TUGAI: An Integrated Simulation Tool for Ecological Assessment of Alternative Water Management Strategies in a Degraded River Delta

The development of ecologically sound water allocation strategies that account for the needs of riverine ecosystems is a pressing issue, especially in semiarid river basins. In the Aral Sea Basin, a search for strategies to mitigate ecological and socioeconomic deterioration has been in process since the early 1990s. The Geographic Information System–based simulation tool TUGAI has been developed to support the policy determination process by providing a simple, problem-oriented method to assess ecological effects of alternative water management strategies for the Amudarya River. It combines a multiobjective water allocation model with simple, spatially explicit statistical and rule-based models of landscape dynamics. Changes in environmental conditions are evaluated by a fuzzy habitat suitability index for Populus euphratica, which is the dominant species of the characteristic riverine Tugai forests. Water management scenarios can be developed by altering spatiotemporal water distribution in the delta area or the amount of water inflow into the delta. Outcomes of scenario analysis are qualitative comparisons of the ecological effects of different options for a time period of up to 28 years. The given approach utilizes different types of knowledge, from quantitative hydrological data to qualitative local expert knowledge. The main purpose of the tool is to integrate the knowledge in a comprehensive way to make it available for discussions on alternative policies in moderated workshops with stakeholders. In this article, the modules of the tool, their integration, and three hypothetical scenarios are presented. Based on the experience gained when developing the TUGAI tool, we propose that the general framework can be transferred to other areas where tradeoffs in water allocation between the environment and other water users are of major concern. The potential for a simulation tool to structure and inform a complex resource management situation by involving local experts and stakeholders in the development of possible future scenarios will become increasingly valuable for transparent and participatory resource management.     

Saving the Aral Sea

Summary This paper examines the causes of ecological disasters which affect the Aral Sea in the former Soviet Union. These lie in an incorrect strategy of economic development in the Soviet Central Asia and Kazakhstan, which pursues a goal of expansion of the irrigated areas under high water-consuming cotton and rice monocultures. These fail to consider the consequences for the Aral Sea or the social impact on the local population. The present tragic situation may be improved if recommendations described in the recently elaborated concepts for conservation and restoration of the Sea are taken as a blueprint for action. The Concept envisages transformation of the development strategy for the region, modernisation of the irrigation systems, afforestation and phyto-reclamation in the area. After endorsement by the Soviet legislative bodies, the proposed measures could become the core of a nation-wide government programme aiming at saving the Aral Sea and upgrading the living standards of local populations.Dr Arkady Levintanus is a geographer and senior research fellow at the Institute of Geography, Centre for International Projects, in the Ministry of Nature Utilisation and Environment Conservation in Moscow. He was recently, and when he wrote this paper, a UNEP consultant in Nairobi monitoring the project "Assistance in the preparation of an action plan for the rehabilitation of the Aral Sea".     

The Effects of Site Conditions and Mitigation Practices on Success of Establishing the Valley Elderberry Longhorn Beetle and Its Host Plant,Blue Elderberry

This study performed the first systematic evaluation of the success of habitat mitigation at establishing the threatened Valley elderberry longhorn beetle (Desmocerus californicus dimorphus) and its host plant, blue elderberry (Sambucus mexicana). Habitat mitigation performed through enforcement of the U.S. Endangered Species Act represents a tightly controlled form of habitat restoration, facilitating the evaluation of restoration practice. Restoration plantings of blue elderberry have been substantial in our study area, the Central Valley of California. Surveys of 30 mitigation sites and 16 nearby natural sites showed that mitigation sites were a fraction of the size of natural habitat areas (mean = 24%) and contained smaller shrubs. The beetle colonized 53% of mitigation sites and its populations were denser in sites with moderate levels of dead stems on elderberry shrubs, and moderate damage to elderberry stems and bark. This likely indicates that the beetle responds to stressed shrubs, which are likely to contain elevated levels of nitrogen. Beetle density also increased with the size and age of mitigation sites. This indicates a need to make restoration sites as large as possible and to monitor these sites for longer than current guidelines suggest, thereby allowing more time for convergence of natural and mitigation sites. Few factors examined here directly influenced the growth of elderberry shrubs, but elderberry grew more rapidly in sites closer to riparian areas, indicating that such sites should be favored for mitigation sites.     

