利用轨迹模式模拟近地层臭氧日变化

提出在多条轨迹上应用轨迹模式，以实现对固 区臭氧浓度日变化的模拟，应用该方法对北京燕山石化炼油厂地区的Ｏ３浓度日变化进行了模拟，结果表明模拟值和实测值十分吻和。进一步模拟了当地的臭氧生物特征，并讨论了当地的气象条件和源排放对Ｏ３生成浓度的影响。结果说明削减ＮＯｘ的排放量是控制该地区光化学烟雾形成的关键，而降低燃烃和芳香烃在排放物中所占的比例也是控制该地区光学烟雾的重要手段。     

利用逆向轨迹反演模式估算北京地区甲烷源强

利用连续监测的大气甲烷浓度数据和拉格朗日逆向轨迹反演模式估算出北京甲烷源排放强度，并与根据最新调查数据建立的北京地区甲烷源排放清单进行了比较。排放清单结果表明，北京地区甲烷排放总量为296．4Gg/a，其中，最主要的甲烷排放源为城市垃圾和化石燃料，反映了北京作为一特大城市甲烷排放以人为源为主的特点。利用2000年6月至12月连续观测的有湿合层代表性的北京大气甲烷浓度，通过奇异值分解法（Singular Value Decomposition，SVD）反演出模拟区域的甲烷排放源强度和分布。模式计算与排放清单在甲烷源定性分布上对应较好，定量结果也是合理的。但由于可输入的气象数据有限，轨迹在整个模拟区域内覆盖不均匀，反演出的源块位置有偏差，其中偏差最大的为煤矿的甲烷排放。     

Influence of power plant emissions and industrial emissions on the leeward ozone levels

In this paper a multibox model is applied to investigate how power plant emissions and industrial emissions affect the O₃ levels in a leeward urban area and a farther downwind rural area. Apart from a detailed consideration of one specific situation, the effect of advection is described and the influence of emission reductions on ozone formation is analyzed. The results prove that the characteristics of upstream emissions is of great significance for the O₃ levels. In particular, a reduction of hydrocarbon emissions was proved to be beneficial in all considered cases, while a reduction of primarily NO_x emissions may lead to an enhanced O₃ formation.     

前体物排放变化对珠江三角洲地区秋季臭氧污染演变的影响研究

自2013年以来,珠三角地区SO₂、NO_x及颗粒物等污染物浓度逐渐下降,但臭氧污染日渐凸显.作为二次污染物,臭氧污染演变受到排放与气象条件共同影响.而评估本地前体物人为排放变化、外部传输和气象变化对臭氧污染演变的影响,并识别臭氧污染长期演变趋势的重要驱动因素,是开展区域臭氧污染防控的关键基础.因此,本文采用WRF-SMOKE-CMAQ模拟平台,以2006—2017年广东省和中国大气污染物排放趋势清单为输入清单,以2014年的气象数据为基准年气象场,通过设置不同案例,结合观测数据,定量评估本地、外部排放变化和气象变化对珠三角秋季O₃污染长期演变趋势的影响.结果表明：在2006—2017年期间,整个珠三角9—10月臭氧日最大8 h(MDA8)浓度上升主要由人为排放变化主导,平均每年贡献0.7μg·m^-3,而气象条件总体上抑制了2006—2017年期间珠三角秋季臭氧MDA8浓度的增长,使得秋季臭氧MDA8浓度上升速率下降为0.2μg·m^-3·a^-1;人为排放变化...     

二氧化碳排放与经济增长关系的实证分析

在全球范围内为应对气候变化而达成二氧化碳减排共识的背景下,探求“经济增长”与“二氧化碳排放”间相互关系.运用协整,向量自回归模型,脉冲响应函数以及格兰杰因果检验等方法,对处在经济发展不同阶段区域的人均二氧化碳排放量与经济增长间关系进行因果检验.研究结果表明：区域经济发展与人均二氧化碳排放量存在长期均衡关系,但是由于区域间经济发展水平及发展方式的不同,人均二氧化碳排放量与经济增长间相互影响程度存在差异,且二氧化碳排放量的减少并不是经济增长的必然结果,必须通过产业结构调整,扶持第三产业,使用清洁能源,发展低碳经济的方式来实现,本文对我国碳减排政策的制定具有一定借鉴意义.     

