Post-development Auditing of EIA Predictive Techniques: A Spatial Analytical Approach

Despite widespread recognition that post-development auditing has the potential to provide feedback which could improve future Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), there remains a paucity of research which relates specifically to the evaluation of EIA predictive techniques, with even less progress in the development of audit methodologies. This paper describes a spatial analytical approach to post-development auditing that focuses upon the identification and analysis of the residual errors between the impacts predicted at a site using a particular predictive method and the actual impacts found to occur through monitoring. For three case studies, relevant impact predictions are tested (to determine the residual errors) and statistical models of the errors are developed in order to explore factors which may explain the performance of the predictive technique. The paper then considers the broader lessons and limitations that can be drawn out from the research both for auditing and EIA practice, including feedback on predictive techniques, the potential role of scoping decisions in generating errors in impact prediction, and the implications of uncertainty over future baseline conditions for auditing and impact prediction/interpretation.     

Using secondary data to analyse socio-economic impacts of water management actions

This paper provides an analysis of the socio-economic impacts of river restoration schemes, and is novel in considering how a wide range of socio-economic variables can be used to understand impacts on the entire resident population within an area. A control-impacted approach was applied to explore differences in socio-economic characteristics of areas within which a restoration scheme had been carried out compared to areas without such a scheme. The results show that significant differences exist between control and impacted areas for a range of socio-economic variables. However, due to constraints in the methods and the data available, there are currently limitations in the extent to which socio-economic impacts of river restoration schemes can be fully explored. Additional datasets that become available in the future may increase the ability to detect associations between improvements in the water environment and socio-economic benefits. However, whilst the secondary data used in this paper are potentially powerful, they should be used alongside other techniques for assessing the impacts of decisions as part of future frameworks to deliver sustainable water management.     

Socio-economic Impacts: Are They Still the Poor Relations in UK Environmental Statements?

This paper discusses the treatment of social and economic impacts within UK environmental impact assessment (EIA). Socio-economic effects have an uncertain status in EIA, guidance on their assessment is limited and their treatment is often partial and of poor quality. This has led some commentators to view socio-economic impacts as the 'poor relations' in EIA. The paper presents the results of a recent review of the socio-economic component of UK environmental statements (ESs), which provides information on the extent, scope, balance and quality of socio-economic impact treatment. The review reveals that, although most ESs include some information on socio-economic issues, coverage tends to be narrowly focused on a small number of--primarily beneficial economic--impact types. Quantification of socio-economic impacts is also rarely attempted. The review findings are compared with those of similar studies undertaken in the mid-1990s, and the paper concludes with some recommendations for EIA practitioners relating to the treatment of socio-economic impacts.     

Alternative approaches to flood mitigation: a case study of Bangladesh

Floods were by far the most damaging type of natural disasters during the 1990s, in terms of both human impacts and socio-economic losses. Vulnerability to flooding disasters around the world is almost always differentiated by the socio-economic conditions of different income groups in the disaster area. In general, the poorer the income group (or the country) the more vulnerable it is likely to be to the adverse impacts of floods. The article argues that Bangladesh is the world's most flood-prone developing country in terms of the relative socio-economic impacts of floods. While conventional flood control strategies tend to be based on structural engineering approaches—such as the construction of large-scale embankments, diversion canals and dams—this article argues that more emphasis should be given to alternative, non-structural measures. The main lesson from recent flooding disasters in Bangladesh is that, in the absence of expensive structural measures, many non-structural ones can go a long way towards reducing vulnerability to and mitigating the impacts of floods.     

Legislative Approaches to Drought Management

Droughts are a natural scourge with extremely serious socio-economic consequences, leading not only to human suffering and misery, but also to grave environmental deterioration. Some of the impacts of drought may be curbed through technological, economic and legal measures. This paper deals particularly with the last of these.
Legal measures are grouped according to their objectives, such as: the mitigation of drought impacts; the regulation of water use; the control of production and distribution of goods and services; the regulation of the relationship between man and the environment; and the promotion of general socio-economic change.
While developed countries have been able to manage production factors and promote, enact and enforce regulatory legislation, most developing countries face serious restrictions either to managing drought situations or to enforcing any kind of legislation intended to deal either with the impact of drought or with the artificial situations reinforcing these impacts.     

