A mathematical model of field population dynamics of the southern pine beetle, dendroctonus frontalis

The southern pine beetle, Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann, is a major insect pest of pines in the southern U.S.A. A population dynamic model of D. frontalis within an infestation was developed. The model is based on the integration of several component submodels that describe individual life stage processes of the beetle. The inclusion of variable forest stand density and microclimate conditions results in a model response which closely follows actual field responses. A sensitivity analysis was performed to investigate effects of weather conditions and the importance of the spatial patterns within the forest.     

Dynamics of pheromone production and communication in the mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, and the pine engraver, Ips pini (Say) (Coleoptera: Scolytidae)

Summary. The mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, and the pine engraver, Ips pini (Say), often co-exist in lodgepole pine, Pinus contorta var. latifolia Engelmann. Intra- and interspecific semiochemical communication occurs in both species and their complete semiochemical repertoire and precise dynamics of pheromone production have not been elucidated. Porapak-Q extracts of captured volatiles from beetles of each species aerated at different attack phases (freshly emerged, pioneer sex alone in the log and both sexes paired in new galleries), followed by gas chromatographic-electroantennographic detection (GC-EAD) and GC-mass spectroscopic analyses identified 17 compounds (seven compounds common to both species, six present in D. ponderosae and four present in I. pini) that excited the antennae of either or both species. Seven compounds for D. ponderosae and nine for I. pini had not been assessed for behavioural activity. In field trapping experiments, 2-phenylethanol produced by both species inhibited the response of D. ponderosae to its aggregation pheromones. exo- and endo-Brevicomin produced by D. ponderosae significantly decreased the response of I. pini to its aggregation pheromone ipsdienol. Nonanal, a ubiquitous compound found in the volatiles of lodgepole pine, various nonhosts and in both beetle species deterred the response of I. pini to ipsdienol. The occurrence of cis-verbenol, trans-verbenol and verbenone in emergent I. pini, and verbenone and 2-phenylethanol in emergent D. ponderosae suggests that these compounds may inhibit aggregation and induce dispersal following emergence. Termination of aggregation in D. ponderosae appears to depend on the production of frontalin in combination with changes in the relative ratios of verbenone, exo-brevicomin, trans-verbenol and 2-phenylethanol. In I. pini, the cessation of ipsdienol production by males is probably the main factor in terminating aggregation. Received 16 November 1999; accepted 7 August 2000     

Incorporating behaviour into simple models of dispersal using the biological control agent Dicyphus hesperus

We explored the utility of incorporating easily measured, biologically realistic movement rules into simple models of dispersal. We depart from traditional random walk models by designing an individual-based simulation model where we decompose animal movement into three separate processes: emigration, between-patch movement, and immigration behaviour. These processes were quantified using experiments on the omnivorous insect Dicyphus hesperus moving through a tomato greenhouse. We compare the predictions of the individual-based model, along with a series of biased random walk models, against an independent experimental release of D. hesperus. We find that in this system, the short-term dispersal of these insects is described well by our individual-based model, but can also be described by a 2D grid-based biased random walk model when mortality is accounted for.     

Modeling amphibian energetics, habitat suitability, and movements of western toads, Anaxyrus (=Bufo) boreas, across present and future landscapes

Effective conservation of amphibian populations requires the prediction of how amphibians use and move through a landscape. Amphibians are closely coupled to their physical environment. Thus an approach that uses the physiological attributes of amphibians, together with knowledge of their natural history, should be helpful. We used Niche Mapper™ to model the known movements and habitat use patterns of a population of Western toads (Anaxyrus (=Bufo) boreas) occupying forested habitats in southeastern Idaho. Niche Mapper uses first principles of environmental biophysics to combine features of topography, climate, land cover, and animal features to model microclimates and animal physiology and behavior across landscapes. Niche Mapper reproduced core body temperatures (T_c) and evaporation rates of live toads with average errors of 1.6 ± 0.4 °C and 0.8 ± 0.2 g/h, respectively. For four different habitat types, it reproduced similar mid-summer daily temperature patterns as those measured in the field and calculated evaporation rates (g/h) with an average error rate of 7.2 ± 5.5%. Sensitivity analyses indicate these errors do not significantly affect estimates of food consumption or activity. Using Niche Mapper we predicted the daily habitats used by free-ranging toads; our accuracy for female toads was greater than for male toads (74.2 ± 6.8% and 53.6 ± 15.8%, respectively), reflecting the stronger patterns of habitat selection among females. Using these changing to construct a cost surface, we also reconstructed movement paths that were consistent with field observations. The effect of climate warming on toads depends on the interaction of temperature and atmospheric moisture. If climate change occurs as predicted, results from Niche Mapper suggests that climate warming will increase the physiological cost of landscapes thereby limiting the activity for toads in different habitats.     

