Particulate carbon measurements in California's San Joaquin Valley

Aerosol carbon sampling methods and biases were evaluated during the California Regional PM10/PM2.5 Air Quality Study (CRPAQS) and Fresno Supersite programs. PM2.5 sampling was conducted using Desert Research Institute (DRI) sequential filter samplers (SFS) from December 1999 through February 2001 at two urban sites (Fresno and Bakersfield), one regional transport site (Angiola), and two boundary sites (Bethel Island and Sierra Nevada Foothills) during CRPAQS in the San Joaquin Valley (SJV). Additional filter-based sampling was done in Fresno as part of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Supersites program. Organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) concentrations were higher during winter (December-February) than summer (June-August) and this trend was most pronounced at Fresno and Bakersfield. OC and EC displayed similar diurnal trends during winter and summer at Fresno and during winter at Angiola. The diurnal pattern at Angiola reflected the transport of secondary pollutants to the site. Collocated measurements of OC and EC on undenuded quartz-fiber filters were made at Fresno with the DRI SFS and the Andersen FRM and RAAS samplers. All average differences in OC between samplers were less than their respective measurement uncertainties. Positive and negative OC biases were evaluated at Fresno using the Andersen RAAS sampler with carbon-denuded and undenuded channels with Teflon-membrane and quartz-fiber filter pairs. Differences between the denuded particle OC and that obtained by subtracting the quartz-behind-Teflon or quartz-behind-quartz OC from the undenuded quartz-fiber front filter were less than twice their measurement uncertainties in most cases. Particulate OC in the denuded channel agreed most closely with the difference between undenuded front and backup quartz-fiber OC.     

Processes influencing secondary aerosol formation in the San Joaquin Valley during winter

Air quality data collected in the California Regional PM10/ PM(2.5) Air Quality Study (CRPAQS) are analyzed to qualitatively assess the processes affecting secondary aerosol formation in the San Joaquin Valley (SJV). This region experiences some of the highest fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)) mass concentrations in California (< or = 188 microg/m3 24-hr average), and secondary aerosol components (as a group) frequently constitute over half of the fine aerosol mass in winter. The analyses are based on 15 days of high-frequency filter and canister measurements and several months of wintertime continuous gas and aerosol measurements. The phase-partitioning of nitrogen oxide (NO(x))-related nitrogen species and carbonaceous species shows that concentrations of gaseous precursor species are far more abundant than measured secondary aerosol nitrate or estimated secondary organic aerosols. Comparisons of ammonia and nitric acid concentrations indicate that ammonium nitrate formation is limited by the availability of nitric acid rather than ammonia. Time-resolved aerosol nitrate data collected at the surface and on a 90-m tower suggest that both the daytime and nighttime nitric acid formation pathways are active, and entrainment of aerosol nitrate formed aloft at night may explain the spatial homogeneity of nitrate in the SJV. NO(x) and volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions plus background O3 levels are expected to determine NO(x) oxidation and nitric acid production rates, which currently control the ammonium nitrate levels in the SJV. Secondary organic aerosol formation is significant in winter, especially in the Fresno urban area. Formation of secondary organic aerosol is more likely limited by the rate of VOC oxidation than the availability of VOC precursors in winter.     

Designing and Managing the San Joaquin Valley Air Quality Study

The field measurement phase of the San Joaquin Valley Air Quality Study, which was conducted in the summer of 1990, was the largest and most sophisticated study of its kind ever conducted in this country. The San Joaquin Valley has the nation’s second worst overall air quality problem and is using the study results to conduct regional modeling to refine its control strategies. The study began in 1985 and will continue into the mid-1990s. The origins of the study, and the manner in which it is being funded and administered, reflect a unique and highly successful collaboration among several levels of government and the private sector. The temporary organizational structure formed to manage the study sets an interesting precedent for how political-level leaders can work effectively with the scientific community to conduct a long term technical study.     

