The MRBT model: an analytical dispersion model in a finite mixing layer. Sensitivity analysis and validation against tracer measurements

This paper describes the characteristics of the MRBT model for studying the dispersion of a pollutant in the lower atmosphere under conditions of spatial homogeneity. The MRBT is shown to be a simple and efficient model based upon a non-stationary analytical solution of the atmospheric dispersion equation in a finite mixing layer. The results of the sensitivity analysis and of validation testing, made with field measurements of tracers carried out at the Nuclear Research Centre in Karlsruhe (Germany), demonstrate the superiority of MRBT with respect to traditional Gaussian models. The model is currently implemented in FORTRAN 77 for the personal computer and is suitable for an initial assessment of short-term atmospheric dispersion with limited computing resources.     

基于OTIS模型的巢湖十五里河源头段参数灵敏性分析

为探究城市地区渠道化源头河段水环境模型参数灵敏性,以巢湖流域十五里河源头段为对象,选择氯化钠(NaCl)为保守型示踪剂,采用瞬时投加方式,开展现场示踪试验. 在此基础上,利用OTIS模型(小河流水体溶质迁移扩散模型)模拟溶质(示踪剂)输移扩散规律,并以均方误差(RMSE)为目标函数,就±10%和±20%等参数多种变幅情景,采用扰动分析方法对A(河道过水断面面积)、A_s(暂态存储区断面面积)、α(交换系数)及D(扩散系数)等参数开展局部灵敏性分析. 结果表明:在十五里河源头段溶质迁移特征模拟方面,OTIS模型具有很好的适用性;尽管不同河段各参数的灵敏性排序存在一定的变化性,但总体趋势较为明显,表现为A＞α＞A_s＞D,这与欧美国家空间尺度相近的一些小河流水体基本相同;由于α和A_s的灵敏性超过D,表明在渠道化的城市小河流源头段,考虑暂态存储对于溶质输移扩散的影响十分必要. 研究结果进一步验证了扰动分析方法对于OTIS模型参数灵敏性分析的有效性.      

核电站气载放射性流出物环境辐射剂量计算

计算大亚湾核电站正常工况下气载放射性流出物对80km的大气环境防护距离内的公众所致辐射剂量。根据大亚湾核电站2001年气载放射性流出物排放量,逐时观测气象数据及相关参数,选用修正的高斯烟羽模型和美国核管会导则1.109的食物链模型,运用美国橡树岭国家实验室编制的AIRDOS-EPA程序,程序经修改后适合于中国核设施的计算。计算得到2001年大亚湾核电站气态放射性流出物对周边80km范围内的公众所致的年均集体剂量为4.722E-3人·希,最大个人有效剂量为1.362E-8希。结果表明,2001年大亚湾核电站正常工况下,气载放射性流出物对周围公众造成的剂量当量远低于国家标准,对周边地区居民健康几乎没有影响。     

ICP光谱分析环境样品光谱干扰

编制了专门用于按照国际法定计量组织文件规定作环境样品ICP光谱分析时校正光谱干扰的程序.校正程序共7套,分别用于各种光谱仪的带宽条件,按微机屏幕上中文人机对话,输入实验数据即可完成干扰校正.     

中国农业植被净初级生产力模拟(I)——模型的建立与灵敏度分析

以业已建成的稻麦作物净初级生产力模型为基本框架,建立了一个具有普适性的中国农业植被净初级生产力模型(CropC-)。CropC-的模拟对象为占我国农作物总播种面积2/3的水稻、小麦、玉米、棉花、油菜和大豆。该模型包括2个主要功能模块:光合作用和呼吸作用;土壤-作物系统氮素运移。前者综合考虑了环境因子和氮素的影响,后者包括了作物氮素吸收、土壤氮矿化和化肥氮释放。灵敏度分析表明,在输入参数变化±10%时,CropC-对6个主要输入参数响应的敏感性依次为温度>光合有效辐射>大气CO2浓度>土壤全氮含量>施氮量>降水。模型分析表明,气候变暖将降低作物净初级生产力。     

Uncertainty analysis of emission estimates in the RAINS integrated assessment model