Population structure and life cycle of the mesopelagic ostracod Conchoecia pseudodiscophora in Toyama Bay,southern Japan Sea

The population structure and life cycle of the mesopelagic ostracod Conchoecia pseudodiscophora Rudjakov in Toyama Bay, southern Japan Sea, were investigated using a time-series of samples collected during 0 to 500 m vertical hausls with twin-type Norpac nets (0.35 and 0.10 mm mesh) over one full year (1 February 1990 to 30 January 1991). Additional samples were also collected with a single-type closing Norpac net (0.06 mm mesh) to examine the vertical distribution patterns of eggs and all instars of this species. The proportion of gravid females present indicated that reproduction of C. pseudodiscophora continues throughout the year, but peaks in April–July. Eggs and Instars I and II were distributed below 500 m, while the more advanced instars were most abundant in the 350 to 500 m stratum by both day and night. Based on the abundance peaks of each instar in the time-series samples, development times were estimated to be 2.5, 4, 3, 7 and 11 mo for Instars III, IV, V, VI, and VII, respectively. Thus, a total of 30 mo is required for newly spawned eggs to hatch and reach adulthood. Stomach-fullness indexes revealed no seasonality in the feeding activity of any instar stage, but that feeding activity was low in older instars, particularly in adult males. The present results are compared with those for a few other ostracod species, in an attempt to characterize the life cycle of C. pseudodiscophora inhabiting waters of subzero temperature in the mesopelagic zone of the Japan Sea.     

Biogeographical differences between the two Capra pyrenaica subspecies, C. p. victoriae and C. p. hispanica, inhabiting the Iberian Peninsula: Implications for conservation

The Iberian wild goat (Capra pyrenaica), an endemic species to the Iberian Peninsula, was represented in the past by four subspecies. Currently, the conservation status of the recognized subspecies - C. p. hispanica and C. p. victoriae - is quite different, being the former broadly distributed while the latter inhabits fewer and smaller areas. In this global context, our specific aims were to assess the biogeographical relationships, similarities and differences between the Iberian wild goat subspecies, and to evaluate their conservation status from a biogeographical perspective. We modelled the ecogeographical favourability for each subspecies, and also for the whole species, and we comparatively analyzed the spatial relationships among models in order to detect differential biogeographical patterns. Our results showed a differential pattern for each Iberian wild goat subspecies, and thus each one should be independently considered when designing management strategies. The distribution of C. p. victoriae was closely related to climatic conditions, thus it is highly sensitive to variations in climatic characteristics. Finally, from the perspective of metapopulation theory, and according to the geographical structure of their favourable areas, C. p. victoriae is at higher risk than C. p. hispanica. We discuss the implications of our results for species/subspecies conservation, and highlight the importance of conservation biogeography.     

Volatiles from the bark of trembling aspen, Populus tremuloides Michx. (Salicaceae) disrupt secondary attraction by the mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Scolytidae)

