On stochastic differential equations and equilibrium distribution: a conditional moment approach

In the recent past there have been several attempts to obtain the equilibrium distribution of multiple populations and their moments in the context of some biological or ecological processes (e.g., Matis and Kiffe in Biometrics 52:155, 1996; Matis and Kiffe in Environ Ecol Stat 9:237, 2002; Renshaw in J Math Appl Med Biol, 15:1, 1998). In particular, the method of cumulant truncation (Matis and Kiffe in Biometrics 52:155, 1996) is a pioneering work in this field. However it requires solving a large number of cumulant functions even in the case of two simultaneous differential equations. Besides the solutions are approximate and depend on the precision of the software. Renshaw (Math Biosci 168:57, 2000) provided a nice extension of the univariate truncated saddle point procedure to multivariate scenarios. But this approach involves a multivariate Newton-Raphson type iterative algorithm whose performance and convergence are critically dependent on the choice of the initial values. In the present paper we propose a new and simple approach to obtain the equilibrium distribution of populations and their conditional moments in a system of differential equations of any dimension. Our proposed method, which is a natural extension of the classical variational matrix approach, has several advantages which are discussed in detail in the paper; among other things it includes the derivation of additional conditions which can be interpreted as environmental surrogates.     

我国中亚热带人工林水热通量对干旱差异响应的模拟研究

季节性干旱现象在我国中亚热带地区时有发生,为了研究该区域大气-生态系统之间的相互作用关系及其碳水收支状况,2002年起在江西省千烟洲(26.7°N,115.1°E)人工林生态系统建立了通量观测塔。2003年7月该人工林生态系统遭遇了历史上少有的高温少雨天气,本研究应用基于生理生态学过程的EALCO(Ecological Assimilation of Land and Climate Observation)模型及2003和2004年通量观测数据对该生态系统的水热通量进行了模拟,同时分析了干旱胁迫对它们产生的影响。结果显示,模型能够很好的模拟该生态系统的能量通量的日变化,净辐射、显热和潜热通量模拟值与实测值相关系数的平方(R2)及标准差分别为0.99和8.05 W.m-2;0.81和41.02 W.m-2;0.90和31.49 W.m-2,模型可以解释87%的日蒸散量的变化。从模拟结果看,2003年7月下旬(发生较严重干旱胁迫)较2004年同期(干旱程度轻)相比,冠层及土壤水势下降约2倍,植物蒸腾的日变化形式改变,根系吸水滞后冠层蒸腾的时间缩短约半小时,冠层导度下降40%～60%。模拟与观测结果均表明,200...     

我国中亚热带人工林水热通量对干旱差异响应的模拟研究

季节性干旱现象在我国中亚热带地区时有发生,为了研究该区域大气-生态系统之间的相互作用关系及其碳水收支状况,2002年起在江西省千烟洲（26.7°N,115.1°E）人工林生态系统建立了通量观测塔。2003年7月该人工林生态系统遭遇了历史上少有的高温少雨天气,本研究应用基于生理生态学过程的EALCO（Ecological Assimilation of Land and Climate Observation）模型及2003和2004年通量观测数据对该生态系统的水热通量进行了模拟,同时分析了干旱胁迫对它们产生的影响。结果显示,模型能够很好的模拟该生态系统的能量通量的日变化,净辐射、显热和潜热通量模拟值与实测值相关系数的平方（R2）及标准差分别为0.99和8.05 W.m-2;0.81和41.02 W.m-2;0.90和31.49 W.m-2,模型可以解释87%的日蒸散量的变化。从模拟结果看,2003年7月下旬（发生较严重干旱胁迫）较2004年同期（干旱程度轻）相比,冠层及土壤水势下降约2倍,植物蒸腾的日变化形式改变,根系吸水滞后冠层蒸腾的时间缩短约半小时,冠层导度下降40%～60%。模拟与观测结果均表明,2003年7月下旬每天正午的波文比大都介于1～2.2,而2004年同期正午的波文比则介于0.2～0.6。EALCO模型通过Ball模型将植物碳水过程耦合在一起,从而可以很好的模拟植物的气孔行为,进而准确的模拟植物水热过程对干旱的响应。土壤水分匮乏对冠层导度的限制是2003年干旱期间冠层潜热通量模拟值下降的根本原因。     

