Using Expert Opinion Surveys to Rank Threats to Endangered Species: A Case Study with Sea Turtles

Abstract: Little is known about how specific anthropogenic hazards affect the biology of organisms. Quantifying the effect of regional hazards is particularly challenging for species such as sea turtles because they are migratory, difficult to study, long lived, and face multiple anthropogenic threats. Expert elicitation, a technique used to synthesize opinions of experts while assessing uncertainty around those views, has been in use for several decades in the social science and risk assessment sectors. We conducted an internet‐based survey to quantify expert opinion on the relative magnitude of anthropogenic hazards to sea turtle populations at the regional level. Fisheries bycatch and coastal development were most often ranked as the top hazards to sea turtle species in a geographic region. Nest predation and direct take followed as the second and third greatest threats, respectively. Survey results suggest most experts believe sea turtles are threatened by multiple factors, including substantial at‐sea threats such as fisheries bycatch. Resources invested by the sea turtle community, however, appear biased toward terrestrial‐based impacts. Results from the survey are useful for conservation planning because they provide estimates of relative impacts of hazards on sea turtles and a measure of consensus on the magnitude of those impacts among researchers and practitioners. Our survey results also revealed patterns of expert bias, which we controlled for in our analysis. Respondents with no experience with respect to a sea turtle species tended to rank hazards affecting that sea turtle species higher than respondents with experience. A more‐striking pattern was with hazard‐based expertise: the more experience a respondent had with a specific hazard, the higher the respondent scored the impact of that hazard on sea turtle populations. Bias‐controlled expert opinion surveys focused on threatened species and their hazards can help guide and expedite species recovery plans.     

Implications of Intratropical Migration on Reserve Design: A Case Study Using Pharomachrus mocinno

As habitat loss continues, natural protected areas will become islands in human-modified landscapes; maintenance of functional communities and ecosystems will depend on properly designed protected areas. We demonstrate that incorporating regional habitat linkages that allow for seasonal migrations of intratropical resident species must be a major design criterion for establishing protected areas. Using radiotelemetry, we monitored the seasonal movements of one such migrant, the Resplendent Quetzal ( Pharomachrus mocinno ), a large, frugivorous bird, one of many tropical residents known to migrate altitudinally within Mesoamerica. Based on three years of data we determined that quetzals followed a complicated local migration that linked four montane life zones. Using this species as an indicator revealed that the configuration of the Monteverde reserve complex in the Tilaran Mountains in west-central Costa Rica lacked sufficient habitat distribution to conserve montane biodiversity. On the basis of these results, we propose that the three-step process proposed by Soulé and Simberloff (1986) for estimating minimum sizes of reserves be amended to include a fourth step: The critical habitats used throughout the annual cycles of target or keystone species must be identified and adequately protected. Natural protected areas can be considered adequately designed only when sufficient area with a full complement of ecologically linked habitats is included.     

Effects of Tour Boats on the Behavior of Bottlenose Dolphins: Using Markov Chains to Model Anthropogenic Impacts

Abstract:   Nature-based tourism activities have been developing over the last decade, but it is still difficult to manage these activities sustainably. This sector is increasingly focusing on whales and dolphins in coastal communities, but the exact effects of these tourism activities are unclear. Markov chain modeling may help researchers assess the effects of tourism activities on the behavioral budget of small cetaceans. Matrix models have been used widely in population ecology to provide successful management guidelines. From June 2000 to August 2001, I collected information on the behavioral state of bottlenose dolphin (  Tursiops spp.) schools from a population residing in Doubtful Sound, Fiordland, New Zealand. In addition, I recorded the occurrence of boat and dolphin interactions. I then calculated the transition probabilities of passing from one behavior to another by using a first-order, time-discrete Markov chain model. Behavioral transitions during which a boat-dolphin interaction occurred were compiled in an "impact" chain. All other transitions were tallied in a control chain. I then quantified the effect of boat-dolphin interactions during behavioral transitions by comparing the behavioral transition probabilities of both chains. Socializing and resting behaviors were disrupted by interactions with boats to a level that raises concern. Both the duration of bouts and the total amount of time spent in both these behavioral states were substantially decreased. Dolphins were significantly more likely to be traveling after an interaction with a boat. However, the overall behavioral budget of the population was not significantly affected. Therefore, the bottlenose dolphin population seems to be able to sustain the present level of boat interactions because of its low intensity. More effort is needed to develop prognosis analyses in order to understand how the effect of boat interactions on dolphins changes with variations in intensity.     

