POLLUTANT LOADS IN URBAN STORMWATER: REVIEW OF METHODS FOR PLANNING-LEVEL ESTIMATES1

ABSTRACT: A review of methods for planning-level estimates of pollutant loads in urban stormwater focuses on transfer of charac. teristic runoff quality data to unmonitored sites, runoff monitoring, and simulation models. Load estimation by transfer of runoff quality data is the least expensive, but the accuracy of estimates is unknown. Runoff monitoring methods provide best estimates of existing loads, but cannot be used to predict load changes resulting from runoff controls, or other changes of the urban system. Simulation models require extensive calibration for reliable application. Models with optional formulations of pollutant build up, washoff, and transport can be better calibrated and the selection of options should be based on a statistical analysis of calibration data. Calibrated simulation models can be used for evaluation of control alternatives.     

PATTERNS OF WATERSHED MONTHLY RUNOFF1

ABSTRACT: Two dimensional sliding polynomials were adapted to pattern analysis of watershed monthly rainfall and runoff. Contours of runoff in the two-dimensional space of time and rainfall are constructed on a grid of 16 nodes whose values are determined by least squares. This method is form free, hence derived patterns are not biased to selected functional forms, but can directly represent the smoothed data. Values of the nodes are localized averages of the data constrained by required mathematical continuity across the grid of values. An advantage of the method is that the standard deviation can be calculated for each node, thus producing patterns of uncertainty of the deterministic component revealed by the data.     

Quantitative Identification of Disturbance Thresholds in Support of Aquatic Resource Management

The identification of disturbance thresholds is important for many aspects of aquatic resource management, including the establishment of regulatory criteria and the identification of stream reference conditions. A number of quantitative or model-based approaches can be used to identify disturbance thresholds, including nonparametric deviance reduction (NDR), piecewise regression (PR), Bayesian changepoint (BCP), quantile piecewise constant (QPC), and quantile piecewise linear (QPL) approaches. These methods differ in their assumptions regarding the nature of the disturbance-response variable relationship, which can make selecting among the approaches difficult for those unfamiliar with the methods. We first provide an overview of each of the aforementioned approaches for identifying disturbance thresholds, including the types of data for which the approaches are intended. We then compare threshold estimates from each of these approaches to evaluate their robustness using both simulated and empirical datasets. We found that most of the approaches were accurate in estimating thresholds for datasets with drastic changes in responses variable at the disturbance threshold. Conversely, only the PR and QPL approaches performed well for datasets with conditional mean or upper boundary changes in response variables at the disturbance threshold. The most robust threshold identification approach appeared to be the QPL approach; this method provided relatively accurate threshold estimates for most of the evaluated datasets. Because accuracy of disturbance threshold estimates can be affected by a number of factors, we recommend that several steps be followed when attempting to identify disturbance thresholds. These steps include plotting and visually inspecting the disturbance-response data, hypothesizing what mechanisms likely generate the observed pattern in the disturbance-response data, and plotting the estimated threshold in relation to the disturbance-response data to ensure the appropriateness of the threshold estimate.     

基于经济普查引入EGSS统计框架的可行性分析

环境货物和服务部门(EGSS)统计框架是由欧盟统计署研究制定的、用于收集和整理环境产品与服务相关统计数据的方法,已经被联合国统计署纳入"环境经济统计体系(SEEA)"中,成为一项国际统计标准。中国的经济普查工作在数据采集方式上与EGSS具有较好的一致性,本文主要对我国的经济普查与EGSS统计框架进行比较研究,探索从经济普查表核算EGSS数据的方法和思路。结果表明:经济普查可作为常规统计口径核算EGSS数据的一个切入点,但是需要在数据连续性、行业小类划分、统计的经济指标范围方面进行衔接融合;基于经济普查数据引进EGSS统计框架可采取分阶段推进方式。     

Dynamic Control Switching Applied to Water Resource Management Simulation1

Abstract: Simulation of water resource management in hydrological numerical models is often limited to simple expressions such as rulecurves. More complex management requires additional layers of abstraction. Rulecurves tend to be simplistic, while abstraction implies expertise to convert management policies to a form which may not be recognizable by operators. The Regional Simulation Model (RSM) attempts to bridge this gap with the Management Simulation Engine (MSE). MSE allows dynamic switching of control algorithms facilitating hybrid control of modeled structures, even though the individual controllers are widely different. Use of hybrid controllers can simplify expression of complex management controls. This article details the architecture of the MSE that enables hybrid control. A model application is examined in which a set of tuned fuzzy controllers are dynamically switched with piecewise linear flood controllers to simulate a hybrid control scheme. The application models a Florida water conservation area and demonstrates effective flood control without sacrificing the tuned performance of the fuzzy controllers.     

