Investigating the Uncertainties in the Simple Mass Balance Equation for Acidity Critical Loads for Terrestrial Ecosystems in the United Kingdom

The Simple Mass Balance (SMB)equation has been developed and used as one ofthe principal methods for calculating criticalloads of acidity for forest ecosystems. Criticalloads have formed the basis for informing policyrelated to the control and abatement of emissionsof acidifying pollutants. The SMB equationrelies on a variety of assumptions and dataderived from a variety of sources. Each of thesecomponent constituents has a potential source oferror depending on the method(s) used for theirderivation and the value(s) assigned. The resultis the possibility of generating a range ofcritical load values for a single ecosystem. This paper summarises the SMB equation, examinesthe uncertainties in deriving input values andreviews other works on the key assumptions.     

Using Multiple Chemical Criteria for Critical Loads of Acidity in Maritime Regions

Critical loads have become a well-establishedpart of the work programme of the UnitedNations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) Conventionon Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP). Thelinking of ecosystem response to deposition level is thecentral principal of the critical loads approach. Foreach ecosystem, a biological indicator is chosen, asuitable chemical criterion selected and a criticalchemical limit assigned. The Bc:Al ratio is the mostwidely used chemical criterion for setting criticalloads. However, critical loads based on this criterionare very sensitive to marine deposition. In regions whichreceive high depositions of marine-derived base cations,such as the Republic of Ireland (ROI) and the UnitedKingdom (UK), critical loads based on the Bc:Al criterionwill inevitably be high. Therefore, it is proposed thatcritical loads are estimated using multiple chemicalcriteria with appropriate critical limits to protect thechosen biological indicators. The range of publishedchemical criteria have been applied to the ROI and theUK. The chemical criterion corresponding to the mostsensitive critical load have been mapped and thecontribution of each to the final maps investigated. Thesimulations indicate that the most sensitive criteria forsetting critical loads are based on specifying critical Hor Al concentrations. However, the choice of critical limits andmodel parameters will ultimately effect the criticalloads. Therefore, it is important that appropriate criticallimits are chosen to protect the biological indicator andreceptor ecosystem from long-term damage.     

An Analysis of the Structure of the Simple Mass Balance Equation: Implications for Testing National Critical Loads Maps

The critical loads concept is used by the UN-ECEConvention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution(CLRTAP) for setting pollution reduction targets.Increasing numbers of countries are adopting the SimpleMass Balance equation (SMB) to calculate critical loads ofacidifying S and N for forest soils. The equation is madeup of a series of mass balances each of which is used tocalculate a leaching flux. The assumptions in the SMBequation were investigated by testing its ability topredict current sulphur load and by comparing each of thecalculated leaching fluxes to measured rates. It was notpossible to predict current sulphur load at our sites usingthe SMB equation. The leaching tests demonstrated that,primarily due to its steady state assumptions, the SMBequation generates critical loads that are theoretical longterm estimates of risk, and are untestable. Thesimplifying assumptions sometimes lead to illogicalresults. Some of these can be improved by adding a final,simple but dynamic, calculation step to determine theexpected time until effects are observed. Theacceptability of combining annual average data, which bestapproximates steady state, with a biological indicator isquestionable. It is not possible to test critical loadscalculated using the SMB equation when applied with all ofits assumptions but it is possible to test its fundamentalapproach using non steady state data.     

The Link Between the Exceedance of Acidity Critical Loads for Freshwaters,Current Chemical Status and Biological Damage: A Re-Interpretation

Critical loads have for several years been employed bypolicymakers to aid in the development of strategies for aciddeposition abatement. They provide an effects-based approachwhereby an acid deposition flux greater than the critical load(known as critical load exceedance) implies that long-termharmful effects on a selected target organism will occur.Implicit in this approach are two assumptions: first, theexceedance of a critical load will harm the target organism,and second, the severity of biological impact is related to themagnitude of exceedance. However, static models give noindication of when the predicted damage might occur. One suchmodel, the Steady-State Water Chemistry (SSWC) model, employs aseries of empirical relationships to derive the pre-industrial,baseline leaching rate of base cations from measured waterchemistry using the so-called `F-factor'. The SSWC model setsthe critical load relative to pre-industrial base cationleaching (a permanent buffer of acid deposition) and a selectedacid neutralizing capacity (ANC) value which corresponds with aknown likelihood of damage to a biological target organism.Here we interpret the meaning of critical load exceedance as aprediction of steady-state ANC, and explore the relationshipbetween exceedance of the critical load and current chemistry. We demonstrate that a critical loadexceedance with the SSWC model does not necessarily indicatethat the critical chemical threshold (zero ANC) has alreadybeen crossed, and there may be no correlation betweenexceedance and biological status. A reformulation of the SSWCmodel is proposed which provides a direct link between currentdeposition and current chemical conditions, and is thereforemore likely to indicate current biological damage. Thereformulation illustrates the discrepancy between currentchemical status and that predicted by the SSWC model atsteady-state, which is a function of the `F-factor'.     

