Inbreeding and Extinction: A Threshold Effect

A fundamental assumption underlying the application of genetics within conservation biology is that inbreeding increases the risk of extinction. However, there is no information on the shape of the relationship, the available evidence has not distinguished genetic and nongenetic effects, and the issue is controversial. Methods were devised to separate genetic and nongenetic causes of extinction in inbred populations, and they were used to analyze data from Drosophila melanogaster, D. virilis and Mus musculus . Inbreeding markedly increased rates of extinction in all cases. All showed a threshold relationship between incremental extinction and inbreeding with low initial extinction, but they showed notably increased extinction beginning at intermediate levels of inbreeding. There was no difference in extinction levels at similar inbreeding coefficients in populations inbred at different rates (full sibling versus double first cousin). Endangered species may give little warning of impending extinction crises due to inbreeding.     

Relative Contribution of Inbreeding Depression and Eroded Adaptive Diversity to Extinction Risk in Small Populations of Shore Campion

Abstract:  To study the relative importance of inbreeding depression and the loss of adaptive diversity in determining the extinction risk of small populations, we carried out an experiment in which we crossed and self-fertilized founder plants from a single, large population of shore campion ( Silene littorea Brot.). We used the seeds these plants produced to colonize 18 new locations within the distribution area of the species. The reintroduced populations were of three kinds: inbred and genetically homogeneous, each made up of selfed seed from a single plant; inbred and mixed, made up of a mixture of selfed seeds from all founder plants; and outbred and mixed, made up of a mixture of seeds obtained in outcrosses between the founders. We compared the inbred homogeneous populations with the inbred mixed to measure the effect of genetic diversity among individuals and the inbred mixed with the outbred mixed to measure the effect of inbreeding. Reintroduction success was seriously limited by inbreeding, whereas it was not affected by genetic diversity. This observation and the nonsignificant interaction between family and reintroduction location for individual plant characters suggest that the fixation of overall deleterious genes causing inbreeding depression posed a more serious threat to the short-term survival of the populations than the loss of genes involved in genotype and environment interactions. Thus, reintroduction success was related to adaptive diversity. Preventing such fixation might be the most important consideration in the genetic management and conservation of shore campion populations.     

Conservation Corridors and Contagious Disease: A Cautionary Note

Recent conservation proposals frequently include the establishment of corridors to connect isolated patches of wildlife habitat. Much attention has been focused on the potential benefits of corridors with little note given to potentially adverse consequences. A simulation model is developed here to study the effect of corridors on the survival of a metapopulation in the presence of a fatal disease that is spread by direct contact between susceptible and infected individuals. For the disease modeled here, a landscape of patches connected by corridors generally suffers fewer metapopulation extinctions than a landscape of isolated patches. However, under a narrow range of conditions, results suggest that corridors may dramatically increase the probability of metapopulation extinction. This occurs when disease-induced mortality is low enough to allow infected individuals to spread the disease, but high enough to reduce population levels to the point that random demographic and environmental events cause frequent metapopulation extinctions. This has important implications for the design and management of conservation reserve networks. Although discussion focuses primarily on conservation corridors, the model results apply to any management techniques that increase the movement of individuals among populations.     

Developmental Instability in Fragmented Populations of Prairie Phlox: A Cautionary Tale

Abstract: Considerable attention has recently been focused on using levels of developmental instability among members of a population to detect environmental or genetic stresses on animals or plants. It is not yet clear, however, that high developmental instability in a sample of individuals always indicates environmental stress or poor genetic quality. We studied 13 fragmented populations of prairie phlox (   Phlox pilosa L.) to test the hypothesis that developmental instability should decrease with increasing population size—as expected if small populations suffer genetic problems associated with inbreeding or are exposed to more environmental stress than larger populations. We used two different measures of developmental instability, each calculated for two different traits: radial asymmetry of flowers (for petal width and petal length) and modular fluctuating asymmetry of leaves (  for leaf widths at two points along the leaf  ). There were weak but significant correlations among individuals for four of six pairwise combinations of these measures. Surprisingly, three of our four measures of developmental instability showed strong population size effects that were opposite to those expected: developmental instability increased with population size. We conclude that measures of developmental instability cannot be applied uncritically for biomonitoring without considerable knowledge of developmental mechanisms, natural history, and population biology of the species in question.     

