Exploration and discovery of Australia's copper,nickel, lead and zinc resources 1976–2005

Examination of copper, nickel, lead and zinc (base metals) exploration expenditure and discovery in Australia over the period 1976–2005 reveals some significant trends. Australia's base metal resource inventory grew substantially as a consequence of successful exploration over the period, both through addition of resources at known deposits and new discoveries, notably a small number of very large deposits that underpin the resource base. In 2005, Australia had the world's largest economic demonstrated resources (EDR) of nickel, lead and zinc, and the second largest EDR of copper. Growth in nickel resources has been especially strong owing to discovery of large laterite resources in the late 1990s. Resource life, in average terms based on current EDR and production, is approximately 30 years for lead and zinc, 40 years for nickel sulphide (120 years for all nickel EDR) and 50 years for copper. Despite this success, major increases in production over the period (copper, nickel and zinc output increasing 3–4 fold, lead output doubling) and a fall in discovery rates during much of the 1990s means that resource life for lead and zinc is lower and nickel sulphide comparable now to that in 1976; only the resource life of copper has grown substantially over the period. Current published ore reserves are sufficient for at least 15 years operations at current production levels, but only a small number of the largest deposits currently being mined are likely to still be in production in 20 years. However, several mines have substantial inferred resources that may allow production beyond current mine reserves and there is a substantial number of undeveloped deposits that may provide the foundation for extended or new mining operations. The discovery record is strongly cyclical with resource growth for all the base metals punctuated by the discovery of giant (world-class) deposits each decade: these underpin current and future production. Recent higher metal prices and renewed interest in base metals, especially nickel, has reversed a 10 year decline in base metal exploration attended by reduced rates of discovery and resulted in record expenditure, new nickel, copper and zinc discoveries, and increased resources at a number of existing deposits, notably the Olympic Dam copper–uranium–gold deposit. With the exception of the Prominent Hill copper–gold and West Musgrave nickel–copper deposits, most of the recent discoveries, especially zinc (-lead) deposits, are of small tonnage (some of high grade). Nevertheless, these new discoveries have helped stimulate further exploration and also highlight the potential for further discoveries in little-explored provinces, especially those under regolith and shallow sedimentary cover.     

Copper: after the boom

Copper demand is expected to turn down in the latter part of 1989 and then dip further in 1990. The slump in demand is expected to be modest, however, much less severe than the post oil shock recessions of the mid-1970s and early 1980s. By 1991 a healthy growth is expected to resume. However, major expansions to production capacity are in track and excessive production is expected to keep the copper market in surplus for the next five years. Thus, prices are expected to decline sharply and remain at quite low levels through the mid-1990s.     

The Evolution and Role of Non-OPEC Production in the International Oil Market

In 1982, for the first time since OPEC was founded in 1961, its production was surpassed by the non-OPEC countries in the world excluding the centrally planned economies. In that year, for the world as a whole, OPEC provided 35% of the oil consumed. The decline was brought about by a decrease in consumption and by a marked increase in production from non-OPEC sources. It is expected that non-OPEC producers will have the capacity to meet more than half of the world's oil requirements until the early 1990s, at which time OPEC producers will again assume the role of providing over 50% of the world's oil.     

The USSR, China, India and the world metals industry to 2010

Remarkable changes are occurring within the economies of the USSR, China and India that are influencing mineral industry activities. These three countries account for a major share of world minerals production and consumption. Their domestic reforms may ultimately have a serious impact on the global mining industry. This paper examines the present status of the Soviet, Chinese and Indian mineral industries, and forecasts conditions to 2010. Long-term characteristics analysed include industrial production, intensity of use, consumption, mine and plant expansion and trade policy. Six metals are highlighted in the study – aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, steel and zinc.     

Modelling future copper ore grade decline based on a detailed assessment of copper resources and mining

The concept of “peak oil” has been explored and debated extensively within the literature. However there has been comparatively little research examining the concept of “peak minerals”, particularly in-depth analyses for individual metals. This paper presents scenarios for mined copper production based upon a detailed assessment of global copper resources and historic mine production. Scenarios for production from major copper deposit types and from individual countries or regions were developed using the Geologic Resources Supply-Demand Model (GeRS-DeMo). These scenarios were extended using cumulative grade-tonnage data, derived from our resource database, to produce estimates of potential rates of copper ore grade decline.The scenarios indicate that there are sufficient identified copper resources to grow mined copper production for at least the next twenty years. The future rate of ore grade decline may be less than has historically been the case, as mined grades are approaching the average resource grade and there is still significant copper endowment in high grade ore bodies. Despite increasing demand for copper as the developing world experiences economic growth, the economic and environmental impacts associated with increased production rates and declining ore grades (particularly those relating to energy consumption, water consumption and greenhouse gas emissions) will present barriers to the continued expansion of the industry. For these reasons peak mined copper production may well be realised during this century.     