Summary. Coupled gas chromatographic-electroantennographic detection (GC-EAD) analysis of the Porapak Q-captured volatiles from the bark of trembling aspen, Populus tremuloides Michx., revealed four compounds that consistently elicited antennal responses by mountain pine beetles (MPBs), Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins. One of these, 1-hexanol, disrupted the capture of MPBs in multiple-funnel traps baited with the aggregation pheromones trans-verbenol and exo-brevicomin and the host kairomone myrcene, a blend of semiochemicals that mediates the secondary attraction response in which beetles mass attack and kill living pines. The other three EAD-active aspen bark volatiles, benzyl alcohol, benzaldehyde and nonanal, were inactive alone, but in binary and ternary combinations contributed to a disruptive effect in an additive and redundant manner when all four aspen bark volatiles were tested in all possible binary and ternary blends. The best ternary blend and the quarternary blend achieved ≥ 80% disruption. The quarternary blend enhanced the disruptive effect of the antiaggregation pheromone verbenone in traps, raising the disruptive effect to 98%, and also enhanced the inhibition of attack on attractant-baited lodgepole pines. This is the first demonstration of specific compounds from the bark of angiosperm trees that disrupt the secondary attraction response of sympatric coniferophagous bark beetles. The results support the hypothesis that such bark beetles are adapted to recognize and avoid non-host angiosperm trees by responding to a broad spectrum of volatiles that can act in various blends with equal effect. Received 27 October 1997; accepted 20 February 1998.     

Growth pattern of the sea urchin, Loxechinus albus (Molina, 1782) in southern Chile: evaluation of growth models

The growth pattern of Loxechinus albus in southern Chile was studied using size-at-age data obtained by reading growth bands on the genital plates. The scatter plots of sizes-at-age for samples collected in three different locations indicated that growth is linear between ages 2 and 10. Five different growth models, including linear, asymptotic and non-asymptotic functions, were fitted to the data, and model selection was conducted based on the Akaike information criteria (AIC) and the Bayesian information criteria (BIC). The AIC identified the Tanaka model as the most suitable for two of the three sites. However, the BIC led to the selection of the linear model for all zones. Our results show that the growth pattern of L. albus is different from the predominantly asymptotic pattern that has been reported for other sea urchin species.     

Assessing the past and future distribution and productivity of ponderosa pine in the Pacific Northwest using a process model, 3-PG

Climate variability at decadal scales influences not only the growth of widely distributed species such as Pinus ponderosa, but also can have an effect on the timing and severity of fire and insect outbreaks that may alter species distributions. In this paper, we present a spatial modelling technique to assess the influence of climatic variability on the annual productivity of P. ponderosa in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) of North America over the past 100 years and infer how a sustained change in climate might alter the geographic distribution of this species across defined ecotones. Field observations were used to establish criteria for P. ponderosa dominance including: (1) maximum summer leaf area index (LAI), ranges between 1.5 and 2.5; (2) 80% of available soil water is depleted during summer months; and (3) soil water will return to full capacity at least once during the year. Where these three criteria were not met, eventual replacement of P. ponderosa would be predicted. We utilized a simple physiological model, Physiological Principles for Predicting Growth (3-PG) to predict annual variation in LAI from climatic data provided by the Oregon Climate Service over the period from 1900 to 2000 and from broad scale 0.5°-spatial resolution future climate projections produced by the Hadley Climate Center, UK. From these simulations we produced a series of maps that display predicted shifts of zones where ponderosa pine might be expected to contract or expand its range if modeled climatic conditions at annual and decadal intervals were sustained. From the historical simulations, the most favorable year for pine dominance was 1958 and the least favorable, 1924. The most favorable decade was in the 1900s and the least favorable in the 1930s. The future predictions indicate a reduction in the current range of the P. ponderosa type along the western Cascade Range however, an increase along the east side and inland PNW. The model predicts that pine dominance should increase between 5 and 10% over the next century, mainly in inland Oregon, Idaho, and Washington.     

The abundance and life histories of terrestrial isopods in a salt marsh of the Ria Formosa lagoon system,southern Portugal

