气候变化的中国应对

<正>气候变化是国际社会迄今为止所面对的最大的可持续发展挑战,需要国际层面与中国层面的双重努力来应对。中国针对气候变化这一可持续发展挑战的应对分为国际与国内两方面。一、国际层面在国际层面,中国作为《联合国气候变化框架协议》(UNFCCC)的缔约方,积极应对全球气候变化,加强气候变化国际合作,提交国家自主贡献,推动气候变化国际谈判的积极     

全球气候治理的国际合作进程、挑战与中国行动

本研究从气候变化的科学事实和原因出发,进一步阐明气候变化的科学性及其产生的影响,认为人类活动是导致气候变化的主要原因。全面梳理了气候变化国际合作进程,将其分为机制建立、谈判停滞、谈判回暖、谈判升温四个阶段,认为当前气候变化的国际合作存在气候变化问题复杂、减排责任分歧明显、减排能力不足、合作机制有限等挑战。面对气候变化问题,中国积极参与气候变化国际谈判,将气候变化纳入国家发展规划,通过专项性规划、低碳试点、市场化机制等手段积极参与全球气候治理,并对未来中国参与全球气候变化治理的着力点进行了分析。     

美国气候变化政治意愿新进展

气候变化问题需要全球各国共同应对,而美国作为全球政治经济实力最强的排放大国,在应对气候变化的国际行动中具有重要的作用。2007年以来,美国应对气候变化的国家态度在民主党掌控的国会推动下逐渐积极,而奥巴马总统的当选无疑将这一政治意愿推向了高潮。当前,美国应对气候变化的国内政治版图正在发生显著变革,这对于中国适时调整国家战略并寻求最有利的国际环境具有重大意义。     

对气候变化问题的再认识

<正>气候变化是一个涉及科学和政治、环境和发展、社会和伦理等诸多内涵的复杂问题。自上世纪八十年代末九十年代初起,国际社会就应对气候变化问题开始了一系列研究和漫长的谈判。经过不懈努力,积极应对气候变化已经成为全球共识。当前,围绕确立2020年后全球温室气体减排机制的谈判进入关键阶段,各方力争达成一项能够得到最多认同的新协议,在此背景下就气候变化的几个问题谈     

应对气候变化立法研究

正气候变化的不利影响事关全人类福祉,事关中国经济社会发展全局和人民群众切身利益。积极应对气候变化是加快经济发展转型和能源结构优化,推进国家低碳发展的重要着力点。从当前国际经验看,国际社会从一纸框架性公约到各国开展履约行动并落实国家自主贡献承诺,气候立法对推进全球气候治理起到了决定性作用。中国作为《联合国气候变化框架公约》缔约方,具有积极应对气候变化的国家义务。开展应对气候变化立法有利于展示积极应对气候变化的负责任大国形     

全球“弃煤”进程前景与我国的应对策略

2018年12月,联合国卡托维兹气候大会完成了《巴黎协定》实施细则的谈判,开启了全球应对气候变化行动的新时代。会议期间,煤炭转型问题广受关注。长远来看,减少煤炭使用,促进全球绿色低碳转型是应对气候变化的必然要求,部分国家"弃煤"经验值得借鉴。中国作为煤炭大国,尽管短期内还不具备全面"弃煤"的条件,但煤炭消费总量控制已经取得积极进展,未来煤炭行业转型依然任重而道远。     

应对气候变化的中国步调

气候变化既是环境问题,也是发展问题,但归根到底是发展问题.面对国际金融危机的严重冲击和气候变化谈判的巨大挑战,党中央、国务院果断决策,不断丰富和完善应对策略,为国内应对气候变化工作指明了方向,同时也为国际谈判和合作注入了新的动力和活力.     

2050低碳经济情景预测

气候变化是国际社会普遍关注的全球性问题,已成为各国未来经济和社会可持续发展的重要影响冈素.国际社会包括发展中国家都为应对气候变化作出了不懈的努力.近期随着对气候变化认识的曰益深入,国际上针对气候变化讨论的强度明显加大,一些国家和地区公布了减排目标,2012年之后的国际谈判正在进行中.     

气候变化环境政策的制度分析

全球气候变化问题是涉及多个国家利益的全球性外部性问题,国际社会通过谈判和制定国家环境政策解决.《联合国气候变化框架公约》内在的体系即为解决这一问题的权威性文件.但是由于各利益相关国家的分歧,政策的执行效果有待分析.面临气候变化问题,有必要探讨我国在国际政策框架下制定相应的政策和机制.     

