适应气候变化是当务之急

地球气候变化既有自然因素又有人为因素,全球变暖主要原因是人类活动温室气体排放过度。因此,在应对气候变化问题上,人们对减排温室气体高度重视是理所当然,而长期以来对“适应气候变化”却有所忽视。其实,对发展中国家《适应气候变化》才是当务之急。文章在前文“发展低碳经济,应对全球变暖”减排二氧化碳温室气体的基础上,论述适应气候变化的迫切性和基本途径。     

适应气候变化是当务之急

地球气候变化既有自然因素又有人为因素,全球变暖主要原因是人类活动温室气体排放过度.因此,在应对气候变化问题上,人们对减排温室气体高度重视是理所当然,而长期以来对＂适应气候变化＂却有所忽视.其实,对发展中国家〈适应气候变化〉才是当务之急.文章在前文＂发展低碳经济,应对全球变暖＂减排二氧化碳温室气体的基础上,论述适应气候变化的迫切性和基本途径.     

适应气候变化是当务之急

地球气候变化既有自然因素又有人为因素,全球变暖主要原因是人类活动温室气体排放过度。因此,在应对气候变化问题上,人们对减排温室气高度重视是理所当然,而长期以来对＂适应气候变化＂却有所忽视。其实,对发展中国家《适应气候变化》才是当务之急。本文在＂发展低碳经济,应对全球变暖＂减排二氧化碳温室气体的基础上,论述适应气候变化的迫切性和基本途径。     

人类干预下的气候资源演化

从温室气体排放与全球气候变化、土地利用与区域气候变化、城市化与城市气候变化、重大工程建设对气候的影响几个方面论述了人类干预下的气候资源变化。     

保护气候是全人类的责任——访科学技术部全球环境办公室副主任吕学都

气候变暖正在日益引起全世界的广泛关注。2月2日，政府间气候变化专业委员会（IPCC）所作的《第四次气候变化评估报告》（简称IPCC第四次评估报告）明确指出，全球气候变暖有超过90％的可能性与人类活动产生的温室气体排放有关。到21世纪末，在多种温室气体排放情景下，预估全球地表平均增暖1．8℃至4．0℃，海平面相应上升18到59厘米。[编者按]     

IPCC第一工作组评估报告分析及建议

2021年8月6日,政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第一工作组第六次评估报告(AR6)发布,针对气候系统变化科学领域最新研究进展和成果进行了全面、系统的评估. AR6以更强有力的证据进一步确定了近百年全球气候变暖的客观事实,人类活动对气候变暖影响的信号更为清晰. 本文总结了历次IPCC评估报告,并从气候现状、未来可能的气候状态、风险评估和区域适应气候变化信息以及减缓未来气候变化4个方面对AR6进行系统梳理. 结果表明:人类活动产生的温室气体对大气、海洋、冰冻圈和生物圈的影响前所未有,引发了全球许多地区的极端天气和气候极端事件. 未来若温室气体排放没有显著减少,到2100年全球地表温度将至少升高2.1 ℃;如若人类影响得到有效改善,在最低排放情景(SSP1-1.9)中,2055年将变为负碳,到21世纪末气温开始再次下降. 减少CH₄等其他污染物可以为全球气候治理争取时间,并改善空气质量. 建议中国应对气候变化应加强基础科学研究,聚焦模式开发和应用及与各工作组之间的衔接,加快短寿命气候强迫(SLCFs)与温室气体协同控制研究,强化应对气候变化政策措施的科技支撑等.      

赢余:低碳经济的成长

越来越多的科学家发出了全球气候变暖的警告，IPCC的第四次评估报告进一步证实，气候变化确实正在发生，人类必须控制温室气体排放以适应这一不争的事实。现在，关注的焦点已经转向如何应对，以及如何降低所需要付出的代价。     

海洋温室气体研究进展

温室气体是大气中能吸收地面反射的长波辐射、并重新发射辐射的一些气体。它们会使地球表面变暖，导致“温室效应”。典型温室气体包括二氧化碳(CO₂)、甲烷(CH₄)、氧化亚氮(N₂O)、挥发性卤代烃(VHCs)、水蒸汽(H₂O)、臭氧(O₃)等。有些温室气体受人类活动影响显著，主要包括《联合国气候变化框架公约的京都议定书》规定的六种温室气体：CO₂、CH₄、N₂O、氢氟碳化物(HFCs)、全氟化碳(PFCs)和六氟化硫(SF₆)，需要对其采取减量排放措施，以期能够尽快使温室气体排放达到峰值，并在本世纪下半叶实现温室气体净零排放，达到《巴黎协定》所要求的全球平均气温较工业化前水平升高不超过2℃的目标，降低气候变化所带来的生态风险以及给人类带来的生存危机。海洋作为地球上最大的生态系统，对温室气体的源汇格局有重要的调节作用，深刻影响着全球气候变化。对海洋温室气体的研究是全球温室气体研究极为重要的方面。     

