能源供应安全视角下中印生物质能源利用的比较

中国和印度是世界上两个人口最多的国家,中印两国作为世界上两个能源消费大国,如何满足众多人口和经济快速增长对能源的需求,以及提供安全的能源供应是中国和印度都在考虑并试图解决的紧迫问题,分析印度的生物能源利用政策对我国有重要的现实意义和参考价值。我国在1993年成为石油净进口国,1994年我国进口的原油仅为290×104t,进口依赖度为1.9%。到2009年我国石油净进口量为21 888.5×104t,进口原油的依赖度上升到了52.5%。我国日益增加的对国际石油市场的依赖对我国能源安全供应构成了极大的风险和挑战。我国在"十一五"期间,在生物质能源的利用上取得了很大的成绩。但还存在一些问题,主要问题是原料来源和成本不稳定、缺乏统筹规划、发电上网制度不完善、相关政策配套措施和实施细则不完善等因素在一定程度上影响了生物质能产业的发展。印度政府积极支持的生物质利用技术,包括利用清洁发展机制大量开发的生物质能CDM项目,这类项目大约占印度全部注册CDM项目的三分之一左右。印度从能源多元化供应的角度和扶持乡村可持续发展的角度上开发利用生物质能项目的实践是值得我国借鉴的。     

生物质发电项目碳排放计算方法应用研究

生物质发电是将废弃生物质变成可再生能源得以充分利用,这些工程将减少来自于生物质自然腐烂和无控燃烧产生的温室效应,这不仅节约了煤炭,同时也减少了二氧化碳的排放。本文中以某生物质项目发电为例,根据CDM方法学ACM0006计算了该项目的减排量。结果表明,该项目10年间共减少了二氧化碳排放量2 075 140吨,给中国带来了可观的经济效益和环境效益。     

生物质发电项目碳排放计算方法应用研究

生物质发电是将废弃生物质变成可再生能源得以充分利用,这些工程将减少来自于生物质自然腐烂和无控燃烧产生的温室效应,这不仅节约了煤炭的同时也减少了二氧化碳的排放。本文中以某生物质项目发电为例,根据CDM方法学ACM0006计算了该项目的减排量。结果表明,该项目10年间共减少了二氧化碳排放量2,075,140 t,给我国带来了可观的经济效益和环境效益。     

Millennium development goals and clean development: synergies in the Pacific

This paper addresses synergies between the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), and considers how the CDM can facilitate the MDGs in Pacific Island Countries (PICs). To date, only 6 CDM projects have been registered in PICs, highlighting the ‘lose-lose’ business case that applies to this type of project development. This paper identifies constraints on and opportunities for CDM project development in PICs, and proposes a range of specific policy reform measures that could alter existing negative investment profiles. Key findings are that small-scale agricultural projects providing renewable energy from existing sources of biomass (currently seen as waste) are ideal candidates for CDM investment in PICs, and that the single most important reform to facilitate CDM activity and contribute to achieving the MDGs would be the implementation of a regional approach to CDM administration, in which a regional body became the designated CDM Authority for all states in the region. This would offset investment risk, improve governance transparency, and facilitate a targeted approach to sustainable development activities in the Pacific region.     

The elephant in the room – A comparative study of uncertainties in carbon offsets

The clean development mechanism (CDM) is a flexible mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol, which makes it possible for developed countries to offset their emissions of greenhouse gases through investing in climate change mitigation projects in developing countries. When the mitigation benefit of a CDM project is quantified, measurable uncertainties arise that can be minimised using established statistical methods. In addition, some unmeasurable uncertainties arise, such as the rebound effect of demand-side energy efficiency projects. Many project types related to land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) have been excluded from the CDM in part because of the high degree of statistical uncertainty in measurements of the carbon sink and risk of non-permanence. However, recent discussions within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have opened up for the possibility of including more LULUCF activities in the future. In the light of this discussion, we highlight different aspects of uncertainties in LULUCF projects (e.g. the risk of non-permanence and the size of the carbon sink) in relation to other CDM project categories such as renewables and demand-side energy efficiency. We quantify the uncertainties, compare the magnitudes of the uncertainties in different project categories and conclude that uncertainties could be just as significant in CDM project categories such as renewables as in LULUCF projects. The CDM is a useful way of including and engaging developing countries in climate change mitigation and could be a good source of financial support for LULUCF mitigation activities. Given their enormous mitigation potential, we argue that additional LULUCF activities should be included in the CDM and other future climate policy instruments. Furthermore, we note that Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) are currently being submitted to the UNFCCC by developing countries. Unfortunately, the under-representation of LULUCF in comparison to its potential is evident in the NAMAs submitted so far, just as it has been in the CDM. Capacity building under the CDM may influence NAMAs and there is a risk of transferring the view on uncertainties to NAMAs.     

