Using Expert Opinion Surveys to Rank Threats to Endangered Species: A Case Study with Sea Turtles

Abstract: Little is known about how specific anthropogenic hazards affect the biology of organisms. Quantifying the effect of regional hazards is particularly challenging for species such as sea turtles because they are migratory, difficult to study, long lived, and face multiple anthropogenic threats. Expert elicitation, a technique used to synthesize opinions of experts while assessing uncertainty around those views, has been in use for several decades in the social science and risk assessment sectors. We conducted an internet‐based survey to quantify expert opinion on the relative magnitude of anthropogenic hazards to sea turtle populations at the regional level. Fisheries bycatch and coastal development were most often ranked as the top hazards to sea turtle species in a geographic region. Nest predation and direct take followed as the second and third greatest threats, respectively. Survey results suggest most experts believe sea turtles are threatened by multiple factors, including substantial at‐sea threats such as fisheries bycatch. Resources invested by the sea turtle community, however, appear biased toward terrestrial‐based impacts. Results from the survey are useful for conservation planning because they provide estimates of relative impacts of hazards on sea turtles and a measure of consensus on the magnitude of those impacts among researchers and practitioners. Our survey results also revealed patterns of expert bias, which we controlled for in our analysis. Respondents with no experience with respect to a sea turtle species tended to rank hazards affecting that sea turtle species higher than respondents with experience. A more‐striking pattern was with hazard‐based expertise: the more experience a respondent had with a specific hazard, the higher the respondent scored the impact of that hazard on sea turtle populations. Bias‐controlled expert opinion surveys focused on threatened species and their hazards can help guide and expedite species recovery plans.     

土壤DDT残留时间的定量表征-以天津为例

从定性研究逐步向定量化分析发展,是土壤DDT残留时间研究的必然趋势。初步探讨了土壤中DDT残留时间的定量表征,设计出归一化的DDT残留时间指数(NRTI)作为定量表征土壤DDT残留时间的方法之一。根据对天津土壤中残留DDT的采样监测结果的计算和分析,发现NRTI在表征DDT的残留时间问题上,相对于传统方法有一定的改进。     

Implications of Intratropical Migration on Reserve Design: A Case Study Using Pharomachrus mocinno

As habitat loss continues, natural protected areas will become islands in human-modified landscapes; maintenance of functional communities and ecosystems will depend on properly designed protected areas. We demonstrate that incorporating regional habitat linkages that allow for seasonal migrations of intratropical resident species must be a major design criterion for establishing protected areas. Using radiotelemetry, we monitored the seasonal movements of one such migrant, the Resplendent Quetzal ( Pharomachrus mocinno ), a large, frugivorous bird, one of many tropical residents known to migrate altitudinally within Mesoamerica. Based on three years of data we determined that quetzals followed a complicated local migration that linked four montane life zones. Using this species as an indicator revealed that the configuration of the Monteverde reserve complex in the Tilaran Mountains in west-central Costa Rica lacked sufficient habitat distribution to conserve montane biodiversity. On the basis of these results, we propose that the three-step process proposed by Soulé and Simberloff (1986) for estimating minimum sizes of reserves be amended to include a fourth step: The critical habitats used throughout the annual cycles of target or keystone species must be identified and adequately protected. Natural protected areas can be considered adequately designed only when sufficient area with a full complement of ecologically linked habitats is included.     

Fast Ferry Traffic as a Qualitatively New Forcing Factor of Environmental Processes in Non-Tidal Sea Areas: A Case Study in Tallinn Bay,Baltic Sea

The impact of wake wash from high-speed ferries on the coastal environment in non-tidal seas is analysed in terms of wave energy and power, and properties of the largest waves. Shown is that hydrodynamic loads caused by heavy high-speed traffic may play a decisive role not only in low-energy coasts but also in certain areas with high wind wave activity. For example, ship-generated waves form, at least, about 5–8% from the total wave energy and about 18–35% from the wave power in the coastal areas of Tallinn Bay exposed to dominating winds. The periods of wake waves from high-speed ships frequently are much larger than dominating periods of wind waves. The leading waves typically have a height of about 1 m and a period of 10–15 s. Such waves extremely seldom occur in natural conditions in many regions of semi-enclosed seas. They cause unusually high hydrodynamic loads in the deeper part of the nearshore. The fast ferry traffic thus is a qualitatively new forcing component of vital impact on the local ecosystem. It is demonstrated that wakes from high-speed ferries may trigger considerable changes of the existing balance of coastal processes. Owing to their low decay rates combined with their exceptional compactness after crossing many kilometres of the sea surface, such wakes may cause considerable remote impact of the ship traffic. This feature has to be addressed in the analysis of the impact of harbours and associated ship traffic in the neighbourhood of vulnerable areas.     