清洁发展机制在国内外的实践及启示

清洁发展机制产生的背景 为了减缓和应对全球气候变化，国际社会经过艰苦谈判，在1992年通过了《联合国气候变化框架公约》（简称“《公约》”）。《公约》依照“共同但有区别的责任”原则，规定附件1国家，包括发达国家和前苏联、东欧等经济转型国家，在2000年将温室气体排放控制到1990年的水平。对于非附件1国家，即包括中国在内的发展中国家，没有减排或限排义务。     

Sustainable development as a framework for developing country participation in international climate change policies

The paper presents a number of ideas on how climate change policy implementation in developing countries can be supported by alternative international cooperation mechanisms that are based on stakeholder interests and policy priorities including broader economic and social development issues. It includes a brief review of current development policies, technological research and promotion efforts, and climate change that demonstrates that mutual policy initiatives undertaken by governments and the private sector actually have major positive impacts on climate change without being initiated by this global policy concern. Furthermore a number of examples are given on how future development objectives in Brazil, China, and India jointly can support economic and social goals and global climate change concerns if these goals are taken into consideration and supported by international cooperative mechanisms. The paper proposes international cooperative mechanisms that can support the implementation of integrated development and climate change policies. The mechanisms include an international sustainable development (SD) and Climate Finance Mechanism (SDCFM), technology development and transition programmes, technology standards, and other measures.

中国和国际环境条约

文章介绍了中国在积极参与环保领域的国际合作中，先后批准加入的２１个重要的多边环境和签署的２１项双边环境协定，并回顾最近几年在履约方面的重要进展，主要包括臭氧层的保护、控制危险废物越境转移，保护生物多样性、防止全球气候变化等几个方面的工作，同时，也展望了今后我国在履约方面所面临的艰巨任务。     

Balancing China’s climate damage risk against emission control costs

In this study, we incorporate a three-reservoir climate module into our energy-economy-environmental integrated (3E-integrated) system model, in order to estimate the effect of China’s contribution of unilateral emissions on global warming and to weigh the macro-mitigation cost against the risk of damage, and we also explore the role of adaptation in reducing climate change risk. Our results suggest that China’s unilateral emission-control action plays a relatively limited role in mitigating global warming and is not particularly cost-effective, given that the macro-reduction cost is much larger than the benefit in the corresponding climate damage mitigation. Adaptation plays a large role in curbing China’s climate damages and improving the economics of China’s unilateral emission-control actions, and it is little affected by the introduction and option mitigation strategies. To prevent global warming from exceeding critical thresholds, more international collaborations and cooperative efforts are therefore anxiously needed; as for China, bolstering a low-carbon economy and installing an effective mechanism for improving the adaptation level are two feasible options for controlling climate damage risks, given the great uncertainty on the present situation of international cooperation mitigation.     

China, the United States and technology cooperation on climate control

The U.S. and China are the world's largest and second largest CO₂ emitters, respectively, and to what extent the U.S. and China get involved in combating global climate change is extremely important both for lowering compliance costs of climate mitigation and adaptation and for moving international climate negotiations forward. While it is unavoidable that China will take on commitments at some specific point of time in the future, this paper has argued that the proposal for joint accession by the U.S. and China is not a way forward. For various reasons, such a proposal is in the U.S. interest, but is not in the interest of China. Given the U.S. political reality and institutional settings on the one hand and China's over-riding concern about economic growth and poverty reduction on the other, the two countries are unlikely to take on emissions caps under an international regime, at least for the time being. Therefore, we need to explore the area where cooperation between the two countries to address climate change seems best. The research, development and deployment of clean technology is the area that is in the best interests of the two countries. The U.S. has adopted a technology-oriented approach to climate issues, and has launched the four multilateral initiatives on technology cooperation and the Asia Pacific Partnership for Clean Development and Climate (APP). China has participated in all these U.S.-led initiatives, and is a partner to the APP. Strengthened technology cooperation between the two countries through these initiatives and the APP has led some tangible benefits. However, it should be pointed out that while technology is a critical ingredient in a climate policy package, efforts such as the APP can only be part of the solution. They alone cannot ensure that best available technologies are always deployed in the marketplace, and that new technologies will roll out at the pace and on the scale that we need. In order to have such technology-oriented approach to play a full role, we do need a coordinated policy framework agreed via the Kyoto Protocol or a follow-up regime or the parent United Nations Framework Convention.     

后京都时代AFOLU机制政策选择问题初探

AFoLu机制将农业、林业和其他土地利用整合在一起,将被纳入后京都时代国际气候变化制度中并扮演关键角色。我国需选择基于AFOLU活动的正确的政策工具,充分认识自身的政策基础,在政策选择研究基础上做出最优政策选择,从而在后京都时代既适应和减缓全球气候变化,又有利于我国绿色经济发展。     