Four species of isopod characteristic of salt marsh habitats, Tylos ponticus, Porcellio lamellatus, Halophiloscia couchii and Armadillidium album coexist in the upper reaches of the Ria Formosa lagoon salt marsh system in southern Portugal. In this locality, T. ponticus is the most abundant of the four species with mean annual densities of 2,950 m⁻² and a peak density of 10,387 m⁻² in July 1998 which is very much higher than what has previously been recorded for any isopod in any habitat. The mean annual densities for the other species were lower: P. lamellatus 36 m⁻², A. album 19 m⁻² and H. couchii 3 m⁻², indicating a less significant role in this ecosystem. Tylos ponticus and A. album started to breed on May, 24 and 12 months after release from the marsupium, respectively, where as other species start to breed in March, 12 months after their release from the marsupium. Tylos ponticus has a relative growth rate (RGR) of 0.23 between release from the marsupium and time of first breeding in July of its second year and breeds at a mature mass of 3.6 mg AFDM whereas the other three species mature after 10–12 months, have more than double this RGR but because of the shorter pre-reproductive period breed at masses of 1.8 mg AFDM for P. lamellatus, 1.0 mg AFDM for H. couchii, and 1.1 mg AFDM for A. album, respectively. The mass specific fecundity of all three of the less abundant species was higher than that of T. ponticus but the offspring of T. ponticus were ten times heavier than those of the next largest species, P. lammellatus. The difference in abundances between the species is interpreted as being due to the larger mass of the offspring of the most successful species. This larger mass confers an adaptive advantage due to larger size being associated with reduced juvenile mortality for isopods under abiotically stressful conditions. M. Sprung died in an accident on June 18, 2003     

Distribution,growth and life cycle of the mesopelagic amphipod Primno abyssalis (Hyperiidea: Phrosinidae) in the southern Japan sea

The vertical distribution, growth, maturation, brood size and life cycle of the hyperiid amphipod Primno abyssalis (formerly P. macropa) were investigated using seasonal samples collected from Toyama Bay, southern Japan Sea, during the period June 1986 to September 1992. Over four different seasons of the year, P. abyssalis was most abundant in the 200 to 350 m strata at night and the 350 to 400 m strata during the day, indicating 100 to 150 m as the general distance of diel vertical movement. Some differences in vertical migrating behavior were noted among juveniles, adult males and females. Population-structure analysis revealed the occurrence of three cohorts aged 0+, 1+ and 2+ yr. Growth as body length in this species is linear with time. Estimated time to complete one life cycle is 1.8 to 2.5 yr for females, but only 0.8 yr for males. Maximum longevity is 2.8 yr. Instar analysis based on the segment number of pleopod rami indicated that newly hatched juveniles molt ten times to reach adult male, and four more times to reach adult female. Adult instar number was found to be only 1 for males and 5 for females. Ovigerous females occurred throughout the year, but the annual peak of release of juveniles from the female's marsupium is estimated to be arly March. Brood size was not correlated with female size, a maximum brood size of 214 eggs was recorded. The dry and ash-free dry weights of instars suggested that juveniles in the female marsupium, adult males, and older adult females are less active feeding or non-feeding stages. Except for the reduced growth rate and the occurrence of small, short-lived males, most characteristics of P. abyssalis are consistent with the present view of the life modes of mesopelagic animals, including linear growth in length, aseasonal reproduction, and smaller brood size coupled with larger eggs.     

A combined coastal protection,realignment and wetland restoration scheme in the southern Baltic: planning process,public information and participation

Markgrafenheide-Hütelmoor covers a total area of 1000 ha (about 490 ha are coastal moor) and a coastline of about 6 km. This touristy area belongs to the city of Rostock in Germany. As response to sea level rise and heavy coastal erosion, the small seaside resort Markgrafenheide received a comprehensive storm surge protection until 2006. Subsequently, the adjacent Hütelmoor was flooded with the aim to restore it as a brackish coastal moor. Coastal protection measures at the Baltic Sea coastline were abandoned to enable natural dynamics, a coastal realignment and salt water intrusions. The entire process until full implementation took 14 years and was associated with very problematic public participation and a strong local polarization. Based on a literature and media review, two surveys, and expert interviews we retrospectively document and analyse the planning process with focus on public information, perception and participation. The local population and holidaymakers did not perceive coastal changes and if, did not associate them with climate change. Interviewees remembered single storm surges, but felt save from it and sea level rise was not perceived as a threat. 89% said that they feel insufficiently informed about the combined coastal protection wetland restoration measure, but did not use the offered information possibilities. 81% had their information from newspapers and freely distributed advertisers. It seems that insufficient information was the major reason for the problems with local acceptance and public participation. The media played a dominating role. The decline of traditional newspapers and the growths of free advertisers seemed to have a negative impact on quality of information and favoured a polarization. Additionally, we discuss local specifics like the cultural background (GDR history), traditions, frustration and the relatively old population and their role in public participation. We strongly promote a pro-active and long-term information and public relation strategy.     

