DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR RESERVOIR OPERATION1

ABSTRACT: A decision support system to determine reservoir releases in an uncertain environment during the dry season was developed. A key characteristic of the decision support system is its recursive procedure that processes observations to obtain the most feasible estimate. The system consists of three components: (1) a hydrologic model; (2) an optimization model, and (3) a fuzzy decision model. This methodology was applied to the operation of the Techi reservoir in central Taiwan. Three criteria (public water supply, irrigation, and hydropower) were taken into account within the operation process. Simulation results show that the decision support system can successfully assist government officials in determining operating policy for the Techi reservoir during the dry season. Also, the system is simple enough to lead to a rapid transfer of theoretical knowledge into practice.     

FIELD SCALE MULTIOBJECTIVE DECISION MAKING: A CASE STUDY FROM WESTERN IOWA1

ABSTRACT: Water quality issues in agriculture are growing in importance. A common theme is the provision of better information to decision makers. This study reports the trial of a prototype decision support system by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service and the Agricultural Research Service in the NRCS Harrison County Field Office in 1998. Observed data collected at the Deep Loess Research Station (DLRS) near Treynor, Iowa, were extrapolated using a modified GLEAMS field scale simulation model that included a nitrogen leaching component and a crop growth component. An accounting tool was used to convert crop yield estimates into crop budgets. A model interface was built to specify the climate, soil, and topography of the field, as well as the management scenarios for the alternative management systems. For the Deep Loess Hills area of Harrison County, a total of six soil and slope groups, with 66 total combinations of management practices forming management systems, were defined and simulated based on previously calibrated data from DLRS. A multi‐objective decision support system, the Water Quality Decision Support System, or WQDSS, was used to examine the tradeoffs in a comprehensive set of variables affected by alternative management systems with farmers in Harrison County. The study concluded that a multiobjective decision support system should be developed to support conservation planning by the NRCS. Currently, a larger scale effort to improve water quality decision making is underway.     

SELECTION AND SUSTAINABILITY OF LAND AND WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: Most spatial decision support systems for natural resource planning and management are limited by their scenario-based (non-behavioral), deterministic (non-stochastic) structure. A spatial decision support system is developed that uses a multiple attribute decision-making model to explain how a property manager selects a land and water resource management system (LWRMS) based on its multiple, stochastic economic and environmental attributes. The decision support system assesses sustainable resource management at the property and watershed scales and identifies the most cost-effective policy for enhancing sustainable resource management. Economic attributes are determined with an economic model and environmental attributes are simulated with an environmental model. Input parameters for both models are generated with a geographic information system. The decision support system is used to rank five LWRMS for a sample of 20 farmers in Missouri's Goodwater Creek watershed and for two hypothetical watershed alliance groups. Results indicate that the average farmer and the two alliance groups would rank the five LWRMS in the same manner. From the viewpoint of the watershed alliance, the most preferred LWRMS for the average farmer in the watershed is sustainable.     

A data mining approach to simulating farmers' crop choices for integrated water resources management

Water and land resources in Thailand are increasingly under pressure from development. In particular, there are many resource conflicts associated with agricultural production in northern Thailand. Communities in these areas are significantly constrained in the land and water management decisions they are able to make. This paper describes the application of a data mining approach to describing and simulating farmers' decision rules in a catchment in northern Thailand. This approach is being applied to simulate social, economic and biophysical constraints on farmers' decisions in these areas as part of an integrated water management model.     

构建与设计化学矿业可持续发展决策支持系统

本文讨论了化学矿业可持续发展的内涵和实现可持续发展战略的最佳技术手段之一,即建立化学矿业可持续发展空间决策支持系统的重要性,提出了化学矿业可持续发展决策支持系统的构建理论依据和方法,探讨了化学矿业可持续发展空间决策支持系统总体设计、系统分析的数学模型以及系统的方法库和模型库的设计。     

MULTIPLE CRITERIA ANALYSIS FOR WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT IN THE NITRA BASIN1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents the implementation of one element of a decision support system (DSS) for regional water quality management, applied to the Nitra River Basin in Slovakia. A model-based, aspiration-led methodology for multicriteria decision support has been used for the study. Several reusable, modular software tools have been developed and implemented: a problem-specific generator to produce the core part of the mathematical programming model, tools for the generation and interactive modification of multicriteria problems, and a solver for the resulting mixed-integer optimization problem. Provided in the paper are the following: a complete formulation of the mathematical model (including the imbedded water quality model), a summary of the aspiration-reservation-led multiple criteria optimization approach applied to decision support, and an overview of results that illustrate the applied approach and provide some interesting insights to the case study.     

