Evaluating mine plans under uncertainty: Can the real options make a difference?

Over the last few years, many studies have presented the real options valuation (ROV) as a promising technique of valuing natural resource investments under conditions of uncertainty. Apart from the common conclusion that the ROV is better than the conventional net present value (NPV) method in integrating the value of management flexibility and proper handling of cash flows risk, there is a lack of procedures for testing the usefulness and advantages of the ROV over the static NPV method in practice. Arguably, it is not yet clear whether the ROV can deal with the complexity of mining projects and whether it can really be applied to make decisions that improve project value.     

THE MEASUREMENT OF IMPACTS IN SMALL WATERSHEDS FOR FLOOD CONTROL1

ABSTRACT: An analogue method of ex post evaluation is proposed as a method of measuring the effectiveness of small watershed projects in obtaining flood control and economic benefits. Two watersheds were compared on a “with vs. without” project basis by both direct and indirect measurement of economic benefits. Direct measurements indicated that small watershed flood control projects did not generate the expected economic benefits. However, the indirect measurements of the same watersheds using land value enhancement as a surrogate suggested that the expected economic benefits were reflected in differential land values. The economic efficiency of small watershed projects should be measured ex ante and ex post on a “with vs. without” project basis rather than on a “before vs. after” basis whether using direct or surrogate variables.     

The practice of participatory research and gender analysis in natural resource management

Stakeholder participation is expected to improve the efficiency, equity, and sustainability of natural resource management research and development (R&D) projects by ensuring that research reflects users’ priorities, needs, capabilities, and constraints. Use of participatory methods and tools is growing rapidly; however, there is little systematic evidence about what participation actually means in practice, or about what difference it makes. Based on an inventory of 59 self‐described participatory R&D projects in the area of natural resource management, this article characterizes the typical project and analyzes how stakeholders are selected, how they participate in the research process, and what their involvement means for project costs and impacts. The results suggest that, while projects are generating a range of direct and indirect benefits for participants, more careful attention needs to be paid to achieving equitable impacts. Current practices may lag behind best practices in key areas, such as power sharing and participant selection, and may therefore be missing important contributions from women and other marginalized groups.     

Erosion risk analysis by GIS in environmental impact assessments: a case study--Seyhan Köprü Dam construction

Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is a systematically constructed procedure whereby environmental impacts caused by proposed projects are examined. Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are crucially efficient tools for impact assessment and their use is likely to dramatically increase in the near future. GIS have been applied to a wide range of different impact assessment projects and dams among them have been taken as the case work in this article. EIA Regulation in force in Turkey requires the analysis of steering natural processes that can be adversely affected by the proposed project, particularly in the section of the analysis of the areas with higher landscape value. At this point, the true potential value of GIS lies in its ability to analyze spatial data with accuracy. This study is an attempt to analyze by GIS the areas with higher landscape value in the impact assessment of dam constructions in the case of Seyhan-K?prü Hydroelectric Dam project proposal. A method needs to be defined before the overlapping step by GIS to analyze the areas with higher landscape value. In the case of Seyhan-K?prü Hydroelectric Dam project proposal of the present work, considering the geological conditions and the steep slopes of the area and the type of the project, the most important natural process is erosion. Therefore, the areas of higher erosion risk were considered as the Areas with Higher Landscape Value from the conservation demands points of view.     

Buying price of event information in two-action decision problems

Being able to determine in advance whether certain events occur or not enables a decision maker to reduce the uncertainty of a two-action lottery, although the exact outcome of the lottery may still not be known with certainty. This paper studies the á priori value of information in such a decision making environment. Of interest to the decision maker is to compare the value of information about different events in advance of gathering the information. Using buying price as value of information, we show that when information about the occurrence of two different events are offered to a risk neutral decision maker, the event with a greater contribution in absolute value to the expected value of the lottery has higher value in terms of its buying price. For risk averse decision makers, a preference condition needs to be imposed on the set difference of two events to obtain a generic conclusion. We provide several examples that demonstrate the usefulness of these results.     