Using a geographical information system for monitoring space shuttle launches: Determining cumulative distribution of deposition and an empirical test of a spatial model

Space shuttle launches produce localized hydrochloric acid deposition. The interaction of solid rocket motor exhaust and deluge water released on the pad at the time of launch results in the formation of an exhaust cloud. The spatial pattern and extent of deposition from the launch cloud are predicted by the rocket exhaust effluent diffusion (REED) model. The actual pattern of deposition has been mapped by field surveys for each shuttle launch since 1981. In this paper we use a geographical information system (GIS) to compare model predictions with ground patterns for 49 shuttle launches. We also compile cumulative maps of deposition patterns needed to consider long-term impacts. The direction of launch cloud movement did not differ significantly from model predictions. The REED model overpredicted both the area that received deposition and the maximum distance from the launch pad that deposition occurred. Severe vegetation damage was restricted to near-field deposition areas within 1980 m north of each launch pad. Total area impacted from launches has been 87.0 ha around pad 39A and 52.9 ha around pad 39B. Far-field deposition has caused leaf spotting from acid droplets or aluminum oxide over a wider and more variable area than near-field. A total of 19,397 ha has received deposition, but 63.6% of this area has received deposition only one time and 92.2% not more than three times. GIS techniques provide means to test spatial models and compile information useful for assessing cumulative impacts.     

Monitoring and Post-auditing in Environmental Impact Assessment: A Review

Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is a procedure for predicting environmental impacts of projects prior to their development, while post-auditing seeks to assess the accuracy of such predictions. A literature review examines the need for post-auditing, highlighting several benefits to EIA performance that could arise if the results were effectively used. This reveals that, in practice, post-auditing activities are not widespread, and suggests reasons why this is so. An overview of post-audit findings from a survey of published studies is then presented, and it is concluded that there is much scope for raising the profile of post-auditing in EIA world-wide. Preliminary results from a recent UK post-auditing study based on eight projects are described. Information on impact predictions was gathered and compared with actual impacts. A total of 366 impact predictions were made of which 78% were qualitative in nature; 57% of the predictions were auditable and of these nearly three-quarters were accurate. Reasons for inauditability were ascertained including, for all cases, a lack of data or unsuitable information.     

Auditing the Assessment of the Environmental Impacts of Planning Projects

This paper presents the results from a post-auditing study-a comparison of the predictions of environmental impacts of projects made in environmental statements prior to developmentwith those that actually occurred upon or after development. The purpose of post-auditing is to provide an analysis of prediction performance in environmental impact assessment and thus to improve future practice by learning from experience. By means of a combination of site visits, interviews and document scrutiny, 865 predictions from 28 UK projects granted planning permission were examined. Of these, 488 (56%) were auditable, of which 383 (79%) were deemed 'accurate' or 'nearly accurate' and 105 (21%) 'inaccurate'. The remaining 377 (44%) predictions were not auditable, the main reasons being lack of data, vague or ambiguous predictions and time dependency.There were only six unpredicted impacts. The study reveals some encouraging findings, but also a number of discouraging ones, which indicate the need to increase both enthusiasm for, and implementationof, post-auditing activities. Several suggestions are made to help achieve these objectives.     

Predicting Periphyton Cover Frequency Distributions across New Zealand's Rivers

Regression models of mean and mean annual maximum (MAM) cover were derived for two categories of periphyton cover (filaments and mats) using 22 years of monthly monitoring data from 78 river sites across New Zealand. Explanatory variables were derived from observations of water quality variables, hydrology, shade, bed sediment grain size, temperature, and solar radiation. The root mean square errors of these models were large (75‐95% of the mean of the estimated values). The at‐site frequency distributions of periphyton cover were approximated by the exponential distribution, which has the mean cover as its single parameter. Independent predictions of cover distributions at all sites were calculated using the mean predicted by the regression model and the theoretical exponential distribution. The probability that cover exceeds specified thresholds and estimates of MAM cover, based on the predicted distributions, had large uncertainties (~80‐100%) at the site scale. However, predictions aggregated by classes of an environmental classification accurately predicted the proportion of sites for which cover exceeded nominated criteria in the classes. The models are useful for assessing broad‐scale patterns in periphyton cover and for estimating changes in cover with changes in nutrients, hydrological regime, and light.     