全球气候变化下中国林产品的减排贡献：基于木质林产品固碳功能核算

森林及其产品的固碳功能对减缓气候变化具有重要作用。木质林产品（下简称HWP）的碳储存是全球气候变化的重要议题,研究HWP碳储量并对其进行功能管理,对我国政府提高温室气体减排潜力并参与气候谈判、提交国家温室气体排放清单具有重要的现实意义。论文依据政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）建议的HWP碳量核算模型,研究了1961—2011年中国HWP的固碳功能,继而比较分析了中国HWP碳储量的减排潜力。研究表明：从总量看,储量变化法、大气流动法基础上核算的中国2011 年度碳储量值分别为6.76×10⁸ t 碳和2.58×10⁸ t 碳;从年增长量看,储量变化法、大气流动法基础核算的中国HWP碳储量增长平均值为1 063×10⁴ t 碳和262×10⁴ t 碳。基于中国是世界HWP进口大国,储量变化法的选择应用将对我国有利。HWP碳储量减排贡献的研究发现：中国HWP碳储量为森林立木总量的4.75%~8.42%,平均约为6%;对比中国能源消费的年碳排放量值,中国HWP的年碳储量可以减排约1.6%,中国HWP具有显著的碳汇功能及进一步提升的减排潜力。     

气候变化对中国黄淮海农业区小麦生产影响模拟研究

研究首先利用1980-2000年黄淮海农业区10个站点的农业数据对CER ES-W heat动态机理作物模型进行详细的验证,然后将CERESW-heat模型与两个全球气候模式(G ISS和H adley)结合,同时考虑到CO2对小麦的直接施肥作用,模拟了黄淮海农业区10个站点在IPCC SR ES A 2和B2两个气候情景下雨养和灌溉小麦产量和水分利用的变化趋势。得到如下结论:在不考虑CO2直接肥效的情况下,黄淮海农业区雨养小麦全面减产,空间分布特点是西部减产幅度大,东部减产幅度小;在充分灌溉的情况下,灌溉小麦产量维持了现有水平,但灌溉水量增加。因此,在未来该地区水资源短缺的情况下,如何合理利用有限的水资源将成为黄淮海农业区主要面临的问题。在考虑CO2直接肥效的情况下,雨养和灌溉小麦产量都全面增产,雨养小麦的增产幅度明显偏高,灌溉小麦约增产10%～30%,但CO 2的肥效能否充分实现还需要进一步研究证明。     

2022 年 1 期目录

为摸清全球气候变化背景下,我国海岸带蓝碳应对气候变化的发展状况,发掘我国海岸带蓝碳减缓与适应气候变化的潜力,分析了我国海岸带蓝碳生态系统的基本状况及保护恢复情况,阐述了海岸带蓝碳对气候变化的影响及响应机制,论述了我国海岸带蓝碳发展面临的形势及管理需求。最后,提出了我国海岸带蓝碳应对气候变化的发展建议,即推进海岸带蓝碳管理政策的制定和实施,实现我国海岸带蓝碳的系统性监测,积极开展受损蓝碳生态系统修复案例的研究,加强海岸带蓝碳保护与修复的公众参与度,增强国际合作。     

Simulating climate change impacts and potential adaptations on rice yields in the Sichuan Basin,China

Rice (Oryza) is a staple food in China, and rice yield is inherently sensitive to climate change. It is of great regional and global importance to understand how and to what degree climate change will impact rice yields and to determine the adaptation options effectiveness for mitigating possible adverse impacts or for taking advantage of beneficial changes. The objectives of this study are to assess the climate change impact, the carbon dioxide (CO₂) fertilization effect, and the adaptation strategy effectiveness on rice yields during future periods (2011–2099) under the newly released Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario in the Sichuan Basin, one of the most important rice production areas of China. For this purpose, the Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES)-Rice model was applied to conduct simulation, based on high-quality meteorological, soil and agricultural experimental data. The modeling results indicated a continuing rice reduction in the future periods. Compared to that without incorporating of increased CO₂ concentration, a CO₂ fertilization effect could mitigate but still not totally offset the negative climate change impacts on rice yields. Three adaptive measures, including advancing planting dates, switching to current high temperature tolerant varieties, and breeding new varieties, could effectively offset the negative climate change impacts with various degrees. Our results will not only contribute to inform regional future agricultural adaptation decisions in the Sichuan Basin but also gain insight into the mechanism of regional rice yield response to global climate change and the effectiveness of widely practiced global thereby assisting with appropriate adaptive strategies.     

我国发展低碳农业的主要措施研究

在全球气候变暖和能源危机的背景下,农业是温室气体主要排放源之一,低碳农业作为应对气候变化的农业行动,越来越受到人们的重视。低碳农业的目标是减缓温室气体,实现高效率、低能耗、低排放、高碳汇的高效农业。在推动我国低碳农业发展的措施方面,总结起来主要包括减少碳排放、增加碳汇和采用其他相应的技术措施相结合。也就是通过一系列相应的技术措施和基础设施建设,减少温室气体总量排放的同时,增加耕地、草地和林地吸收二氧化碳的量,从而实现低碳农业的可持续发展。