HYDROLOGIC ENGINEERING TECHNIQUES FOR REGIONAL WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

The emphasis upon comprehensive regional water resources planning in the past decade has encouraged the hydrologic engineer to take advantage of improvements in technology to develop new hydrologic engineering techniques for use in regional planning studies. The new techniques are necessary because the traditional hydro-logic engineering techniques are not always consistent with the increased scope and diversified objectives of regional planning studies. The Hydrologic Engineering Center has been involved in aiding in the development of some of these new techniques as the result of studies that have been made in cooperation with other Corps of Engineers offices. Most of the new techniques being developed emphasize computational procedures developed specifically for use with electronic computers. Applications of new techniques range from framework studies to planning of day-to-day operation criteria. Studies recently completed or in progress include: (1) development of a regional flood control site screening plan for the North Atlantic Region study; (2) use of streamflow simulation for planning and operation of the Missouri River mainstem projects; (3) development of an operation plan for the Arkansas-White-Red Rivers Reservoir System; (4) standard project flood and flood frequency estimates for the Colorado River Basin Framework Study; and several other projects which are described in more detail in the following paragraphs. One of the initial efforts in regional analysis was the formulation of procedures for determining standard project flood estimates for southern California coastal streams using generalized criteria. Techniques were developed that were readily adaptable to the computer and which would determine representative unit hydrographs, losses and standard project precipitation for any location in the study area. The resulting standard project flood estimates were consistent with the accuracy required for framework studies; however, they could be refined easily for design studies. As a result of the recent drought in the Northeastern United States, a study was made to evaluate both present and future water supply reservoirs in that region. The study consisted of computerized studies of the hypothetical operation of a large number of reservoirs as a system. The reservoirs were on many different streams throughout the region and had varying constraints, depending upon the stream and the state in which the reservoir was located. Since only preliminary data was available on the proposed reservoirs, it was not possible to refine the studies to a large degree. However, the models of each system can be easily refined as more accurate design data become available. The development of a computer-aided screening procedure for use in evaluating several hundred potential reservoir sites for the Missouri River Basin Comprehensive Framework Study is a third example of regional analysis. The adopted procedures used available physical, hydrologic, and climatologic data in estimating reservoir storage requirements throughout the basin. Because the procedure is based upon the techniques often used in more refined studies, it is expected that the results of the screening study will be very useful in future planning and design work. Shortcomings of some of the traditional techniques have helped in the development of new techniques. For maximum usefulness the new techniques should: (1) be consistent with the scope, objectives, and requirements of the overall study; (2) use all available physical, hydrologic, and climatologic data without requiring extensive data which may not be available; (3) take full advantage of the capabilities of the computer and associated data processing systems; and (4) produce results which form a firm basis for future, more detailed, planning and design studies instead of being limited in usefulness largely to the study at hand.     

Multiobjective Assessment of Multipurpose Water Resources Projects for Developing Countries

Multiobjective assessments of water resource projects are useful for widening the range of impacts that are considered during the process of project planning and selection. Some of the principles and problems associated with multiobjective analyses are reviewed, as are several relatively simple information display techniques and approaches found applicable to conditions in many developing countries. These techniques can be used where data and technical expertise are limited, and where it is not possible to identify and quantify all economic, environmental or social objectives and their trade-offs during the search for the best compromise decision.     

Redressing China’s Strategy of Water Resource Exploitation

China, with the confrontation of water-related problems as an element of its long history, has been investing heavily in water engineering projects over the past few decades based on the assumption that these projects can solve its water problems. However, the anticipated benefits did not really occur, or at least not as large as expected. Instead, the results involved additional frustrations, such as biodiversity losses and human-induced disasters (i.e., landslides and earthquakes). Given its inherent shortcomings, the present engineering-dominated strategy for the management of water resources cannot help solve China’s water problems and achieve its goal of low-carbon transformation. Therefore, the present strategy for water resources exploitation needs to be reevaluated and redressed. A policy change to achieve better management of Chinese rivers is urgently needed.     

Needs-based sewerage prioritization: alternative to conventional cost-benefit analysis

This paper presents an empirical approach to select and prioritize sewerage projects within set budgetary limitations. The methodology includes a model which quantifies benefits of a sewerage project as an index or dimensionless number. The index considers need and urgency of sewerage and other project goals. Benefit is defined as the difference in anticipated impact between the current condition (without the project) and the expected condition with the project. Anticipated benefits primarily include reduction in environmental pollution, reduction of human diseases and morbidity, and other tangible and intangible improvement. This approach is a powerful decision tool for sewerage prioritization and an effective alternative to conventional cost-benefit analysis. Unlike conventional analysis, this approach makes no attempt to convert project benefits and other impacts into a monetary measure. This work recognizes that the decision to provide sewerage based solely on net benefits is not practical. Instead, benefit-cost ratios (B/C) are calculated utilizing cost-effectiveness approach. Using these ratios, 16 unserviced areas of Ensenada, Mexico are ranked. The prioritization rankings produced by this method must be further scrutinized and carefully reviewed for logic, accuracy of input data, and practicality of implementation. A similar framework may also be useful for prioritizing other public works projects.     

Decision process in large-scale crisis management

This paper deals with the decision-aiding process in large-scale crisis such as natural disasters. It consists in four phases: decision context characterisation, system modelling, aggregation and integration. The elements of the context, such as crisis level, risk situation, decision-makers, problem issue are defined through the characterisation phase. At the feared event occurrence, these elements will interact on a target system. Through the model on this system, the consequences to stakes could be assessed or estimated. The presented aggregation approaches will allow taking the right decisions. The architecture of a Decision Support System is presented in the integration phase.     