Cumulative environmental impacts and integrated coastal management: the case of Xiamen, China

This paper examines the assessment of cumulative environmental impacts and the implementation of integrated coastal management within the harbour of Xiamen, China, an urban region in which the coastal zone is under increasing pressure as a result of very rapid economic growth. The first stage of analysis incorporates components of a cumulative effects assessment, including (a) identification of sources of environmental impacts, notably industrial expansion, port development, shipping, waste disposal, aquaculture and coastal construction, (b) selection of a set of valued ecosystem components, focusing on circulation and siltation, water quality, sediment, the benthic community, and mangrove forests, and (c) use of a set of key indicators to examine cumulative impacts arising from the aggregate of human activities. In the second stage of analysis, the paper describes and assesses the development of an institutional framework for integrated coastal management in Xiamen, one that combines policy and planning (including legislative and enforcement mechanisms) with scientific and monitoring mechanisms (including an innovative 'marine functional zoning' system). The paper concludes that the integrated coastal management framework in Xiamen has met all relevant requirements for 'integration' as laid out in the literature, and has explicitly incorporated consideration of cumulative impacts within its management and monitoring processes.     

Modeling pollutant release from a surface source during rainfall runoff

Though runoff from manure spread fields is recognized as an important mode of nonpoint-source pollution, there are no models that mechanistically describe transport from a field-spread manure-type source. A mechanistic, physically based model for pollutant release from a surface source, such as field-spread manure, was hypothesized, laboratory tested, and field-applied. The primary objective of this study was to demonstrate the potential applicability of a mechanistic model to pollutant release from surface sources. The laboratory investigation used stable sources and a conservative "pollutant" (KCl) so that the dynamic effects of source dissolution and chemical transformations could be ignored and transport processes isolated. The field investigation used runoff and soluble reactive phosphorus (SP) data collected from a dairy-manure-spread field in the Cannonsville watershed in the Catskills region of New York State. The model predictions corroborated well with observations of runoff and pollutant delivery in both the laboratory and the field. "Pollutant" release from surface sources was generally predicted within 11% of laboratory KCl measurements and field SP observations. Laboratory flume runoff predictions with 15 and 26% errors for 25 and 15 mm h(-1) simulated rainfall intensity experiments, respectively, represented root mean square errors of less than 0.2 mLs(-1). A 26% error was calculated for overland flow predictions in the field, which translated into approximately a 39 mLs(-1) error. Results suggest that the hypothesized model satisfactorily represents the primary mechanisms in pollutant release from surface sources.     

A biome-scale assessment of the impact of invasive alien plants on ecosystem services in South Africa

This paper reports an assessment of the current and potential impacts of invasive alien plants on selected ecosystem services in South Africa. We used data on the current and potential future distribution of 56 invasive alien plant species to estimate their impact on four services (surface water runoff, groundwater recharge, livestock production and biodiversity) in five terrestrial biomes. The estimated reductions in surface water runoff as a result of current invasions were >3000 million m³ (about 7% of the national total), most of which is from the fynbos (shrubland) and grassland biomes; the potential reductions would be more than eight times greater if invasive alien plants were to occupy the full extent of their potential range. Impacts on groundwater recharge would be less severe, potentially amounting to approximately 1.5% of the estimated maximum reductions in surface water runoff. Reductions in grazing capacity as a result of current levels of invasion amounted to just over 1% of the potential number of livestock that could be supported. However, future impacts could increase to 71%. A ‘biodiversity intactness index’ (the remaining proportion of pre-modern populations) ranged from 89% to 71% for the five biomes. With the exception of the fynbos biome, current invasions have almost no impact on biodiversity intactness. Under future levels of invasion, however, these intactness values decrease to around 30% for the savanna, fynbos and grassland biomes, but to even lower values (13% and 4%) for the two karoo biomes. Thus, while the current impacts of invasive alien plants are relatively low (with the exception of those on surface water runoff), the future impacts could be very high. While the errors in these estimates are likely to be substantial, the predicted impacts are sufficiently large to suggest that there is serious cause for concern.     