Uncertainty is a critical issue for all models that attempt to quantify the necessary emission reductions that are required to meet environmental quality targets. This paper discusses a methodology specifically developed to analyse the uncertainties in the emission estimates with the regional air pollution information and simulation (RAINS) integrated assessment model, considering the uncertainties in the model parameters themselves. Overall, it was found that a typical range of uncertainties for modeled national emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and ammonia in Europe lies between 10 and 30%. In general, the uncertainties are strongly dependent on the potential for error compensation. This compensation potential is larger (and uncertainties are smaller) if calculated emissions are composed of a larger number of equal-sized source categories, where the errors in input parameters are not correlated with each other. Thus, estimates of the national total emissions are generally more certain than estimates of sectoral emissions. A sensitivity analysis with respect to the uncertainty in input parameters showed that the actual uncertainties are critically influenced by the specific situation (pollutant, year, country). However, the emission factor is an important contributor to the uncertainty in estimates of historical emissions, while uncertainty in the activity data dominates the future estimates.     

Computer simulation model for determining reclamation liability costs of the Ekati Diamond Mine™ in the Northwest Territories,Canada

Estimation of closure liabilities for financial reporting and security deposits in the mining industry is often based on past estimates or deterministic models. These methods are limited in their ability to account for the variability of contributing costing factors. In 2001, Komex International Ltd. developed a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) model to provide a best estimate for the reclamation liabilities of the Ekati Diamond Mine™ (BHP Billiton Diamonds Inc.). The model was built upon Decisioneering's^® Crystal Ball risk analysis and forecasting software to simulate the various facets of the mine's closure plans and reclamation activities. Reclamation activities included decommissioning, demolition, site remediation, reclamation and post closure monitoring for seven mine pits and related infrastructures over four time periods. The model predicted the median, 10th and 90th percentile costs and other statistical measures. A sensitivity analysis was also conducted to identify the most significant cost contributors. This type of model offers many advantages for companies in determining probable costs of future environmental activities. Through the identification of cost contributors, work scenarios, computer code and modeling software, a MCS model can simulate a wide range of probable costs and scenarios. Probabilistic models are more effective at incorporating risk and uncertainty in liability estimates than deterministic estimation tools that rely heavily on global contingencies to account for risk.     

On uncertainty and sensitivity of LCA-based priority setting

Life-cycle assessments are normally made without quantitative estimations of their uncertainty. More interest has been focused on sensitivity analysis. In ISO 14040, LCA standard and SETAC's ‘code of practice’ sensitivity and uncertainty analysis are recommended or even requested. In the EPS system, an analysis of significance and sensitivity has been carried out for several years. The article describes this procedure in ISO terms and generalises it for other types of life-cycle assessments.     

Prediction of the concentration of chlorophyll-α for Liuhai urban lakes in Beijing City

Introduction The eutrophication of fresh w ater has becom e a m ain w ater environm ental problem in the w orld. The m ain negative im pacts of fresh w ater eutrophication are w ater quality deterioration and the decrease of hydrophytes and aquatic specie…     

Spearman秩相关系数的批量计算

介绍了采用VisualFoxPro计算机语言对环境质量多时段监测数据计算Spearman秩相关系数的方法,用评价指标与时间序列间的相关性分析,并检验相关系数的显著性意义,进行环境质量变化趋势的评价;给出了实例和源程序。     

环境模型中敏感性分析方法评述

模型本身及其参数的不确定性使其模拟结果的可靠性备受争议,科学地认识模型的不确定性并对其进行定量的评价一直是环境模型研究的前沿,也是环境模型构建和应用过程中不可缺少的环节.通过敏感性分析,研究模型输入参数的变化对模型输出结果的影响程度,有助于了解并简化模型结构、提高参数率定效率、增进模型精度并增加模型应用的可靠性.本研究总结了敏感性分析在环境模型中的作用,并对常见的敏感性分析方法的原理、应用范围和优缺点进行了综述.最后,阐述了敏感性分析在环境模型模拟决策中应用的现状和未来研究方向.     