Future Impacts of Distributed Power Generation on Ambient Ozone and Particulate Matter Concentrations in the San Joaquin Valley of California

ABSTRACT

Distributed power generation—electricity generation that is produced by many small stationary power generators distributed throughout an urban air basin—has the potential to supply a significant portion of electricity in future years. As a result, distributed generation may lead to increased pollutant emissions within an urban air basin, which could adversely affect air quality. However, the use of combined heating and power with distributed generation may reduce the energy consumption for space heating and air conditioning, resulting in a net decrease of pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions. This work used a systematic approach based on land-use geographical information system data to determine the spatial and temporal distribution of distributed generation emissions in the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin of California and simulated the potential air quality impacts using state-of-the-art three-dimensional computer models. The evaluation of the potential market penetration of distributed generation focuses on the year 2023. In general, the air quality impacts of distributed generation were found to be small due to the restrictive 2007 California Air Resources Board air emission standards applied to all distributed generation units and due to the use of combined heating and power. Results suggest that if distributed generation units were allowed to emit at the current Best Available Control Technology standards (which are less restrictive than the 2007 California Air Resources Board standards), air quality impacts of distributed generation could compromise compliance with the federal 8-hr average ozone standard in the region.

IMPLICATIONS The San Joaquin Valley is a fast growing region that demands increasing power generation to sustain the economic development, and at the same time it is one of the worst polluted areas in the United States. Hence, the region demands alternatives that minimize the air quality impacts of power generation. This paper addresses the air quality impacts of distributed generation of power, an alternative to central power generation that can potentially reduce greenhouse gas and pollutant emissions throughout the United States.     

Dynamic modeling of organophosphate pesticide load in surface water in the northern San Joaquin Valley watershed of California

The hydrology, sediment, and pesticide transport components of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) were evaluated on the northern San Joaquin Valley watershed of California. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients for monthly stream flow and sediment load ranged from 0.49 to 0.99 over the watershed during the study period of 1992-2005. The calibrated SWAT model was applied to simulate fate and transport processes of two organophosphate pesticides of diazinon and chlorpyrifos at watershed scale. The model generated satisfactory predictions of dissolved pesticide loads relative to the monitoring data. The model also showed great success in capturing spatial patterns of dissolved diazinon and chlorpyrifos loads according to the soil properties and landscape morphology over the large agricultural watershed. This study indicated that curve number was the major factor influencing the hydrology while pesticide fate and transport were mainly affected by surface runoff and pesticide application and in the study area.     

Transport and dispersion during wintertime particulate matter episodes in the San Joaquin Valley, California

Data analysis and modeling were performed to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of wintertime transport and dispersion processes and the impact of these processes on particulate matter (PM) concentrations in the California San Joaquin Valley (SJV). Radar wind profiler (RWP) and radio acoustic sounding system (RASS) data collected from 18 sites throughout Central California were used to estimate hourly mixing heights for a 3-month period and to create case studies of high-resolution diagnostic wind fields, which were used for trajectory and dispersion analyses. Data analyses show that PM episodes were characterized by an upper-level ridge of high pressure that generally produced light winds through the entire depth of the atmospheric boundary layer and low mixing heights compared with nonepisode days. Peak daytime mixing heights during episodes were -400 m above ground level (agl) compared with -800 m agl during nonepisodes. These episode/nonepisode differences were observed throughout the SJV. Dispersion modeling indicates that the range of influence of primary PM emitted in major population centers within the SJV ranged from -15 to 50 km. Trajectory analyses revealed that little intrabasin pollutant transport occurred among major population centers in the SJV; however, interbasin transport from the northern SJV and Sacramento regions into the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) was often observed. In addition, this analysis demonstrates the usefulness of integrating RWP/RASS measurements into data analyses and modeling to improve the understanding of meteorological processes that impact pollution, such as aloft transport and boundary layer evolution.     

Influence of synoptic and mesoscale meteorology on ozone pollution potential for San Joaquin Valley of California

The distribution of historical ozone levels for a region is tabulated as a function of its prevailing synoptic and mesoscale influences. Meteorological patterns are determined sequentially from extended records of hourly surface wind measurements sampling relevant low-level flows. A visualization method is presented to readily indicate the likelihoods for exceedances to occur under a variety of meteorological conditions. The study domain is San Joaquin Valley (SJV) of California, which is divided into three subregions (North, Central, and South). Each day from May–October of 1996–2004 is labeled using synoptic (single-day) and mesoscale (intra-day) patterns. Emissions levels are assumed roughly constant for this period following the introduction of reformulated gasoline to California. Synoptic motions largely control the regional SJV ozone pollution potential; the same single-day patterns are identified for all three SJV subregions. Additionally, a unique mesoscale flow feature is identified in each subregion that strongly affects its ozone levels: flows through minor Coast Range gaps for N-SJV, the Fresno Eddy for C-SJV, and flows through Mojave Pass for S-SJV. The strength of each mesoscale feature is characterized using 1-h surface u or v wind components that explain local ozone pollution potentials.     

