Satellite-Derived Mean Fire Return Intervals As Indicators Of Change In Siberia (1995–2002)

Under current climate change scenarios, temperatures in Siberia are expected to increase, and consequently, fire is also expected to increase. Potential climate-induced change is difficult to assess in Siberia because ground-based fire data are not complete. This investigation introduces a method by which potential climate-induced change can be remotely evaluated. Mean fire return intervals are established for 58 ecosystems across Siberia using eight years of satellite-based area burned data (1995 to 2002). Mean fire return intervals should decrease under current climate change scenarios, however the results do not currently demonstrate consistent evidence of fire-induced change. The overall boreal forest mean fire return interval is lower than the published mean, inferring increased fire. Most notably, using satellite data to calculate mean fire return intervals in individual ecosystems for the entire population of fire is shown to be a viable method by which potential climate-induced land cover change can be evaluated.     

国外气候变化对旅游业影响的定量研究进展与启示

加强气候变化对旅游业影响的定量研究,有助于旅游业在气候变化背景下实现可持续发展。基于SCI/SSCI文献数据库,梳理分析国外气候变化对旅游业影响的定量研究进展。结果显示,30余年来国外主要采用指标方法、需求模型与选择分析方法开展相关研究。20世纪80年代末出现的指标方法是运用最早、最广泛的方法,主要用于旅游资源环境变化等研究,呈现由单项指标转向综合指标的应用趋势;20世纪90年代末兴起的需求模型主要用于天气状况对旅游需求的影响等研究,呈现由时间序列模型转向累计需求模型的应用趋势;21世纪兴起的选择分析主要用于气候变化背景下的行为意愿等研究,呈现由描述统计转向离散选择模型的应用趋势。这些给我国研究的启示是：在研究方法与研究领域上,重点加强累计需求模型在旅游流相关研究中的运用,加强离散选择模型在旅游市场结构相关研究中的运用,加强系统科学方法与大数据技术在相关研究中的运用;在研究对象上,丰富中国境内气候敏感型旅游活动的相关研究,加强“一带一路”沿线国家、地区及青藏高原的相关研究。     

Afforestation opportunities when stand productivity is driven by a high risk of natural disturbance: a review of the open lichen woodland in the eastern boreal forest of Canada

Afforestation has the potential to offset the increased emission of atmospheric carbon dioxide and has therefore been proposed as a strategy to mitigate climate change. Here we review the opportunities for carbon (C) offsets through open lichen woodland afforestation in the boreal forest of eastern Canada as a case study, while considering the reversal risks (low productivity, fires, insect outbreaks, changes in land use and the effects of future climate on growth potential as well as on the disturbances regime). Our results suggest that : (1) relatively low growth rate may act as a limiting factor in afforestation projects in which the time available to increase C is driven by natural disturbances; (2) with ongoing climate change, a global increase in natural disturbance rates, mainly fire and spruce budworm outbreaks, may offset any increases in net primary production at the landscape level; (3) the reduction of the albedo versus increase in biomass may negatively affect the net climate forcing; (4) the impermanence of C stock linked to the reversal risks makes this scenario not necessarily cost attractive. More research, notably on the link between fire risk and site productivity, is needed before afforestation can be incorporated into forest management planning to assist climate change mitigation efforts. Therefore, we suggest that conceivable mitigation strategies in the boreal forest will likely have to be directed activities that can reduce emissions and can increase C sinks while minimizing the reversal impacts. Implementation of policies to reduce Greenhouse Gases (GHG) in the boreal forest should consider the biophysical interactions, the different spatial and temporal scales of their benefits, the costs (investment and benefits) and how all these factors are influenced by the site history.     

IPCC第一工作组评估报告分析及建议

2021年8月6日,政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第一工作组第六次评估报告(AR6)发布,针对气候系统变化科学领域最新研究进展和成果进行了全面、系统的评估. AR6以更强有力的证据进一步确定了近百年全球气候变暖的客观事实,人类活动对气候变暖影响的信号更为清晰. 本文总结了历次IPCC评估报告,并从气候现状、未来可能的气候状态、风险评估和区域适应气候变化信息以及减缓未来气候变化4个方面对AR6进行系统梳理. 结果表明:人类活动产生的温室气体对大气、海洋、冰冻圈和生物圈的影响前所未有,引发了全球许多地区的极端天气和气候极端事件. 未来若温室气体排放没有显著减少,到2100年全球地表温度将至少升高2.1 ℃;如若人类影响得到有效改善,在最低排放情景(SSP1-1.9)中,2055年将变为负碳,到21世纪末气温开始再次下降. 减少CH₄等其他污染物可以为全球气候治理争取时间,并改善空气质量. 建议中国应对气候变化应加强基础科学研究,聚焦模式开发和应用及与各工作组之间的衔接,加快短寿命气候强迫(SLCFs)与温室气体协同控制研究,强化应对气候变化政策措施的科技支撑等.      