Effects of Tour Boats on the Behavior of Bottlenose Dolphins: Using Markov Chains to Model Anthropogenic Impacts

Abstract:   Nature-based tourism activities have been developing over the last decade, but it is still difficult to manage these activities sustainably. This sector is increasingly focusing on whales and dolphins in coastal communities, but the exact effects of these tourism activities are unclear. Markov chain modeling may help researchers assess the effects of tourism activities on the behavioral budget of small cetaceans. Matrix models have been used widely in population ecology to provide successful management guidelines. From June 2000 to August 2001, I collected information on the behavioral state of bottlenose dolphin (  Tursiops spp.) schools from a population residing in Doubtful Sound, Fiordland, New Zealand. In addition, I recorded the occurrence of boat and dolphin interactions. I then calculated the transition probabilities of passing from one behavior to another by using a first-order, time-discrete Markov chain model. Behavioral transitions during which a boat-dolphin interaction occurred were compiled in an "impact" chain. All other transitions were tallied in a control chain. I then quantified the effect of boat-dolphin interactions during behavioral transitions by comparing the behavioral transition probabilities of both chains. Socializing and resting behaviors were disrupted by interactions with boats to a level that raises concern. Both the duration of bouts and the total amount of time spent in both these behavioral states were substantially decreased. Dolphins were significantly more likely to be traveling after an interaction with a boat. However, the overall behavioral budget of the population was not significantly affected. Therefore, the bottlenose dolphin population seems to be able to sustain the present level of boat interactions because of its low intensity. More effort is needed to develop prognosis analyses in order to understand how the effect of boat interactions on dolphins changes with variations in intensity.     

Application of Genetic Bottleneck Testing to the Investigation of Amphibian Declines: a Case Study with Natterjack Toads

Abstract: Declines of amphibians are causing widespread concern and in some cases have been explained by factors such as climate change and the spread of microbial pathogens. A problem remains, however, in the unequivocal demonstration of decline in situations where populations may be undergoing natural fluctuations in abundance. We describe the application of a genetic test for bottlenecks ( Cornuet & Luikart 1996 ) that should distinguish between natural oscillations and true population declines. British natterjack toads (   Bufo calamita  ) provide examples of populations that have not declined in recent decades, populations that have declined, and populations in which trends are unclear. Microsatellite allele frequency data from these populations were tested for heterozygote excess and shifts in allele frequency distributions, and inferences from these computations about bottlenecks (i.e., persistently smaller population sizes than the recent means) were compared with demographic information. The genetic test correctly identified bottlenecks and should therefore prove useful in demonstrating whether amphibian declines have occurred where long-term demographic time series are not available.     

微宇宙技术和物种敏感度分布曲线法评估铜离子生态危害比对研究

为对比微宇宙方法和物种敏感度分布曲线法在铜离子生态危害评估中的差异,构建了包括浮游藻类、轮虫和大型溞的微宇宙系统,持续监测了铜离子浓度、物种丰度和系统理化性质的变化,推导出铜离子对微宇宙系统的63 d无显著效应浓度(63 d-NOEC);同时,将铜离子对鱼类、甲壳类、昆虫类、藻类及软体动物等对铜离子的长期毒性数据通过物种敏感度分布曲线法进行拟合,推导出对生态系统中95%物种无显著危害的作用浓度(HC5)。测试结果表明,大型溞种群在铜离子110.80μg·L-1作用下暂时消失,导致了系统中轮虫和藻类数量的增长,试验后期铜离子浓度降低,大型溞种群呈现恢复的趋势;在212.06及420.26μg·L-1铜离子作用下,藻类和轮虫的存活受到严重抑制,在试验后期也没有恢复。与物种敏感度分布曲线法推导得出的HC5值相比,通过微宇宙系统得出的NOEC值较高,这可能是微宇宙系统中铜离子生物可利用性在各相介质间的差异及种间反馈调节造成的。