An assessment methodology for successional systems. I. Null models and the regulatory framework

Standard procedures for evaluating environmental impact involve comparison between before and after conditions or scenarios or between treatment and control site pairs. In many cases, however, endogenous directional change (natural succession) is expected to occur at a significant rate over the period of concern, particularly for manmade systems such as impoundments. Static evaluations do not provide an adequate approach to such problems. A new evaluation frame is proposed. Nominal system behavior over time is characterized by a stochastic envelope around a nominal trajectory. We show that both the state variance and the sampling variance can change over time. In this context, environmental regulations can be framed as constraints, targets, or conformance to ideal trajectories. Statistical tests for determining noncompliance are explored relative to process variance, sample error, and sample size. Criteria are elucidated for choosing properties to monitor, sample size, and sampling interval.     

Conceptualization of a robust performance assessment and evaluation model for consolidating community water systems

Community water systems (CWS) face significant competing forces for change from decreasing water resource availability, stricter water quality regulations, decreasing federal subsidies, increasing public scrutiny, decreasing financial health, and increasing infrastructure replacement costs. These competing forces necessitate increasing consolidation responses among financially stressed CWS. Consolidation responses allow financially stressed CWS to increase levels of service by taking advantage of economy of scale benefits, such as eliminating service duplications across administration and operational functions. Consolidation responses also promote improved financial accountability among consolidating CWS, especially when operating as integral subsystems of a larger regional drinking water supply (RDWS) system. The goal of this paper is to propose a conceptual model for robust performance assessment and evaluation (PAE) among consolidating CWS. The objectives of this paper are to conceptualize methods for: (1) consistent performance assessment and (2) uniform summative performance evaluation among consolidating CWS. The expected outcome from implementing robust PAE among consolidating CWS is increased levels of service through transparent benchmarking and improved financial accountability. The proposed robust PAE model provides the basis for constructing decision support system (DSS) tools that estimate efficient solutions for allocating limited financial resources among consolidating CWS. The paper is a significant departure from current CWS PAE approaches in two ways. First, it provides a goal-oriented approach for robust PAE among consolidating CWS. Second, it constructs efficiency-based performance metrics to temporally and spatially monitor the degree of attainment of the RDWS systems' goal.     

Project appraisal and planning for overdeveloped countries: II. Shadow pricing under uncertainty

In the uncertainty that surrounds the future availability of nonrenewable natural resources and the efficacy of technological advance, the economic costing of resources should be undertaken probabilistically. While optimistic assumptions entail little change from the costing procedures used in conventional cost-benefit analysis, even moderately pessimistic assumptions lead to a much increased cost for nonrenewable resources. These lead in turn to a reappraisal of the value of investment and of the cost ascribed to other factors of production. Even when optimistic assumptions are deemed the more plausible, a utility-maximizing evaluation may still give more emphasis to pessimism.     

Herbicide Transport in Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed: II. Long‐Term Research on Acetochlor,Alachlor, Metolachlor,and Metribuzin1

Lerch, R.N., E.J. Sadler, C. Baffaut, N.R. Kitchen, and K.A. Sudduth, 2010. Herbicide Transport in Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed: II. Long‐Term Research on Acetochlor, Alachlor, Metolachlor, and Metribuzin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐15. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00504.x Abstract: Farmers in the Midwestern United States continue to be reliant on soil‐applied herbicides for weed control in crop production, and herbicide contamination of streams remains an environmental problem. The main objective of this study was to analyze trends in concentration and load of acetochlor, alachlor, metolachlor, and metribuzin in Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed (GCEW) from 1992 to 2006. A secondary objective was to document the effects of best management practices (BMPs) implemented within GCEW on herbicide transport trends. Median relative herbicide loads, as a percent of applied, were 3.7% for metolachlor, 1.3% for metribuzin, 0.36% for acetochlor, and 0.18% for alachlor. The major decrease in alachlor use and increase in acetochlor use caused shifts in flow‐weighted concentrations that were observed over the entire concentration range. The smaller decrease in metolachlor use led to a consistent decreasing time trend only for the upper end of the concentration distribution. Metribuzin also showed moderate decreases in concentration with time since 1998. Annual loads were generally correlated to second quarter discharge. Despite extensive education efforts in the watershed, conservation BMPs within GCEW were mainly implemented to control erosion, and therefore had no discernable impact on reducing herbicide transport. Overall, changes in herbicide use and second quarter discharge had the greatest effect on trends in flow‐weighted concentration and annual load.     