《社交心理学》公共选修课教学实效性的思考

结合中国环境管理干部学院《社交心理学》选修课教学过程中,部分学生对选修课的意义认识不清而导致的随意或从众选课、上课过程中应付或逃课等实际情况,从教学管理、授课内容、教学方法、考核方式等环节,提出了增强公共选修课的实用性和趣味性的建议与对策。     

二次指数平滑法的成都市餐厨垃圾产量预测

餐厨垃圾的产生量直接影响其处理规模,指数平滑法是对于缺乏基础数据的模型预测的一种有效方法。本文以2001～2009年成都市餐厨垃圾产量数据为基础,运用二次指数平滑预测法对成都市餐厨垃圾产量进行预测,预测结果显示2010年成都市餐厨垃圾产量将达到514.96 t/d。     

DETECTING UNKNOWN INTERVENTIONS WITH APPLICATION TO FORECASTING HYDROLOGICAL DATA1

To accommodate possible parameter changes in time series at times which are not specified in advance, we propose an adaptive procedure for estimating parameters and for forecasting. The mechanism for activating the adaptive procedure is a successively updated change-detection statistic. The statistic has small expected value when no change is present and has large value when change takes place - the larger the change, the larger the statistic. The statistic defines discounting factors which determine how much of the past will be used both for estimating parameters and for forecasting. The change-detection statistic is designed to effect major changes to parameter estimates and to forecasts in a discrete fashion only, as opposed to certain other adaptive procedures that react continuously to perceived fluctuations in data, and so indicate change even when parameters remain fixed. The procedure is illustrated using exponential smoothing and Holt's linear exponential smoothing and is applied to a hydrological series.     

LAKEMAP: A 2-D AND 3-D MAPPING SYSTEM FOR VISUALIZING WATER QUALITY DATA IN LAKES1

ABSTRACT: The visualization of water quality data in lakes was achieved by integrating the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) STORET water quality database, lake shoreline polygons from EPA's Reach File (version 3), and the UNIMAP 2-D and 3-D interactive mapping and modeling software. Based on lake name (and state abbreviation), a lake shoreline polygon can be accessed from the Reach File. The coordinates of the polygon are portrayed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 1:100,000 scale Digital Line Graph (DLG) hydrography layer. This polygon is passed, in turn, to the STORET water quality file. Monitoring stations located within the polygon boundary are extracted along with the complete sampling survey. Specific parameters, such as total phosphorus, pH, ammonia, and optional time and depth restrictions can be selected to build a file of x, y, z₁, z₁…, zn data which is imported to UNIMAP. Up to four parameters, including depth, can be selected at a time. Within UNIMAP, the data is gridded and then displayed as a 2-D color contour map, 3-D perspective contour map, or 2-D projected time or depth slices. This system operates on the EPA ES9000 mainframe computer located in Research Triangle Park (RIP), North Carolina. LAKEMAP is the culmination of an effort to bridge the gap between the vast array of environmental data collected by the EPA and the complex analytical and display software resident on the mainframe.     

PROFILE: Hungry Water: Effects of Dams and Gravel Mining on River Channels

/ Rivers transport sediment from eroding uplands to depositional areas near sea level. If the continuity of sediment transport is interrupted by dams or removal of sediment from the channel by gravel mining, the flow may become sediment-starved (hungry water) and prone to erode the channel bed and banks, producing channel incision (downcutting), coarsening of bed material, and loss of spawning gravels for salmon and trout (as smaller gravels are transported without replacement from upstream). Gravel is artificially added to the River Rhine to prevent further incision and to many other rivers in attempts to restore spawning habitat. It is possible to pass incoming sediment through some small reservoirs, thereby maintaining the continuity of sediment transport through the system. Damming and mining have reduced sediment delivery from rivers to many coastal areas, leading to accelerated beach erosion. Sand and gravel are mined for construction aggregate from river channel and floodplains. In-channel mining commonly causes incision, which may propagate up- and downstream of the mine, undermining bridges, inducing channel instability, and lowering alluvial water tables. Floodplain gravel pits have the potential to become wildlife habitat upon reclamation, but may be captured by the active channel and thereby become instream pits. Management of sand and gravel in rivers must be done on a regional basis, restoring the continuity of sediment transport where possible and encouraging alternatives to river-derived aggregate sources.KEY WORDS: Dams; Aquatic habitat; Sediment transport; Erosion; Sedimentation; Gravel mining     