Dynamics of state mining enterprises during the 1980s and the outlook for the 1990s

This paper examines the evolution of the control by the state of mining and smelting from 1975 to 1989. In 1950, there was little state-owned mining capacity outside the centrally planned economies. A wave of nationalizations of mine assets swept over the developing countries in the late 1960s and early 1970s. State control continued to rise, in developing countries as well as in the developed market economy countries, until the mid-1980s, when the trend reversed. At present some 20% of Western world mineral production is state controlled. The level of control is highest for those minerals mined mainly in the developing countries, and lowest for those minerals mined mainly in the developed market economy countries. The current trend is toward privatization of state-owned mining enterprises in developed countries and it is expected that as the 1990s progress, privatization of such enterprises will also begin to take place in developing countries.     

Mine size optimization using marginal analysis

In this study, a model to estimate the optimum mine size is developed. The model is developed on the basis of marginal analysis. The model solves for the production rate at which the present value of marginal costs equals the present value of marginal revenues—the rate that microeconomic theory shows will maximize the net present value of production from the mine.In addition, the article discusses the effects on the optimum production rate of: the physical characteristics of the deposit, economic factors, and financial factors. It has been found that, not surprisingly, as the reserve tonnage increases, the optimum mine size increases. Also, the optimum production rate increases as the ore grade increases. A direct relationship has been found between the mineral price and the optimum production rate. The optimum mine size is found to be inversely related to the expected growth rate of mineral price, while it is directly related to the expected growth rate of mining costs. A concave relationship has been found between the cost of capital and the optimum mine size.     

The International Lead and Zinc Study Group and the metals market

The International Lead and Zinc Study Group was founded by the United Nations in 1959. There are 32 member countries which together cover over 90% of world production and consumption of total lead and zinc. The Study Group, inter alia provides opportunities for consultation on lead and zinc, provides information regarding supply and demand, collects and disseminates statistics, studies different aspects of the world situation in lead and zinc and considers possible solutions to any special problems. This paper presents excerpts of the activities of the International Lead and Zinc Study Group in each of the above areas.     

Water Consumption in the Production of Ethanol and Petroleum Gasoline

We assessed current water consumption during liquid fuel production, evaluating major steps of fuel lifecycle for five fuel pathways: bioethanol from corn, bioethanol from cellulosic feedstocks, gasoline from U.S. conventional crude obtained from onshore wells, gasoline from Saudi Arabian crude, and gasoline from Canadian oil sands. Our analysis revealed that the amount of irrigation water used to grow biofuel feedstocks varies significantly from one region to another and that water consumption for biofuel production varies with processing technology. In oil exploration and production, water consumption depends on the source and location of crude, the recovery technology, and the amount of produced water re-injected for oil recovery. Our results also indicate that crop irrigation is the most important factor determining water consumption in the production of corn ethanol. Nearly 70% of U.S. corn used for ethanol is produced in regions where 10–17 liters of water are consumed to produce one liter of ethanol. Ethanol production plants are less water intensive and there is a downward trend in water consumption. Water requirements for switchgrass ethanol production vary from 1.9 to 9.8 liters for each liter of ethanol produced. We found that water is consumed at a rate of 2.8–6.6 liters for each liter of gasoline produced for more than 90% of crude oil obtained from conventional onshore sources in the U.S. and more than half of crude oil imported from Saudi Arabia. For more than 55% of crude oil from Canadian oil sands, about 5.2 liters of water are consumed for each liter of gasoline produced. Our analysis highlighted the vital importance of water management during the feedstock production and conversion stage of the fuel lifecycle.     

China

For the first time since the mid-1960s, China became a net oil importer in 1993. That the country will remain a net oil importer is inevitable and probably irreversible for the foreseeable future. In the period to 2000, its crude oil production is projected to increase only 2% annually, while demand for refined oil products is expected to grow at 6.6% per annum. As a result, China's net oil imports are expected to reach 1.3 million barrels per day in 2000, accounting for almost one-third of its projected oil consumption. Most of the imports will come from the Middle East, and China's dependence on Middle Eastern oil is expected to increase significantly in the future .     