气候变化对湿地景观格局的影响研究综述

气候变化是影响湿地景观格局变化的主要自然因素。文章从气候变化对湿地水资源面积、湿地土地利用格局、湿地植被空间格局及湿地生物多样性格局的影响研究等方面进行了综述,并对完善气候变化下湿地景观格局变化的研究方法和技术手段进行了探讨。指出:应用气候模型进行未来气候预测时,应合理选择气候变化情景,并确保不同模型的时空尺度匹配;应用"3S"技术提取湿地类型信息、观测湿地土地覆盖变化时要确保信息的精度,不同来源的数据必须采取制图综合等手段;实现气候变化下湿地景观结构与生态过程相结合的动态格局分析。     

Accommodation of climate change in coastal areas of cameroon: selection of household-level protection options

Coastal areas are threatened under climate change because of factors related to vulnerability of society and sensitivity of the environment. Protection and adaptation may mitigate the adverse consequences. This research reviews and assesses the options of protection by homeowners in the coastal zone in the southwest region of Cameroon. The coastal zone of Cameroon is studied because of the observed deleterious effect of recent extreme climatic events. From a research sample of 400 households, the house types and protection strategies - which are of two main types: reactive measures and preventive measures taken to offset adverse effects on property, are studied. A multinomial logit function reveals that income, education, age and gender are significant factors determining household’s probability on the selection of protection measures. The study concludes that there are strong implications for adaptation to future climate change, and the ability of homeowners to extensively respond will have to be reinforced not only by communal and public works projects but also through an active government policy to promote climate change adaptation.     

The perceived psychological distance of climate change impacts and its influence on support for adaptation policy

Factors influencing support for climate mitigation policy in the United States are well researched, however, research regarding individuals’ support for climate adaptation policy is relatively sparse. This study explores how an individual’s perception of climate change impacts may influence their support for adaptation actions. Results of a survey of the U.S. public (n = 653) indicates that individuals who believe climate change impacts are unlikely to happen or will primarily affect other people in other places are less likely to be concerned about climate change impacts and less likely to support climate adaptation. However, an individual’s support for climate change adaptation measures is not influenced by their perception of when climate change impacts will occur even when taking into account concern for climate impacts. Critical for policy-makers, a belief that climate adaptation measures will not be effective attenuates the relationship between psychological distance, concern for climate change impacts, and adaptation policy measures. Our results indicate that to effectively communicate about climate change, policy-makers should emphasize that: (i) climate change impacts are occurring, (ii) that their constituents are being affected now, or will be in the future, and (iii) communicate that adaptation measures can be effective in addressing risks associated with climate change impacts.     

土地利用/覆盖变化与气候变化定量关系研究进展

当前,以全球变暖为主要特征的气候变化对人类社会的可持续发展构成了严重威胁,如何有效适应气候变化成为人类面临的共同挑战。研究表明,全球变暖的主要驱动力是人类活动造成的温室气体排放和土地利用方式改变。过去,科学界致力于削减全球温室气体排放,而土地利用与气候变化的关系,以及如何适应气候变化,没有引起足够重视。论文重点阐述土地利用/覆盖变化对区域气候的生物地球物理影响机制,总结土地利用/覆盖与气候变化定量关系的研究进展,得出现阶段研究存在四点不足:①缺乏景观格局与气候过程关系的认识;②较少考虑人类活动对下垫面的影响;③区域气候模式存在局限;④适应气候变化的研究不足。针对上述问题,论文指出基于可持续性的土地系统设计是适应气候变化的有效途径,也是未来气候变化领域的研究重点。     

Extended impacts of climate change on health and wellbeing

Anthropogenic climate change is progressively transforming the environment despite political and technological attempts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to tackle global warming. Here we propose that greater insight and understanding of the health-related impacts of climate change can be gained by integrating the positivist approaches used in public health and epidemiology, with holistic social science perspectives on health in which the concept of ‘wellbeing’ is more explicitly recognised. Such an approach enables us to acknowledge and explore a wide range of more subtle, yet important health-related outcomes of climate change. At the same time, incorporating notions of wellbeing enables recognition of both the health co-benefits and dis-benefits of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies across different population groups and geographical contexts. The paper recommends that future adaptation and mitigation policies seek to ensure that benefits are available for all since current evidence suggests that they are spatially and socially differentiated, and their accessibility is dependent on a range of contextually specific socio-cultural factors.     