Impact of mining on Nauruan women

Nauruan women have absorbed much of the impact of mining for phosphates on Nauru. They have provided continuity for the traditional mode of social organization through the maintenance of the matrilineages, while also adjusting the household lifestyle to meet the needs of a cash economy. Ties to one another and to the island through both lineages and clans provide the basis of Nauruan identity, and ensure that the identity is restricted to those born of Nauruan mothers. Land rights held by individual titleholders have been a key issue throughout the mining extraction process, and remain so as the island seeks to rehabilitate itself towards a new Garden of Eden. With four-fifths of the island a sea of coral pinnacles, the process and cost of rehabilitation remains an immense issue for the Nauruan population. Whether the women can maintain their central role in the new reconstituted island in the 21st century remains to be answered.     

Turbidity and nitrate transfer in karstic aquifers in rural areas: the Brionne Basin case-study

The degradation of water quality in many groundwaters of Europe is a major source of concern. Rises in turbidity and nitrate concentrations represent present or potential threats for the quality of drinking water in rural areas. They are for the most part a consequence of agricultural intensification which has considerably affected land cover and land use in recent decades. In our case-study (a karstic catchment) the mechanisms which explain changes in water quality, as far as turbidity and nitrate are concerned, result from a strong continuity between surface and underground waters. The karstic system of the Brionne Basin can be considered as both the focus of rapid horizontal flows (runoff, a rapid process in which rainwater reaches the spring directly through sinkholes) and slow vertical flows (leaching, in which rainwater filters through the soil to the spring). A hierarchical approach to the water pollution problem of the basin suggests that turbidity or nitrate concentrations peak during heavy rain episodes and are short-term events. In terms of management, this implies that the solution to water pollution caused by such events is also short-term and can therefore be addressed at a local scale. The rise of nitrate concentrations during the past twenty years is the main concern. The solution can only be found at a global scale (all the catchment area must be taken in account: land plots and their spatial configuration), and by taking a long-term approach.     

Thermodynamic-dynamic analysis of gamma type free-piston stirling engine charged with hydrogen gas as working fluid

ABSTRACT

In this study, the combined thermodynamic and dynamic model of a new concept of gamma type free-piston Stirling engine is conducted. The engine consists of two identical displacer cylinders, a power cylinder, a linear alternator, and three-cushion pistons. Two displacer cylinders are symmetrically positioned on each side of the power cylinder for minimizing the rotational vibrations. Hydrogen is used as the working gas and the effect of gas temperature on the specific heat capacity is considered. The analysis carried out in this study involves the prediction of the thermodynamic-dynamic performance characteristics of the engine. In the thermodynamic section of the analysis, the working space of the engine is divided into 31 nodal volumes and the gas pressures in nodal volumes are assumed to be equal to each other. The conservation of mass and energy equations is obtained for each nodal volume. Instantaneous gas temperatures of nodal volumes are calculated by the first law of thermodynamics given for the unsteady open systems. The dynamic section of the analysis involves the motion equations of displacer, power and cushion pistons. The motion equations are derived using the Newton method. In the calculations done for variable specific heat capacity, it has been determined that there is 1% cyclic work reduction compared to the constant heat capacity. It is estimated that the maximum effective power that can be produced by the linear alternator will be around 1.6 kW. The working frequency range of the proposed engine is found to be suitable to generate electrical power.     

APPLICATION OF GREY MODEL AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS TO FLOOD FORECASTING1

The main focus of this study was to compare the Grey model and several artificial neural network (ANN) models for real time flood forecasting, including a comparison of the models for various lead times (ranging from one to six hours). For hydrological applications, the Grey model has the advantage that it can easily be used in forecasting without assuming that forecast storm events exhibit the same stochastic characteristics as the storm events themselves. The major advantage of an ANN in rainfall‐runoff modeling is that there is no requirement for any prior assumptions regarding the processes involved. The Grey model and three ANN models were applied to a 2,509 km² watershed in the Republic of Korea to compare the results for real time flood forecasting with from one to six hours of lead time. The fifth‐order Grey model and the ANN models with the optimal network architectures, represented by ANN1004 (34 input nodes, 21 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), ANN1010 (40 input nodes, 25 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), and ANN1004T (14 input nodes, 21 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), were adopted to evaluate the effects of time lags and differences between area mean and point rainfall. The Grey model and the ANN models, which provided reliable forecasts with one to six hours of lead time, were calibrated and their datasets validated. The results showed that the Grey model and the ANN1010 model achieved the highest level of performance in forecasting runoff for one to six lead hours. The ANN model architectures (ANN1004 and ANN1010) that used point rainfall data performed better than the model that used mean rainfall data (ANN1004T) in the real time forecasting. The selected models thus appear to be a useful tool for flood forecasting in Korea.     