Modeling the costs and benefits of dam construction from a multidisciplinary perspective

Although the benefits of dam construction are numerous, particularly in the context of climate change and growing global demand for electricity, recent experience has shown that many dams have serious negative environmental, human, and political consequences. Despite an extensive literature documenting the benefits and costs of dams from a single disciplinary perspective, few studies have simultaneously evaluated the distribution of biophysical, socio-economic, and geopolitical implications of dams. To meet the simultaneous demands for water, energy, and environmental protection well into the future, a broader view of dams is needed. We thus propose a new tool for evaluating the relative costs and benefits of dam construction based on multi-objective planning techniques. The Integrative Dam Assessment Modeling (IDAM) tool is designed to integrate biophysical, socio-economic, and geopolitical perspectives into a single cost/benefit analysis of dam construction. Each of 27 different impacts of dam construction is evaluated both objectively (e.g., flood protection, as measured by RYI years) and subjectively (i.e., the valuation of said flood protection) by a team of decision-makers. By providing a visual representation of the various costs and benefits associated with two or more dams, the IDAM tool allows decision-makers to evaluate alternatives and to articulate priorities associated with a dam project, making the decision process about dams more informed and more transparent. For all of these reasons, we believe that the IDAM tool represents an important evolutionary step in dam evaluation.     

Pluralism,The Ethical Matrix,and Coming to Conclusions

The ethical matrix approach was developed by Prof Ben Mepham and his colleagues at the University of Nottingham in the early 1990s. Since then the approach has received increasing attention and has been used by several researchers in different projects related to assessing ethical impacts of different food production technologies and other policy options of societal concern. The ethical matrix is sometimes understood simply as a checklist of ethical concerns, but might also be seen as a guide to coming to conclusions on moral questions. The problem I discuss in this paper relates to how using the ethical matrix method as a decision guide can be combined with respecting pluralism. The aim of the paper is to suggest a framework making it possible to – at the same time – enhance public justification of judgments and respect pluralism. I argue that pluralism is fundamental to the ethical matrix approach; I distinguish between intuitionist principled pluralism and societal value pluralism; and I show how both kinds of pluralism imply restrictions on how conclusions can be made. No substantive moral decision principles can be allowed. Still, I argue, decision principles of a more epistemological or procedural character can be acceptable even within pluralism. The pragmatist principle of inquiry is defended as an account of moral problem solving compatible with both principled pluralism and value pluralism. When an ethical matrix is used within such a participatory inquiry process substantive conclusions can be drawn.     

Artisan fishers’ perception of climate change and disasters in coastal Bangladesh

Climate change is affecting fishing communities across Bangladesh. While work has been undertaken to investigate the nature of these impacts, understanding how fishers perceive climate change at a local level, especially within developing countries, is crucial. This paper presents the results of a three-year study of the contextual determinants and dimensions of artisanal fishing community perceptions about climate change in coastal Bangladesh. Results of this study indicate that geographic characteristics, socio-economic status, worldviews, tradition, observations and disaster experiences are important determinants for shaping fishers’ perceptions about climate change. Fishers also demonstrate a long-standing tradition of risk adaptation strategies, but do not link them to climate change. We argue that these perceptions provide ideas for how to form appropriate climate responses at local levels not only in Bangladesh but other developing countries.     

A note on the use of the analytic hierarchy process for environmental impact assessment

Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is an intrinsically complex multi-dimensional process, involving multiple criteria and multiple actors. Multi-criteria methods can serve as useful decision aids for carrying out the EIA. This paper proposes the use of a multi-criteria technique, namely the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), for the purpose. AHP has the flexibility to combine quantitative and qualitative factors, to handle different groups of actors, to combine the opinions expressed by many experts, and can help in stakeholder analysis. The main shortcomings of AHP and some modifications to it to overcome the shortcomings are briefly described. Finally, the use of AHP is illustrated for a case study involving socio-economic impact assessment. In this case study, AHP has been used for capturing the perceptions of stakeholders on the relative severity of different socio-economic impacts, which will help the authorities in prioritizing their environmental management plan, and can also help in allocating the budget available for mitigating adverse socio-economic impacts.     

Spatially Varying Determinants of Farmland Conversion Across Qiantang Watershed, China

This paper employed geographically weighted regression (GWR) to characterize the determinants of farmland conversion at administrative scale between 1994 and 2003 across Qiantang watershed, China. Six determinants were identified: total area of forest, distance to highway, distance to second road, distance to river, population, and gross domestic product. Relationships between these identified determinants and farmland conversion showed great spatial non-stationarity, since their character, nature, and strength varied significantly across space. Typically, for cities whose development was heavily relied on road infrastructure development, the impacts of “distance to second road” and “distance to river” was negative. However, in mountainous areas, the restriction of terrain factors led to positive impacts from these two variables. For areas undergoing rapid socio-economic development, farmland conversion was accelerated by population growth and economic development. However, for more urbanized regions, a slow-down rate of farmland conversion would be expected. Our study highlighted that the problem of spatial non-stationarity should be addressed when qualifying the determinants of farmland conversion. Linking our results within the context of farmland protection, we argue that implementing local-specific land management practices, instead of the current one-size-fits-all framework, is the key for the success of farmland protection in China.     