Fast Ferry Traffic as a Qualitatively New Forcing Factor of Environmental Processes in Non-Tidal Sea Areas: A Case Study in Tallinn Bay,Baltic Sea

The impact of wake wash from high-speed ferries on the coastal environment in non-tidal seas is analysed in terms of wave energy and power, and properties of the largest waves. Shown is that hydrodynamic loads caused by heavy high-speed traffic may play a decisive role not only in low-energy coasts but also in certain areas with high wind wave activity. For example, ship-generated waves form, at least, about 5–8% from the total wave energy and about 18–35% from the wave power in the coastal areas of Tallinn Bay exposed to dominating winds. The periods of wake waves from high-speed ships frequently are much larger than dominating periods of wind waves. The leading waves typically have a height of about 1 m and a period of 10–15 s. Such waves extremely seldom occur in natural conditions in many regions of semi-enclosed seas. They cause unusually high hydrodynamic loads in the deeper part of the nearshore. The fast ferry traffic thus is a qualitatively new forcing component of vital impact on the local ecosystem. It is demonstrated that wakes from high-speed ferries may trigger considerable changes of the existing balance of coastal processes. Owing to their low decay rates combined with their exceptional compactness after crossing many kilometres of the sea surface, such wakes may cause considerable remote impact of the ship traffic. This feature has to be addressed in the analysis of the impact of harbours and associated ship traffic in the neighbourhood of vulnerable areas.     

Application of Genetic Bottleneck Testing to the Investigation of Amphibian Declines: a Case Study with Natterjack Toads

Abstract: Declines of amphibians are causing widespread concern and in some cases have been explained by factors such as climate change and the spread of microbial pathogens. A problem remains, however, in the unequivocal demonstration of decline in situations where populations may be undergoing natural fluctuations in abundance. We describe the application of a genetic test for bottlenecks ( Cornuet & Luikart 1996 ) that should distinguish between natural oscillations and true population declines. British natterjack toads (   Bufo calamita  ) provide examples of populations that have not declined in recent decades, populations that have declined, and populations in which trends are unclear. Microsatellite allele frequency data from these populations were tested for heterozygote excess and shifts in allele frequency distributions, and inferences from these computations about bottlenecks (i.e., persistently smaller population sizes than the recent means) were compared with demographic information. The genetic test correctly identified bottlenecks and should therefore prove useful in demonstrating whether amphibian declines have occurred where long-term demographic time series are not available.     

Value of Semi-Open Corridors for Simultaneously Connecting Open and Wooded Habitats: a Case Study with Ground Beetles

Abstract:  To counteract habitat fragmentation, the connectivity of a landscape should be enhanced. Corridors are thought to facilitate movement between disconnected patches of habitat, and linear strips of habitat connecting isolated patches are a popular type of corridor. On the other hand, the creation of new corridors can lead to fragmentation of the surrounding habitat. For example, heathland corridors connect patches of heathland and alternatively hedgerows connect patches of woodland. Nevertheless, these corridors themselves also break up previously connected patches of their surrounding habitat and in so doing fragment another type of habitat (heathland corridors fragment woodlands and woodland strips or hedgerows fragment heathlands). To overcome this challenge we propose the use of semi-open habitats (a mixture of heathland and woodland vegetation) as conservation corridors to enable dispersal of both stenotopic heathland and woodland species. We used two semi-open corridors with a mosaic of heathland and woody vegetation to investigate the efficiency of semi-open corridors for species dispersal and to assess whether these corridors might be a suitable approach for nature conservation. We conducted a mark-recapture study on three stenotopic flightless carabid beetles of heathlands and woodlands and took an inventory of all the carabid species in two semi-open corridors. Both methodological approaches showed simultaneous immigration of woodland and heathland species in the semi-open corridor. Detrended correspondence analysis showed a clear separation of the given habitats and affirmed that semi-open corridors are a good strategy for connecting woodlands and heathlands. The best means of creating and preserving semi-open corridors is probably through extensive grazing .     

Making a Model Meaningful to Coral Reef Managers in a Developing Nation: a Case Study of Overfishing and Rock Anchoring in Indonesia

Abstract: Most of the world's coral reefs line the coasts of developing nations, where impacts from intense and destructive fishing practices form critical conservation issues for managers. Overfishing of herbivorous fishes can cause phase shifts to macroalgal dominance, and fishers’ use of rocks as anchors lowers coral cover, giving further competitive advantage to macroalgae. Overfishing and anchoring have been studied extensively, but the role of their interaction in lowering coral reef resilience has not been quantified formally. We analyzed the combined effects of overfishing and rock anchoring on a range of reef habitat types—varying from high coral and low macroalgae cover to low coral and high macroalgae cover—in a marine park in Indonesia. We parameterized a model of coral and algal dynamics with three intensities of anchoring and fishing pressure. Results of the model indicated that damage caused by rock anchoring was equal to or possibly more devastating to coral reefs in the area than the impact of overfishing. This is an important outcome for local managers, who usually have the funds to distribute less‐damaging anchors, but normally are unable to patrol regularly and effectively enough to reduce the impact of overfishing. We translated model results into an interactive visual tool that allows managers to explore the benefits of reducing anchoring frequency and fishing pressure. The potential consequences of inaction were made clear: the likelihood that any of the reef habitats will be dominated in the future by macroalgae rather than corals depends on reducing anchoring frequency, fishing pressure, or both. The tool provides a platform for strengthened relationships between managers and conservationists and can facilitate the uptake of recommendations regarding resource allocation and management actions. Conservation efforts for coral reefs in developing nations are likely to benefit from transforming model projections of habitat condition into tools local managers can understand and interact with.