油田含油污泥与芦苇共热解实验研究

以北方某油田湿地芦苇与油田某污水处理厂剩余污泥为对象,利用同步热分析仪及静态热解炉研究油田含油污泥及含油污泥-芦苇混合物的热解特性,将静态热解过程数据与同步热分析TG(热重分析)、DTG(微分热重分析)、DSC(差示扫描量热分析)曲线结合,计算了终止温度、产物量等。结果表明:不同含油污泥样品其产物生成率差别不大,热解TG、DTG和DSC曲线有较大差别,添加一定比例的芦苇可以使含油污泥热解过程变得匀速缓和,5%(质量比)的芦苇添加量可以使热解残渣恒重温度降低约25℃。混掺芦苇的样品残渣呈分散颗粒状,无聚结现象,对热解结焦将产生一定抑制作用。     

Economic and financial analysis of harvesting and utilization of river reed in the Okavango Delta, Botswana

The Okavango Delta, the largest Ramsar wetland site, is one of the most resource-rich ecosystems in Botswana. A range of resources, including reeds, contribute in various ways to the well-being of many of the communities through subsistence and income generation. The economic value of reeds and other resources found in wetlands has been poorly understood, leading to the perception that wetlands are wastelands, and have little or no economic values. Such resources are therefore likely to receive lower priority in conservation when evaluated against other alternative activities. The aim of this research was to determine the benefit and financial and economic viability of harvesting river reed in the Okavango Delta. Primary data were collected through a structured questionnaire administered at three villages in the Okavango Delta. Secondary data were collected from existing literature. Financial and economic analysis was undertaken using static and financial models. Market prices were used to calculate the net income generated from the sale of harvested reed. The measurement criteria for static models were the annual net cash income, net annual economic benefit, and return on investment (ROI), while those under the dynamic models were the net present value (NPV), benefit cost ratio (BCR), and the net benefit investment (N/K) ratio. It was more financially profitable and economically viable to harvest and sell reeds at Shorobe village (a village relatively close to the District economic centre, Maun), than Shakawe or Etsha-13.     

A Spatially Explicit Resource-Based Approach for Managing Stream Fishes in Riverscapes

The article describes a riverscape approach based on landscape ecology concepts, which aims at studying the multiscale relationships between the spatial pattern of stream fish habitat patches and processes depending on fish movements. A review of the literature shows that few operational methods are available to study this relationship due to multiple methodological and practical challenges inherent to underwater environments. We illustrated the approach with literature data on a cyprinid species (Barbus barbus) and an actual riverscape of the Seine River, France. We represented the underwater environment of fishes for different discharges using two-dimensional geographic information system-based maps of the resource habitat patches, defined according to activities (feeding, resting, and spawning). To quantify spatial patterns at nested levels (resource habitat patch, daily activities area, subpopulation area), we calculated their composition, configuration, complementation, and connectivity with multiple spatial analysis methods: patch metrics, moving-window analysis, and least cost modeling. The proximity index allowed us to evaluate habitat patches of relatively great value, depending on their spatial context, which contributes to the setting of preservation policies. The methods presented to delimit potential daily activities areas and subpopulation areas showed the potential gaps in the biological connectivity of the reach. These methods provided some space for action in restoration schemes.     

黄河三角洲外来入侵物种米草对滩涂昆虫的影响

2005年5,8,10月份对黄河三角洲无棣岔尖、东营市五号桩、小清河口米草分布区与土著植物芦苇分布区的昆虫作了调查,并辅以2003年同期调查资料,结果表明：米草分布区共鉴定出昆虫9种,芦苇分布区鉴定出49种,是米草分布区昆虫种数的5．4倍,米草分布区昆虫种数明显少于芦苇分布区,且优势类群存在很大差异,米草入侵对昆虫的结构、组成与多样性产生了影响。     

