A cointegration and causality analysis of copper consumption and economic growth in rich countries

The paper examines the copper consumption-economic growth nexus for 16 rich economies from the period 1966 to 2010. Various generations of panel unit root and cointegration tests are applied. Both series are found to be integrated of order one. Evidence of cointegration is found especially when controlling for breaks and long-run cross-sectional dependence. Causality is investigated using a vector error-correction mechanism (VECM) framework. At individual level, unidirectional causality running from economic growth to copper consumption is unraveled for Finland, France and UK in the long-run. Unidirectional causality is also found running from copper consumption to economic growth for Spain. Long-run bi-directionality between economic growth and copper consumption is found for Belgium, Greece, Italy, Japan and South Korea. The neutrality hypothesis holds for Australia, Austria, Canada, Netherlands, Portugal, Sweden and USA in the long-run. Taken as a whole, panel causality test reveals a long-run unidirectional causality running from economic growth to copper consumption.     

Copper Investment Policy in Chile 1973–1984

The present Government of Chile has retained under state ownership the large-scale copper mines nationalized by the Allende Government in 1971. At the same time it has pledged itself to open fully the Chilean economy to the free play of national and international market forces and to this end has elected to expand Chilean copper production by using foreign capital. The financial regimes created by the Government to attract such investment are described. Although the investment terms have been generous, the Government has not been as successful in attracting as much foreign investment as it had hoped. It is suggested that the Government could expand copper production more efficiently and at less cost to the nation by investing in the state-owned copper industry.     

Managing mineral dependence: Papua New Guinea 1972–89

Papua New Guinea (PNG) managed the mineral booms of 1973–74, 1979–82 and 1987-89 well compared with other mineral exporting economies. Orthodox macroeconomic policies were one reason for this while the cushion afforded by the slow withdrawal of Australian aid was another. PNG also renegotiated MNC mining contracts in its favour without curbing foreign investment, but it managed its fragile political unity less well. Secession closed a large mine in 1989 while successful rent-seeking left wage indexation unreformed. Relatively high wages, exchange rate overvaluation and foreign investment controls in non-mining sectors retarded structural diversification: mineral dependence remains uncomfortably high a generation after the start-up of the first copper mine.     

The copper and aluminum industries: A review of structural changes

In this article the evolution of the aluminium and copper industries is examined, with a view to deriving policy options open to Third World copper producers, which face a declining rate in the growth of consumption. Market structure, company behaviour and performance are analysed for both industries. The impact of energy and general economic crisis in copper and aluminium industries is assessed and market concentration trends are discussed. We conclude that Third World copper producers must change their basic orientation and become seriously involved in market development.     

World copper market, 1973–1982, and international stabilization policies

This article critically examines international price stabilization policy in relation to the main features of the world copper market and the structural changes that have affected the industry in the decade up to 1982. The first section summarizes the main features of the world copper market, briefly discussing the principal structural changes; the second part examines the recent pattern of investment in copper and changes in ownership of some copper producing companies resulting from the need for improved cash flows due to the adverse effects of the recession; and the third part analyses the practical and theoretical issues relating to the question of price instability. A number of formidable problems are likely to arise from such price stabilization policies and it is concluded that it is because of these difficulties that the policies have not been implemented. Consequently, international commodity agreements designed to minimize or avoid price instability have proved difficult to conclude. New questions on which consensus is likely should be examined to promote intergovernmental co-operation, and hence market stability. With that end in view, this article lists some new questions that could form the basis of an agenda for exploratory intergovernmental discussions on copper.     

INEQUITIES FOR SMALL FOOD PROCESSING PLANTS RESULTING FROM LIQUID WASTE TREATMENT REGULATIONS1

ABSTRACT: The cost of the liquid wast treatment measures required to meet federal as well as typical state and local regulations was examined for dairy processing plants of various sizes. Federal effluent standards were found to produce higher estimated capital costs per unit of raw material for smaller plants, even with relaxed requirements for smaller plants. State regulations limiting the effluent BOD₅- concentration were also found to result in inequitable costs for smaller processors. These inequities result from economies of scale and not such factors as level of process technology employed or amount of waste produced per unit of raw material. In contrast, applying an example sewer surcharge formula did not produce inequities from economies of scale.     

The roles of Asia and Chile in the world copper market

Examining the production and consumption for copper between 1985 and 2003, we see two dramatic changes. The first is the rapid growth of consumption in China and other Asian countries, the second the rapid growth of production in Chile. This paper examines these two important developments, which nicely accommodated each other, allowing the global copper market to remain more or less in balance over this period. A better understanding of the forces responsible for both, it is hoped, will allow us to understand better whether they are likely to continue in the future in a manner that provides a rough balance between global consumption and the available production.     