多目标灰色关联度决策模型分析

本文针对多目标决策的复杂性,运用灰色系统分析方法和物元分析理论,建立了决策方案的评价体系并对评价指标进行规范化处理。以决策方案的灰色关联度作为评判准则,建立了一种目标灰色关联度决策模型。     

WATER FOR ENERGY: AN APPROACH TO COMPREHENSIVE IMPACT ASSESSMENT1

ABSTRACT: The effects of energy development on the water resources of the Colorado River and Great Basin regions is expected to be substantial. Complex physical, economic and institutional interactions may be expected. Most research on these impacts appears single purpose, fragmented, uncoordinated, and often inaccessible to potential users - particularly those with responsibility for energy/water policy and program decisions. A comprehensive, integrative framework for assessing alternative water allocation decisions is outlined, taking a heuristic decision making model for evaluating impacts on maximization of gross (or net) regional product, and regional social welfare, and for assessing the region's contribution to national objectives. The suggested model provides a structure for application and integration of data of various kinds to a range of situations arising from possible impacts from energy proposals. The focus is on water and energy relationships but the model may provide a framework for comprehensive analysis of a variety of environmental actions and resulting system perturbations and effects.     

MULTICRITERION ANALYSIS OF GROUNDWATER CONTAMINATION MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: Multicriterion decision making (MCDM) techniques were used to analyze a groundwater contamination management problem from the viewpoint of conflicting multiple objectives. The groundwater management model was used to find a compromise strategy for trading off fresh water supply, containment of the waste, and total pumping cost in a hypothetical confined aquifer affected by previous waste disposal action. A groundwater flow model was used to formulate the hydraulic constraints. A linear system model was used to describe drawdown and velocity as functions of the decision variables which were pumping rates. The model determines the pumping location and rates. A modified c-constraint method was used to generate the set of nondominated solutions which were the alternative compromise strategies. Three different MCDM techniques, Compromise programming (CP), ELECTRA II and MCQA II, were used to select a “satisficing” alternative. Analysis of the results showed that, although these techniques follow different principles, the same preferred strategies were reached. Also, it was noticed that maintaining high groundwater velocities is expensive and difficult. In order to meet a two year target date, large amounts of water had to be pumped. Therefore, rapid restoration results in large pumping volumes and high costs.     

EXPERIMENTAL EVALUATION OF MULTIPLE CRITERIA DECISION MODELS FOR APPLICATION TO WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: A research project was undertaken for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to determine the relative utility and effectiveness of four well-known multicriteria decision making (MCDM) models for applications in realistic water resources planning settings. A series of experiments was devised to examine the impact of rating and ranking procedures on the decision making behavior of users (e.g., planners, managers, analysts, etc.) when faced with situations involving multiple evaluation criteria and numerous alternative planning projects. The four MCDM models tested were MATS-PC, EXPERT CHOICE, ARIADNE, and ELECTRE. Two groups of analysts and decision makers were tested. One group consisted of experienced U.S. Army Corps planners, while the other was comprised of graduate students. Based on a series of nonparametric statistical tests, the results identified EXPERT CHOICE as the preferred MCDM model by both groups based largely on ease of use and understandability. ARIADNE fostered the largest degree of agreement within and among the two groups of individuals tested. The tests also lend support to the claim that rankings are not affected significantly by the choice of decision maker (i.e., who uses any of these MCDM models) or which of these four models is used.     