A data support infrastructure for Clean Development Mechanism forestry implementation: an inventory perspective from Cameroon

Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) forestry project development requires highly multi-disciplinary and multiple-source information that can be complex, cumbersome and costly to acquire. Yet developing countries in which CDM projects are created and implemented are often data poor environments and unable to meet such complex information requirements. Using Cameroon as an example, the present paper explores the structure of an enabling host country data support infrastructure for CDM forestry implementation, and also assesses the supply potential of current forestry information. Results include a conceptual data model of CDM project data needs; the list of meso- and macro-level data and information requirements (Demand analysis); and an inventory of relevant data available in Cameroon (Supply analysis). From a comparison of demand and supply, we confirm that data availability and the relevant infrastructure for data or information generation is inadequate for supporting carbon forestry at the micro, meso and macro-levels in Cameroon. The results suggest that current CDM afforestation and reforestation information demands are almost impenetrable for local communities in host countries and pose a number of cross-scale barriers to project adoption. More importantly, we identify proactive regulatory, institutional and capacity building policy strategies for forest data management improvements that could enhance biosphere carbon management uptake in poor countries. CDM forestry information research needs are also highlighted.     

Economic potential of biomass gasification projects under clean development mechanism in India

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol provides Annex-I (industrialized) countries with an incentive to invest in emission reduction projects in non-Annex-I (developing) countries to achieve a reduction in CO₂ emissions at lowest cost that also promotes sustainable development in the host country. Biomass gasification projects could be of interest under the CDM because they directly displace greenhouse gas emissions while contributing to sustainable rural development. However, there is only one biomass gasifier project registered under the CDM so far. In this study, an attempt has been made to assess the economic potential of biomass gasifier-based projects under CDM in India. The preliminary estimates based on this study indicate that there is a vast theoretical potential of CO₂ mitigation by the use of biomass gasification projects in India.The results indicate that in India around 74 million tonne agricultural residues as a biomass feedstock can be used for energy applications on an annual basis. In terms of the plant capacity the potential of biomass gasification projects could reach 31 GW that can generate more than 67 TWh electricity annually. The annual CER potential of biomass gasification projects in India could theoretically reach 58 million tonnes. Under more realistic assumptions about diffusion of biomass gasification projects based on past experiences with the government-run programmes, annual CER volumes by 2012 could reach 0.4–1.0 million and 1.0–3.0 million by 2020. The projections based on the past diffusion trend indicate that in India, even with highly favorable assumptions, the dissemination of biomass gasification projects is not likely to reach its maximum estimated potential in another 50 years. CDM could help to achieve the maximum utilization potential more rapidly as compared to the current diffusion trend if supportive policies are introduced.     

