HEAVY RAINFAL RELATIONS OVER CHICAGO AND NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS1

ABSTRACT: Detailed studies of rainfall frequency and pattern relations were made over the Chicago urban region and the surrounding six Illinois counties (Cook, DuPage, Kane, Will, Lake, and McHenry). These studies utilized raingage records from an urban network of National Weather Service raingages in the region, primarily for the period 1949 to 1974. Frequency distributions of point rainfall were obtained for periods from 5 minutes to 72 hours and recurrence intervals of 6 months to 50 years. These results indicated a spatial pattern of short-duration heavy rainfall frequencies related to urban-lake effects, particularly in the huge industrial region over the southern portion of Chicago. The time distribution within heavy rainstorms over the urban region was determined, and it was found that the point rainfall relations over the urban region were similar to a 12-year sample of a dense raingage network over a rural area in central Illinois. The characteristics of heavy rainfall over northeast Illinois were also studied through the use of heavy, 1-day storms. A total of 87 storms, capable of producing local flooding, were analyzed to determine 1) the frequency distribution of storm centers, 2) seasonal and diurnal distribution of storms, and 3) orientation and movement of storms.     

CHARACTERISTICS AND CONTRIBUTING CAUSES OF AN ABNORMAL FREQUENCY OF FLOOD-PRODUCING RAINSTORMS AT CHICAGO1

ABSTRACT: Major hydrometeorological factors pertinent to defining and understanding the hydrologic characteristics of urban and other small-basin storms were investigated using data from a continuous 44-year operation of a recording raingage network in Chicago. Factors included: the frequency distribution of basin mean rainfall and its relation to storm maximum precipitation; the spatial distribution characteristics of each storm, including storm rainfall reduction factors which are widely used in hydrologic design problems; and weather-related causes related to the frequency and intensity of severe rainstorms in the Chicago area in recent years. Results have indicated that urban mean rainfall frequencies were overestimated in earlier studies in which they were derived from point/areal mean rainfall ratios obtained from much shorter records on rural networks. Reduction factors were found to vary between urban and rural storm systems due to urban-related effects. Two factors were found to be potential contributors to the characteristics of severe rainstorm occurrences at Chicago. These include urban-induced rain enhancement and an upward climatic trend in the occurrence of heavy rainfall events during the sampling period. Study results should be generally applicable to other large urban areas in the Midwest and other regions of similar precipitation climate.     

HEAVY RAINSTORMS IN CHICAGO: INCREASING FREQUENCY,ALTERED IMPACTS,AND FUTURE IMPLICATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Operations of a dense raingage network in the Chicago area since 1989 provided data to assess the temporal and spatial distributions of heavy rainstorms. The 12‐year average was 4.4 storms per year, 40 percent more than in the 1948 to 1980 period, reflecting an ongoing Midwestern increase in heavy rains. The total rainfall from the 53 heavy rainstorms maximized over the city, reflecting previous observations that the influence of the city and Lake Michigan on the atmosphere causes an increase in heavy rains. Impacts from the record high number of eight storms in 2001 revealed that efforts to control flooding including the Deep Tunnel system, had reduced street and basement flooding in the moderate intensity storms, but the two most intense storms, each with 100‐year rainfall values, led to excessive flooding and a need to release flood waters into Lake Michigan. Results suggest continuing increases in the number of heavy rainstorms in future years, which has major implications for water managers in Chicago and elsewhere.     

USE OF A DAM BREAK MODEL TO ASSESS FLOODING AT HADDAM NECK NUCLEAR POWER PLANT1

Because of their proximity to necessary supplies of cooling water, nuclear power plants are susceptible to riverine flooding. Greater flood hazards exist where plants are located downstream of large dams. The consequences of the Quabbin Reservoir dam failure on the Haddam Neck Nuclear Power Plant situated on the Connecticut River were investigated using a dam break flood routing model. Reasons for selecting a particular model are presented and the input assumptions for the modeling process are developed. Relevant information concerning the level of manpower involvement is presented. The findings of this analysis demonstrate that the plant is adequately protected from the consequences of the postulated flood event.     