Sustainable Water Resources Management in a Conflict Resolution Framework1

Abstract: A decision support system for sustainable water resources management in a water conflict resolution framework is developed to identify and evaluate a range of acceptable alternatives for the Geum River Basin in Korea and to facilitate strategies that will result in sustainable water resource management. Working with stakeholders in a “shared vision modeling” framework, sustainable management strategies are created to illustrate system tradeoffs as well as long‐term system planning. A multi‐criterion decision‐making (MCDM) approach using subjective scales is utilized to evaluate the complex water resource allocation and management tradeoffs between stakeholders and system objectives. The procedures used in this study include the development of a “shared vision model,” a simulated decision‐making support system (as a tool for sustainable water management strategies associated with water conflicts, management options, and planning criteria), and the application of MCDM techniques for evaluating alternatives provided by the model. The research results demonstrate the utility of the sustainable water resource management model in aid of MCDM techniques in facilitating flexibility during initial stages of alternative identification and evaluation in a basin suffering from severe water conflicts.     

A Water Allocation Decision‐Support Model and Tool for Predictions in Ungauged Basins in Northeast British Columbia,Canada

Pressures on water resources due to changing climate, increasing demands, and enhanced recognition of environmental flow needs result in the need for hydrology information to support informed water allocation decisions. However, the absence of hydrometric measurements and limited access to hydrology information in many areas impairs water allocation decision‐making. This paper describes a water balance‐based modeling approach and an innovative web‐based decision‐support hydrology tool developed to address this need. Using high‐resolution climate, vegetation, and watershed data, a simple gridded water balance model, adjusted to account for locational variability, was developed and calibrated against gauged watersheds, to model mean annual runoff. Mean monthly runoff was modeled empirically, using multivariate regression. The modeled annual runoff results are within 20% of the observed mean annual discharge for 78% of the calibration watersheds, with a mean absolute error of 16%. Modeled monthly runoff corresponds well to observed monthly runoff, with a median Nash–Sutcliffe statistic of 0.92 and a median Spearman rank correlation statistic of 0.98. Monthly and annual flow estimates produced from the model are incorporated into a map‐ and watershed‐based decision‐support system referred to as the Northeast Water Tool, to provide critical information to decision makers and others on natural water supply, existing allocations, and the needs of the environment.     

关于建立许家峪生态农业示范村的可行性研究

生态农业示范村建设是进行综合生态农业示范体系研究的基础,也是神态农业经营理念和技术推广的重要途径。因此,地理、交通、自然和人文环境的选择,生产经营模式的确定对生态农业经营效益和示范影响效果至关重要。本文通过对许家峪村的现状和作为冀东生态农业示范村的优势和存在问题以及适宜的经营模式进行了剖析和阐述。     

Structuring decisions about energy in developing communities: an example from Canada's north

Decisions about energy in developing communities are challenging from a technical standpoint, and because of the unique characteristics that typify them, e.g. limited infrastructure and government budgets, complex social and political arrangements, and economic vulnerability. Against the backdrop of these challenges, the government of Canada's Northwest Territories (NWT) is attempting to reform the region's energy system. This paper provides insights from the decision sciences, stemming from our work on the NWT's energy planning process, about how to structure decisions about energy development and delivery so as to effectively meet a range of stakeholders’ objectives in a transparent and inclusive manner.     

Interaction Between Scientists and Nonscientists in Community-Based Watershed Management: Emergence of the Concept of Stream Naturalization

The authors' personal experience in watershed planning and decision making in the agricultural Midwest is described to illustrate how: (1) formalization of the process of community-based management is not sufficient to guarantee that local people will meaningfully consider scientific information and opinion when making decisions about watersheds, and (2) genuine social interaction between scientists and nonscientists requires a considerable investment of time and energy on the part of the scientist to develop personal relationships with nonscientists based on trust and mutual exchange of information. This experience provides the basis for developing a general conceptual model of the interaction between scientists and nonscientists in community-based watershed management in the agricultural Midwest. An important aspect of integrating science effectively into community-based decision making is the need to revise existing concepts to accommodate place-based contexts. Stream naturalization is introduced as an alternative to stream restoration and rehabilitation, which are viewed as inappropriate management strategies in human-dominated environments. Stream naturalization seeks to establish sustainable, morphologically and hydraulically varied, yet dynamically stable fluvial systems that are capable of supporting healthy, biologically diverse aquatic ecosystems. This general goal is consistent with the types of stream-management practices emerging from community-based decision making in human-dominated, agricultural landscapes. Further research on the linkages between geomorphological and ecological dynamics of human-modified agricultural streams over multiple spatial and temporal scales is needed to provide a sound scientific framework for stream naturalization.     