Capturing market impacts of farm level policies: a statistical extrapolation approach using biophysical characteristics and farm resources

Technical change at the farm level or changes in input prices often have an impact on the firm's supply function, which in turn affect their economic and environmental performance. These changes can take place in numerous ways. This paper presents a methodology that increases the consistency of supply responses across various sets of agricultural products and most representative farm typologies in Europe, with a market model based on a statistical response function approach. Since most farm simulation models are limited to a subset of regions and farm types, the linkage to an aggregated model requires a procedure for expanding these results to non-sample regions to achieve full regional coverage. This paper addresses theoretical aspects related to the consistency between micro and market level models. The proposed approach is applied using a consistent set of simulation results from farm models in seven European regions. Our results show a fairly stable behaviour of the farm models considered for the analysis and quite good fit of the estimated response surface. As results are still preliminary we critically reflect on the applicability of this method in addressing further needs on up-scaling of other economic as well as environmental indicators.     

SWAT模型在我国流域水环境模拟应用中的评估验证过程评价

模型评估验证是模型开发和应用过程中的重要环节,是管控模型应用于管理决策风险的重要手段.近年来,以SWAT模型为代表的流域水环境模型在我国流域水环境管理中得到广泛应用,但模型评估验证过程尚缺乏规范性指导.结合SWAT模型建模过程和模型评估验证的基本步骤,梳理总结SWAT模型评估验证过程的评价方法,针对确定研究或决策目标、获取输入数据、构建模型、模型率定验证、展示模型结果等5个阶段分别设计评价指标.筛选中国知网收录的2015—2017年发表的以SWAT模型为主题的428篇学术论文作为研究对象,评价现有研究的模型评估验证过程,分析我国SWAT模型评估验证的现状以及存在的问题和不足.评价结果表明,我国现有的SWAT模型应用研究总体比较重视模型评估验证过程,能够清晰定义研究区域、建模目标和期望产出,说明输入数据来源和质量以及模型概化、参数灵敏度分析、参数识别、不确定性分析的方法和结果,模型模拟效果较好.但是,针对SWAT模型评估验证方法的研究较少,在模型参数识别方面还存在参数选取未考虑研究区域特征、参数识别结果不合理等问题.建议在SWAT模型应用研究中关注参数灵敏度分析和参数识别,结合研究区域特征建立本地化应用数据库,加强模型评估验证方法研究.当模型应用于流域水环境管理决策时,应完整地开展模型评估验证,并分析模型不确定性对决策的影响.      

利用卫星资料估算我国西北地区直接辐射

在缺乏直接辐射、云量、日照时数等地面观测资料情况下,如何正确估算太阳直接辐射对太阳能合理开发利用有重要意义。利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、EOS-AURA卫星和FY-2C气象卫星反演资料,采用一个改进的宽带辐射传输模型对我国西北5个地面辐射站点2006年和2007年直射日曝辐量进行了估算。模型首先在Bird模型基础上对晴空条件下的太阳直接辐射进行了计算,然后结合FY-2C气象卫星总云量和云类反演数据,引入了一个线性方程,对实际天气状况下的直射日曝辐量进行了计算。结果表明:5个站点模拟的直射日曝辐量与实测值均存在较好一致性,评价效率系数NSE介于0.68~0.8,而对月均直射日曝辐量的模拟结果则显示模型在4-10月的估算精度要高于11-3月结果。     

基于PMF模型的土壤重金属源解析中变量敏感性研究

为探究应用受体模型对土壤污染物进行源解析,输入变量对模型运行及其结果的影响,以乐安河中上游地区土壤重金属调查数据作为典型受体模型（PMF模型）的输入数据集,并在PMF模型基础方案运行结果的基础上,采用局部敏感性分析法来探讨输入变量变化对模型诊断及源识别结果的影响.结果表明：6因子数情景是研究区土壤重金属源解析PMF模型最佳运行结果;土壤中Cu、Mo、Na₂O、As、Mn和Cd等参数属于敏感变量,这些变量均为每个因子中的主要载荷元素,即每个源的特征污染物;不同变量的敏感性有较大差异,Cu、Mo的总敏感性最大,分别为12.1,8.2,大于其他输入变量的敏感性.因此,在应用PMF模型进行源解析时,特征污染物是敏感性较强的变量,其数据质量的优劣是影响源解析结果可靠性的重要因素.     