Extinction Rates in Archipelagoes: Implications for Populations in Fragmented Habitats

To study the effect of habitat fragmentation on population viability, I used extinction rates on islands in archipelagoes and estimated the relative probability of extinction per species on single large islands and sets of smaller islands with the same total area. Data on lizards, birds, and mammals on oceanic islands and mammals on mountaintops and in nature reserves yield similar results. Species are likely to go extinct on all the small islands before they go extinct on the single, large island. In the short term, the analysis indicates that extinction probabilities may be lower on a set of small islands. This is perhaps an artifact due to underestimation of extinction rates on small islands and/or the necessity of pooling species in a focal taxon to obtain estimates of extinction rates (which may obscure area thresholds and underestimate the slope and curvature of extinction rates as a function of area). Ultimately, cumulative extinction probabilities are higher for a set of small islands than for single large islands. Mean and median times to extinction tend to be shorter in the fragmented systems, in some cases much shorter. Thus, to minimize extinction rates in isolated habitat remnants and nature reserve systems, the degree of fragmentation should be minimized     

Double Allee Effects and Extinction in the Island Fox

Abstract:  An Allee effect (AE) occurs in populations when individuals suffer a decrease in fitness at low densities. If a fitness component is reduced (component AE), per capita population growth rates may decline as a consequence (demographic AE) and extinction risk is increased. The island fox ( Urocyon littoralis ) is endemic to six of the eight California Channel Islands. Population crashes have coincided with an increase in predation by Golden Eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ). We propose that AEs could render fox populations more sensitive and may be a likely explanation for their sharp decline. We analyzed demographic data collected between 1988 and 2000 to test whether fox density (1) influences survival and reproductive rates; (2) interacts with eagle presence and affects fox fitness parameters; and (3) influences per capita fox population trends. A double component AE simultaneously influenced survival (of adults and pups) and proportion of breeding adult females. The adult survival AE was driven by predation by eagles. These component AEs led to a demographic AE. Multiple-component AEs, a predation-driven AE, and the simultaneous occurrence of both component and demographic AEs in a mammal are all previously unreported processes. Populations below 7 foxes/km² could have suboptimal population growth rates due to the demographic AE, and AEs may have contributed to the dramatic declines in three fox populations. Because fox densities in critically endangered populations are well below this level, removing Golden Eagles appears necessary to prevent a predation-driven AE. Conservationists should also be aware of AEs when planning the release of captive foxes. More generally, our findings highlight the danger of overlooking AEs in the conservation of populations of rare or threatened species.     

Inbreeding and Outbreeding Depression in Natural Populations of Chamaecrista fasciculata (Fabaceae)

Abstract: The deleterious consequences of inbreeding have been well documented. There are, however, few empirical studies that have examined the consequences of restoring heterozygosity and hence the fitness of inbred populations by conducting interpopulation crosses and measuring the performance of later-generation hybrids under field conditions. We conducted interpopulation crosses of 100 m to 2000 km, which spans the range of Chamaecrista fasciculata ( Fabaceae) in eastern North America. We then contrasted the performance of the F1 and later-segregating F3 hybrids with the parental generation. We found almost universal F1 superiority over the parents. The F3 hybrids suffered a loss of fitness compared to the F1 hybrids. The drop off in fitness of the F3 reflects both the loss of heterozygosity and the disruption of coadapted gene complexes. The F3 performance, however, was still often equal to that of the parents, suggesting that heterosis can outweigh the loss of coadaptation except for the longest-distance crosses. In a subset of environments, the F3 performance of long-distance (≥1000 km) interpopulation crosses was less than that of both parents and indicated true outbreeding depression. For C. fasciculata , it appears that crossing populations of up to intermediate distances of hundreds of kilometers has a short-term beneficial effect on progeny performance through F1, and that longer-term effects are not necessarily disruptive of fitness, at least relative to parental performance. The degree of F1 heterosis and F3 outbreeding depression varied between site and year, however, indicating an important role for the environment in the expression of these effects.     