Economic Assessment of the Effects of Air Pollution on Agricultural Crops in the San Joaquin Valley

Physical and economic impacts of 1978 ambient levels of ozone and sulfur dioxide on 33 crops In the San Joaquin Valley are estimated. The field data regression approach Is used and evaluated for estimating yield losses. The effects of alternative air pollution measures and regression functional forms are evaluated. An economic model is employed that accounts for both farm and market responses to yield improvements from reduced air pollution. Economic damages were estimated to exceed $100 million in 1978 with the biggest losers being the producers of cotton and producers and consumers of grapes, a crop that has heretofore been Ignored in agricultural assessments of pollution damage.     

Resolving the interactions between population density and air pollution emissions controls in the San Joaquin Valley, USA

The effectiveness of emissions control programs designed to reduce concentrations of airborne particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 microm (PM2.5) in California's San Joaquin Valley was studied in the year 2030 under three growth scenarios: low, medium, and high population density. Base-case inventories for each choice of population density were created using a coupled emissions modeling system that simultaneously considered interactions between land use and transportation, area source, and point source emissions. The ambient PM2.5 response to each combination of population density and emissions control was evaluated using a regional chemical transport model over a 3-week winter stagnation episode. Comparisons between scenarios were based on regional average and population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations. In the absence of any emissions control program, population-weighted concentrations of PM2.5 in the future San Joaquin Valley are lowest undergrowth scenarios that emphasize low population density. A complete ban on wood burning and a 90% reduction in emissions from food cooking operations and diesel engines must occur before medium- to high-density growth scenarios result in lower population-weighted concentrations of PM2.5. These trends partly reflect the fact that existing downtown urban cores that naturally act as anchor points for new high-density growth in the San Joaquin Valley are located close to major transportation corridors for goods movement. Adding growth buffers around transportation corridors had little impact in the current analysis, since the 8-km resolution of the chemical transport model already provided an artificial buffer around major emissions sources. Assuming that future emissions controls will greatly reduce or eliminate emissions from residential wood burning, food cooking, and diesel engines, the 2030 growth scenario using "as-planned" (medium) population density achieves the lowest population-weighted average PM2.5 concentration in the future San Joaquin Valley during a severe winter stagnation event. Implications: The San Joaquin Valley is one of the most heavily polluted air basins in the United States that are projected to experience strong population growth in the coming decades. The best plan to improve air quality in the region combines medium- or high-density population growth with rigorous emissions controls. In the absences of controls, high-density growth leads to increased population exposure to PM2.5 compared with low-density growth scenarios (urban sprawl).     

Resolving the interactions between population density and air pollution emissions controls in the San Joaquin Valley,USA

The effectiveness of emissions control programs designed to reduce concentrations of airborne particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm (PM_2.5) in California's San Joaquin Valley was studied in the year 2030 under three growth scenarios: low, medium, and high population density. Base-case inventories for each choice of population density were created using a coupled emissions modeling system that simultaneously considered interactions between land use and transportation, area source, and point source emissions. The ambient PM_2.5 response to each combination of population density and emissions control was evaluated using a regional chemical transport model over a 3-week winter stagnation episode. Comparisons between scenarios were based on regional average and population-weighted PM_2.5 concentrations. In the absence of any emissions control program, population-weighted concentrations of PM_2.5 in the future San Joaquin Valley are lowest under growth scenarios that emphasize low population density. A complete ban on wood burning and a 90% reduction in emissions from food cooking operations and diesel engines must occur before medium- to high-density growth scenarios result in lower population-weighted concentrations of PM_2.5. These trends partly reflect the fact that existing downtown urban cores that naturally act as anchor points for new high-density growth in the San Joaquin Valley are located close to major transportation corridors for goods movement. Adding growth buffers around transportation corridors had little impact in the current analysis, since the 8-km resolution of the chemical transport model already provided an artificial buffer around major emissions sources.

Assuming that future emissions controls will greatly reduce or eliminate emissions from residential wood burning, food cooking, and diesel engines, the 2030 growth scenario using “as-planned” (medium) population density achieves the lowest population-weighted average PM_2.5 concentration in the future San Joaquin Valley during a severe winter stagnation event.