On the intrinsic structure of differential equation models of ecosystems

Some intrinsic properties of differential equation models of ecosystems are formulated. The properties, which are long-termed, are classified into fundamental, stability, and sensitivity substructures. An aspect of the ecological term “resilient” — asymptotic stability uniformly for all small parameter variations — is introduced in a mathematical setting. In the sensitivity substructure, bounded sensitivity and continuity of sensitivity with respect to solutions are recognized as intrinsic properties. Illustrations of these two properties are given.     

Balancing making a difference with making a living in the conservation sector

Goals play important roles in people's lives because they focus attention, mobilize effort, and sustain motivation. Understanding conservationists’ satisfaction with goal progress may provide insights into real-world environmental trends and flag risks to their well-being and motivation. We asked 2694 conservationists working globally how satisfied they were with progress toward goals important to them. We then explored how this satisfaction varied among groups, including demographic and occupational. Finally, we looked at respondents' experiences associated with goal-progress satisfaction. Many (94.0%) indicated that making a meaningful contribution to conservation was an important goal for them, and over half were satisfied or very satisfied in this area (52.5%). However, respondents were generally dissatisfied with progress on collective conservation goals (e.g., stopping species loss). Some groups were more likely to report dissatisfaction than others. For instance, those in conservation for longer tended to be less satisfied with collective goal progress (log odds –0.21, 95% credibility interval [CI] –0.32 to –0.10), but practitioners reported greater satisfaction (log odds 0.38, 95% CI 0.15–0.60). Likewise, those who were more optimistic in life (log odds 0.24, 95% CI 0.17–0.32), male (log odds 0.25, 95% CI 0.10–0.41), and working in conservation practice (log odds 0.25, 95% CI 0.08–0.43) reported greater satisfaction with individual goal progress. Free-text responses suggested widespread dissatisfaction with livelihood goals, particularly related to job security and adequate compensation. Although contributing to conservation appeared to be a source of satisfaction, slow goal progress in other areas––particularly around making a living––looked to be a source of distress and demotivation. Employers, funders, professional societies, and others should consider ways to help those in the sector make a difference while making a satisfactory living by, for example, prioritizing conservationists′ well-being when allocating funding. This support could include avoiding exploitative practices, fostering supportive work environments, and celebrating positive outcomes.     

Coupling a land use model and an ecosystem model for a crop-pasture zone

This paper describes the development of a land use model coupling ecosystem processes. For a given land use pattern in a region, a built-in regional ecosystem model (TESim) simulates leaf physiology of plants, carbon and nitrogen dynamics, and hydrological processes including runoff generation and run-on re-absorption, as well as runoff-induced soil erosion and carbon and nitrogen loss from ecosystems. The simulation results for a certain period from 1976 to 1999 were then used to support land use decisions and to assess the impacts of land use changes on environment. In the coupling model, the land use type for a land unit was determined by optimization of a weighted suitability derived from expert knowledge about the ecosystem state and site conditions. The model was applied to the temperate crop-pasture band in northern China (CCPB) to analyze the interactions between land use and major ecosystem processes and functions and to indicate the added value of the feedbacks by comparing simulations with and without the coupling and feedbacks between land use module and ecosystem processes. The results indicated that the current land use in CCPB is neither economical nor ecologically judicious. The scenario with feedbacks increased NPP by 46.78 g C m⁻² a⁻¹, or 32.23% of the scenario without feedbacks, also decreased soil erosion by 0.65 kg m⁻² a⁻¹, or 23.13%. Without altering the regional land use structure (proportions of each land use type). The system developed in this study potentially benefits both land managers and researchers.     