Quantitative assessment of tidal wetlands using remote sensing

Effective management of tidal wetlands requires periodic data on the boundaries, extent, and condition of the wetlands. In many states, wetlands are defined wholly, or in combination with other criteria, by the presence of particular emergent halophytic plants. Many important characteristics of the wetlands ecosystem are related directly to the production of emergent plant material or may be inferred from knowledge of the distribution of emergent plant species. Remote-sensing techniques have been applied to mapping of the distribution of wetland vegetation but not to quantitative evaluation of the condition of that vegetation.Recent research in the tidal wetlands of Delaware and elsewhere has shown that spectral canopy reflectance properties can be quantitatively related to the emergent green biomass ofSpartina alterniflora (salt marsh cord grass) throughout the peak growing season (April through September, in Delaware). Periodic measurements of this parameter could be applied to calculations of net aerial primary productivity for large areas ofS. alterniflora marsh in which conventional harvest techniques may be prohibitively time consuming. The method is species specific and, therefore, requires accurate discrimination ofS. alterniflora from other vegetation types. Observed seasonal changes in species spectral signatures are shown to have potential for improving multispectral categorization of tidal wetland vegetation types.     

Cultural ecology of Whitethroat (Sylvia communis) habitat management by farmers: winter in farmland trees and shrubs in Senegambia

The presence of Whitethroats and their potential invertebrate prey in farmland trees and shrubs was investigated. The management of this vegetation by farmers, and their motivation for that management, was explored using participatory techniques. Whitethroats were associated with Guiera senegalensis, the shrub species which supports most caterpillars and spiders. Farmers reported declines in trees and shrubs since the 1950s, loss of fallow areas, declines in soil fertility and crop yields, and increases in the use of fire for clearing fields. Trees are valued by people for their cultural and medicinal uses and some species used by Whitethroats and other birds have potential for restoring soil fertility, although this was not recognised by farmers. More sustainable use of savanna farmland could have both agronomic and wider conservation benefits, and the provision of information that accommodates farmers' cultural and economic incentives could benefit both farmers and wildlife.     

New perspectives on sea use management: initial findings from European experience with marine spatial planning

Increased development pressures on the marine environment and the potential for multiple use conflicts, arising as a result of the current expansion of offshore wind energy, fishing and aquaculture, dredging, mineral extraction, shipping, and the need to meet international and national commitments to biodiversity conservation, have led to increased interest in sea use planning with particular emphasis on marine spatial planning. Several European countries, on their own initiative or driven by the European Union's Marine Strategy and Maritime Policy, the Bergen Declaration of the North Sea Conference, and the EU Recommendation on Integrated Coastal Zone Management, have taken global leadership in implementing marine spatial planning. Belgium, The Netherlands, and Germany in the North Sea, and the United Kingdom in the Irish Sea, have already completed preliminary sea use plans and zoning proposals for marine areas within their national jurisdictions. This paper discusses the nature and context of marine spatial planning, the international legal and policy framework, and the increasing need for marine spatial planning in Europe. In addition, the authors review briefly three marine spatial planning initiatives in the North Sea and conclude with some initial lessons learned from these experiences.     

Salt-induced land and water degradation in the Aral Sea basin: A challenge to sustainable agriculture in Central Asia

Expansion of irrigated agriculture in the Aral Sea Basin in the second half of the twentieth century led to the conversion of vast tracks of virgin land into productive agricultural systems resulting in significant increases in employment opportunities and income generation. The positive effects of the development of irrigated agriculture were replete with serious environmental implications. Excessive use of irrigation water coupled with inadequate drainage systems has caused large‐scale land degradation and water quality deterioration in downstream parts of the basin, which is fed by two main rivers, the Amu‐Darya and Syr‐Darya. Recent estimates suggest that more than 50% of irrigated soils are salt‐affected and/or waterlogged in Central Asia. Considering the availability of natural and human resources in the Aral Sea Basin as well as the recent research addressing soil and water management, there is cause for cautious optimism. Research‐based interventions that have shown significant promise in addressing this impasse include: (1) rehabilitation of abandoned salt‐affected lands through halophytic plant species; (2) introduction of 35‐day‐old early maturing rice varieties to withstand ambient soil and irrigation water salinity; (3) productivity enhancement of high‐magnesium soils and water resources through calcium‐based soil amendments; (4) use of certain tree species as biological pumps to lower elevated groundwater levels in waterlogged areas; (5) optimal use of fertilizers, particularly those supplying nitrogen, to mitigate the adverse effects of soil and irrigation water salinity; (6) mulching of furrows under saline conditions to reduce evaporation and salinity buildup in the root zone; and (7) establishment of multipurpose tree and shrub species for biomass and renewable energy production. Because of water withdrawals for agriculture from two main transboundary rivers in the Aral Sea Basin, there would be a need for policy level interventions conducive for enhancing interstate cooperation to transform salt‐affected soil and saline water resources from an environmental and productivity constraint into an economic asset.     