Implications: The San Joaquin Valley is one of the most heavily polluted air basins in the United States that are projected to experience strong population growth in the coming decades. The best plan to improve air quality in the region combines medium- or high-density population growth with rigorous emissions controls. In the absences of controls, high-density growth leads to increased population exposure to PM_2.5 compared with low-density growth scenarios (urban sprawl).     

Organic marker compounds in surface soils of crop fields from the San Joaquin Valley fugitive dust characterization study

Fugitive dust from the erosion of arid and fallow land, after harvest and during agricultural activities, can at times be the dominant source of airborne particulate matter. In order to assess the source contributions to a given site, chemical mass balance (CMB) modeling is typically used together with source-specific profiles for organic and inorganic constituents. Yet, the mass balance closure can be achieved only if emission profiles for all major sources are considered. While a higher degree of mass balance closure has been achieved by adding individual organic marker compounds to elements, ions, EC, and organic carbon (OC), major source profiles for fugitive dust are not available. Consequently, neither the exposure of the population living near fugitive dust sources from farm land, nor its chemical composition is known. Surface soils from crop fields are enriched in plant detritus from both above and below ground plant parts; therefore, surface soil dust contains natural organic compounds from the crops and soil microbiota. Here, surface soils derived from fields growing cotton, safflower, tomato, almonds, and grapes have been analyzed for more than 180 organic compounds, including natural lipids, saccharides, pesticides, herbicides, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH). The major result of this study is that selective biogenically derived organic compounds are suitable markers of fugitive dust from major agricultural crop fields in the San Joaquin Valley. Aliphatic homologs exhibit the typical biogenic signatures of epicuticular plant waxes and are therefore indicative of fugitive dust emissions and mechanical abrasion of wax protrusions from leaf surfaces. Saccharides, among which α- and β-glucose, sucrose, and mycose show the highest concentrations in surface soils, have been proposed to be generic markers for fugitive dust from cultivated land. Similarly, steroids are strongly indicative of fugitive dust. Yet, triterpenoids reveal the most pronounced distribution differences for all types of cultivated soils examined here and are by themselves powerful markers for fugitive dust that allow differentiation between the types of crops cultivated. PAHs are also found in some surface soils, as well as persistent pesticides, e.g., DDE, Fosfall, and others.     

Spatial trends and impairment assessment of mercury in sport fish in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta watershed

A three-year study was conducted to examine mercury in sport fish from the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta. More than 4000 fish from 31 species were collected and analyzed for total mercury in individual muscle filets. Largemouth bass and striped bass were the most contaminated, averaging 0.40 μg/g, while redear sunfish, bluegill and rainbow trout exhibited the lowest (<0.15 μg/g) concentrations. Spatial variation in mercury was evaluated with an analysis of covariance model, which accounted for variability due to fish size and regional hydrology. Significant regional differences in mercury were apparent in size-standardized largemouth bass, with concentrations on the Cosumnes and Mokelumne rivers significantly higher than the central and western Delta. Significant prey–predator mercury correlations were also apparent, which may explain a significant proportion of the spatial variation in the watershed.     

Biogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in sediments of the San Joaquin River in California (USA), and current paradigms on their formation

Biogenic perylene and higher plant pentacyclic triterpenoid-derived alkylated and partially aromatized tetra- and pentacyclic derivatives of chrysene (3,4,7-trimethyl- and 3,3,7-trimethyl-1,2,3,4-tetrahydrochrysene, THC) and picene (1,2,9-trimethyl- and 2,2,9-trimethyl-1,2,3,4-tetrahydropicene, THP) were two- to four-fold more abundant than pyrogenic PAH in two sediment cores from the San Joaquin River in Northern California (USA). In a core from Venice Cut (VC), located in the river, PAH concentrations varied little downcore and the whole-core PAH concentration (biogenics?+?pyrogenics) was 250.6?±?73.7 ng g^?1 dw; biogenic PAH constituted 67?±?4 % of total PAH. THC were 26?±?9 % of total biogenic PAH, THP were 36?±?7 %, and perylene was 38?±?7 %. PAH distributions in a core from Franks Tract (FT), a former wetland that was converted to an agricultural tract in the late 1800s and flooded in 1938, were more variable. Surface sediments were dominated by pyrogenic PAH so that biogenic PAH were only ~30 % of total PAH. Deeper in the core, biogenic PAH constituted 60–93 % of total PAH; THC, THP and perylene were 31?±?28 %, 24?±?32 %, and 45?±?36 % of biogenic PAH. At 100–103 cm depth, THP constituted 80 % of biogenic PAH and at 120–123 cm perylene was 95 % of biogenic PAH. Current concepts related to precursors and transformation processes responsible for the diagenetic generation of perylene and triterpenoid-derived PAH are discussed. Distributions of biogenic PAH in VC and FT sediments suggest that they may not form diagenetically within these sediments but rather might be delivered pre-formed from the river’s watershed.     