Smallholder Agroforestry Systems For Carbon Storage

Most smallholder agroforestry systems in Southeast Asia are tree- and species-rich systems producing non-wood and wood products for both home use and market sale. Due to their high biomass, these systems contain large carbon (C) stocks. While the systems of individual farmers are of limited size, on a per area basis smallholder systems accumulate significant amounts of C, equaling the amount of C stored in some secondary forests of similar age. Their ability to simultaneously address smallholders’ livelihood needs and store large amounts of C makes smallholder systems viable project types under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol, with its dual objective of emissions reduction and sustainable development. Smallholder systems have not developed in areas where enabling conditions do not exist. A CDM project that facilitates a minimum threshold of enabling conditions that make smallholder agroforestation possible should qualify for C credits. To secure smallholder confidence, the agroforestry systems promoted through a CDM project must be socially and economically viable independent of C payments. To assure system productivity and profitability, projects should provide farmers with technical and marketing assistance. Additionally, project sites should meet the following preconditions: areas of underutilized low-biomass landuse systems available for rehabilitation; smallholders interested in tree farming; accessible markets for tree products; supportive local governments; sufficient infrastructure; and transparent and equitable relationships between project partners. Questions of leakage and additionality should not be problematic and can be addressed through the project design, establishment of quantifiable baseline data and facilitating enabling conditions. However, smallholder-focused CDM projects would have high transaction costs. The subsequent challenge is thus to develop mechanisms that reduce the costs of: (a) making information (e.g., technology, markets) more accessible to multiple clients; (b) facilitating and enforcing smallholder agreements and (c) designing feasible monitoring systems.     

Forest conservation and the clean development mechanism: Lessons from the Costa Rican protected areas project

Deforestation is currentlythe source of about 20% of anthropogenicCO₂ emissions. Avoided deforestationhas, nonetheless, been ruled out as a CleanDevelopment Mechanism (CDM) category in theKyoto Protocol's first commitment period,because several methodological issues wereconsidered too difficult to resolve. Thispaper explores whether CDM issues such as(1) carbon quantification, (2)additionality and baseline setting, (3)leakage risks, (4) non-permanence risks,and (5) sustainable development can beadequately dealt with in large, diversifiedforest conservation projects. To this aim,it studies the case of the Costa RicanProtected Areas Project (PAP), anActivities Implemented Jointly (AIJ)project which was meant to consolidate thenational park system to avoiddeforestation, promote the growth ofsecondary forests and regenerate pastureson an area that, in total, covers 10% ofthe national territory. The case studyexamines how the issues mentioned abovehave been addressed in the project designand in the certification process. It isfound that baseline uncertainties are themajor problem in this case. Nonetheless,the case suggests the possibility toaddress CDM issues by specific requirementsfor project design and very conservativeand temporary crediting. Provided thatother case studies support this conclusion,eligibility of well-designed forestconservation projects under the CDM in thesecond commitment period may be worthconsidering, given the secondary benefitsof avoided deforestation.     

林业碳汇项目基准线和监测方法学及应用分析——以贵州省贞丰县林业碳汇项目为例

气候变化给全球社会经济发展带来了重大影响,林业碳汇在适应和减缓气候变化、促进可持续发展三方面的重要作用日益被世界各国所认可。林业碳汇项目实施的难点在于准确掌握林业碳汇项目设计的规则、标准体系,重点在于基准线判别、碳汇计量、监测的方法学和工具。本文系统介绍了国际清洁发展机制造林再造林(CDM A/R)项目方法学和国内碳汇造林项目方法学、标准体系等最新成果,并以贵州省贞丰县林业碳汇项目为例,分析了基准线和监测方法学在林业碳汇项目开发设计中的实际应用。     

Community and farm forestry climate mitigation projects: case studies from Uttaranchal,India

The methodologies for forest mitigation projects still present challenges to project developers for fulfillment of criteria within the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) or other such mechanisms for the purpose of earning carbon credits. This paper systematically approaches the process of establishing carbon (C) stocks for baseline (BSL) and mitigation scenario (MSL) for two case studies i.e., community and farm forestry projects in Uttaranchal, India. The analysis of various interventions shows that both projects present high carbon mitigation potential. However, the C reversibility risk is lower in long-rotation pine and mixed species plantation on community lands. The project is financially viable though not highly lucrative but the carbon mitigation potential in this ‘restoration of degraded lands’ type of project is immense provided challenges in the initial phase are adequately overcome. C revenue is an essential driver for investors in community projects. The short-rotation timber species such as Eucalyptus (Eucalyptus), Poplar (Populus) have high internal rates of return (IRR) and high carbon benefit reversibility potential due to fluctuations in market prices of commodities produced. The land holdings are small and bundling is desired for projects to achieve economies of scale. The methodological concerns such as sampling intensities, monitoring methodologies, sharing of benefits with communities and bundling arrangements for projects need further research to make these projects viable.     