The relationship between ozone and regional tracers in rural Rhode Island

Ozone and regional tracers are directly related at a rural Rhode Island site during summer. Unlike elemental tracers and sulfate, ozone has a significant background which appears to be unrelated to regional-pollution sources. Summer ozone concentrations were apportioned among northeastern and midwestern sources using results from regional-scale receptor modeling of pollution aerosol. The Northeast contributed roughly 40% more than the Midwest, but ‘background’ accounted for up to half of the average ozone concentration.     

南京地区近地面臭氧浓度与气象条件关系研究

通过分析2013—2015年南京地区相关气象要素对近地面臭氧浓度的影响,建立了用于不同季节高浓度臭氧污染事件的预报预警模型,并归纳总结了南京地区高浓度臭氧出现的天气形势.结果表明,近地面臭氧浓度的变化与气象要素密切相关,气温、能见度、日照小时、总(净)辐射辐照度等要素与O_3浓度呈显著正相关,与相对湿度、总(低)云量呈负相关.高浓度臭氧污染是多因子综合作用的结果,典型气象条件表现为:太阳辐射强,低云量少,相对湿度适宜,地面小风速及特定的风向.通过定义高浓度臭氧潜势指数HOPI和风向指数WDI,并综合考虑14:00地面气温、相对湿度及8:00各标准层的相关气象要素,建立了逐季节多指标叠套的高浓度臭氧预报方程.采用2016年资料对其进行检验,发现预报值与观测值的相关系数分别达0.72(冬季)、0.76(春季)和0.73(夏季),说明方程具有较好的拟合效果和可预报性.通过普查历史天气图,归纳了伴随南京地区高浓度臭氧事件出现的8种主要天气形势,即高压类(高压中心G0、高压后部G1)、低压类(低压底部D0、低压前部D1、低压倒槽D2)、均压类(高压相关的均压JG、低压相关的均压JD、其它均压J).其中,以高压后部地面形势出现概率最大,低压前部均压场出现时对应臭氧平均浓度最高.     

Climate and air quality-driven scenarios of ozone and aerosol precursor abatement

In addition to causing domestic and regional environmental effects, many air pollutants contribute to radiative forcing (RF) of the climate system. However, climate effects are not considered when cost-effective abatement targets for these pollutants are established, nor are they included in current international climate agreements. We construct air pollution abatement scenarios in 2030 which target cost-effective reductions in RF in the EU, USA, and China and compare these to abatement scenarios which instead target regional ozone effects and particulate matter concentrations. Our analysis covers emissions of PM (fine, black carbon and organic carbon), SO₂, NO_x, CH₄, VOCs, and CO. We find that the effect synergies are strong for PM/BC, VOC, CO and CH₄. While an air quality strategy targeted at reducing ozone will also reduce RF, this will not be the case for a strategy targeting particulate matter. Abatement in China dominates RF reduction, but there are cheap abatement options also available in the EU and USA. The justification for international cooperation on air quality issues is underlined when the co-benefits of reduced RF are considered. Some species, most importantly SO₂, contribute a negative forcing on climate. We suggest that given current knowledge, NO_x and SO₂ should be ignored in RF-targeted abatement policies.     

广东省夏秋季臭氧污染与台风的关系分析

分析了广东省2015—2021年的臭氧浓度特征,选取2018—2020年台风相对活跃的夏秋季（7—10月）作为研究时段,研究了广东省臭氧污染与台风之间的关系.结果表明,2015—2021年,广东省臭氧浓度经历了先升后降的变化过程,2019年,广东省臭氧第90百分位数浓度达到了有监测数据以来的最高值,但仍未超过国家二级标准限值.广东省在春季与秋季臭氧超标天数较多,且近年来冬春季臭氧超标情况在加剧,秋季臭氧超标情况有所好转.7—10月,广东省约81%的臭氧污染与周边台风活动有关,在受台风影响的污染天中,有约80%发生在台风距离广东2500 km范围内.深圳与汕尾臭氧污染与台风活动关系最密切,夏秋季,超过9成的污染天与台风活动相关;汕头、珠海、中山、茂名、阳江、江门等沿海城市夏秋季臭氧污染天中超过8成与台风活动相关.内陆城市臭氧污染与台风的关联性相对较小,梅州臭氧污染与台风活动关联最小.与在东南亚、我国海南或广东登陆的台风相比,北上的台风更容易导致广东地区出现臭氧污染.在台风外围下沉气流的影响下,珠三角中部等主要大气污染物排放区域及周边容易出现大范围晴热高温天气;水平风速低,水平扩散条件不利...     