IMPROVED RIVER BASIN UTILIZATION THROUGH SYSTEMS ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT. Theoretical and practical results are summarized for a study to determine optimal water resource allocation in a proposed water conservancy district. The area of this district, which covers several river basins, contains a large number of existing and proposed facilities such as reservoirs and diversions. The operation of all of these facilities was to be determined along with the sizing of the proposed facilities in order to optimize given objective functions. Related efforts in optimal river basin utilization were surveyed, and linear programming was selected as an expedient optimization technique. The problem is formulated by identifying time stages which together constitute a repetitive cycle such as a year. With these stages, it is possible to associate operational and capacity variables with network components, which are branches and nodes. Objective functions are assembled for the component variables. Constraint equations are written in terms of the variables to reflect network nodal continuity, capacity restrictions, and adjudications such as water rights. A numerical example is considered in which the existing and proposed facilities are aggregated to produce a small, tractable number of facilities. This paper examines the example results and suggests future improvements for models of this type.     

Traffic-related air quality assessment for open road tolling highway facility

Open road tolling (ORT) design has been considered as an effective means of smoothing highway traffic and reducing travel delay on toll highways. In this paper it is demonstrated that ORT can also achieve significant air quality benefits over the conventional toll plaza design. The near roadside carbon monoxide (CO) concentration levels can be reduced by up to 37%, and diesel particulate matter (DPM) emissions can decrease by as much as 58%. These large expected air quality benefits have great implications to the regional efforts of reducing mobile source air pollution toward achieving attainment status and healthier living environment.     

SOLUTION OF A WATER RESOURCES PROBLEM WITH ECONOMIES OF SCALE BY LINEAR PROGRAMMING1

ABSTRACT Both because of its effectiveness and ease in use, linear programming has become progressively popular in water resources planning problems. Yet, the assumptions of linear construction costs can be misleading. Diseconomies of scale in construction can be handled by successive approximations to the cost function but problems with economies of scale yield paradoxical results when piecewise approximations are used. If significant economies of scale exist in only one facility, the solution to problems of this nature can be found using normal linear programming codes by successively adjusting the unit construction cost on that single facility to iteratively work toward the true optimal solution.     

An inexact reverse logistics model for municipal solid waste management systems

This paper proposed an inexact reverse logistics model for municipal solid waste management systems (IRWM). Waste managers, suppliers, industries and distributors were involved in strategic planning and operational execution through reverse logistics management. All the parameters were assumed to be intervals to quantify the uncertainties in the optimization process and solutions in IRWM. To solve this model, a piecewise interval programming was developed to deal with Min-Min functions in both objectives and constraints. The application of the model was illustrated through a classical municipal solid waste management case. With different cost parameters for landfill and the WTE, two scenarios were analyzed. The IRWM could reflect the dynamic and uncertain characteristics of MSW management systems, and could facilitate the generation of desired management plans. The model could be further advanced through incorporating methods of stochastic or fuzzy parameters into its framework. Design of multi-waste, multi-echelon, multi-uncertainty reverse logistics model for waste management network would also be preferred.     

区域声环境质量污染水平预测方法评价与对比研究

为完成北京市“十二五”城市区域的主要声污染防治工作目标,全面提高北京市声环境质量水平,科学预测区域内在“十二五”期间噪声污染水平和发展趋势,本文以北京市某典型区域作为研究对象,在收集大量相关资料与实测历史噪声数据的基础上,运用指数平滑法与灰色模型GM（1,1）对所选定研究区域的噪声污染水平与发展趋势进行预测与分析。研究结果表明：运用指数平滑法与灰色模型对研究区域声环境噪声污染预测是可行的,北京市在“十二五”期间声环境质量水平符合《声环境质量标准》（GB3096—2008）中的一类区域标准。