生物炭添加对土壤温室气体排放影响的长短期效应研究进展

人类活动引起的大气温室气体浓度增加是气候变暖的主要原因,全球变暖已经成为了当今人类社会所面临的严峻挑战,应对气候变暖的关键是减少温室气体排放和增加生态系统碳汇,由于生物炭特有的理化和生物学特性,将其施入土壤被认为是一种有前景的减排增汇措施.因此进行生物炭对土壤温室气体排放的影响研究对于减缓温室效应和实现“碳中和”具有重要意义.通过综述生物炭对土壤温室气体排放影响的长短期效应及其影响机制,发现生物炭添加对土壤温室气体排放的影响因生物炭原料类型、热解温度、添加量、土壤和植被类型的不同而不同.此外,因老化时间、老化方式和培养方法的不同,老化生物炭对土壤温室气体的减排效应可能增强或减弱甚至消失.同时,在总结现有研究不足的基础上,对未来生物炭影响土壤温室气体排放研究的方向和重点进行了分析和展望,提出了今后应加强CO₂、 N₂O和CH₄排放影响的同步研究、减排与固碳效应的同步研究、不同老化方式生物炭和不同培养方法的联合研究和利用¹³C和¹⁵N示踪技术从过程层次上揭示影响机制.     

水坝对全球变暖的影响惊人

一项最新的研究揭示了水坝在气候变暖中的巨大作用：随着水流的忽高忽低,水库是如何产生惊人的温室气体的？华盛顿州立大学的研究人员首次通过量化湖泊、水库和河流释放的温室气体总量,分析了水位降低与温室气体排放之间的关系。研究结果表明,温室气体排放量会随水位的下降而急剧增加,水坝和水库对全球变暖的贡献被低估了,水坝和水库是新的全球变暖的罪魁祸首。     

Adaptation and mitigation strategies in agriculture: an analysis of potential synergies

As climate changes due to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, agriculture will be one of the key human activities affected. Projections show that while overall global food production in the coming decades may keep pace with the food requirements of a growing world population, climate change might worsen existing regional disparities because it will reduce crop yields mostly in lands located at lower latitudes where many developing countries are situated. Strategies to enhance local adaptation capacity are therefore needed to minimize climatic impacts and to maintain regional stability of food production. At the same time, agriculture as a sector offers several opportunities to mitigate the portion of global greenhouse gas emissions that are directly dependent upon land use, land-use change, and land-management techniques. This paper reviews issues of agriculture and climate change, with special attention to adaptation and mitigation. Specifically, as adaptation and mitigation strategies in agriculture are implemented to alleviate the potential negative effects of climate change, key synergies need to be identified, as mitigation practices may compete with modifications to local agricultural practices aimed at maintaining production and income. Under future climate and socio-economic pressures, land managers and farmers will be faced with challenges in regard to selecting those mitigation and adaptation strategies that together meet food, fiber and climate policy requirements.     

土地利用/覆被变化研究的几个问题

近年来土地利用/覆被变化研究取得了许多进展,理论和研究方法有很大发展。其主要趋向是,重视从动态过程角度进行土地利用/覆被变化的分类;强调将土地利用/覆被变化的驱动力区分为自然驱动力和社会经济驱动力,后者则受到研究者越来越大的重视;强调土地利用/覆被变化的模型必须有相应理论的支持,而且所建模型应能动态地模拟不同土地利用之间的竞争;此外,强调在土地利用与土地覆被分类、土地利用/覆被变化的驱动力研究及影响分析中,要重视空间尺度和时间尺度问题。     

我国发展低碳农业的主要措施研究

在全球气候变暖和能源危机的背景下,农业是温室气体主要排放源之一,低碳农业作为应对气候变化的农业行动,越来越受到人们的重视。低碳农业的目标是减缓温室气体,实现高效率、低能耗、低排放、高碳汇的高效农业。在推动我国低碳农业发展的措施方面,总结起来主要包括减少碳排放、增加碳汇和采用其他相应的技术措施相结合。也就是通过一系列相应的技术措施和基础设施建设,减少温室气体总量排放的同时,增加耕地、草地和林地吸收二氧化碳的量,从而实现低碳农业的可持续发展。     

Climate Modelling,Uncertainty and Responses to Predictions of Change

Article 4.1(F) of the Framework Convention on Climate Change commits all parties to take climate change considerations into account, to the extent feasible, in relevant social, economic and environmental policies and actions and to employ methods such as impact assessments to minimize adverse effects of climate change. This could be achieved by,inter alia, incorporating climate change risk assessment into development planning processes i.e. relating climatic change to issues of habitability and sustainability. Adaptation is an ubiquitous and beneficial natural and human strategy. Future adaptation (or, better, adjustment) to climate is inevitable at the least to decrease the vulnerability to current climatic impacts. The urgent issue is the mismatch between the predictions ofglobal climatic change and the need for information onlocal to regional change in order to develop adaptation strategies. Mitigation efforts are essential since the more successful mitigation activities are, the less need there will be for adaptation responses. Moreover, mitigation responses can be global (e.g. a uniform percentage reduction in greenhouse gas emissions) while adaptation responses will be local to regional in character and therefore depend upon confident predictions of regional climatic change. The dilemma facing policymakers is that scientists have considerable confidence in likely global climatic changes but virtually zero confidence in regional changes. Mitigation and adaptation strategies relevant to climatic change can most usefully be developed in the context of sound understanding of climate, especially the near-surface continental climate, permitting discussion of societally relevant issues. Unfortunately, climate models cannot yet deliver this type of regionally and locationally specific prediction and some aspects of current research even seem to indicate increased uncertainty. These topics are explored in this paper using the specific example of the prediction of land-surface climate changes.     