基于CiteSpace的城市空间形态与碳排放关系研究进展

城市空间形态与碳排放的关系是低碳城市建设的理论依据。基于WOS和CNKI数据库,采用CiteSpace软件对1991—2022年城市空间形态与碳排放的关系进行了综述。从发文趋势、合作网络、突现词探测、关键词分析等角度,分析了该领域的发展动态、研究热点,并通过关键词聚类对文献相关内容进行综合解析。结果表明：（1）1991—2022年该领域发文量总体呈上升趋势,在国际重要事件节点上,发文量有大幅上升。（2）中国是该领域发文最多的国家,发文量达34.03%,美国发文中心性最高,为0.48,且国家、机构合作紧密。（3）关键词共现表明探究城市形态对碳排放的影响一直是学术界关注的热点;突现词探测表明研究重心逐渐从与交通碳排放相关的城市空气质量转移到与城市形态和碳排放有关的内容上来。（4）从关键词聚类标签来看,国内外将城市碳排放测算作为重中之重,并通过指标量化城市空间形态分析城市形态对碳排放的驱动作用;通过建立模型定量探讨城市空间形态与碳排放的关系是未来的研究趋势。未来应编制规范的城市层面碳排放清单以提高测算精度、拓宽城市形态与碳排放关系的研究尺度、深入挖掘三维城市空间形态与碳排放的关系。     

中国的产业产值与能源消耗碳排放相关性研究

中国经济发展过程中,GDP对碳排放存在单向Granger因果关系.本研究通过2005~2007年30个省市区的产业产值和三次产业生产过程中能源消耗总碳排放量(简述为碳排放量)数据,探讨碳排放量与产业产值之间的线性相关关系.结果表明,总GDP与碳排放量之间,第二、三产业产值与碳排放量间存在显著的线性相关关系.第一产业产值与碳排放量之间不存在显著线性相关关系.以第二、三名义产业产产值为自变量拟合的方程比研究中其他方程能更好地计算碳排放量.     

The effect of aircraft emissions on tropospheric ozone in the northern hemisphere

The effect of aircraft emissions on tropospheric ozone was studied using a two-dimensional zonal model, of longitude vs altitude, extending between 30°–60°N. An emission inventory for the 1987 civil aircraft fleet was constructed based on fuel usage and civil aviation statistics. The addition of the 1987 civil emissions to a modelled standard atmosphere caused increases in concentrations of O₃ (12%; 10 ppbv), NO_x (40%; 20 pptv) and OH (10%) between 8 and 12 km altitude. A doubling and tripling of the emissions corresponding to a present day inclusion of military aircraft and a future scenario, respectively, caused the increase in O₃ to double (19%) and almost triple (25%). The lightning source of NO_x was found to be an important parameter. When this source was ommitted the change in O₃ at the cruise flight altitude increased to 16%, with respect to a standard atmosphere not containing a lightning source of NO_x.     

深圳地区臭氧污染来源的敏感性分析

利用美国EPA开发的区域多尺度空气质量模式CMAQ对2008年8月发生在深圳地区的臭氧污染过程进行模拟,运用源敏感性识别工具DDM-3D分析深圳本地排放源及周边地区排放源对深圳地区臭氧污染形成的敏感性.研究表明,VOCs人为源排放对深圳臭氧形成敏感度高,控制深圳臭氧污染的关键在于控制VOCs人为源排放,控制重点应放在化学品/橡胶/塑胶、印刷、电子产品制造、家具、玩具、制鞋、建筑涂料使用、家用溶剂等方面;深圳的臭氧污染具有区域特征,在不利天气条件下,需与周边城市协调控制才能达到8h平均浓度120μg/m3的目标.     