A national critical loads framework for atmospheric deposition effects assessment: II. Defining assessment end points,indicators, and functional subregions

The United States Environmental Protection Agency, with support from the US Department of Energy and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, has been evaluating the feasibility of an effects-based (critical loads) approach to atmospheric pollutant regulation and abatement. The rationale used to develop three of the six steps in a flexible assessment framework (Strickland and others, 1992) is presented along with a discussion of a variety of implementation approaches and their ramifications. The rationale proposes that it is necessary to provide an explicit statement of the condition of the resource that is considered valuable (assessment end point) because: (1) individual ecosystem components may be more or less sensitive to deposition, (2) it is necessary to select indicators of ecosystem condition that can be objectively measured and that reflect changes in the quality of the assessment end point, and (3) acceptable status (i.e., value of indicator and quality of assessment end point at critical load) must be defined. The rationale also stresses the importance of defining the assessment regions and subregions to improve the analysis and understanding of the indicator response to deposition. Subregional definition can be based on a variety of criteria, including informed judgment or quantitative procedures. It also depends on the geographic scale at which exposure and effects models are accurate and on data availability, resolution, and quality. The research described in this article has been funded by the US Environmental Protection Agency. This document has been prepared at the EPA Environmental Research Laboratory in Corvallis, Oregon, through contract #68-C8-0006 with ManTech Environmental Technology, Inc., and Interagency Agreement #1824-B014-A7 with the US Department of Energy and at Oak Ridge National Laboratory managed by Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc., under Contract DE-AC05-84OR21400 with the US Department of Energy. Environmental Sciences Division Publication No. 3903. It has been subjected to the agency’s peer and administrative review and approved for publication. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.     

An economic and environmental assessment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) power plants: a case study for the City of Kiel

In the not too distant future several power plants throughout Europe will have to be replaced and the decision has to be made whether to build coal-fired power plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS). In a study for the city of Kiel in northern Germany only an 800 MW coal power plant reaches a required minimum for rentability. This study looks at an additional economic and environmental evaluation of a coal plant with CCS. We find that in two out of three carbon and energy price scenarios integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plants with CCS have the greatest rentability. Pulverised coal (PC) plants with CCS can only compete with other options under very favourable assumptions. Life-cycle emissions from CCS are less than 70% of a coal plant – compared with at least more than 80% when only considering direct emissions from plants. However, life-cycle emissions are lower than in any other assessed option.     

Spatial assessment of the economic feasibility of short rotation coppice on radioactively contaminated land in Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia. II. Monte Carlo analysis

A Monte Carlo analysis of two sequential GIS-embedded submodels, which evaluate the economic feasibility of short rotation coppice (SRC) production and energy conversion in areas contaminated by Chernobyl-derived (137)Cs, was performed to allow for variability of environmental conditions that was not contained in the spatial model inputs. The results from this analysis were compared to the results from the deterministic model presented in part I of this paper. It was concluded that, although the variability in the model results due to within-gridcell variability of the model inputs was considerable, the prediction of the areas where SRC and energy conversion is potentially profitable was robust. If the additional variability in the model input that is not contained in the input maps is also taken into account, the SRC production and energy conversion appears to be potentially profitable at more locations for both the small scale and large scale production scenarios than the model predicted using the deterministic model.     

An eco-environmental water demand based model for optimising water resources using hybrid genetic simulated annealing algorithms. Part II. Model application and results

The present optimisation model described in Part I of this work is applied to optimise water resources in the Haihe river basin, an important basin in north China that covers 31.82 million km². Results show that this optimisation model with the HGSAA solution is feasible and effective in the long-term optimisation of water resource use. It is shown that the combined forecasting method can improve the forecast precision. The results obtained indicate that the mean relative errors of BP and polynomial models are 2.3% and 4.9%, respectively, while that of the combined forecasting method is 1.93% in a case study on the Tumahe River for 2010. The combined forecasting method performs better because it incorporates various forecasting methods. The optimisation results show that both domestic and eco-environmental water demands can satisfy the requirements of the forecasting procedure, and the harmonious indices all exceeded 0.7. The Luanhe River is the most water-scarce sub-basin in the Haihe river basin.