A long-range dispersion model evaluation study with Chernobyl data

The Chernobyl accident outlined the need for improving the capability of the real-time estimate of long-range atmospheric dispersion and provided an opportunity to test numerical models against the radiological data collected over Europe. The APOLLO model, which became recently operational in the Accidental Release Impact Evaluation System (ARIES) at ENEA-DISP, has been tested based on meteorological and radiological data made available during and after the joint IAEA/CEC/WMO Atmospheric Transport Model Evaluation Study (ATMES). In the present paper a model evaluation and a sensitivity test with respect to the mixing depth and horizontal diffusion parameterizations are presented. The quantities involved in the validation are Cs-137 air concentrations paired in space and time, time-integrated concentrations and time of arrival of the cloud at each locality. The results show that the treatment of space and time variability of the mixing depth improves the model estimates, and that a linear trend in time of the horizontal dispersion coefficient gives better results than a square-root trend in terms of scattering between observed and computed values.     

A Lagrangian particle model of fumigation by breakdown of the nocturnal inversion

Several fumigation modelling studies are reviewed and an approach involving a coupled mesoscale grid point model and a Lagrangian particle dispersion model is chosen for further study. A number of particle model formulations are evaluated for their ability to maintain a well-mixed profile under steady-state convective conditions. The importance of using a formulation of the Langevin equation which is compatible with the specified turbulence parameterization is emphasised. Other considerations such as the form of the parameterizations and the magnitude of the timestep must also be taken into account.For prediction of hourly-averaged surface concentrations under fumigation conditions, it is found that a simple homogeneous turbulence formulation is equally effective as more sophisticated parameterizations involving inhomogeneity and skewness. Such a particle model, in conjunction with a mesoscale model for predicting the growth of the mixed layer, is able to reproduce well the results of the Deardorff and Willis (1982, Atmospheric Environment16, 1159–1170) laboratory experiments on fumigation.     

基于云模型的水体富营养化程度评价方法

水体富营养化程度评价对生态环境保护具有重要意义.针对水体富营养化程度评价不可避免的模糊性和随机性的特点,本文引入云模型的方法,对我国14个代表性湖库的富营养化程度进行评价.根据确定的评价标准,生成各评价因子隶属于各级别的综合云模型,并针对湖库实测资料,得到各评价物的确定度,由最大确定度决定湖库营养化级别.将该法所得结果与湖库实际水质状况、国内外应用较为广泛且简便的营养状态指数、评分公式法及模糊综合评价法所得结果进行对比,发现评价结果真实可靠,计算过程简洁明了,验证了该方法的可行性和有效性.     

A lagrangian one-layer model of long-range transport of SO2

The daily mean concentrations of SO₂ have been estimated using a simple trajectory model of long-range transport. Seasonal variations in the transformation rate of SO₂ to sulphate are assumed. The mixing height varied from day to day depending on the stability conditions. The dry deposition velocity above the ground varies according to the season, cloud cover and time of day, while a constant value is applied above the sea. Under present model assumptions the variation of pollutant concentration with time at the receptor point arises only due to variable meteorological conditions. During the test period measured concentrations were often higher than estimated. However, the order of magnitude of pollutant concentration was well predicted. In future work, input meteorological data should have a finer resolution. Further, better parameterizations of sulphur dioxide concentrations at the start points of trajectories and wet deposition should be employed.     

Numerical simulation of wet scavenging of air pollutants—I. Modeling of sequential precipitation rates at the ground

A one-dimensional Eulerian transport/transformation/removal model is developed to explain and predict existing field data and chemical compositions of precipitation. The PLUVIUS model is used as the framework for the proposed model with significant modifications. In Part I, cloud dynamics and microphysics, and water phases have been considered in the model. The equation of motion is solved to generate a vertical wind velocity profile for convective precipitation. The upwind scheme is used to handle the convective, non-linear transport problem.The modeling results of ground precipitation rates for a summer convective shower indicate that the precipitation rate is sensitive to the following precipitation parameters: autoconversion rate, cloud water concentration, relative humidity, entrainment rate, and the heights of cloud base and cloud top. The modeling results for pollutant rain concentrations will be presented in Part II of this series.     