自愿减排项目碳泄漏：内涵、类别及应对

自愿减排项目是碳排放交易市场抵消机制的运行载体,灵活的自愿减排抵消机制是碳排放交易市场的补充,对应对全球气候变化问题具有重要意义。碳泄漏,作为严重影响抵消项目减排效率的热点问题值得关注。目前,中国已形成较大规模的自愿减排市场,截至2018年底,国家发展改革委共签发了约7200万tCO_2当量减排量,我国在建立健全自愿减排抵消市场机制的过程中,需要把握项目碳泄漏的负外部性这一实质,厘清其运行机理并积极应对。本文旨在系统阐述该问题,并为进一步实现抵消项目减排潜力提供思路和方向:从自愿减排项目碳泄漏的内涵与定义出发,首先对项目碳泄漏的分类进行梳理,并依据产生途径的不同重点分析了活动转移排放、生命周期、市场路径、生态以及技术泄漏的作用机制、影响因素及其相应的研究方法;其次从具体项目应用、系统项目应用和宏观应用三个层面讨论了应对自愿减排项目碳泄漏问题的管理对策;最后结合我国自愿减排抵消市场的实际情况,建议未来抵消项目碳泄漏的应对和管理应在分门别类对其概念进行精准定义的基础上将解决措施的成本效益考虑在内,此外,在评估泄漏量时需要同时测算不同类型的碳泄漏,探究其协同效应以免高估其泄漏程度。     

Natech风险研究:现状、理论及展望

由自然灾害引发的工业企业环境安全事故又称为自然灾害诱发的技术事故(Natech).我国是工业大国,重化工业是我国的主导产业之一;同时我国还是世界上自然灾害严重的国家之一,Natech风险不容忽视.开展Natech风险识别、评估和管理研究,有助于我国Natech风险管理体系的完善,防范和降低区域Natech风险.目前,我国Natech风险基础研究尚处于起步阶段,难以支撑我国Natech风险防控实践.本文从Natech风险发生机制、风险评估、风险感知与最大可接受风险水平、风险管理体系等四个方面回顾了国内外Natech风险研究现状,初步梳理了Natech风险的基本理论,并对我国未来Natech风险的研究方向进行了展望,为我国Natech风险研究领域的发展提供参考.     

The importance of local context in the planning of environmental projects: examples from two biogas cases

The planning of facilities to improve the environment is often carried through in the form of locally based construction projects. These projects can be complex, involving a variety of issues and a number of different actors from both the public and private sectors. By drawing on previous research on project planning, an analytical model for analysing the issues connected with the planning and implementation of environmental projects is developed. The main argument of the paper is the importance of considering how context-specific factors affect project design and project management. The empirical material is taken from the planning of two biogas projects in Sweden and it is showed how differences in factors such as the actors involved, the organisational framework and the political setting lead to two markedly distinct planning approaches. The results of the paper, which also highlight the importance of a flexible planning approach, are relevant not only for biogas but also for other projects with similar characteristics.     

MEETING THE CHALLENGE OF POLICY-RELEVANT SCIENCE: LESSONS FROM A WATER RESOURCE PROJECT1

ABSTRACT: Water resource scientists face complex tasks in evaluating aspects of water projects, but relatively few assessment procedures have been applied and accepted as standard applications. Decision-makers often rely on environmental assessments to evaluate the value and operation of projects. There is often confusion about scientists' role in policy decisions. The scientist can affect policy-making as an expert withess, an advocate or a surrogate. By understanding the policy process, scientists can make their work more “policy relevant.” Using the Terror Lake hydro project in Alaska as a guide, three lessons are discussed: (1) not all problems are able to be solved with technology; (2) policy-relevant technology is rarely imposed on a problem; and (3) the scientist need not just react to the policy process, but can have an impact on how that process unfolds.     

Natural disaster mitigation: Environmental approaches in Tonga and Algeria

Summary The mitigation of natural disasters essentially depends upon the identification and adjustment of human ecological processes contributing to conditions of vulnerability. The analysis of vulnerability requires the local study of political, social, and economic processes which have contributed, and are contributing, to a vulnerable condition in a hazardous environment. One of the few similarities between Tonga and Algeria is a continuing experience of natural disaster after independence from previous colonial administrations. In two very different but complementary projects, ways are identified for the adjustment of assumed or inherited priorities for development, to take practical account of continuing hazards. The high vulnerability of rural areas is a factor common to both countries, as well as to many others. The analysis of conditions and systems in two dissimilar countries may have begun a process of implementation, one which must necessarily follow theoretical analysis for the realisation of practical value. The degree and nature of disaster impact is conditioned as much by normally prevailing conditions and systems as by the manifestation of natural hazard. Direct experience of hazardous environments, and of problems caused by disaster, must be made to result in the creation of multi-disciplinary environmental policies for disaster mitigation, inclusive of small scale development and education and training programmes for continued implementation. Comprehensive and simultaneous strategies for disaster avoidance, disaster resistance, and disaster accomodation must be made integral components of local development planning.     