Unilateral Clean Development Mechanism – An approach for a least developed country?: The case of Yemen

Decision parameters prevailing in the market lead to a slim expression of interest of foreign investors for Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects in a bi- or multilateral design in Yemen. The Designated National Authority Secretariat in Yemen experiences the preference of Annex I entities of merely buying Certified Emission Reductions rather than investing in projects. Yemen's ability, like many least developed countries, to carry out unilateral CDM projects is moderate. Domestic project developers perceive difficulties in procuring underlying finance as key barrier in materializing CDM project activities in a unilateral design. The country remains trapped in a “catch 22 situation”. International assistance through low interest loans and capacity building for domestic financial institutions tailored to CDM project activities may trigger the market. Aggravation can be assisted by amending the policies of Annex I countries, in consequence to allocate a substantial share of their procurement activities to Certified Emission Reductions from least developed countries. Acquisition programmes may give preference to projects from host countries not traditionally represented in the pool of attractive CDM destinations.     

我国小型CDM项目开发障碍及其对策研究

2005年《京都议定书》生效以来,我国一直是全球CDM开发的重要国家之一,在CDM开发方面取得显著成就。但是由于信息流通、项目规模以及市场因素的影响,我国小型CDM项目在开发范围和深度方面都存在显著的不足。在对以上原因进行分析的基础上,本文认为采取多个小项目打包开发、以地区为单位整体开发以及促进CDM信息交流等方法可以解决以上阻碍小项目开发的因素,促进我国CDM健康发展。     

Prospects for mitigating carbon,conserving biodiversity,and promoting socioeconomic development objectives through the clean development mechanism

Should forest-based climate mitigationmeasures be approved for crediting through the CleanDevelopment Mechanism (CDM), they could offer anopportunity to accomplish three important objectives:cost-effective reductions in carbon emissions andsequestration of atmospheric carbon; conservation andrestoration of forests and their biological diversity;and, the assistance of host countries and communitiesin their socioeconomic development. However,prospective investors in CDM projects, host countriesand other CDM `stakeholders' might be expected toplace widely different priorities on achieving theseobjectives. This paper describes several factors thatwill affect investor interest in CDM projects, thecharacteristics of forest-based CDM projects that willattract investments, and an approach to identifyingprojects that meet the key objectives of multiplestakeholders. This approach entails identifyingsites, such as degraded watersheds, where CDMfinancing for forest conservation and restoration cangenerate readily monetizable local and regionalsocioeconomic benefits, while mitigating carbonemissions in forests with importance for conservingbiodiversity.     

National forest policy as a platform for biosphere carbon management: the case of community forestry in Cameroon

Little attention has been given to the development of national policies relevant for the uptake, development and implementation of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects. In this paper we examine the compatibility between forestry and related policy provisions in Cameroon and the CDM provisions for Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF). For each CDM requirement such as eligibility, additionality, impact assessment and sustainable development, relevant national forestry policy questions are identified. These relevant policy questions are applied to community forestry policy instruments in Cameroon to analyse the likelihood that they can enhance or inhibit the uptake and implementation of biosphere carbon projects. We found that choosing a single crown cover value (from between 10 and 30%) presented a serious dilemma for Cameroon given its diverse vegetation cover. Adopting any single value within this range is unlikely to optimize national carbon management potential. The current forest institutional and regulatory policy framework in Cameroon is inadequate for promoting carbon forestry under current CDM rules. We conclude that national policy in Cameroon would need to recognise the need for and adopt a pro-active approach for biosphere carbon management, engaging in institutional development, integrated planning, project development support and providing adequate regulatory frameworks to enhance sustainable development through CDM projects. The need for CDM/Kyoto capacity building support for proactive national and local policy development is highlighted.     

UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol Clean Development Mechanism Baseline Construction for Vietnam National Electricity Grid

For projects under the UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), a baseline has to be set to allow calculation of the greenhouse gas emissions reductions achieved. An important obstacle to CDM project development is the lack of data for baseline definition; often project developers do not have access to data and therefore incur high transaction costs to collect them. The government of Vietnam has set up all necessary institutions for CDM, wants to promote CDM projects and thus is interested to reduce transaction costs. We calculate emission factors of the Vietnam electricity grid according to the rules defined by the CDM Executive Board for small scale projects and for large renewable electricity generation projects. The emission factors lie between 365 and 899 g CO₂/kWh depending on the specification. The weighted operating and build margin reaches 600 g for 2003, while grid average reaches 399 g. Using three-year averages, a combined build and operating margin of 705 g is calculated. We hope that these data facilitate CDM project development in the electricity supply and energy efficiency improvement in Vietnam.     

Reforming the CDM for sustainable development: lessons learned and policy futures

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) has successfully demonstrated that market-based mechanisms can achieve some cost effective emissions reductions in developing countries. However the distribution of CDM projects has been extremely uneven across countries and regions, and a few technologies and sectors have dominated the early stages of CDM experience. This has caused some to question whether the CDM has fallen short of its potential in contributing to sustainable development. We review the broad patterns of CDM project approvals and evaluate 10 CDM projects according to their sustainability benefits. The difficulty of defining “sustainable development” and the process of defining criteria by individual non-Annex 1 governments has meant that sustainable development concerns have been marginalized in some countries. Given these observed limitations, we present possible CDM policy futures, focusing on the main proposals for a post-2012 climate regime. Five options for enhancing the sustainable development benefits in the CDM are discussed, including proactive approaches to favour eligibility of emission reduction projects which ensure such co-benefits.     

CDM项目大气污染物减排的协同效应研究

为了CDM项目的优化开发和大气污染物的协同控制,就国内CDM项目的污染物减排协同效应进行了分析.在统计其项目年减排量、总投资额以及协同减排系数的基础上,按不同项目类型(零排放的可再生能源、生物质、甲烷废气回收、燃料替代、煤层气回收、水泥原料替代、N2O分解消除以及节能和提高能效)和不同项目所在地(华中、华东、海南、华北、东北、西北以及华南)分析了项目的SO2、NOx和PM2.5协同减排量和投资减排收益.燃料替代、煤层气回收、节能提高能效类项目的投资减排收益高,华中和华东地区的生物质能源项目收益较高,而风电、水电类项目收益较低.     

A basic study with feasibility of applying clean development mechanism to the transport projects

In the transport sector, few projects applied Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) or Joint Implementation (JI) projects. This study will examine the feasibility of applying CDM to the transport sector from viewpoints of validation of processes and funding. A number of greenhouse gas emission reduction projects, as well as traffic management project within existing transport infrastructures, can be implemented as CDM projects. New transport infrastructure projects can be validated by transportdemand forecasting and traffic simulation methods, though application of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) technologies. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Will Simplified Modalities and Procedures Make More Small-Scale Forestry Projects Viable Under the Clean Development Mechanism?

Simplified modalities and procedures (M&P) are expected to increase the viability of small-scale project activities under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). A small-scale afforestation or reforestation (AR) project is defined as a project removing less than 8 kilotons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) per year. Depending on the project type and the method for measuring scale, 8 kilotons of CO₂e per year correspond to highly diverse areas, possibly ranging from 200 to 6000 ha. Using a model to calculate the minimum project scale above which the CDM is a positive financial incentive for eligible AR project activities, the paper analyzes whether a reduction of transaction costs under simplified M&P will be a sufficient incentive to motivate small-scale participation in the CDM. Model results show that, even under optimistic assumptions on carbon market conditions and transaction costs, small-scale project activities will not benefit from simplified M&P. Results also show that project activities removing more than 8 kilotons of CO₂e per year and registered as small-scale would be the ones that could benefit the most from simplified M&P. It is concluded that the participation of small-scale project activities to the CDM requires more than simplified M&P, the price of expiring Certified Emission Reductions being one of the most critical parameters.