基于博弈论的水体富营养化综合联系云评价模型

水体富营养化已严重威胁到水安全及生态文明健康,故准确评价水体富营养化程度具有十分重要的意义,但水体富营养化程度评价受诸多模糊、随机因素的影响,具有不确定性,且尚无统一标准,是一个复杂不确定性问题。为有效刻画水体富营养化评价指标有限区间内的随机模糊性与考虑评价指标本身重要性及内在信息,探讨了耦合博弈论的水体富营养化状态的综合联系云评价模型。实例应用与对比分析表明,基于综合联系云的评价模型应用于水体富营养化评价是有效可行的,并具有计算简便和能综合考虑指标间相互作用的优点,应用博弈论确定的组合权重也能充分发挥评价指标的重要性和实测指标包含的客观信息,较只采用单一类型权重的云模型和其他评价方法的评价效果更好,为水体富营养化评价提供了一种新的参考。     

二维时变的积云化学模式

将一组化学模式和二维时变云模式相结合,研究了随同云和雨的发展,云水和雨水中pH值和[SO_4~(2-)]的演变情况以及SO_2,NH_3,尘,O_3和H_2O_2等大气污染物的净化过程.     

Measurement and modelling of cloudwater deposition to a snow-covered forest canopy

Measurements are presented of the flux of cloud droplets, as a function of particle size to a forest canopy (Sitka spruce) before and after a light snowfall. The results are compared to the predivtions of the model of Slinn. Good agreement is found provided that appropriate values for the effective target diameter are chosen, both before and after the snowfall. It is shown that the snowfall results in a considerable reduction in the flux of cloud water to the forest canopy (by a factor of about 2). The snow reduces the surface roughness of the canopy but the most important effect is that it increases the effective target diameter for the droplets impacting on the tree. This effect may considerably reduce the deposition of phytotoxic chemical species to forests at high altitude where snow cover and low cloud are common in winter.     

An Eulerian model for a slowly moving cold frontal system with sulfur chemistry: Model description and application

Simple sulfur chemistry is incorporated with a diagnostic cloud module to furnish an Eulerian model for slowly moving cold frontal systems. Chemical species include sulfur dioxide and sulfate in air, cloud and rain water. The diagnostic method to determine cloud water content is rather crude at present, but the primary results, including a three-dimensionmal test, seem reasonable. Two-dimensional applications of the model are made for a precipitation event presented in a frontal process in March 1988, Guagdong Province, southern China. The cross-section is selected to be representative of major industrial areas of Guangdong. The analysis of the modeling results displays the effects of the lifting and shearing of the wind field onto the distribution patterns of pollutant distributions. Clouds are shown widely polluted with the lifting and entrainment of the polluted air from lower layers, so that acid rain was generated in the precipitation area following the front, covering the most part of Guangdong Province. The pllutants are transported northerly with the front surface are generally transported southerly, but in-cloud pollutants are transported northerly with a wider extension. The results qualitatively show that the transport of acidic precursors in such a weather system is of medium scale and the acidic deposition in Guangdong might be contributed mainly by the sources of Guangdong Province itself.     

祁连山空中云水资源开发利用效益预测与评估

利用社会效益、经济效益和生态效益3 个方面25 项指标, 建立了空中云水资源开发利用综 合效益的评价体系。同时对祁连山区人工增雨对径流的影响作了预估, 在此基础上, 对祁连山云水 资源开发利用后山前走廊各流域水资源状况及社会经济状况进行了合理的预测。最后, 选用其中 11 项指标, 并运用层次分析法对祁连山空中云水资源开发利用效益进行了评价。结果表明: 祁连山 空中云水资源开发利用对山前走廊的社会、经济、生态等效益均显著增加, 祁连山区通过人工增雨, 降水增加10%时, 河西地区综合效益将提高5.3%, 降水增加20%时, 综合效益提高12.5%。     