A VIABLE METHODOLOGY TO IMPLEMENT THE PRINCIPLES AND STANDARDS1

ABSTRACT: The “principles and standards for planning water and related land resources” were made effective October 25, 1973. The document was noticeably deficient in suggestions for the necessary implementing procedures to ensure its success. Current implementing procedures are based on an incorrect premise of maximizing a single objective subject to non-quantified constraints. A successful implementation of multiple objective planning requires optimizing simultaneously several competitive goals. A system of goal programming has been developed and applied to decisionmaking situations as a test of its usefulness in planning for multiple objective water resources projects. The result is a project planning process which can be replicated for adjustments in expected resource supplies or demands to provide a tradeoff matrix between economic and environmental objectives as well as traditional functional purposes. This procedure, tested on the Cross Florida Barge Canal, is an integrated analysis of economic and environmental values which may be as effective in implementing multiple objective planning as the “Green Book” was in developing the now inappropriate benefit cost analysis.     

Wetland ecological and compliance assessments in the San Francisco Bay Region, California, USA

The San Francisco Bay Region of the California Regional Water Quality Control Board (SFB CRWQCB) and the San Francisco District of the US Army Corps of Engineers (US ACOE) are looking for an expeditious means to determine whether regulated wetland projects produce ecologically valuable systems and remain in compliance with their permits (i.e. fulfill their legal requirements) until project completion. A study was therefore undertaken in which 20 compensatory wetland mitigation projects in the San Francisco Bay Region were reviewed and assessed for both permit compliance and habitat function, and this was done using a rapid assessment method adapted for this purpose. Thus, in addition to determining compliance and function, a further goal of this study was to test the efficacy of the assessment method, which, if useful, could be applied not only to mitigation projects, but also to restoration projects and natural wetland systems. Survey results suggest that most projects permitted 5 or more years ago are in compliance with their permit conditions and are realizing their intended habitat functions. The larger restoration sites or those situated between existing wetland sites tend to be more successful and offer more benefits to wildlife than the smaller isolated ones. These results are consistent with regulatory experience suggesting that economies of scale could be realized both with (1) large scale regional wetland restoration sites, through which efforts are combined to control invasive species and share costs, and (2) coordinated efforts by regulatory agencies to track project information and to monitor the increasing number and size of mitigation and restoration sites. In regard to the assessment methods, we find that their value lies in providing a consistent protocol for evaluations, but that the ultimate assessment will rely heavily on professional judgment, regulatory experience, and the garnering of pre-assessment information.     

Estimating the volatility of mining projects considering price and operating cost uncertainties

In the real option pricing model of valuation and decision making, the estimation of future volatility is a key input parameter. For traded commodities or financial assets, past volatility is used as a proxy for predictions. But, for projects, this approach is not feasible because, in most cases, historical data of traded projects are not available. As an alternate solution, it is usually assumed that project volatility is equal to that of commodity price. In order to investigate this assumption, we estimate the project volatility considering that both commodity price and operating cost evolve as a geometric Brownian motion (GBM). Results of a hypothetical gold mining project indicate that project volatility is higher than that of commodity price and it only drops to price volatility under very unrealistic industry conditions, such as very high prices or very low production costs. In addition, we find that project volatility is independent of production capacity and taxation, but depends on increments in price and cost, as well as strongly on their degree of correlation.     

生态环境与洪旱灾害

作者将自然运动与人类活动、生态环境与气候结合起来研究，求索洪旱灾害之谜，着重探讨了其中多种生态环境因素。由大灾后的反思，找出灾害加剧的人为原因是：人中激增、生态危机、水利失修等，提出必须加强防灾减灾的对策研究。     

Flood control failure: San Lorenzo River,California

The San Lorenzo River on the central California coast was the site of a major US Army Corps of Engineers flood control project in 1959. By excavating the channel below its natural grade and constructing levees, the capacity of the river was increased in order to contain approximately the 100 year flood. Production and transport of large volumes of sediment from the river's urbanizing watershed has filled the flood control project with sand and silt. The natural gradient has been re-established, and flood protection has been reduced to containment of perhaps the 30 year flood. In order for the City of Santa Cruz, which is situated on the flood plain, to be protected from future flooding,it must either initiate an expensive annual dredging program, or replan and rebuild the inadequately designed flood control channel. It has become clear, here and elsewhere, that the problem of flooding cannot simply be resolved by engineering. Large flood control projects provide a false sense of security and commonly produce unexpected channel changes.