On the risk of extinction of a wild plant species through spillover of a biological control agent: Analysis of an ecosystem compartment model

Invasive plant species can be controlled by introducing natural enemies (insect herbivores) from their native range. However, such introduction entails the risk that the introduced herbivores attack indigenous plant species in the area of introduction. Here, we study the effect of spillover of a herbivore from a managed ecosystem compartment (agriculture) to a natural compartment (non-managed) and vice versa. In the natural compartment, an indigenous plant species is attacked by the introduced herbivores, whereas another indigenous plant species, which competes with the first, is not attacked. The combination of competition and herbivory may result in extinction of the attacked wild plant species. Using a modelling approach, we determine model parameters that characterize the risk of extinction for a wild plant species. Risk factors include: (1) a high attack rate of the herbivores on the wild non-target species, (2) niche overlap expressed as strong competition between the attacked non-target species and its competitor(s), and (3) factors favouring large spillover from the managed ecosystem compartment to the natural compartment; these include (3a) a high dispersal ability, and (3b) a moderate attack rate of the introduced herbivore on the target species, enabling large resident populations of the insect herbivore in the managed compartment. The analysis thus indicates that a high attack rate on the target species, which is a selection criterion for biocontrol agents with respect to their effectiveness, also mitigates risks resulting from spillover and non-target effects. While total eradication of an invasive plant species is not possible in the one-compartment-one-plant-one-herbivore system, natural enemy spillover from a natural to a managed compartment can make the invasive weed go extinct.     

On temperature and water limitation of net ecosystem productivity: Implementation in the C-Fix model

Monitoring, understanding and modelling carbon emission and fixation fluxes are key actions to guide climate change stakeholders in the application of mitigation strategies. In this study, we use the remote sensing model C-Fix at the local stand scale to improve the integration of algorithms for water and temperature limitation. These new algorithms are applied to estimate net ecosystem productivity in a fully water limited mode.     

Sex-specific maternal investment in pronghorn,and the question of a limit on differential provisioning in ungulates

Summary Prediction that mothers will invest more in individual sons than daughters in polygynous mammals has been confirmed in several species. However, among polygynous ungulates, differential investment occurs in some species, but not in others. Because ungulates have postnatal growth rates among the highest in mammals, we hypothesized that level of maternal investment limits the ability of offspring of one sex to evolve faster growth rates, even when intrasexual selection might favor faster growth. We predicted that comparative rate of maternal investment would explain the distribution of differential investment among ungulates, and examined our data on pronghorn (Antilocapra americana), which show the highest-known rate of maternal investment among ungulates. Data on birth weights, suckling rates, ages-pecific frequency of maternal termination of suckling bouts, age at weaning, and rate of rejected suckle attempts showed either no sex differences or else a slight excess investment in daughters. In concordance with these data, female fawns spent more energy in activity than did male fawns. Among ungulates for which data are available, the best predictor of differential investment is not degree of adult sexual dimorphism; it is comparative rate of maternal investment.     

A little movement orientated to the geomagnetic field makes a big difference in strong flows

Whilst a range of animals have been shown to respond behaviourally to components of the Earth’s magnetic field, evidence of the value of this sensory perception for small animals advected by strong flows (wind/ocean currents) is equivocal. We added geomagnetic directional swimming behaviour for North Atlantic loggerhead turtle hatchlings (Caretta caretta) into a high-resolution (1/4°) global general circulation ocean model to simulate 2,925-year-long hatchling trajectories comprising 355,875 locations. A little directional swimming (1–3 h per day) had a major impact on trajectories; simulated hatchlings travelled further south into warmer water. As a result, thermal elevation of hatchling metabolic rates was estimated to be between 63.3 and 114.5% after 220 days. We show that even small animals in strong flows can benefit from geomagnetic orientation and thus the potential implications of directional swimming for other taxa may be broad.     