Panel heterogeneous distribution analysis of trade and modernized agriculture on CO2 emissions: The role of renewable and fossil fuel energy consumption

In line with the global target of reducing climate change and its impact, this study explored the causal relationship between CO₂ emissions, modernized agriculture, trade openness, aggregate and disaggregate energy consumption in 14 African countries from 1990–2013 using a panel quantile estimation procedure. The empirical results showed that value addition to agricultural commodities declines CO₂ emissions in countries with high pollution levels. The study revealed a positive nexus between CO₂ emissions and energy consumption homogeneously distributed across quantiles. Trade openness was found to lower CO₂ emissions in countries with lower and higher levels of environmental pollution. While fossil fuel energy consumption was found to exacerbate CO₂ emissions, renewable energy consumption confirmed its mitigating effect on environmental pollution. The institution of climate‐smart agricultural options will sustainably increase productivity and income while adapting to climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Diversification of energy technologies with clean and modern energy sources like renewables avoid the over‐dependence on fossil fuels for agricultural purposes. Trade policies can stimulate flows of technology and investment opportunities for specialization in production and economies of scale. Hence, the consideration of policies that boost agricultural sector productivity and create an efficient market for international trade in Africa will help in improving livelihoods.     

Impact of market reforms on future patterns of non-ferrous metal consumption of the former Soviet Union

The study examines the implications of market-oriented reforms on the prospects of non-ferrous metal use in the former USSR. Past metal consumption behaviour of the USSR is found to differ considerably from prevailing patterns of the advanced market economies. The study estimates a large 'intensity- of-use' gap across metals, which can be taken as a relatively easily mobilizable source for efficiency improvements via market reforms. Two scenarios for economic reforms are modelled, notably radical and gradual. Both are shown to cause a collapse of varying intensity in domestic metal demand lasting until the mid-1990s. For the subsequent period, a turnaround in consumption trends is projected, which is sharper under the radical reform scenario. The projected collapse of domestic demand argues for an increasing exportable surplus in the former Soviet Union for a range of non-ferrous metals, with potentially severe depressive effect on world prices.     

Is the Intensity of Copper Use Still Declining in the USA?

This article examines several deficiencies in the standard procedure for calculating the intensity of metal use. It then investigates the possibility that the long-term decline in the intensity of copper use in the USA, which has persisted for more than four decades, has in recent years come to an end, even though the standard measures of intensity of use indicate a continuation of the downward trend, albeit at a slower rate. If true, the implications are significant for the copper industry worldwide, because the USA is the largest national market for copper. In addition, consumption trends in many other countries in some respects follow those in the USA. The results do provide some support for the hypothesis that intensity of copper use in the USA is no longer falling. They also indicate that the standard procedure significantly underestimates USA copper consumption and in turn intensity of use.     

Research needs for improving biofuel burning cookstove technologies

The contribution of the household biofuel cooking energy system in developing countries to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases is significant and a potential exists to halve this contribution cost-effectively. A review of past programmes aimed at disseminating stoves designed to reduce fuel consumption and exposures shows these programmes to have been only partially successful. If future programmes are to achieve their intended societal objectives and satisfy consumer requirements, research on designing improved stoves with lower emissions is critical. Integrated research will also be required on other related aspects, such as measurements of emissions from various stove-biofuel combinations, and on developing improved procedures for testing, evaluation and dissemination. The multiple benefits that can accrue from these programmes makes continuing and increased investment of efforts worthwhile.     

The USSR, China, India and the world metals industry to 2010

Remarkable changes are occurring within the economies of the USSR, China and India that are influencing mineral industry activities. These three countries account for a major share of world minerals production and consumption. Their domestic reforms may ultimately have a serious impact on the global mining industry. This paper examines the present status of the Soviet, Chinese and Indian mineral industries, and forecasts conditions to 2010. Long-term characteristics analysed include industrial production, intensity of use, consumption, mine and plant expansion and trade policy. Six metals are highlighted in the study – aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, steel and zinc.     

Derivative mine valuation: strategic investment decisions in competitive markets

Successful management in competitive markets requires evaluation methods that respond to global market dynamics and provide investors with relevant information to make strategic investment decisions. These strategic decisions include decisions on investment timing, feasibility study and risk management and mine operating options. Conventional methods do not have the built-in capabilities to help investors handle these strategic issues. Advances in modern finance have had profound impacts on financial markets for options, futures and collaterized securities and offer appropriate tools in solving these problems. In this paper, the authors have extended the Brennan and Schwartz mineral resource model to develop the derivative mine valuation method based on the dynamic arbitrage theory. A copper mining venture has been evaluated using the derivative mine valuation and conventional methods. The results show that the derivative mine valuation method allows investors to maximize the venture's market value by exercising these strategic options.     

Harnessing the bonanza: economic liberalization and capacity building in the mineral sector

Over the past decade many developing and transition economies have liberalized their investment regimes for mining and privatized formerly state-owned mineral assets. In response, these economies have witnessed increased foreign investment in exploration and development, growth in the number and diversity of mineral projects, and the opening up of new channels for harnessing increased economic and social benefits from development in the minerals sector. The restructuring of fiscal and regulatory regimes to encourage foreign investment, and the associated influx of mining capital, technology and skills, is transforming traditional relationships between mining firms, local communities and the government. This transformation necessitates a re-evaluation of the most effective policy approaches to capture increased economic and social benefits from mineral production. This article considers effective mechanisms for improving the capacity of developing and transition countries to maximize the economic and social benefits of mineral production. Common challenges associated with minerals economies are reviewed. Consideration is given to the opportunities for harnessing foreign direct investment and the possibilities for creating new partnerships between local communities, industry, government, and multilateral development agencies through social investment projects. The article concludes with a series of recommendations for the design and implementation of policy approaches towards harnessing mineral production for economic and social benefit following the liberalization of investment regimes for mining.     