辽宁云水资源分布特征及开发潜力分析

我国淡水资源短缺,人口增长、经济发展与水资源短缺的矛盾日益加剧,已严重影响着我国部分地区经济和社会持续健康发展。人工增雨、开发空中云水资源是缓解水资源短缺的一个重要途径。文章利用辽宁省气象台站网的常规探空、云和降水的观测资料,计算、分析了辽宁云水资源的分布状况及开发潜力,结果显示全省云水资源总量年均为4.83×10¹¹m³,具有较多的作业机会和较大的人工增雨潜力,开发云水资源大有可为。     

对流云云中酸化的数值模拟——Ⅰ.模式建立和初步结果

发展了一维半、时变、微物理过程参数化处理的对流云云雨酸化的物理-化学模式,较为全面地考虑了污染气体向液水的质量传输过程以及液相化学反应动力学过程.通过初步模拟发现,垂直上升气流会很快把低层高浓度SO_τ气体输送到云的上层,从而使酸化过程得到加强;云滴与雨滴微物理结构的不同,对污染气体的吸收影响很大,小的云滴比雨滴更易酸化,云、雨水对污染气体的吸收和云、雨水的比含水量有关.因对流云云内外交换强烈,液水吸收掉的污染气体量相对于环境场而言是很小的.     

对流云云中酸化的数值模拟——Ⅰ.模式建立和初步结果

发展了一维半、时变、微物理过程参数化处理的对流云云雨酸化的物理-化学模式,较为全面地考虑了污染气体向液水的质量传输过程以及液相化学反应动力学过程.通过初步模拟发现,垂直上升气流会很快把低层高浓度SO_τ气体输送到云的上层,从而使酸化过程得到加强;云滴与雨滴微物理结构的不同,对污染气体的吸收影响很大,小的云滴比雨滴更易酸化,云、雨水对污染气体的吸收和云、雨水的比含水量有关.因对流云云内外交换强烈,液水吸收掉的污染气体量相对于环境场而言是很小的.     

衡山酸性云水对森林冠层的作用

利用现场同步采样的方式采集并分析了衡山山顶针叶、阔叶林冠层云水和纯云水样品。比较表明这三类样品的化学组成有很大差别。与云水比较,针叶林冠层云水酸度增加,说明针叶林冠层可放出酸性物质,增加云水的酸度;而阔叶林冠层云水则相反,对云水中的酸有中和作用。在酸性云水作用下,森林冠层被淋失一定的营养物质,这将对植物的生长发育构成危害。同时,研究还表明植物等天然源排放出的有机酸可对云水体系构成一定影响。      

基于联系云的地下水水质可拓评价模型

地下水水质评价受诸多不确定因素的影响,评价指标具有模糊性、随机性和离散性特征.为真实反映指标的分布特征,提高地下水水质评价的合理性与可靠性,在此将可拓学与联系云理论耦合,提出能够描述评价指标在分类等级间转换态势的联系云可拓模型,即基于指标分类标准确定联系云数字特征,生成有限区间内的联系云与构建联系云可拓矩阵,实现统一定量描述地下水水质评价指标的确定和不确定性,然后结合权重,分析待评价物元与地下水水质等级的联系,综合确定待评物元的水质等级,并给出评价结果的可信程度.实例应用及与投影寻踪和模糊物元耦合方法结果的对比表明,本文模型评价结果与投影寻踪模糊物元方法的结果基本吻合,且基于联系云可拓模型评价地下水水质等级置信因子均小于0.01,更有效可行,并克服了可拓方法不能反映评价指标模糊性特征的缺陷.     