The relationship between allele frequency and tidal height in a mussel hybrid zone: a test of the differential settlement hypothesis

The blue mussels Mytilus edulis L. and M. galloprovincialis Lmk. hybridize in western Europe. Within hybrid populations nuclear alleles specific to M. galloprovincialis increase in frequency with age and size. This relationship changes with tidal height; alleles from M. galloprovincialis occur more frequently high in the intertidal zone, while M. edulis alleles predominate in the low intertidal zone. We tested the hypotheses that larvae with M. galloprovincialis alleles tend to settle higher in the intertidal zone, or that mussels redistribute themselves with respect to tidal height after initial larval settlement. We sampled recently metamorphosed mussels every 2 weeks in a hybrid mussel population at Whitsand Bay in southwest England throughout the summer of 1996. We observed four cohorts of newly settled mussels. There was no evidence of differential settlement of mussels with different genotypes in connection with tidal height, or into shaded versus unshaded microsites. Therefore, we rejected the preferential settlement hypothesis. There was substantial movement of juvenile mussels in the first 4 weeks following initial settlement, but this “secondary settlement” did not result in genetic differentiation with respect to tidal height. Further, significant differences in allele frequencies were found between primary and secondary spat. This allele frequency change was in the opposite direction of that seen in the adult population, suggesting newly settled larvae may be experiencing different selective pressures than adults. We propose that the genetic structure of hybrid mussel populations with respect to tidal height is the consequence of differences in selection intensity. Received: 30 April 1999 / Accepted: 5 May 2000     

On interacting bee/mite populations: a stochastic model with analysis using cumulant truncation

Parasitism by the Varroa mite has had recent drastic impact on both managed and feral bee colonies. This paper proposes a stochastic population dynamics model for interacting African bee colony and Varroa mite populations. Cumulant truncation procedures are used to obtain approximate transient cumulant functions, unconstrained by the usual assumption of bivariate Normality, for an assumed large-scale model. The apparent size of the variance and skewness functions suggest the importance of the proposed truncation procedure which retains some higher-order cumulants, but determining the accuracy of the approximations is problematical. A smaller-scale bee/Varroa mite model is hence proposed and investigated. The accuracy for the means is exceptional, for the second-order cumulants is moderate, and for some third-order cumulants is poor. Notwithstanding the poor accuracy of a skewness approximation, the saddlepoint approximations for the marginal transient population size distributions are excellent. The cumulant truncation methodology is very general, and research is continuing in its application to this new class of host-parasite models.     

Evaluating predictive errors of a complex environmental model using a general linear model and least square means

A general linear model (GLM) was used to evaluate the deviation of predicted values from expected values for a complex environmental model. For this demonstration, we used the default level interface of the regional mercury cycling model (R-MCM) to simulate epilimnetic total mercury concentrations in Vermont and New Hampshire lakes based on data gathered through the EPAs Regional Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (REMAP). The response variable for the GLM was defined as R-MCMs predictive error: the difference between observed mercury concentrations and modeled mercury concentrations in each lake. Least square means of the response variable are used as an estimate of the magnitude and significance of bias, i.e., a statistically discernable trend in predictive errors for a given lake type, e.g., acidic, stratified, or oligotrophic. Using our approach, we determined lake types where significant over-prediction and under-prediction of epilimnetic total mercury concentration was occurring, i.e., regions in parameter space where the model demonstrated significant bias was distinguished from regions where no significant bias existed. This technique is most effective for finding regions of parameter space where bias is significant. Drawing conclusions concerning regions that show no significant bias can be misleading. The significant interaction terms in the GLM demonstrated that addressing this problem using univariate statistical techniques would lead to a loss of important information.     

丙硫克百威在几种土壤中的吸附

用批量平衡法研究了丙硫克百威在几种土壤中的吸附行为,测定其有机碳吸附常数KOC,给出吸附等温线.研究结果表明,丙硫克百威在几种土壤中的吸附可用Freundlich经验方程较好地描述,丙硫克百威在土壤中的迁移能力为中等.     