HEAVY RAINFALL DISTRIBUTIONS BY SEASON IN LOUISIANA: SYNOPTIC INTERPRETATIONS AND QUANTILE ESTIMATES1

ABSTRACT: In most studies, quantile estimates of extreme 24-hour rainfall are given in annual probabilities. The probability of experiencing an excessive storm event, however, differs throughout the year. As a result, this paper explored the differences between heavy rainfall distributions by season in Louisiana. It was concluded by using the Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney tests that the distribution of heavy rainfall events differs significantly between particular seasons at the sites near the Gulf Coast. Furthermore, seasonal frequency curves varied dramatically at the four sites examined. Mixed distributions within these data were not found to be problematic, but the mechanisms that produced the events were found to change seasonally. Extreme heavy rainfall events in winter and spring were primarily generated by frontal weather systems, while summer and fall events had high proportions of events produced by tropical disturbances and airmass (free-convective) conditions.     

CHICAGO METROPOLITAN FLOODWATER MANAGEMENT PLAN1

ABSTRACT: The Chicago Metropolitan Floodwater Management Plan is a cooperative planning program under Public Law 566 of the 83rd Congress (The Watershed Protection and Flood Prevention Act). The planning effort was jointly sponsored by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service, and the Metropolitan Sanitary District of Greater Chicago. The project is unique in that it studies a 1260 square mile (3266 sq. kilometer) watershed, which is approximately 35 percent urbanized and contains approximately 7.5 million people. At present, approximately 4.4 percent or 330,600 people live in a floodplain. It is presently estimated that 80,000 acres (32,000 ha.) of the study area are subject to flooding with a current average annual damage estimated at approximately $10 million. The Plan which has been developed to reduce or eliminate these damages is divided into six separate watershed plans, and has been developed through extensive use of local citizen watershed steering committees. The paper discusses the planning process, public participation and implementation both at an overall river basin level and watershed case study level.     

POSSIBLE DIVERSION OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER WATER TO TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO1

ABSTRACT .A summary is presented of remarks made at a conference held at Louisiana Tech University on the possibility of diverting some of the Mississippi River water to Texas and New Mexico. The Texas Water Plan which has initiated the diversion possibility is discussed and particular reference is made to the activities of the federal and state agencies directly responsible for determining various aspects of the diversion study. These agencies include the Texas Water Development Board, Texas Water Quality Board, Louisiana Department of Public Works, State Engineer's Office of New Mexico, Mississippi River Commission, and the Bureau of Reclamation.     

SOIL MOISTURE SENSORS FOR URBAN LANDSCAPE IRRIGATION: EFFECTIVENESS AND RELIABILITY1

ABSTRACT: Granular matrix soil moisture sensors were used to control urban landscape irrigation in Boulder, Colorado, during 1997. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the effectiveness and reliability of the technology for water conservation. The 23 test sites included a traffic median, a small city park, and 21 residential sites. The results were very good. The system limited actual applications to an average of 73 percent of the theoretical requirement. This resulted in an average saving of $331 per installed sensor. The sensors were highly reliable. All 23 sensors were placed in service at least three years prior to the 1997 study during earlier studies. Of these, only two had failed by the beginning of the 1997 study, both due to external factors. Including replacement of these failed sensors, the total repair cost for the 1997 irrigation season was less than $270. The effort required to maintain each system was small, only about 6–7 minutes per visit. Each site was visited weekly for this study, but less frequent visits could be made in practice. The sensors observed in this study performed well, significantly reduced water consumption, and were easy to monitor and maintain. Soil moisture sensors appear to be a useful and economical tool for urban water conservation.     

WATER RESOURCES MODELING AND OPTIMIZATION BASED ON CONSERVATION AND FLOODING POOLS1

ABSTRACT: A new and practical concept in water resources modeling and optimization is introduced. Instead of unrealistically assuming a multipurpose reservoir to be composed of a single lumped pool of water, it is treated as two different pools namely conservation and flood pools. Based on this treatment, the optimization problem is stated using the concepts of Lagrange multipliers and parameter optimization. The optimization problem consists of the material balance equation, the constraints on control and state variables and the objective function.     

TEACHING WATER RESOURCES POLICY TO UNWERSITY SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING STUDENTS: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES1

ABSTRACT: Effectively teaching water resources policy to university science and engineering students is both important and difficult. Most careers in the water resources field require an understanding of the comprehensive governmental regulatory structure affecting water use. Also, few science and engineering curricula encourage their students to take policy courses. Successful approaches to teaching water resources policy might include epistemological comparisons, case studies, issue maps, and interactive simulations. Obstacles to the effective teaching of this subject include students' insufficient preparation and student disdain and cynicism. These obstacles may be mitigated by requiring a prerequisite, developing a glossary of policy-related terms, and introducing the course through lectures emphasizing realistic views of the water resources management field and the nature of the American political system.     