Lead reduction and redistribution in the forest floor in New Hampshire northern hardwoods

Because of the affinity of organic matter for lead, atmospheric loadings of this pollutant have been strongly retained in the forest floor. With the regulation of Pb emissions, loadings have decreased. We measured changes in Pb in forest floor horizons at a variety of northern hardwood sites in New Hampshire from the late 1970s to the 1990s. In all seven of the sites in which horizons were distinguished within the forest floor, Pb was found to be declining in the upper (Oie) horizon, but not in the underlying Oa and A horizons. At the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF), this loss from the Oie resulted in a 36% loss of Pb from the forest floor as a whole between 1976 and 1997 (p < 0.001). In contrast, in six stands in the Bartlett Experimental Forest (BEF), losses of Pb averaging >50% from the Oi and Oe horizons (p = 0.01) between 1979 and 1994 were compensated by gains in the Oa and A horizons. Similarly, at seven additional stands in the White Mountain National Forest, changes in the forest floor as a whole from 1980 to 1995 were not statistically significant (redistribution within the forest floor was not evaluated at these sites). Lead concentrations were highest in the Oe or Oie in the 1970s, but were highest in the Oa horizon in the 1990s. There was no significant pattern of Pb loss or retention as a function of stand age across all the sites.     

Evaluation of water treatment sludge for ameliorating acid mine waste

This study investigated the liming effect of water treatment sludge on acid mine spoils. The study was conducted with sludge from a water purification plant along the Vaal River catchments in South Africa. The optimum application rate for liming acid spoils and the speed and depth with which the sludge reacted with the mine waste were investigated. Chemical analysis indicated that the sludge is suitable as a liming agent because of its alkaline pH (8.08), high bicarbonate concentration (183.03 mg L(-1)), and low salinity (electrical conductivity = 76 mS m(-1)). The high cation exchange capacity of 15.47 cmol(c) kg(-1) and elevated nitrate concentration (73.16 mg L(-1)) also increase its value as an ameliorative material. The soluble concentrations for manganese, aluminum, lead, and selenium were high at a pH of 5 although only selenium (0.83 mg L(-1)) warranted some concern. According to experimental results, the application of 10 Mg ha(-1) of sludge to acid gold tailings increased the leach water pH from 4.5 to more than 7.5 and also increased the medium pH from 2.4 to 7.5. The addition of sludge further reduced the solubility of iron, manganese, copper, and zinc in the ameliorated gold tailings, but increased the electrical conductivity. The liming tempo was highest in the coal discard profile that had a coarse particle size distribution and took the longest to move through the gold tailings that had a fine particle size distribution. Results from this study indicate that the water treatment sludge investigated is suitable as a liming agent for rehabilitation of acid mine waste.     

某区域内矿区土壤重金属污染与生态风险评价

探究区域内矿区土壤重金属变化并对其进行污染评价,旨在为该区域环境保护及污染治理提供一定的理论依据,以期实现矿山地质环境保护与矿产资源开发并行的矿业绿色发展。以铅、锌、镉、砷含量为评价指标,结合《土壤环境质量标准》(GB 15618—2018),采用重金属单因子污染指数法与内梅罗综合污染指数法进行重金属污染评价,并对该区域矿区潜在生态风险作出评定。结果表明,A矿区土壤各重金属含量的变异系数为149.05%~211.42%,B矿区土壤各重金属含量变异系数为60.88%~118.58%;A矿区土壤重金属均出现超标现象,其中铅、锌和镉含量超标较为严重,超标率在72%以上,而砷含量超标现象则相对较轻,超标率为36.36%;B矿区土壤铅和锌含量均未出现超标,超标率为0,而砷和镉含量则出现不同程度的超标,其中砷含量超标率为92.31%,镉含量超标率为65.38%;两个矿区土壤各重金属含量均超背景值的现象,超背景值比例为42.31%~100.00%。A矿区土壤以铅、锌和镉污染为主,而B矿区土壤中砷和镉的污染较为严重。两个矿区土壤重金属综合污染指数均属重度污染,A矿区生态风险综合指数为很强生态风险危害,而B矿区为中等生态风险危害。     

Government fiscal strategy for mining to 2000

World Bank studies predict little or no change in mineral demand in the 1990s, and also an extended period, in real terms, of low mineral prices. In such a climate the fiscal strategy of government needs to be one which emphasizes revenue sources which are independent of mineral prices. In the 1970s, rising prices made fiscal regimes which capture economic rents attractive. In the 1990s, royalties and other duties which are dependent on the level of production and would also take advantage of any short boom in mineral prices would seem to be the best fiscal regime for a government to follow.     

Metals recycling in the United States

Twenty-two metals for which secondary recovery is important, in terms of quantity and/or value, were compared and ranked for rate and efficiency of recycling, and availability of recycled metal. In general, their recycling rates trended upward over the period 1970–1993. Iron, aluminum, copper, gold, platinum, and lead accounted for most of the value of all secondary metal produced, while iron and steel dominated in terms of quantity produced and exported. The factors most influential on recycling rates are profitability, public support, organization of infrastructure, sortability, legislative support, and scrap purity. The share of supply accounted for by secondary metals is expected to surpass that of primary metals sometime in the next decade.     