A HANDY DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR RESERVOIR OPERATION IN TAIWAN1

A user-friendly decision support system (DSS) for long-term reservoir operation has been introduced with an eye to practical use. The system can assist reservoir managers to work out applicable rules for real-time reservoir operation. The DSS model has already been applied experimentally to the main reservoirs in Taiwan with success. In this study, Tsengwen Reservoir, the largest reservoir in Taiwan, was chosen to test the applicability of the model. The simulation results show that the DSS is not only well suited to long-term reservoir operation, but also very easily applied. A handy DSS was designed for user-friendly computer interaction with Microsoft Excel in the Windows system. Users can survey on-line reservoir operation with a browser on the World Wide Web (WWW). The uniform resource locator of the DSS is http://wrm.hre.ntou.edu.tw. . So users may easily access the DSS via the Internet.     

A Hierarchical Fuzzy Decision Support System for the Environmental Rehabilitation of Lake Koronia,Greece

This article presents the design of a fuzzy decision support system (DSS) for the assessment of alternative strategies proposed for the restoration of Lake Koronia, Greece. Fuzzy estimates for the critical characteristics of the possible strategies, such as feasibility, environmental impact, implementation time, and costs are evaluated and supplied to the fuzzy DSS. Different weighting factors are assigned to the critical characteristics and the proposed strategies are ordered with respect to the system responses. The best strategies are selected and their expected impact on the ecosystem is evaluated with the aid of a fuzzy model of the lake. Sensitivity analysis and simulation results have shown that the proposed fuzzy DSS can serve as a valuable tool for the selection and evaluation of appropriate management actions. Note: This version was published online in June 2005 with the cover date of August 2004.     

INVOLVING WATERSHED STAKEHOLDERS: AN ISSUE ATTRIBUTE APPROACH TO DETERMINE WILLINGNESS AND NEED1

ABSTRACT: The development of effective solutions for addressing nonpoint source pollution on a watershed basis often involves watershed stakeholders. However, success in engaging stakeholders in collaborative decision making processes varies, as watershed managers are faced with the challenges inherent to finding the right process for the decisions needed and in successfully engaging stakeholders in that process. Two characteristics that may provide guidance for determining the appropriateness of applying a collaborative process to a watershed problem are the need to collaborate and the willingness of stakeholders to engage in a collaborative decision making process. By examining seven attributes of the issues confronted by stakeholders in a collaborative process, the consequences of these attributes on the need for collaboration and stakeholders' willingness to engage can be estimated. The issue attributes include: level of uncertainty, balance of information, risk, time horizon of effects, urgency of decision, distribution of effects, and clarity of problem. The issue attribute model was applied to two collaborative decision making processes conducted by the same watershed stakeholder group in a North Carolina coastal watershed. Need and willingness to engage did not coincide for either issue; that is, stakeholders were more willing to engage on the issue that required less need for their involvement.     

A SPATIAL DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR ASSESSING AGRICULTURAL NONPOINT SOURCE POLLUTION1

ABSTRACT: A spatial decision support system (SDSS) was developed to assess agricultural nonpoint source (NPS) pollution using an NPS pollution model and geographic information systems (GIS). With minimal user interaction, the SDSS assists with extracting the input parameters for a distributed parameter NPS pollution model from user-supplied GIS base layers. Thus, significant amounts of time, labor, and expertise can be saved. Further, the SDSS assists with visualizing and analyzing the output of the NPS pollution simulations. Capabilities of the visualization component include displays of sediment, nutrient, and runoff movement from a watershed. The input and output interface techniques/algorithms used to develop the SDSS, along with an example application of the SDSS, are described.     

Using Multicriteria Methods in Environmental Planning and Management

In environmental planning and decision processes several alternatives are analyzed in terms of multiple noncommensurate criteria, and many different stakeholders with conflicting preferences are involved. Based on our experience in real-life applications, we discuss how multicriteria decision aid (MCDA) methods can be used successfully in such processes. MCDA methods support these processes by providing a framework for collecting, storing, and processing all relevant information, thus making the decision process traceable and transparent. It is therefore possible to understand and explain why, under several conflicting preferences, a particular decision was made. The MCDA framework also makes the requirements for new information explicit, thus supporting the allocation of resources for the process.