Economic liberalisation, innovation, and technology transfer: opportunities for cleaner production in the minerals industry

The liberalisation of investment regimes for mining over the past decade is encouraging an inflow of foreign investment for mining and mineral processing projects in developing and former centrally-planned economies. This new investment is occurring at a time of technological change within the international mining industry as market and regulatory pressures lead the most dynamic firms to invest in the development or acquisition of new technologies and management practices. The effective transfer and assimilation of these technologies enable mining companies to combine gains in productivity with improvements in environmental management. Joint ventures and other strategic alliances between inwardly investing firms and the newly privatised or remnant state-owned mining enterprises may provide an effective vehicle for the transfer of the techniques for more productive and cleaner operations. Specific examples of innovative process and remediation technologies are analysed and it is suggested that the ability of innovative technologies to improve competitiveness and sustain best-practice environmental management in the recipient is linked to the transfer and effective acquisition of the capacity to manage the complex processes of technological and organisational change. The paper closes with some recommendations for further research directed towards a systematic examination of this hypothesis.     

Materials intensity of GDP: Research issues on the measurement and explanation of change

The intuitively appealing notion that the materials intensity of GDP declines with economic maturity has recently attracted attention: Upon closer inspection the basic concept is seen to be vaguely defined: efforts at measurement do not yield unequivocal results and the causes of change are imperfectly understood. Further research is required using input-output models to trace the impact of technological change on materials consumption for economies at differing levels of development and with differing industrial structures.     

The growth of develop-for-import projects

This article examines develop-for-import projects financed by development loans and mixed credits supplied by export-import banks and other financial institutions of the central governments of France, Japan and the Federal Republic of Germany. The projects discussed are those producing bauxite, alumina, aluminium, chromium, copper, iron, manganese, molybdenum, nickel and tungsten, in developing market economies, Australia and Canada. The article estimates the volume of these metals committed to France, Japan and FRG to pay for loans and credits, examines the types of financial arrangement involved in develop-for-import projects, and considers the compatibility of these arrangements with the multilateral liberalized world trading system developed by the General Ageement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) over the past 40 years. To the extent that these arrangements do not fully reflect changes in international market forces, world trade in metals will tend to be distorted and discriminatory.     

基于典型相关分析的电子类生活垃圾回收政策及其效果关系研究

本文围绕以手机为主的电子类生活垃圾回收环节,基于EPR电子生活垃圾回收实验及目前电子类生活垃圾的回收激励政策和效果,运用典型相关分析方法确定激励政策及政策效果的主要影响变量,研究以手机为主的电子类生活垃圾回收的激励政策与政策效果之间的关系,强化电子类生活垃圾回收的政策措施,扩大政策效果,促进资源的回收及再利用。本文设定的回收激励政策包括政府对废旧手机回收率的最低要求、优惠力度以及获得高优惠的最低回收率要求,政策效果包括废旧手机实际回收率、销售市场营业额以及生产者补贴总额等方面。研究结果表明,电子类生活垃圾回收激励政策与政策效果之间存在着显著的相关关系,其中,获得高优惠的最低回收率对废旧手机实际回收率有显著抑制作用,废旧手机回收率的最低要求对销售市场营业额有显著抑制作用。本文在此基础上给出了政策建议。     

The Evolution and Role of Non-OPEC Production in the International Oil Market

In 1982, for the first time since OPEC was founded in 1961, its production was surpassed by the non-OPEC countries in the world excluding the centrally planned economies. In that year, for the world as a whole, OPEC provided 35% of the oil consumed. The decline was brought about by a decrease in consumption and by a marked increase in production from non-OPEC sources. It is expected that non-OPEC producers will have the capacity to meet more than half of the world's oil requirements until the early 1990s, at which time OPEC producers will again assume the role of providing over 50% of the world's oil.     

Sustainable consumption and production: Trends, challenges and options for the Asia-Pacific region

This paper highlights current trends in consumption and production patterns in Asian developing countries and emerging economies. It describes the main challenges and opportunities for Asian countries making the transition towards sustainable consumption and production patterns. The main challenge for Asian economies is to address the unsustainable consumption patterns of urban consumers, which entails a policy shift from the current focus on pollution and inefficient industrial production. In view of future consumption trends and the global convergence of consumption patterns, the characteristics of the emerging 'global consumer class' are examined, with particular focus on urban ecological footprints and carbon emissions. Furthermore, the difference between urban and rural consumption is discussed, together with opportunities for low-carbon urban development in the megacities of Asian developing countries. To conclude, the paper presents an overview of current policy measures taken in Asian countries to green economic development and realise sustainable consumption and production patterns.