Sensitivity of agricultural runoff loads to rising levels of CO2 and climate change in the San Joaquin Valley watershed of California

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to assess the impact of climate change on sediment, nitrate, phosphorus and pesticide (diazinon and chlorpyrifos) runoff in the San Joaquin watershed in California. This study used modeling techniques that include variations of CO₂, temperature, and precipitation to quantify these responses. Precipitation had a greater impact on agricultural runoff compared to changes in either CO₂ concentration or temperature. Increase of precipitation by ±10% and ±20% generally changed agricultural runoff proportionally. Solely increasing CO₂ concentration resulted in an increase in nitrate, phosphorus, and chlorpyrifos yield by 4.2, 7.8, and 6.4%, respectively, and a decrease in sediment and diazinon yield by 6.3 and 5.3%, respectively, in comparison to the present-day reference scenario. Only increasing temperature reduced yields of all agricultural runoff components. The results suggest that agricultural runoff in the San Joaquin watershed is sensitive to precipitation, temperature, and CO₂ concentration changes.     

Sulfur processing in the marine atmospheric boundary layer: A review and critical assessment of modeling uncertainties

Sulfur is an extremely motile and vital element in the Earth's biogeochemical environment, one whose active redox chemistry maintains small reservoirs in the atmosphere and biosphere yet large fluxes through both. Essential for life, intimately linked to the climate state, and an important component of air quality, sulfur and its transport and processing in the atmosphere have been the subject of active research for several decades. This review article describes the current state of our understanding of the atmospheric sulfur cycle, focusing on the marine atmospheric boundary layer, with the aim of identifying the largest roots of uncertainty that most inhibit accurate simulation of sulfur cycling in the atmosphere. An overview of the emissions by phytoplankton and shipping, dispersion and entrainment in the marine boundary layer, and chemical processing by aerosols, clouds, and dry deposition is presented. Analysis of 20 contemporary modeling studies suggests that the greatest ambiguity in global sulfur cycling derives from (in descending order) wet deposition of aerosol sulfate, dry deposition of sulfur dioxide to the Earth's surface, and the heterogeneous oxidation of SO₂ in aerosols and clouds.     

Wintertime vertical variations in particulate matter (PM) and precursor concentrations in the San Joaquin Valley during the California Regional Coarse PM/Fine PM Air Quality Study

Air quality monitoring was conducted at a rural site with a tower in the middle of California's San Joaquin Valley (SJV) and at elevated sites in the foothills and mountains surrounding the SJV for the California Regional PM10/ PM2.5 Air Quality Study. Measurements at the surface and n a tower at 90 m were collected in Angiola, CA, from December 2000 through February 2001 and included hourly black carbon (BC), particle counts from optical particle counters, nitric oxide, ozone, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and direction. Boundary site measurements were made primarily using 24-hr integrated particulate matter (PM) samples. These measurements were used to understand the vertical variations of PM and PM precursors, the effect of stratification in the winter on concentrations and chemistry aloft and at the surface, and the impact of aloft-versus-surface transport on PM concentrations. Vertical variations of concentrations differed among individual species. The stratification may be important to atmospheric chemistry processes, particularly nighttime nitrate formation aloft, because NO2 appeared to be oxidized by ozone in the stratified aloft layer. Additionally, increases in accumulation-mode particle concentrations in the aloft layer during a fine PM (PM2.5) episode corresponded with increases in aloft nitrate, demonstrating the likelihood of an aloft nighttime nitrate formation mechanism. Evidence of local transport at the surface and regional transport aloft was found; transport processes also varied among the species. The distribution of BC appeared to be regional, and BC was often uniformly mixed vertically. Overall, the combination of time-resolved tower and surface measurements provided important insight into PM stratification, formation, and transport.     