Early development and estimated life cycle of the mesopelagic copepod Pareuchaeta elongata in the southern Japan Sea

Life cycle of the mesopelagic copepod Pareuchaeta elongata was investigated combining laboratory rearing data on the eggs, nauplii, and early copepodites with field growth data on the late copepodites. Examination and incubation at near the in situ temperature (0.5°C) of egg sacs collected from the field indicated that the clutch size was 13 to 24 eggs (mean: 20), hatching time was 39.4d (mean), and hatchability was low (mean: 28.5%). The development time at 0.5°C was 2.4 d for Nauplius Stage 1 (N1), 4.6 d for N2, 6.2 d for N3. 7.4 d for N4, 7.1 d for N5, 20.8 d for N6, 36.7 d for Copepodite Stage 1 (C1) and 65.3 d for C2. From the numerical analysis of seasonal samples collected from the field, the development time was estimated as 1 mo for C3, 2 mo for C4 and 2.5 mo for C5. Thus, the egg hatching time plus the integrated development time by stage was 355 d or nearly 1 yr (i.e. span of one life cycle). Duration of the C6 (adult) was estimated as>2.5 mo. Combining the present data on development times of each stage with published data on the major spawning season (August to October) and ontogenetic migration, a schematic representation of the life cycle of this copepod was developed. Between-stage comparison of wet, dry, and ash-free dry weights of all developmental stages of preserved wild specimens revealed that there is almost no gain in weight during naupliar stages, and the greatest weight increment over the life cycle was during the C4 stage. The present results are compared with those for the same and related species living in other regions.     

The morphology,anatomy and life history of a complanate form of Scytosiphon lomentaria (Scytosiphonales,Phaeophyta) from southern Australia

Complanate Scytosiphon lomentaria (Lyngbye) J. Agardh is characterised and distinguished from the typical cylindrical form by a flattened thallus, plurilocular sporangia having a mucilaginous covering layer, and an autumn-spring seasonal growth pattern. Cultural studies show that zooids from the plurilocular sporangia give rise to an independent ralfsioid stage, to ralfsioid plethysmothalli bearing complanate fronds, and to a cylindrical form of S. lomentaria. In culture, the complanate thalli are initiated only in short-day conditions, cylindrical thalli are initiated in both short- and long-day conditions. Ralfsioid thalli are of two kinds: one developing independently of day length, the other developing only during long days; the alternative short-day thallus form is complanate.     

Definition and calculation of uncertainty in ecological process models

We present a method of multi-criteria assessment for the analysis of process model uncertainty that combines analysis of model structure, parameters and data requirements. There are three components in calculation and definition of uncertainty.

(1)

Assessment criteria: Uncertainty in a process model is reduced as the model can simultaneously simulate an increased number of assessment criteria selected to test specific aspects of the theory being investigated, and within acceptable limits set for those criteria. This reduces incomplete specification of the model—the characteristic that a model may explain some, but not all, of the observed features of a phenomenon. The calculation required is computation of the Pareto set which provides the list of simultaneously achieved criteria within specified ranges.     

Modelling spatial and temporal variability in a zero-inflated variable: The case of stone pine (Pinus pinea L.) cone production