CONTRIBUTIONS OF RAINFALL TO CONSTITUENT LOADS IN STORM RUNOFF FROM URBAN CATCHMENTS1

ABSTRACT: Rainfall is a significant source of some constituents, particularly nitrogen species, in storm runoff from urban catchments. Median contributions of rainfall to storm runoff loads of 12 constituents from 31 urban catchments, representing eight geographic locations within the United States, ranged from 2 percent for suspended solids to 74 percent for total nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen. The median contribution of total nitrogen in rainfall to runoff loads was 41 percent. Median contributions of total-recoverable lead in rainfall to runoff loads varied by as much as an order of magnitude between catchments in the same geographic location. This indicates that average estimates of rainfall contributions to constituent loading in storm runoff may not be suitable in studies requiring accurate constituent mass-balance computations.     

DOWNSCALED CLIMATE AND STREAMFLOW STUDY OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Downscaling coarse resolution climate data to scales that are useful for impact assessment studies is receiving increased attention. Basin-scale hydrologic processes and other local climate impacts related to water resources such as reservoir management, crop and forest productivity, and ecosystem response require climate information at scales that are much finer than current and future GCM resolutions. The Regional Climate System Model (RCSM) is a dynamic downscaling system that has been used since 1994 for short-term precipitation and streamflow predictions and seasonal hindcast analysis with good skill. During the 1997–1998 winter, experimental seasonal forecasts were made in collaboration with the NOAA Climate Prediction Center and UCLA with promising results. Preliminary studies of a control and 2°CO₂ perturbation for the southwestern U.S. have been performed.     

A DIGITAL MODEL APPLIED TO GROUND WATER RECHARGE AND MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: Under Colorado's appropriative water right system, withdrawals by junior ground water rights must be curtailed to protect senior surface water appropriators sharing the same river system unless the ground water users replace the amount of their injury to the river under an approved plan for augmentation. Compensation of such injury with surface water may not only be expensive but unreliable in dry years. As an alternative, the curtailment of pumping may be obviated by recharging unused surface water into the aquifer when available and withdrawing it when needed. In order to manage such an operation, a practical tool is required to accurately determine that portion of the recharge water that does not return to the river before pumping for irrigation. A digital model was used for this purpose in a demonstration recharge project located in the South Platte River basin in northeastern Colorado. This paper summarizes the experiences gained from this project, the results of the digital model, the economic value of recharge, and the feasibility of the operation. It was determined through the use of the digital model that, with the given conditions in the area, 77 percent of the recharged water remained available for pumping. Economic analyses showed that water could be recharged inexpensively averaging about two dollars per acre foot.     

VOTER REACTIONS TO THE 1976 WATER DEVELOPMENT AND QUALITY REFERENDA IN TEXAS1

ABSTRACT: Since 1957, Texans have had the opportunity to vote on eight referenda concerning the allocation of state funds for water resources development and the maintenance of water quality. In 1976, a water development amendment and a water quality amendment were presented simultaneously to the voters of Texas, affording a unique opportunity for electoral-geographic comparison of county-level returns on the two issues. In this paper, cartographic and statistical analyses of the county-level voting outcomes for each referendum are presented. In both cases, the referenda were supported by voters in water-deficient West Texas, especially those counties dependent on irrigated crop production. In contrast, urban voters and East Texans tended to oppose both amendments. However, support for the water quality amendment in the urbanized areas of Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, and San Antonio enabled this amendment to pass statewide while its counterpart failed. The results highlight the importance of local differences in perceived water policy needs, and in doing so they illustrate that geographical anlaysis of returns from initiatives and referenda is a useful tool for understanding the locational conflicts underlying water resources and other policy efforts.     

TOWARDS CHARACTERIZING AND PLANNING FOR DROUGHT IN VERMONT‐PART I: A CLIMATOLOGICAL PERSPECTWE1

ABSTRACT: In the Green Mountain state of Vermont, droughts of one form or another and of varying intensities, seventies, and areal extent are not uncommon occurrences. The 1990s were marked by at least three drought events of which the 1998 to 1999 was the most recent. In spite of this recurrence, ongoing drought monitoring and mitigative planning efforts are not as advanced as they could be and no official drought plan exists for the state. This article is the first of two in this volume. It summarizes the cascade of drought types that impacted the state during the 1998 to 1999 episode. From a number of precipitation statistics and drought indices, fine spatial scales (county or better) were found to best capture the character of drought impacts, while the weekly time step is recommended as the temporal unit around which to base planning and monitoring efforts. The companion article outlines a possible framework for drought planning efforts and highlights key constituencies to be included in the process.     