Evaluating the environmental flows of China's Wolonghu wetland and land use changes using a hydrological model, a water balance model, and remote sensing

Environmental flows are critical to sustaining a variety of plant and animal communities in wetlands. However, evaluation of environmental flows is hampered by the problem of hydrological and ecological data shortage, especially in many developing countries such as China. Based on a hydrological model, a water balance model and remote sensing data, we assessed the environmental flows of China's Wolonghu wetland with limited data. The hydrological model provides input data for the water balance model of the wetland, and the remote sensing data can be used to assess land use changes. Integration of these two models with the remote sensing data revealed both the environmental flows of the Wolonghu wetland and the relationships between these environmental flows and land use changes. The results demonstrate that environmental flows have direct and indirect influences on the wetland ecosystem and should be linked to sustainable wetland management.     

Zooplankton population model coupled to a biogeochemical model of the North Western Mediterranean Sea ecosystem

A stage structured population (SSP) model based on Fennel's [Fennel, W., 2001. Modelling copepods with links to circulation models. Journal of Plankton Research, 23, 1217–1232] equations is applied to Centropages typicus (Kröyer), a dominant copepod species of the North Western Mediterranean Sea (NWMS) and a prey of small pelagic fish. The model considers five groups of stages and development rates are represented by a mechanistic formulation depending on individual specific growth in each stage. Individual growth is calculated from the individual energy budget depending on food availability and temperature.     

Hydrodynamic and towing characteristics of a modified model of the Clarke Jet Net

In a series of studies to develop an effective high speed plankton sampler, hydrodynamic research was carried out on a modified model of the Clarke Jet Net. A theoretical analysis of the motion of the sampler was made using an IBM 7040 computer, and test tows were made in an experimental ship tank and at sea. To maintain the roll angle of the sampler at approximately zero, a v-shape bridle was applied. A pair of towing holes should be selected for the particular range of towing velocity. The calculated longitudinal stability seemed good in all the cases examined. Towing tests in the ship tank at 2 to 3 m/sec revealed sufficient stability. The motion of the sampler at speeds higher than 3 m/sec can be assumed from hydrodynamic coefficients derived from the ship tank experiment. Towing-cable characteristics, assumed by computation, indicated that about 500 m at 6 kt and 1,000 m at 12 kt should be paid out to lower the sampler down to 100 m. The effect of the sampler on the cable is found only adjacent to it and is almost negligible beyond 50 m from it in depth. Results of sea tests at 6 and 9 kt confirmed the stability of the sampler. Examination of the catch suggested that the present model can be used, with some modifications, for the quantitative and qualitative sampling of large zooplankton.Contribution No. 231 from the Seikai Regional Fisheries Research Laboratory, Nagasaki.     

英汉习语的文化差异分析及翻译策略探索

该文就引起英汉习语差异的地理环境、宗教信仰、风俗习惯、历史文化等方面进行分析,提出了采用直译、意译、同义习语套用法、对称增字等方法对习语进行翻译,以期在英汉习语互译中达到最佳效果.参6.     

On the sudden disappearance of Egeria densa from a Ramsar wetland site of Southern Chile: A climatic event trigger model

Contemporary shallow lakes theory proposes that these ecosystems may experience abrupt regime shifts due to small changes in controlling variables or triggers. So far, these triggers have been related mostly to nutrients as the immediate driver. During May 2004 the río Cruces wetland, a Ramsar site located in Southern Chile, underwent a major regime shift, from a clear water state, vastly dominated by the invasive macrophyte Egeria densa, to a turbid water state. In this article we show, through the analysis of long-term meteorological data that late fall 2004 was anomalous due to the presence of a high-pressure cell that persisted most of the month of May over Southern Chile. This climatic event caused an almost complete absence of precipitations and lower temperatures during this period, including several freezing nights. Eco-physiological experiments showed that 6 h exposure to desiccation kill the macrophyte. We developed a simple-biology dynamic model, under Stella Research 9.1, to show that the climatic anomaly of May 2004, plus the increased sedimentation of the wetland's floodplains, and the associated response of E. densa, explains its sudden disappearance from río Cruces wetland.