling of risk and uncertainty in MCDA is emphasised in the literature, and the suggested models provide innovations that are not dependent on the application domain. In the case study application presented here, possible safety measures are evaluated based on the benefit of estimated risk reduction, the cost of implementation and the probability of not achieving an acceptable risk level. Additional criteria such as environmental impact and consumer trust may also be included when applying the models. The case study shows how safety measures can be ranked based on preference scores or cost-effectiveness and how measures not reducing the risk enough can be identified and disqualified. Furthermore, the probability of each safety measure being ranked highest can be calculated. The two models provide a stepwise procedure for prioritising safety measures and enable a formalised handling of uncertainties in input data and results.     

Planning Agricultural Water Resources System Associated With Fuzzy and Random Features1

Li, Y.P. and G.H. Huang, 2011. Planning Agricultural Water Resources System Associated With Fuzzy and Random Features. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):841‐860. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00558.x Abstract: More and more regions where demand outstrips water resources availability have suffered from chronic severe shortages. It is particularly aggravated for agricultural irrigation systems where more water is necessary to support the rapidly increasing population and speedily developing economy. In this study, a two‐stage fuzzy‐stochastic programming (TFSP) method is developed for planning agricultural water resources management system in more efficient and sustainable ways. The developed method can address uncertain parameters described as probability distributions and fuzzy sets. It can also be used for analyzing various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences since penalties are exercised with recourse actions against any infeasibility. The developed method is applied to agricultural water‐resources management planning of the Zhangweinan River Basin, China. Solutions under various α‐cut levels and fuzzy dominance indices can be generated by solving a series of deterministic submodels, which can help determine optimized crop‐target values that could hedge appropriately against future available water levels. The results are helpful for water resources managers in not only making decisions of crop irrigation but also gaining insight into the tradeoffs between economic objective and system‐failure risk.     

基于模糊数学的矿业城市地表水污染风险评价

根据模糊数学方法,建立了水污染风险模糊综合评价数学模型,以煤炭资源型城市阜新为研究对象,选取辽河流域阜新段1996～2005年枯水期和丰水期水质状况平均值进行水污染风险评价。旨在定量分析评价阜新地区地表水环境质量现状和存在的问题。结果表明：辽河阜新段水质在1996～2005年间波动较大,呈水质日益恶化的状态。水体主要污染物为有机物、氨氮和溶解性铁,总体来说各污染物变化规律各不相同,总磷、BOD5、溶解性铁呈递增趋势,其他污染物质都呈波动性变化。     

Interactive two-stage stochastic fuzzy programming for water resources management

In this study, an interactive two-stage stochastic fuzzy programming (ITSFP) approach has been developed through incorporating an interactive fuzzy resolution (IFR) method within an inexact two-stage stochastic programming (ITSP) framework. ITSFP can not only tackle dual uncertainties presented as fuzzy boundary intervals that exist in the objective function and the left- and right-hand sides of constraints, but also permit in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic penalties when the promised policy targets are violated. A management problem in terms of water resources allocation has been studied to illustrate applicability of the proposed approach. The results indicate that a set of solutions under different feasibility degrees has been generated for planning the water resources allocation. They can help the decision makers (DMs) to conduct in-depth analyses of tradeoffs between economic efficiency and constraint-violation risk, as well as enable them to identify, in an interactive way, a desired compromise between satisfaction degree of the goal and feasibility of the constraints (i.e., risk of constraint violation).     

Sustainable rangeland management using a multi-fuzzy model: how to deal with heterogeneous experts' knowledge

While fuzzy specialists commonly use homogeneous experts' knowledge to construct fuzzy models, it is much more difficult to deal with knowledge elicited from a heterogeneous group of experts. This issue is exemplified in the area of sustainable rangeland management (SRM). One way to deal with the diversity of opinions is to develop a fuzzy system for all experts and to combine all these, the so-called primary systems, into one multi-fuzzy model. To derive each of the primary fuzzy systems, several semi-structured interviews were held in three different areas of the Fars province in Southwest Iran using the knowledge of a group of administrative experts. To obtain the final output of the multi-fuzzy model, we applied different 'voting' methods. The first method simply uses the arithmetic average of the primary outputs as the final output of the multi-fuzzy model. This final output represents an estimation of the right rate of stocking (RRS). We also propose other (un)supervised voting methods. Most importantly, by harmonising the primary outputs such that outliers get less emphasis, we introduce an unsupervised voting method for calculating a weighted estimate of the RRS. This harmonising method is expected to provide a new useful tool for policymakers dealing with heterogenity in experts' opinions: it is especially useful where limited field data are available and one is forced to rely on experts' knowledge only. By constructing the three fuzzy models based on the elicitation of heterogeneous experts' knowledge, our study shows the multidimensional vaguenesses that exist in SRM. Finally, by comparing the final RRS with its common values, this study strongly points to the existence of overgrazing in pastures in the three regions of the Fars province in Southwest Iran.