Critical Loads of Acidity for Forest Soils: Tentative Modifications

We reviewed the current methods for calculatingcritical loads of acidity for forest soils. The consequencesof four sets of assumptions concerning the soil modelstructure, parameter values and the critical loads criterionwere explored by comparing the values of the averageaccumulated exceedance (AAE) calculated for Finland withdeposition values for the year 1995. The AAE index is given inthe unit of deposition and is a measure of how far a region isfrom being protected in terms of fulfilling a certaincriterion, taking into account the size of the ecosystem areas.Using a critical limit for the molar ratio of theconcentrations of base cations to aluminium in soil solutiongave the lowest average accumulated exceedance. Assumingorgano-aluminium complexes and leaching of organic anions gaveAAE = 4 eq ha^-1 a^-1, which was close to the valueobtained with the standard approach used in Finland, assuminggibbsite equilibrium and no leaching of organic anions,yielding AAE = 5 eq ha^-1 a^-1. With a critical basesaturation limit, instead of the concentrations criterion, theAAE index was 17 eq ha^-1 a^-1. The highest averageaccumulated exceedance (AAE = 25 eq ha^-1 a^-1),corresponding to the lowest critical load, was obtained whenthe effects-based criterion (critical concentration or criticalbase saturation) was substituted with one restricting thedeterioration of the neutralizing capacity of the soil, ANC _le(crit) = 0. These tests illustrate the variabilityof the critical load values for acidity that can be introducedby changing the criterion or by varying the calculation method,without, however, representing the extreme values of criticalloads that could be derived.     

A Novel Method for Mapping Critical Loads Across a River Network: Application to the River Dart,Southwest England

To date, estimates of freshwater critical loads have beenbased on a single sample site within a given area, in theUK the `most sensitive' surface water in each 10 km gridsquare. The critical loads obtained are thus highlydependent on the sites chosen, and at a relatively coarsespatial resolution. To produce a higher resolutioncritical load assessment, the PEARLS (Prediction ofAcidification and Recovery on a Landscape Scale)procedure has been used to estimate critical loads acrossa large (248 km²), partially acid-sensitivecatchment in Southwest England. PEARLS utilises availablesoils and land-use databases, and sampled streamchemistry data, to derive characteristic runoffcompositions for a set of landscape types. Mixingequations are then used to calculate runoff chemistry,and subsequently critical loads, throughout the streamnetwork. Results show major spatial variability, withcritical loads lowest in streams draining peat-moorlandheadwaters, and generally increasing downstream asagricultural land contributes an increasing proportion ofrunoff. The 5th percentile freshwater critical loadfor the catchment is estimated at 0.29 keq H⁺ ha^-1yr^-1,and critical loads are exceeded for around 40% of totalstream length. The PEARLS methodology provides a novelopportunity to assess the spatial variability infreshwater critical loads, and to provide estimates ofexceedance at whole catchment scale. It has potentialapplication in the assessment of surface watersensitivity to acidification across wider areas in the UKand elsewhere.     

The Role of Mineral Weathering Rate Determinations in Generating Uncertainties in the Calculation of Critical Loads of Acidity and their Exceedance

Current legislation within Europe aimed at limitingecosystem damage resulting from inputs of atmosphericpollution is based on the critical load concept. Mineralweathering rates are central to the calculation ofcritical loads (acceptable levels) of acid deposition.The authors have undertaken a number of studies whichillustrate the complications and limitations inherent inpredicting mineral weathering rates and the implicationswhich these have for critical loads calculations andmapping. Calculated weathering rates and critical loadsfor two acid-sensitive parent materials (greywackes andgranites) are presented and are used to illustrate theimpact that uncertainty can have on critical loadexceedances. The results have obvious implications forportraying the uncertainties of critical loads to policy makers.