Climate change adaptation in the ski industry

Regardless of the success of climate change mitigation efforts, the international community has concluded that societies around the world will need to adapt to some magnitude of climate change in the 21st century. While some economic sectors (e.g., agriculture, water resources and construction) have been actively engaged in climate change adaptation research for years, adaptation has received scant consideration within the tourism-recreation industry. This is particularly the case for adaptation by tourism operators (supply-side). One exception where progress on supply-side climate adaptation has been made is the ski industry. This paper provides a brief overview of the literature on the implications of climate change for the international ski industry and how adaptation by ski area operators has been treated within these studies. This is followed by an inventory of climate adaptation practices currently used by ski industry stakeholders, including the historical development of certain key adaptations and constraints to wider use. The characteristics of ski areas with higher adaptive capacity are identified. Considering the highly competitive nature of the ski industry and the generally low climate change risk appraisal within the industry, climate change adaptation is anticipated to remain individualistic and reactive for some time. With only a few exceptions, the existing climate change literature on winter tourism has not considered the wide range of adaptation options identified in this paper and has likely overestimated potential damages. An important task for future studies is to develop methodologies to incorporate adaptation so that a more accurate understanding of the vulnerability of the international ski industry can be ascertained.     

The determinants mostly disclosed by companies that are members of the Carbon Disclosure Project

Concerns about climate change as a result of anthropic actions have led to an increase in the volume of information disclosed about it in the reports of companies that are members of the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP). In this context, the factors most disclosed remain obscure due to both the complexity of climate change impacts and the stakeholders’ different interests. This study aims to identify which factors are most disclosed in the reports of companies that are members of CDP. For this purpose, it is necessary to investigate if the factors indicated by managers and experts are the main ones disclosed in the reports of Brazilian companies that are members of CDP, as well as to identify which companies stand out in climate change disclosure based on these factors. To this end, 463 reports submitted by 48 companies between 2014 and 2016 were examined and 32 factors were investigated using the NVivo® software. Some companies submitted reports with unified titles, which reduced the sample. The results indicate that certain factors—prevention of pollution, prevention of loss, management of environmental assets, volume of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and climate change strategy—account for 50.03% of the total volume of information disclosed about climate change. The main lesson learned from this research is that climate change mitigation strategy is strongly supported by the evidence of corporate annual reports, and it has relation with the following determinant factors: pollution prevention, loss prevention, environmental asset management, GHG emissions, and the strategy chosen by the companies to deal with climate change. Due to the low volume of research related to loss prevention and pollution prevention, we have identified that little attention has been paid to these items. Based on our results, we recommend that climate change mitigation strategies begin to consider these determinant factors in their structure because both have a strong influence in demonstrating how companies are managing these factors for stakeholders. Therefore, companies can benefit from this data to manage their resources for the maintenance of the social contract (legitimacy) through the factors most disclosed, especially companies with lower scores on the scale of ranking presented. Hence, stakeholders can have access to more information on strategies that mitigate climate change and help companies improve the disclosure of the actions that contribute to reduction of GHG emissions.     

Mitigation needs adaptation: Tropical forestry and climate change

The relationship between tropical forests and global climate change has so far focused on mitigation, while much less emphasis has been placed on how management activities may help forest ecosystems adapt to this change. This paper discusses how tropical forestry practices can contribute to maintaining or enhancing the adaptive capacity of natural and planted forests to global climate change and considers challenges and opportunities for the integration of tropical forest management in broader climate change adaptation. In addition to the use of reduced impact logging to maintain ecosystem integrity, other approaches may be needed, such as fire prevention and management, as well as specific silvicultural options aimed at facilitating genetic adaptation. In the case of planted forests, the normally higher intensity of management (with respect to natural forest) offers additional opportunities for implementing adaptation measures, at both industrial and smallholder levels. Although the integration in forest management of measures aimed at enhancing adaptation to climate change may not involve substantial additional effort with respect to current practice, little action appears to have been taken to date. Tropical foresters and forest-dependent communities appear not to appreciate the risks posed by climate change and, for those who are aware of them, practical guidance on how to respond is largely non-existent. The extent to which forestry research and national policies will promote and adopt management practices in order to assist production forests adapt to climate change is currently uncertain. Mainstreaming adaptation into national development and planning programs may represent an initial step towards the incorporation of climate change considerations into tropical forestry.     