砂质壤土中农药阿特拉津阻滞因子的研究

采用批量平衡法和流动平衡法对农药阿特拉津在砂质壤土中的吸附特性进行了研究 ,获得表征其在水 土间分配的吸附常数 ,计算出阿特拉津在该质地土壤中运移的阻滞因子 ;同时 ,由易混合置换实验中测定的阿特拉津出流动态 ,通过求解对流 弥散方程的反问题 ,获得了砂质壤土对该农药的吸附特性参数 .此外 ,还利用阿特拉津的若干物化参数 ,求取了它的阻滞因子 .研究表明 ,实验方法与理论计算的结果具有较好的一致性     

Soil temperature and moisture sensitivities of soil CO2 e ux before and after tillage in a wheat field of Loess Plateau, China

As a conventional farming practice, tillage has lasted for thousands of years in Loess Plateau, China. Although recent studies show that tillage is a prominent culprit to soil carbon loss in croplands, few studies have investigated the influences of tillage on the responses of soil CO2 e ux (SCE) to soil temperature and moisture. Using a multi-channel automated CO2 e ux chamber system, we measured SCE in situ continuously before and after the conventional tillage in a rain fed wheat field of Loess Plateau, China. The changes in soil temperature and moisture sensitivities of SCE, denoted by the Q10 value and linear regression slope respectively, were compared in the same range of soil temperature and moisture before and after the tillage. The results showed that, after the tillage, SCE increased by 1.2–2.2 times; the soil temperature sensitivity increased by 36.1%–37.5%; and the soil moisture sensitivity increased by 140%–166%. Thus, the tillage-induced increase in SCE might partially be attributed to the increases in temperature and moisture sensitivity of SCE.     

中国农业植被净初级生产力模拟(I)——模型的建立与灵敏度分析

以业已建成的稻麦作物净初级生产力模型为基本框架,建立了一个具有普适性的中国农业植被净初级生产力模型(CropC-)。CropC-的模拟对象为占我国农作物总播种面积2/3的水稻、小麦、玉米、棉花、油菜和大豆。该模型包括2个主要功能模块:光合作用和呼吸作用;土壤-作物系统氮素运移。前者综合考虑了环境因子和氮素的影响,后者包括了作物氮素吸收、土壤氮矿化和化肥氮释放。灵敏度分析表明,在输入参数变化±10%时,CropC-对6个主要输入参数响应的敏感性依次为温度>光合有效辐射>大气CO2浓度>土壤全氮含量>施氮量>降水。模型分析表明,气候变暖将降低作物净初级生产力。     

噪声污染的宏观经济分析

随着工农业生产、交通运输业和城乡建设的迅速发展,噪声的环境污染问题越来越突出。本文对噪声污染进行宏观经济分析,从环境经济学的角度,分析我国当前最大和最严重的噪声污染即工业和交通噪声污染所造成的经济损失,为取得低噪声所支付的环境保护费用,从而回答如何在现有的技术经济条件下,以最少的费用,取得最大噪声治理的社会、经济效益等问题。     

孔隙介质中生物膜空间分布及其对渗透性影响研究

孔隙介质地下水污染的生物修复过程中,微生物附着在介质颗粒表面,造成生物堵塞,影响生物修复的效率.对二维砂箱中的生物堵塞实验数据进行了统计分析,统计结果表明生物膜厚度在空间上服从正态分布.现有的定量刻画多孔介质生物膜与渗透率的模型一般均假设生物膜均质等厚地覆盖在颗粒表面,与实验结果不符.为探讨多孔介质中生物膜厚度变化对渗透率计算结果的影响,本文选择常用的Taylor模型中二大类六种模型进行比较分析研究.计算结果表明:生物膜厚度参数对模型计算结果影响显著,利用最小生物膜厚度计算得到的相对渗透率比利用最大生物膜厚度计算时的结果大1～4个数量级;不同模型对生物膜厚度参数的敏感性不同,其中Mualem模型最为敏感;Mualem Model利用平均值计算所得相对渗透率与实验测量结果相符,基于正态分布的生物膜厚度统计均值具有一定的代表性;Mualem模型更适用于计算孔隙介质中生物堵塞时对渗透率的影响.