Active Amplification of the Terrestrial Albedo to Mitigate Climate Change: An Exploratory Study

To date, international efforts to mitigate climate change have focussed on reducing emissions of greenhouse gases in the energy, transportation and agriculture sectors, and on sequestering atmospheric carbon dioxide in forests. Here, the potential to complement these efforts by actions to enhance the reflectance of solar insolation by the human settlement and grassland components of the Earth's terrestrial surface is explored. Preliminary estimates derived using a static two dimensional radiative transfer model indicate that such efforts could amplify the overall planetary albedo enough to offset the current global annual average level of radiative forcing caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases by as much as 30% or 0.76 Wm^{− 2}. Terrestrial albedo amplification may thus extend, by about 25 years, the time available to advance the development and use of low-emission energy conversion technologies which ultimately remain essential to mitigate long-term climate change. While a scoping analysis indicates the technical feasibility of sufficiently enhancing human settlement and grassland albedos to levels needed to achieve reductions in radiative forcing projected here, additional study is required on two fronts. Firstly, the modelled radiative forcing reductions are static estimates. As they would generate climate feedbacks, more detailed dynamic climate modelling would be needed to confirm the stationary value of the radiative forcing reduction that would result from land surface albedo amplification. Secondly, land surface albedo amplification schemes may have important economic and environmental impacts. Accurate ex ante impact assessments would be required to validate global implementation of related measures as a viable mitigation strategy.     

Analysing countries’ contribution to climate change: scientific and policy-related choices

This paper evaluates the influence of different policy-related and scientific choices on the calculated regional contributions to global climate change (the “Brazilian Proposal”). Policy-related choices include the time period of emissions, the mix of greenhouse gases and different indicators of climate change impacts. The scientific choices include historical emissions and model representations of the climate system. We generated and compared results of several simple climate models. We find that the relative contributions of different nations to global climate change—from emissions of greenhouse gases alone—are quite robust, despite the varying model complexity and differences in calculated absolute changes. For the default calculations, the average calculated contributions to the global mean surface temperature increase in 2000 are about 40% from OECD, 14% from Eastern Europe and Former Soviet Union, 24% from Asia and 22% from Africa and Latin America. Policy-related choices, such as time period of emissions, climate change indicator and gas mix generally have larger influence on the results than scientific choices. More specifically, choosing a later attribution start date (1990 instead of 1890) for historical emissions, decreases the contributions of regions that started emitting early, such as the OECD countries by 6 percentage points, whereas it increases the contribution of late emitters such as Asia by 8 percentage points. However, only including the fossil CO₂ emissions instead of the emissions of all Kyoto gases (fossil and land use change), increases the OECD contributions by 21 percentage points and decreases the contribution of Asia by 14 percentage points.     

2000~2020年西南地区植被NDVI对气候变化和人类活动响应特征

研究植被变化及其对气候变化和人类活动的响应机制,对区域生态保护和植被恢复具有重要现实意义.利用MODIS NDVI数据、基于站点的气象数据和土地利用数据,结合Theil-Sen Median趋势分析、Mann-Kendall显著性分析、残差分析、偏相关分析和复相关分析等方法,基于不同地貌单元,分析2000～2020年中国西南地区植被覆盖时空演变特征及其对气候和土地利用变化的响应特征.结果表明,2000～2020年西南地区植被NDVI整体呈波动上升趋势,上升斜率在空间上呈东南高和西北低的分异格局.气候变化和人类活动对西南地区植被NDVI上升均以促进作用为主,且对广西丘陵植被生长的促进作用强于其他地貌单元.2000～2020年间西南地区植被NDVI与气温和降水呈正相关,与相对湿度和日照时数呈负相关,且温度是影响西南地区植被NDVI变化的气候主导因子.城市扩张在一定程度上减少了区域植被覆盖,但得益于适宜的气候条件以及林业生态工程的实施,西南地区整体植被覆盖以上升为主.研究结果可为西南地区生态保护及经济可持续发展提供科学依据.     

关于高等学校引入低碳教育的思考

全球气候变化问题日益受到全人类的关注,国际社会加快了温室气体减排,发展低碳经济的步伐。解决气候变暖问题,发展低碳经济,实现可持续发展,必须通过低碳教育培养全民的低碳意识。大学生是传播低碳理念和实践低碳发展的生力军,提高大学生的低碳意识有利于提高全民族的低碳意识。为此,高校必然成为进行低碳教育的重要阵地。高等学校应在课程设置、学生生活实践以及学校管理等诸多方面贯彻低碳教育的理念。