不同气候类型下植物物候的影响因素综述

植物物候对气候变化非常敏感,可作为环境变化对植物生理活动影响的指示。植物物候的变化不仅可反映和预测全球环境的变化,还对地球物质循环和能量流动过程有着重要的影响。因此,结合植物生长背景,全面分析植物物候影响因素,探究植物物候对气候变化的响应是十分必要的。本文基于不同的气候类型下植物物候的研究,介绍了不同气候类型本身存在的气象、地域差异,总结不同气候类型下植物物候地域性特征;总结了热带亚热带气候、温带气候、寒带气候、高原山地气候4大类气候类型下植物物候变化及影响因素;讨论了当前物候研究的主要问题,并对未来研究进行了展望。综述表明,植物物候响应随气候类型呈现出不一致性,不同气候类型下影响植物物候的关键因素也不同。植物物候研究需结合植物生长环境,综合讨论相关影响因素。     

A multi-criteria geographic information systems approach for the measurement of vulnerability to climate change

A flexible procedure for the development of a multi-criteria composite index to measure relative vulnerability under future climate change scenarios is presented. The composite index is developed using the Weighted Ordered Weighted Average (WOWA) aggregation technique which enables the selection of different levels of trade-off, which controls the degree to which indicators are able to average out others. We explore this approach in an illustrative case study of the United States (US), using future projections of widely available indicators quantifying flood vulnerability under two scenarios of climate change. The results are mapped for two future time intervals for each climate scenario, highlighting areas that may exhibit higher future vulnerability to flooding events. Based on a Monte Carlo robustness analysis, we find that the WOWA aggregation technique can provide a more flexible and potentially robust option for the construction of vulnerability indices than traditionally used approaches such as Weighted Linear Combinations (WLC). This information was used to develop a proof-of-concept vulnerability assessment to climate change impacts for the US Army Corps of Engineers. Lessons learned in this study informed the climate change screening analysis currently under way.     

气候变化及人类活动对地表径流改变的贡献率及其量化方法研究进展

地表径流的变化受气候变化和人类活动的双重驱动力作用,定量评估气候变化及人类活动对地表径流变化的影响对水资源管理具有重大意义。论文以水文循环过程为主线,分过程阐述气候变化及人类活动影响地表径流发生变化的机制机理,对各种量化二者对地表径流变化贡献率的方法进行比较,然后分析全球部分流域气候变化和人类活动对地表径流变化影响的差异。研究结果表明：1）气候变化和人类活动参与水文循环的各个过程之中,不同水文过程中气候变化和人类活动影响地表径流变化的途径不同;2）不同量化方法的适用范围和条件不同,不同方法对同一流域的研究结果可能不一致;3）全球不同流域间气候变化和人类活动对地表径流变化贡献率存在明显区域差异。现阶段,综合多种突变检验方法有利于提高识别地表径流突变点的准确率;消除干扰因素（如气象水文等数据选取、模型方法参数设置和方法本身不确定性）有利于提高同一流域不同量化方法评估结果的一致性;如何更好地耦合基于物理的水文模型方法和基于数学的经验统计方法来量化二者对地表径流变化的贡献率是未来研究的重点。     

气候变化背景下“气候产量”计算方法的探讨

气候变化对于粮食安全的影响已成为全球变化研究的热点问题之一。在研究过去几十年尺度上的气候变化对粮食产量影响的程度时,常规的研究方法是利用实际产量的数据拟合出以时间为变量的趋势产量,实际产量与趋势产量的差值即为气候产量。但这种方法在评估气候变暖对粮食产量的影响时存在一定缺陷。在常规算法的基础上,论文提出一种改进算法,即通过选取基准时段,建立反映气候要素与作物单产关系的函数表达式,来估计非基准时段内的气候产量,这种方法主要适用于气候要素存在趋势性变化的时段。以黑龙江省为例,将改进算法和常规算法进行比较,结果显示应用改进算法得到的气候产量更能真实地反映气候变暖对水稻产量的影响。     

气候变化对农业影响评价方法研究进展

近年来,在全球气候变化背景下,气候变化的影响评价研究越来越受到各国科学家和政府的重视,特别是对农业的影响评估研究更为重要.文章主要对观测和模拟在气候变化对农业的影响评价研究中的应用进展进行了介绍,并对该领域未来的研究方向进行了展望,认为加强研究极端天气气候事件的影响;发展农业影响评价集成模式;进一步利用区域气候模式嵌套农业影响评价模式对区域气候变化的影响进行评价,并对其影响的不确定性进行评估.     