Channel Evolution Models as Predictors of Sediment Yield

This paper recounts our predictions of channel evolution of the Black Vermillion River (BVR) and sediment yields associated with the evolutionary sequence. Channel design parameters allowed for the prediction of stable channel form and coincident sediment yields. Measured erosion rates and basin‐specific bank erosion curves aided in prediction of the stream channel succession time frame. This understanding is critical in determining how and when to mitigate a myriad of instability consequences. The BVR drains approximately 1,062 km² in the glaciated region of Northeast Kansas. Once tallgrass prairie, the basin has been modified extensively for agricultural production. As such, channelization has shortened the river by nearly 26 km from pre‐European dimensions; shortening combined with the construction of numerous flow‐through structures have produced dramatic impacts on discharge and sediment dynamics. Nine stream reaches were established within three main tributaries of the BVR in 2007. Reaches averaged 490 m in length, were surveyed, and assessed for channel stability, while resurveys were conducted annually through 2010 to monitor change. This work illustrates the association of current stream state, in‐channel sediment contributions, and prediction of future erosion rates based on stream evolution informed by multiple models. Our findings suggest greater and more rapid sedimentation of a federal reservoir than has been predicted using standard sediment prediction methods.     

Simulating pesticide leaching and runoff in rice paddies with the RICEWQ-VADOFT model

There is a current need to simulate leaching and runoff of pesticide from rice (Oryza sativa L.) paddies for assessing environmental impacts on a valuable agricultural system. The objective of this study was to develop a model for determining predicted environmental concentration (PEC) in soil, runoff, and ground water through the linkage of two models, rice water quality model (RICEWQ) and vadose zone transport model (VADOFT), to simulate pesticide fate and transport within a rice paddy and underlying soil profile. Model performance was evaluated with a field data set obtained from a 2-yr field experiment in 1997 and 1998 in northern Italy. The predictions of amount of pesticide running off from the paddy field and accumulating in the paddy sediment were in agreement with measured values. Leaching into the vadose zone accounted for approximately 19% of the applied dose, but only a small amount of chemical (<0.1%) was predicted to reach ground water at a 5-m depth due to sorption and transformation in the soil. The permeability of the soil and the water management practices in the paddy field were shown to have a strong influence on pesticide fate. These factors need to be well characterized in the field if model predictions are to be successful. The combined model developed in this work is an effective tool for exposure assessments for soil, surface water, and ground water, in the particular conditions of rice cultivation.     

Integrated Modular Modeling of Water and Nutrients From Point and Nonpoint Sources in the Patuxent River Watershed1

Abstract: We present a simple modular landscape simulation model that is based on a watershed modeling framework in which different sets of processes occurring in a watershed can be simulated separately with different models. The model consists of three loosely coupled submodels: a rainfall‐runoff model (TOPMODEL) for runoff generation in a subwatershed, a nutrient model for estimation of nutrients from nonpoint sources in a subwatershed, and a stream network model for integration of point and nonpoint sources in the routing process. The model performance was evaluated using monitoring data in the watershed of the Patuxent River, a tributary to the Chesapeake Bay in Maryland, from July 1997 through August 1999. Despite its simplicity, the landscape model predictions of streamflow, and sediment and nutrient loads were as good as or better than those of the Hydrological Simulation Program‐Fortran model, one of the most widely used comprehensive watershed models. The landscape model was applied to predict discharges of water, sediment, silicate, organic carbon, nitrate, ammonium, organic nitrogen, total nitrogen, organic phosphorus, phosphate, and total phosphorus from the Patuxent watershed to its estuary. The predicted annual water discharge to the estuary was very close to the measured annual total in terms of percent errors for both years of the study period (≤2%). The model predictions for loads of nutrients were also good (20‐30%) or very good (<20%) with exceptions of sediment (40%), phosphate (36%), and organic carbon (53%) for Year 1.