华南背景山区云中草酸的形成机制及影响因素

草酸(C₂)是大气颗粒物中有机物的重要组成部分,现有研究推测草酸主要来源于云中液相反应,然而,关于其云中形成机制的研究较少. 本文系统分析对比了华南背景山区的云水和云间隙颗粒物中二羧酸类物质,包括直链饱和二羧酸(C₂~C₉)、支链饱和二羧酸(iC₄~iC₆)、不饱和二羧酸〔马来酸(M)、富马酸(F)、柠康酸(mM)〕以及多官能团羧酸〔苹果酸(hC₄)、丙酮酸(Pyr)和乙醛酸(ωC₂)〕的浓度分布. 利用随机森林和多元线性回归方法进一步定量评估了草酸前体物、温度及云水性质(云水中液态水含量、pH、化学组成)对云水中草酸形成的影响. 结果表明:①云水和云间隙颗粒物中草酸的平均浓度分别为431 μg/L和27.28 ng/m3,分别占直链饱和二羧酸浓度的78.9%和70.0%,占水溶性有机碳浓度的2.4%和1.1%. ②云水中C₂/总二羧酸类物质(浓度比)与二羧酸类物质浓度比〔如C₂/(C₃~C₉)、C₂/(iC₄~iC₆)、C₂/(hC₄+Pyr+ωC₂)和C₂/(M+F+mM)〕均呈显著正相关(R2为0.47~0.76, P均小于0.01),表明C₃~C₉、iC₄~iC₆、hC₄+Pyr+ωC₂和M+F+mM可能是云水中草酸形成的重要前体物. ③前体物对云水中草酸浓度变化贡献最大,贡献率为79%,其中hC₄+Pyr+ωC₂是最重要的前体物;其次是云水性质,贡献率为20%;温度的贡献率为1%. 研究显示,云中过程是草酸形成的重要途径,其形成过程受前体物、云水性质和温度等因素的影响.      

柳州大气中硫酸雾的测定和大气中不同价态的硫对降水总硫及酸度的贡献

大气中含硫化合物进入降水有三种途径:①自身起凝结核作用形成云雾水;②降水对云下二氧化硫的冲刷;③降水对云下硫酸雾、硫酸盐气溶胶的冲刷。云下硫酸雾、硫酸盐、二氧化硫是大气中硫的三种含量高而且稳定存在的化学状态,在柳州地区它们对降水酸度贡献的估算值分别为52.4%、3,6%、18.7%,对降水中总硫的贡献分别为10.2%、15.1%、14.9%。柳州地区云雾水对降水总硫的贡献约30%左右。      

东北吉林地区云水化学航测研究

利用飞机航测于2007年夏季在东北吉林地区采集了24个云水样品,对云水的pH值与主要无机水溶性离子成分进行分析.结果表明,该地区云水呈酸性,平均pH值为4.93;主要离子成分依次为SO42- 109.7 meq/L, NH4+ 74.8 meq/L, Ca2+ 71.9 meq/L,和NO3- 51.4 meq/L; SO42-/NO3-的当量比为2.1,与龙凤山降水样品比值相当.云水离子浓度主要受天气形势及气团输送特征影响.集合后推气流轨迹分析表明离子浓度最高的云水样品主要受到华北地区污染输送的影响.对比同步采集的高空云水与地面降水样品,发现云下冲刷过程可对降水酸度起到一定的中和作用.     

基于理想点-可拓云模型的煤炭资源可持续力评价

论文针对煤炭资源可持续力评价中多指标信息不相容的问题以及评价等级划分的随机性和模糊性,综合运用可拓云理论与理想点组合赋权法,建立煤炭资源可持续力评价的理想点-可拓云模型。该模型根据可拓云理论构造了物元可拓云模型,通过关联函数确定了各等级云关联度,并与各指标理想点组合权重相结合,从而得到可持续力综合云关联度,确定了煤炭资源可持续力评价等级。将该模型应用于河北省2015年煤炭资源可持续力评价,评价等级特征值为3.069,可知评价等级最接近Ⅲ级,通过云发生器计算各等级概率,结果表明,2015年河北省煤炭资源可持续力处于中等水平,与实地调研结果基本相符。该方法科学合理、结果可靠,为资源可持续力评价提供了一种新的参考方法。     

厦门春季低空大气酸沉降垂直分布的研究

1993年3月28日～4月7日,在厦门后坑村,对不同高度的低空(1000m以下)大气中气态污染物?云水和雨水进行了垂直分布观测?结果表明:厦门后坑村春季大气中的SO₂,NO_x,O₃的日均值分别是0.069,0.015,0.060mg/m3,基本符合国家大气质量一级标准,而H₂O₂的日均值为1.70μg/m3,是地面大气中H₂O₂浓度的5.3倍,说明其大气氧化活性较强;空中雨水大部分酸化,而云水全部酸化,且NO-3浓度较高,说明春季酸雨污染较严重。