PCN BASED METAL PARTITIONING IN URBAN SNOWMELT,RAINFALL/RUNOFF,AND RIVER FLOW SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: Drawing an analogy between the popular Soil Conservation Service curve number (SCS‐CN) method based infiltration and metal sorption processes, a new partitioning curve number (PCN) approach is suggested for partitioning of heavy metals into dissolved and particulate bound forms in urban snowmelt, rainfall/runoff, and river flow environments. The parameters, the potential maximum desorption, ψ, and the PCN analogous to the SCS‐CN parameters S and CN, respectively, are introduced. Under the condition of snowmelt, PCN (or ψ) is found to generally rely on temperature, relative humidity, pH, and chloride content; during a rainstorm, ψ is found to depend on the alkalinity and the pH of the rainwater; and in the river flow situation, PCN is found to generally depend on the temperature, pH, and chloride content. The advantage of using PCN instead of the widely used partitioning parameter, K_d, is found to lie in the PCN's efficacy to distinguish the adsorption (or sorption) behavior of metals in the above snowmelt, rainfall/runoff, and river flow situations, analogous to the hydrological behavior of watersheds.     

THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATIC CHANGES FOR WATER RESOURCES OF THE COLORADO AND SACRAMENTO-SAN JOAQUIN RIVER BASINS1

ABSTRACT: A wide variety of regional assessments of the water-related impacts of climatic change have been done over the past two decades, using different methods, approaches, climate models, and assumptions. As part of the Water Sector research for the National Assessment of the Implications of Climatic Variability and Change for the United States, several major summaries have been prepared, looking at the differences and similarities in results among regional research projects. Two such summaries are presented here, for the Colorado River Basin and the Sacramento River Basin. Both of these watersheds are vitally important to the social, economic, and ecological character of their regions; both are large snowmelt-driven basins; both have extensive and complex water management systems in place; and both have had numerous, independent studies done on them. This review analyzes the models, methods, climate assumptions, and conclusions from these studies, and places them in the context of the new climate scenarios developed for the National Assessment. Some significant and consistent impacts have been identified for these basins, across a wide range of potential climate changes. Among the most important is the shift in the timing of runoff that results from changes in snowfall and snowmelt dynamics. This shift has been seen in every regional result across these two basins despite differences in models and climate change assumptions. The implications of these impacts for water management, planning, and policy are discussed.     

THE GROUND WATER FLUX OF NITROGEN AND PHOSPHORUS TO BERMUDA'S COASTAL WATERS1

ABSTRACT: The concentrations of dissolved fixed inorganic nitrogen (ΣN) in Bermuda ground waters can be very high due to both natural and anthropogenic processes. The high anthropogenic flux is due to domestic cesspit operation. Mass balance calculations indicate that ground water seepage, especially rich in ΣN, is a major source of nutrients into the near shore coastal zone of Bermuda. The ground water flux of ΣN is approximately 1.5 to 4 times that of the sewage flux of ΣN to Bermuda's nearshore waters. This input of ΣN may be important in the development of algal blooms in these waters. Our work, coupled with other recent investigations, suggests that the ground water input of nutrients into nearshore marine waters is an important process globally.     

PREDICTION OF MEAN ANNUAL FLOWS IN NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: A frequency analysis approach for the prediction of flow characteristics at ungaged locations is applied to a region of high annual precipitation and low topography in north and central Florida. Stationary time series of annual flows are fitted with the lognormal distribution and estimated parameters of the distribution are fitted by third order trend surfaces. These explain 65 and 74 percent of the observed variances in the mean and standard deviation, respectively. Predictions of parameters are then made for several locations previously unused in the study and they are used to estimate the return periods of various flows from the lognormal distribution. Application of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit test suggests that only one of the five test stations can be considered significantly different from the observed data, confirming the applicability of this technique.     

APPROACHES TO WATER RESOURCE POLICY AND PLANNING IN TEXAS1

ABSTRACT: Texas is one of the states in which limitations in water supplies could severely constrain economic growth in certain areas. The traditional planning approach for addressing this problem has involved devising schemes for large water development projects, which for many years included the importation of water from other states. Now the attitude towards water resource management is changing, and it is generally agreed that better management of existing supplies is the preferred approach. In this paper we review some of the changes that have recently occurred in Texas, including attempts to streamline the water institutions in such a way that they might be more responsive to the need for more comprehensive management of water resources statewide, with greater emphasis on social and environmental concerns.