Extinction Rate Estimates for Plant Populations in Revisitation Studies: Importance of Detectability

Abstract:  Many researchers have obtained extinction-rate estimates for plant populations by comparing historical and current records of occurrence. A population that is no longer found is assumed to have gone extinct. Extinction can then be related to characteristics of these populations, such as habitat type, size, or species, to test ideas about what factors may affect extinction. Such studies neglect the fact that a population may be overlooked, however, which may bias estimates of extinction rates upward. In addition, if populations are unequally detectable across groups to be compared, such as habitat type or population size, comparisons become distorted to an unknown degree. To illustrate the problem, I simulated two data sets, assuming a constant extinction rate, in which populations occurred in different habitats or habitats of different size and these factors affected their detectability. The conventional analysis implicitly assumed that detectability equalled 1 and used logistic regression to estimate extinction rates. It wrongly identified habitat and population size as factors affecting extinction risk. In contrast, with capture-recapture methods, unbiased estimates of extinction rates were recovered. I argue that capture-recapture methods should be considered more often in estimations of demographic parameters in plant populations and communities.     

Extinction of Mammal Populations in Western North American National Parks

Patterns of local extinction of mammal populations in western North American parks were examined in relation to current biogeographic and population lifetime models. The analysis was based on species sighting records as of 1989. While western North American parks are obviously not true isolates, patterns of mammal extinction in them are nonetheless consistent with two predictions of the land-bridge island hypothesis. First, the number of extinctions has exceeded the number of colonizations since park establishment, and, second, the rate of extinction is inversely related to park area. Factors influencing the lifetime of mammal populations were evaluated using a stepwise multivariate survival analysis procedure for censored data. Survival time for mammal populations was positively related to estimated initial population size. After accounting for population size, species within the order Lagomorpha were particularly prone to extinction. Finally, after controlling for population size and taxon variation, survival time was positively related to age of maturity, indicating that species with longer generation times—age of maturity and generation time are highly correlated in mammals—persist longer in absolute time.     

Effect of Migration or Inbreeding Followed by Selection on Low-Founder-Number Populations: Implications for Captive Breeding Programs

Using the housefly, Musca domestica (L), as a model system, we tested the ability of two extremes in the range of possible captive breeding protocols to yield sustainable populations following founding with low founder numbers. The protocols tested included two levels of migration as well as inbreeding followed by selection, each with appropriate controls. Each low-founder-number population was founded with two pairs of flies. The maximum migration scheme had 50% migration per generation, and the minimum migration populations experienced a migration rate of 2.5% per generation. The control level of migration was 0%. A fourth low-founder-number treatment was designed to test the effect of inbreeding followed by selection. Two sets of high-founder-number control groups were also derived from the stock population. Two fitness measures, viability and productivity of the populations, were recorded at the fifth generation. Populations in the minimum-migration and zero migration treatment groups had lower fitness than populations in any other treatment for both measures. Populations that experienced inbreeding and selection for high fitness levels, high levels of migration, or large high-founder-number populations were equally fit. These results demonstrate that a captive-breeding scheme that contains substantial levels of migration or inbreeding followed by selection can yield highly adapted populations.     

Avian Survival Rates and the Extinction Process on Barro Colorado Island, Panama

Abstract: Selective extinction following isolation of habitat patches may be due to biogeographical (e.g., island size or isolation) and ecological (species natural histories, interspecifc interactions) factors, or their interactions. Among the demographic and life history attributes commonly associated with high extinction probability are small populations, large size of individuals, and population variability. Long-term capture-recapture data from forest habitat in central Panama permit an examination of the association between mainland survival rates and extinction on a nearby land-bridge island Species of birds that no longer occur on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, have, on average, lower survival rates on the adjacent mainland than species that have persisted on BCI. Moreover, of the species that no longer occur on BCI, those with lower mainland survival rates generally disappeared earlier from the island. My analysis provides little evidence of a relationship between extinction and population size. Recolonization of BCI from the adjacent mainland by the forest undergrowth species studied here is unlikely. Reduced reproductive success on BCI combined with naturally low adult survival rates seems to be responsible for these BCI extinctions. High nest predation and/or altered landscape dynamics are probable agents in the low reproductive success. The methods used here could be employed in other circumstances to identify fragmentation-sensitive species.     