Air emission inventories in North America: a critical assessment

Although emission inventories are the foundation of air quality management and have supported substantial improvements in North American air quality, they have a number of shortcomings that can potentially lead to ineffective air quality management strategies. Major reductions in the largest emissions sources have made accurate inventories of previously minor sources much more important to the understanding and improvement of local air quality. Changes in manufacturing processes, industry types, vehicle technologies, and metropolitan infrastructure are occurring at an increasingly rapid pace, emphasizing the importance of inventories that reflect current conditions. New technologies for measuring source emissions and ambient pollutant concentrations, both at the point of emissions and from remote platforms, are providing novel approaches to collecting data for inventory developers. Advances in information technologies are allowing data to be shared more quickly, more easily, and processed and compared in novel ways that can speed the development of emission inventories. Approaches to improving quantitative measures of inventory uncertainty allow air quality management decisions to take into account the uncertainties associated with emissions estimates, providing more accurate projections of how well alternative strategies may work. This paper discusses applications of these technologies and techniques to improve the accuracy, timeliness, and completeness of emission inventories across North America and outlines a series of eight recommendations aimed at inventory developers and air quality management decision-makers to improve emission inventories and enable them to support effective air quality management decisions for the foreseeable future.     

Air-vegetation transfer of PCDD/PCDFs: an assessment of field data and implications for modeling

This study was designed to evaluate soil and air (gas and particle) transfer of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) to vegetation in residential and industrial areas. In a first part, soil-vegetation transfer was assessed. The levels of PCDD/Fs in 120 soil and 120 herbage samples collected from 1996 to 2002 in an industrial area of Montcada (Barcelona, Spain), near a municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI), were determined. Some additional individual samples were also evaluated. It was concluded that high soil concentrations, which are not at steady state with the air layer above it, show a tendency for PCDD/Fs to escape via volatilization. In a second part of the study, air-vegetation transfer was examined. PCDD/F concentrations from 24 herbage samples were used, while PCDD/F concentrations were also measured in seven high-volume air samples and seven passive air-vapor samples. Scavenging coefficients (m3 air "sampled"/g grass d.m.) ranged from 1.9 to 11.3 m3/g. A good trend with K(OA) was observed for PCDDs (R=0.82), while it was lower for PCDFs (R=0.55). The current results corroborate that PCDD/F concentrations in vegetation are associated with atmospheric deposition. For the highest substituted PCDD/F congeners, the air-particle uptake from plants is the principal pathway. In regions impacted by combustion emission sources, PCDD/F gas-particle partitioning is influenced by a higher concentration of particles in the air. Particles and associated particle-bound PCDD/Fs would sorb to leaf surfaces, and are subject to removal via wash off. However, in areas where emissions to air are not very notable, vapor absorption would be the principal source of vegetation pollution. The results of this investigation can have a potential interest in risk assessment studies and environmental fate models.     

A critical review of effect modeling for ecological risk assessment of plant protection products

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - A wide diversity of plant protection products (PPP) is used for crop protection leading to the contamination of soil, water, and air, which can have...     

Parameter evaluation and model validation of ozone exposure assessment using Harvard Southern California Chronic Ozone Exposure Study data

To examine factors influencing long-term ozone (O3) exposures by children living in urban communities, the authors analyzed longitudinal data on personal, indoor, and outdoor O3 concentrations, as well as related housing and other questionnaire information collected in the one-year-long Harvard Southern California Chronic Ozone Exposure Study. Of 224 children contained in the original data set, 160 children were found to have longitudinal measurements of O3 concentrations in at least six months of 12 months of the study period. Data for these children were randomly split into two equal sets: one for model development and the other for model validation. Mixed models with various variance-covariance structures were developed to evaluate statistically important predictors for chronic personal ozone exposures. Model predictions were then validated against the field measurements using an empirical best-linear unbiased prediction technique. The results of model fitting showed that the most important predictors for personal ozone exposure include indoor O3 concentration, central ambient O3 concentration, outdoor O3 concentration, season, gender, outdoor time, house fan usage, and the presence of a gas range in the house. Hierarchical models of personal O3 concentrations indicate the following levels of explanatory power for each of the predictive models: indoor and outdoor O3 concentrations plus questionnaire variables, central and indoor O3 concentrations plus questionnaire variables, indoor O3 concentrations plus questionnaire variables, central O3 concentrations plus questionnaire variables, and questionnaire data alone on time activity and housing characteristics. These results provide important information on key predictors of chronic human exposures to ambient O3 for children and offer insights into how to reliably and cost-effectively predict personal O3 exposures in the future. Furthermore, the techniques and findings derived from this study also have strong implications for selecting the most reliable and cost-effective exposure study design and modeling approaches for other ambient pollutants, such as fine particulate matter and selected urban air toxics.