长三角经济增长与碳排放异速关系及形成机制

低碳经济是长三角高质量一体化发展的内在要求。针对2000—2017年长三角地区经济增长与碳排放时空关联、异速增长关系及影响因素的研究发现：（1）长三角地区经济增长与碳排放具有正向关联,关联强度总体呈“V”型波动变化。2000—2008年高关联强度区相对集中分布于苏南、苏北及浙中等地区,2009—2017年空间关联强度明显下降,大体呈“南低北高”分布。（2）长三角地区经济增长与碳排放异速变化以经济扩张弱型为主,大部分地区经济增长与碳排放异速关系实现由正转负。（3）地理探测器诊断第二产业比例、第三产业比例、城市化和人口密度是驱动长三角地区经济增长与碳排放异速变动的主要因子。（4）多尺度地理加权回归表明人口密度显著负向影响长三角地区经济增长与碳排放异速变化,投资强度和财政支出强度起到抑制作用,城市化和消费水平表现出先促进后抵消作用,第二产业与第三产业占比及固碳水平则起到先抑制后促进作用。     

Identification of close relationship between atmospheric oxidation and ozone formation regimes in a photochemically active region

Understanding ozone (O₃) formation regime is a prerequisite in formulating an effective O₃ pollution control strategy. Photochemical indicator is a simple and direct method in identifying O₃ formation regimes. Most used indicators are derived from observations, whereas the role of atmospheric oxidation is not in consideration, which is the core driver of O₃ formation. Thus, it may impact accuracy in signaling O₃ formation regimes. In this study, an advanced three-dimensional numerical modeling system was used to investigate the relationship between atmospheric oxidation and O₃ formation regimes during a long-lasting O₃ exceedance event in September 2017 over the Pearl River Delta (PRD) of China. We discovered a clear relationship between atmospheric oxidative capacity and O₃ formation regime. Over eastern PRD, O₃ formation was mainly in a NO_x-limited regime when HO₂/OH ratio was higher than 11, while in a VOC-limited regime when the ratio was lower than 9.5. Over central and western PRD, an HO₂/OH ratio higher than 5 and lower than 2 was indicative of NO_x-limited and VOC-limited regime, respectively. Physical contribution, including horizontal transport and vertical transport, may pose uncertainties on the indication of O₃ formation regime by HO₂/OH ratio. In comparison with other commonly used photochemical indicators, HO₂/OH ratio had the best performance in differentiating O₃ formation regimes. This study highlighted the necessities in using an atmospheric oxidative capacity-based indicator to infer O₃ formation regime, and underscored the importance of characterizing behaviors of radicals to gain insight in atmospheric processes leading to O₃ pollution over a photochemically active region.     

基于AIS轨迹修复的船舶排放空间表征改进方法与应用

基于船舶自动识别系统(Automatic Identification System,AIS)数据表征船舶排放是目前船舶排放空间表征的主流方法,但AIS船舶轨迹点缺失会造成船舶排放量低估和船舶空间分布表征错误,进而影响船舶排放控制区的划分.为改进船舶排放空间表征,本研究以2013年广东省AIS船舶数据为例,采用基于时间和经纬度的三次样条方法对AIS船舶轨迹进行修复,结合动力法计算船舶排放,分析对比AIS轨迹修复前后船舶排放表征的差异,并利用空气质量模型和卫星观测评估AIS轨迹修复对船舶排放表征和广东沿海空气质量模拟的改进效果.结果表明:轨迹修复后广东省海域船舶轨迹点总数由4685773个增至5746664个,船舶NO_x排放量增加了0.6%.对于轨迹点与排放缺失集中的粤东海域,轨迹修复后船舶轨迹点数增加了88%,NO_x排放量在广东省船舶排放量的占比提升至22%,特别是在粤东重点修复海域NO_x排放量增加了2.7倍.原始轨迹在广东省海域较为稀疏,在粤东海域有明显轨迹缺失;轨迹修复后广东省海域船舶轨迹更为密集,粤东海域船舶轨迹得...     