Economic impacts of climatic variability and subsidies on European agriculture and observed adaptation strategies

In order to assess agricultural adaptation to climate impacts, new methodologies are needed. The translog distance function allows assessing interactions between different factors, and hence the influence of management on climate impacts. The Farm Accountancy Data Network provides extensive data on farm characteristics of farms throughout the EU15 (i.e. the 15 member states of the European Union before the extension in 2004). These data on farm inputs and outputs from 1990−2003 are coupled with climate data. As climate change is not the only change affecting European agriculture, we also include effects of subsidies and other changes on inputs and outputs of farms throughout Europe. We distinguish several regions and empirically assess (1) climate impacts on farm inputs and outputs in different regions and (2) interactions between inputs and other factors that contribute to the adaptation to these impacts. Changes in production can partly be related to climatic variability and change, but also subsidies and other developments (e.g. technology, markets) are important. Results show that impacts differ per region, and that ‘actual impacts’ cannot be explicitly separated into ‘potential impacts’ and ‘adaptive capacity’ as often proposed for vulnerability assessment. Farmers adapt their practices to prevailing conditions and continuously adapt to changing conditions. Therefore, ‘potential impacts’ will not be observed in practice, leaving it as a mainly theoretical concept. Factors that contribute to the adaptation also differ per region. In some regions more fertilizers or more irrigation can mitigate impacts, while in other regions this amplifies impacts. To project impacts of future climate change on agriculture, current farm management strategies and their influence on current production should be considered. This clearly asks for improved integration of biophysical and economic models.     

Mountain communities and climate change adaptation: barriers to planning and hurdles to implementation in the Southern Rocky Mountain Region of North America

Geographic factors make mountain communities around the world vulnerable to the direct effects of climate change, and reliance on recreation and tourism can increase vulnerability to the secondary economic impacts.The goal of this research was to investigate the current state of community adaptation planning in the Southern Rocky Mountain region of North America. Using original survey data this paper discusses the challenges that community and county officials currently face, the perceived effects of future climate change in this region, and the perceived barriers to adaptation planning and hurdles to adaptation implementation. Results show lack of resources, information and political will are the most commonly reported barriers to adaptation. This paper also examines the connectivity between mountain communities and the surrounding federal public lands. Fifty one percent of respondents report that decisions made on nearby public lands frequently or always affect planning and decision making in their community. Collaborative efforts between these entities are proposed as a way to reduce the resource burden of adaptation planning for both entities. Finally, this paper discusses how attitudes and beliefs about climate change affect responses to questions about adaptation planning. On average, respondents who report higher levels of concern about and belief in climate change and those who are better informed about climate change report higher levels of adaptation planning. Elected officials in this sample have, on average, lower concern about and belief in climate change than bureaucratic respondents. Thus changes in elected official composition or improved leadership on climate change planning by incumbent officials could facilitate progress on adaptation     

Public perception, knowledge and policy support for mitigation and adaption to Climate Change in Costa Rica: Comparisons with North American and European studies

Over the past 20 years considerable efforts have been invested in exploring how the public understands climate change. However, the bulk of this research has been conducted in Europe and North America and little is known about public perceptions of climate change in developing countries. This article presents the results of the first nationally representative study (n?=?1473) of public perceptions of climate change in Costa Rica. In Costa Rica, a large proportion of interviewees (i.e. over 85%) are highly concerned about climate change in general and feel, as noted in European and North American studies, that its impacts are more worrisome for people farthest away (e.g. in the developed countries or among future generations). At the local level, people feel that food (10.5%) and water (16.1%) shortages as well as poverty (11.3%) and heat waves (11.7%) are the most expected impacts of climate change. Analysis of adaptation behaviour responses suggest that individuals have a relatively lower grasp of emergency and prevention disaster plans but are relatively more proactive in preventing hydro-meteorological extremes related to water scarcity or excess. A majority of respondents engage in mitigation behaviours largely for financial or contextual reasons. Finally, support for adaptation and mitigation policy responses is generally high (i.e. above 70% of interviewee supports them) except for the case of internalizing the cost of watershed protection increasing the water tariffs (52.5%). As discussions about mitigation and adaptation become increasingly common within developing countries, questions about public perceptions in that context are more pressing than ever. Work on climate perceptions needs to be carried out in specific countries to better understand which policies are most likely to resonate with public support, and which might be most difficult to implement.