Dynamic material flow analysis of zinc resources in China

Zinc is one of the most widely applied nonferrous metals in China. Study on the applications and recurrent situation of zinc resources is of great strategic importance for the sustainable development of China's economy. In this paper, a dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) method has been adopted to analyze quantificationally zinc resources in China, as well as to analyze and predict the quantity of zinc product scrap and their recycling situation. The weighted average method was applied to calculate average lifetimes of six major zinc products in China. The average lifetimes of battery, zinc oxide, zinc die-casting alloys, zinc material products, galvanized zinc and brass are 0.17, 5.3, 11.1, 12, 21 and 30 years, respectively. Assuming the lifetime of zinc product group obeys the Weibull distribution and the consumption of zinc products varies linearly with time, the future consumption and scrap generation of zinc products will increase continuously. It is expected that they would increase from 49% to 76% during 2004–2020, respectively. Assuming the recycling rate remains unchanged with time, the zinc old scrap index, both the theoretical and actual values, would continue increasing in China. The values are expected to reach 0.402 and 0.076 by 2020, respectively. Therefore, the regeneration resource of depreciated zinc is actually insufficient in China. According to the scenario analysis, the actual value of old scrap indexes is positively correlated with the recycling rate of zinc products. Because galvanized products are the largest consumption area of zinc products in China, the influence of their recycling rate on old scrap index is obviously larger than other zinc products. Through the analysis, this paper suggests that the increase of the recycling rate of zinc products could not only improve to a certain degree China's relative shortage of zinc resources, but greatly relive the supply pressure of zinc in the world.     

Pricing behaviour and market power in North American non-ferrous metal industries

The paper considers the degree to which declining market power explains modifications in pricing behaviour observed since the late 1970s in the North American aluminium, copper, lead and zinc industries. More precisely, it relates those changes in pricing policies to the price elasticity of demand facing the dominant strategic group in each industry, the cost elasticity of supply and to the management's ability to coordinate or internalize conduct decisions. The results suggest that the firms in the copper and lead industries do not hold as a group any form of market power. In the case of the aluminum industry, a notable increase in the price elasticity of demand since the end of the 1970s, a sustained decrease in the concentration ratio and a rigid production process are weakening the presence of market power in that industry. The results are inconclusive in the case of the zinc industry since the determinants of market power move in opposite directions.     

Structural Change in the Metals Industry: A Quantitative Assessment

This study examines the major changes that have occurred in the metals industry over the past 35 years. A quantitative assessment of the impact of these changes on consumption and production is provided. The study finds that the slowing down in industrial activity in the metals-using sector, which began in the early 1970s, is the major factor behind the weak growth in metals consumption. The structural changes which have affected demand are minor in comparison. On the supply side, the dominant factor behind relatively high production is the overhang of mine capacity that had been built in aicipation of much higher metals consumption. Again, the structural factors are relatively unimportant.     

The Role of Periphyton in Mediating the Effects of Pollution in a Stream Ecosystem

The effects of pollutants on primary producers ramify through ecosystems because primary producers provide food and structure for higher trophic levels and they mediate the biogeochemical cycling of nutrients and contaminants. Periphyton (attached algae) were studied as part of a long-term biological monitoring program designed to guide remediation efforts by the Department of Energy’s Y-12 National Security Complex on East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC) in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. High concentrations of nutrients entering EFPC were responsible for elevated periphyton production and placed the stream in a state of eutrophy. High rates of primary production at upstream locations in EFPC were associated with alterations in both invertebrate and fish communities. Grazers represented >50% of the biomass of invertebrates and fish near the Y-12 Complex but <10% at downstream and reference sites. An index of epilithic periphyton production accounted for 95% of the site-to-site variation in biomass of grazing fish. Analyses of heavy metals in EFPC periphyton showed that concentrations of zinc, cadmium, copper and nickel in periphyton decreased exponentially with distance downstream from Y-12. Zinc uptake by periphyton was estimated to reduce the concentration of this metal in stream water ~60% over a 5-km reach of EFPC. Management options for mitigating eutrophy in EFPC include additional reductions in nutrient inputs and/or allowing streamside trees to grow and shade the stream. However, reducing periphyton growth may lead to greater downstream transport of contaminants while simultaneously causing higher concentrations of mercury and PCBs in fish at upstream sites.     

World coal outlook: 1990s

In the 1990s for the newly industrializing nations of the Pacific Rim and for the OECD countries as well, the demand for energy is expected to increase at a rate in excess of that of the increase in GNP. The demand for coal is likely to increase as well but probably to a lesser degree than GNP. This is because coal can expect increasing competition not from oil, but from natural gas. For a whole host of reasons, economic as well as environmental, gas could be the preferred fuel of the 1990s. Nevertheless, coal prices can be expected to increase but low cost production due to come on stream shortly, is likely to keep those increases modest.