全球二氧化碳浓度非均匀分布条件下碳排放与升温关系的统计分析

为定量评估全球二氧化碳浓度非均匀分布条件下碳排放与升温的关系,采用空间自相关分析与空间联立方程组模型,基于1度、2度与3度空间分辨率的全球二氧化碳浓度,碳排放与近地面气温等格点数据,揭示了2003—2015年全球二氧化碳浓度的空间分布聚集特征并估计了碳排放对升温的影响系数。结果发现：二氧化碳浓度在空间上表现为北半球高浓度值聚集与南半球低浓度值聚集的分布型。利用二氧化碳浓度非均匀分布的参数条件对碳排放与升温影响的估计结果表明,代入二氧化碳浓度非均匀分布这一参数会小幅拉低碳排放对升温影响的估计结果。研究表明,全球二氧化碳浓度非均匀分布是当前评估碳排放升温影响亟待引入的参数;同时由于估计结果的空间尺度效应的存在,相关参数的空间范围与分辨率的选择也需要关注。     

甲烷排放源逆向轨迹反演模式研究

基于逆向轨迹计算和单点浓度连续观测资料建立了一个甲烷排放源的反演模式 .经系统调试表明模式具有正确反映边界层物理过程的能力 .在理想条件下 ,模式相当准确地反演出 1 0 0km水平范围内设定的排放源和分布 .用 9天的实际甲烷浓度连续观测资料对北京地区的排放源情况进行个例计算 ,获得主要源块的排放率在0 0 0 66～ 0 0 2 6mg/ (m2 ·s)范围内 ,与区域内的重要排放源 (稻田 )的排放情况相一致 .反演所得源块与区域内的稻田分布亦有一定的空间对应关系     

Carbonyl emissions from heavy-duty diesel vehicle exhaust in China and the contribution to ozone formation potential

Fifteen heavy-duty diesel vehicles were tested on chassis dynamometer by using typical heavy duty driving cycle and fuel economy cycle. The air from the exhaust was sampled by 2,4- dinitrophenyhydrazine cartridge and 23 carbonyl compounds were analyzed by high performance liquid chromatography. The average emission factor of carbonyls was 97.2 mg/km, higher than that of light-duty diesel vehicles and gasoline-powered vehicles. Formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, acetone and propionaidehyde were the species with the highest emission factors. Main influencing factors for carbonyl emissions were vehicle type, average speed and regulated emission standard, and the impact of vehicle loading was not evident in this study. National emission of carbonyls from diesel vehicles exhaust was calculated for China, 2011, based on both vehicle miles traveled and fuel consumption. Carbonyl emission of diesel vehicle was estimated to be 45.8 Gg, and was comparable to gasolinepowered vehicles （58.4 Gg）. The emissions of formaldehyde, acetaldehyde and acetone were 12.6, 6.9, 3.8 Gg, respectively. The ozone formation potential of carbonyls from diesel vehicles exhaust was 537 mg O3/km, higher than 497 mg O3/km of none-methane hydrocarbons emitted from diesel vehicles.     

On the relationship between PM2.5 concentrations and regional-scale primary PM emissions for the United Kingdom: an issue of subsidiarity

A site-specific particulate matter PM source apportionment model has been used to estimate the contributions from local primary PM emissions, regional primary PM emissions and the regional background to PM_2.5 concentrations at 102 monitoring site locations and to the centres of 1 km × 1 km grid squares across the United Kingdom. The local primary PM contributions have then been compared with Europe-wide urban PM_2.5 increments estimated at 50 km × 50 km in European-scale integrated assessment models. It is concluded that Europe-wide PM increments used in policy analyses grossly underestimate urban PM concentrations obtained from the site-specific PM source apportionment model for the United Kingdom. Europe-wide urban PM_2.5 increments estimated at 5 km × 5 km scale are significantly improved, particularly for London, but underestimate those for smaller towns and cities by factors of 2–3. These underestimations have important air quality policy ramifications. Although environmental policies may well be best formulated at the European scale, the underpinning air quality modelling may be best carried out at the local scale.