Unprecedented Low Levels of Genetic Variation and Inbreeding Depression in an Island Population of the Black-Footed Rock-Wallaby

Abstract: It has been argued that demographic and environmental factors will cause small, isolated populations to become extinct before genetic factors have a significant negative impact. Islands provide an ideal opportunity to test this hypothesis because they often support small, isolated populations that are highly vulnerable to extinction. To assess the potential negative impact of isolation and small population size, we compared levels of genetic variation and fitness in island and mainland populations of the black-footed rock-wallaby ( Petrogale lateralis [Marsupialia: Macropodidae]). Our results indicate that the Barrow Island population of P. lateralis has unprecedented low levels of genetic variation (  H _e = 0.053, from 10 microsatellite loci) and suffers from inbreeding depression (reduced female fecundity, skewed sex ratio, increased levels of fluctuating asymmetry). Despite a long period of isolation ( ∼ 1600 generations) and small effective population size (  N _e ∼ 15), demographic and environmental factors have not yet driven this population to extinction. Nevertheless, it has been affected significantly by genetic factors. It has lost most of its genetic variation and become highly inbred (  F _e = 0.91), and it exhibits reduced fitness. Because several other island populations of P. lateralis also exhibit exceptionally low levels of genetic variation, this phenomenon may be widespread. Inbreeding in these populations is at a level associated with high rates of extinction in populations of domestic and laboratory species. Genetic factors cannot then be excluded as contributing to the extinction proneness of small, isolated populations.     

Linking Inbreeding Effects in Captive Populations with Fitness in the Wild: Release of Replicated Drosophila melanogaster Lines under Different Temperatures

Abstract:  Inbreeding effects have been detected in captive populations of threatened species, but the extent to which these effects translate into fitness under field conditions is mostly unknown. We address this issue by comparing the performance of replicated noninbred and inbred Drosophila lines under field and laboratory conditions. We asked whether environment-dependent effects of inbreeding can be demonstrated for a field-fitness component in Drosophila , the ability of flies to locate resources, and associated the results with results on effects of inbreeding investigated in the laboratory. Inbreeding effects were evident when releases were undertaken under warm conditions, but not under cold conditions, which illustrates the environment-dependent nature of inbreeding depression. Inbreeding effects were much stronger in the field at warm temperatures than in laboratory stress tests, particularly for females. Effects of inbreeding based on performance in traditional inbreeding assays (viability, productivity) or from laboratory stress tests poorly predicted performance in the field. Inbreeding effects on resource location in the field can be strongly deleterious under some thermal conditions and involve traits not easily measured under laboratory conditions. More generally, inbreeding effects measured in captive populations may not necessarily predict their field performance, and programs to purge captive populations of deleterious alleles may not necessarily lead to fitness benefits in the wild.     

Local Extinction of Dragonfly and Damselfly Populations in Low‐ and High‐Quality Habitat Patches

Abstract: Understanding the risk of extinction of a single population is an important problem in both theoretical and applied ecology. Local extinction risk depends on several factors, including population size, demographic or environmental stochasticity, natural catastrophe, or the loss of genetic diversity. The probability of local extinction may also be higher in low‐quality sink habitats than in high‐quality source habitats. We tested this hypothesis by comparing local extinction rates of 15 species of Odonata (dragonflies and damselflies) between 1930–1975 and 1995–2003 in central Finland. Local extinction rates were higher in low‐quality than in high‐quality habitats. Nevertheless, for the three most common species there were no differences in extinction rates between low‐ and high‐quality habitats. Our results suggest that a good understanding of habitat quality is crucial for the conservation of species in heterogeneous landscapes.     

Inbreeding in a lek-mating ant species, Pogonomyrmex occidentalis

In this paper we have two goals. First, we examine the effects of sample size on the statistical power to detect a given amount of inbreeding in social insect populations. The statistical power to detect a given level of inbreeding is largely a function of the number of colonies sampled. We explore two sampling schemes, one in which a single individual per colony is sampled for different sample sizes and a second sampling scheme in which constant sampling effort is maintained (the product of the number of colonies and the number of workers per colony is constant). We find that adding additional workers to a sample from a colony makes it easier to detect inbreeding in samples from given number of colonies; however, adding more colonies rather than more workers per colony always gives greater power to detect inbreeding. Because even relatively large amounts of sib-mating generate relatively small inbreeding coefficients, detection of even substantial deviations from random mating will require very large samples. Second, we look at the amount of inbreeding in a large population of the western harvest ant, Pogonomyrmex occidentalis. We find deviations from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium equivalent to approximately 27% sib-mating in our population ( f = 0.09). Review of past studies on the population structure of other Pogonomyrmex species suggests that inbreeding may be a regular feature of the mating system of these ants. Although P. occidentalisis a swarm-mating species, there are a number of features of its population biology which suggest that the effective population size may be small. These include topographical variation that potentially breaks the population into demes, variation in the reproductive output of colonies, and variation in the size of reproductives produced by colonies. Received: 6 May 1996 / Accepted after revision: 6 October 1996