Modelling masting habit, i.e. the spatial synchronized annual variability in fruit production, is a huge task due to two main circumstances: (1) the identification of main ecological factors controlling fruiting processes, and (2) the common departure of fruit data series from the main basic statistical assumptions of normality and independence. Stone pine (Pinus pinea L.) is one of the main species in the Mediterranean basin that is able to grow under hard limiting conditions (sandy soils and extreme continental climate), and typically defined as a masting species. Considering the high economical value associated with edible nut production, the masting habit of stone pine has been a main concern for the forest management of the species. In the present work we have used annual fruit data series from 740 stone pine trees measured during a 13 years period (1996-2008) in order: (a) to verify our main hypothesis pointing out to the existence of a weather control of the fruiting process in limiting environments, rather than resource depletion or endogenous inherent cycles; (b) to identify those site factors, stand attributes and climate events affecting specific traits involved in fruiting process; and (c) to construct a model for predicting spatial and temporal patterns of variability in stone pine cone production at different spatial extents as region, stand and tree. Given the nature of the data, the model has been formulated as zero-inflated log-normal, incorporating random components to carry out with the observed lack of independence. This model attains efficiencies close to 70-80% in predicting temporal and spatial variability at regional scale. Though efficiencies are reduced according to the spatial extent of the model, it leads to unbiased estimates and efficiencies over 35-50% when predicting annual yields at tree or stand scale, respectively. In this sense, the proposed model is a main tool for facilitating decision making in some management aspects such as the quantification of total amount of cones annually supplied to nut industry, design of cone harvest programs or the optimal application of seedling felling.     

Simulation model of universal law of school size distribution applied to southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii) in the Great Australian Bight

A universal law of animal group size distribution correlates well to observed fish school size distribution from fisheries catch data. I applied the law to fisheries independent aerial survey data of southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii) collected over a 10-year period in the Great Australian Bight. The law does not correlate to the observed school size distribution. A computer model originally demonstrated the formation of the universal law from simple rules. I redesigned this model as an individual-based simulation model calibrated from acoustic tag observations and state a mathematical formula for a resultant new family of transient group size distributions. The new formula correlates accurately to the simulation and to the aerial survey data. I use the mathematical model to estimate area of aggregation and total abundance. This approach is new as it does not seek stationary states of group size distribution and because it demonstrates a quantitative relationship between individual behaviour and group size distribution. This work elevates the pattern of group size distribution from a curiosity to a useful tool, and introduces a new family of transient distributions that may have a general application to other grouping phenomena.     

Computer simulation applied to the biological control of the insect Aphis gossypii for the parasitoid Lysiphlebus testaceipes

In integrated pest management (IPM), biological control is one of the possible options for the prevention or remediation of an unacceptable pest activity or damage. The success of forecast models in IPM depends, among other factors, on the knowledge of temperature effect over pests and its natural enemies. In this work, we simulated the effects of parasitism of Lysiphlebus testaceipes (Cresson, 1880) (Hymenoptera: Aphidiidae) on Aphis gossypii (Glover, 1877) (Hemiptera: Aphididae), a pest that is associated to crops of great economic importance in several parts of the world. We made use of experimental data relative to the host and its parasitoid at different temperatures. Age structure was incorporated into the dynamics through the Penna model. The results obtained showed that simulation, as a forecast model, can be a useful tool for biological control programs.     

Ecological niche similarities of Peponapis bees and non-domesticated Cucurbita species

Peponapis bees are considered specialized pollinators of Cucurbita flowers, a genus that presents several species of economic value (squashes and pumpkins). Both genera originated in the Americas, and their diversity dispersion center is in Mexico. Ten species of Peponapis and ten species of Cucurbita (only non-domesticated species) were analyzed considering the similarity of their ecological niche characteristics with respect to climatic conditions of their occurrence areas (abiotic variables) and interactions between species (biotic variables). The similarity of climatic conditions (temperature and precipitation) was estimated through cluster analyses. The areas of potential occurrence of the most similar species were obtained through ecological niche modeling and summed with geographic information system tools. Three main clusters were obtained: one with species that shared potential occurrence areas mainly in deserts (P. pruinosa, P. timberlakei, C. digitata, C. palmata, C. foetidissima), another in moist forests (P. limitaris, P. atrata, C. lundelliana, C. o. martinezii) and a third mainly in dry forests (C. a. sororia, C. radicans, C. pedatifolia, P. azteca, P. smithi, P. crassidentata, P. utahensis). Some species with similar ecological niche presented potential shared areas that are also similar to their geographical distribution, like those occurring predominantly on deserts. However, some clustered species presented larger geographical areas, such as P. pruinosa and C. foetidissima suggesting other drivers than climatic conditions to shape their distributions. The domestication of Cucurbita and also the natural history of both genera were considered also as important factors.