Ecological Impact Assessment in Data-Poor Systems: A Case Study on Metapopulation Persistence

Legislation on the protection of biodiversity (e.g., European Union Habitat and Bird Directives) increasingly requires ecological impact assessment of human activities. However, knowledge and understanding of relevant ecological processes and species responses to different types of impact are often incomplete. In this paper we demonstrate with a case study how impact assessment can be carried out for situations where data are scarce but some expert knowledge is available. The case study involves two amphibian species, the great crested newt (Triturus cristatus) and the natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) in the nature reserve the Meinweg in the Netherlands, for which plans are being developed to reopen an old railway track called the Iron Rhine. We assess the effects of this railway track and its proposed alternatives (scenarios) on the metapopulation extinction time and the occupancy times of the patches for both species using a discrete-time stochastic metapopulation model. We quantify the model parameters using expert knowledge and extrapolated data. Because of our uncertainty about these parameter values, we perform a Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis. This yields an estimate of the probability distribution of the model predictions and insight into the contribution of each distinguished source of uncertainty to this probability distribution. We show that with a simple metapopulation model and an extensive uncertainty analysis it is possible to detect the least harmful scenario. The ranking of the different scenarios is consistent. Thus, uncertainty analysis can enhance the role of ecological impact assessment in decision making by making explicit to what extent incomplete knowledge affects predictions.     

An Analysis of Spatial Clustering and Implications for Wildlife Management: A Burrowing Owl Example

Analysis tools that combine large spatial and temporal scales are necessary for efficient management of wildlife species, such as the burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia). We assessed the ability of Ripley’s K-function analysis integrated into a geographic information system (GIS) to determine changes in burrowing owl nest clustering over two years at NASA Ames Research Center. Specifically, we used these tools to detect changes in spatial and temporal nest clustering before, during, and after conducting management by mowing to maintain low vegetation height at nest burrows. We found that the scale and timing of owl nest clustering matched the scale and timing of our conservation management actions over a short time frame. While this study could not determine a causal link between mowing and nest clustering, we did find that Ripley’s K and GIS were effective in detecting owl nest clustering and show promise for future conservation uses.     

Assessing representativeness of places for conservation reservation and heritage listing

Problems arising from application of the representative criterion for conservation and natural heritage evaluation are discussed. An ecological basis to this criterion is suggested that focuses on those key environmental factors dominating biotic response. A methodology is proposed that utilizes computer-based methods of establishing and interrogating spatial data bases (geographic information systems), environmental modeling, and numeric analysis. An example is presented illustrating some of the advantages and limitations of classification and dimension reduction techniques in both defining bioenvironments and displaying their spatial distribution. The advantages of this method for representativeness evaluation are that it maximizes the utility of available data, is explicit and repeatable, and enables large areas to be analyzed at relatively fine scales.     

Using a GIS model to assess terrestrial salamander response to alternative forest management plans.

A GIS model predicting the spatial distribution of terrestrial salamander abundance based on topography and forest age was developed using parameters derived from the literature. The model was tested by sampling salamander abundance across the full range of site conditions used in the model. A regression of the predictions of our GIS model against these sample data showed that the model has a modest but significant ability to predict both salamander abundance and mass per unit area. The model was used to assess the impacts of alternative management plans for the Hoosier National Forest (Indiana, USA) on salamanders. These plans differed in the spatial delineation of management areas where timber harvest was permitted, and the intensity of timber harvest within those management areas. The spatial pattern of forest openings produced by alternative forest management scenarios based on these plans was projected over 150 years using a timber-harvest simulator (HARVEST). We generated a predictive map of salamander abundance for each scenario over time, and summarized each map by calculating mean salamander abundance and the mean colonization distance (average distance from map cells with low predicted abundance to those with relatively high abundance). Projected salamander abundance was affected more by harvest rate (area harvested each decade) than by the management area boundaries. The alternatives had a varying effect on the mean distance salamanders would have to travel to colonize regenerating stands. Our GIS modeling approach is an example of a spatial analytical tool that could help resource management planners to evaluate the potential ecological impact of management alternatives.     

Integration of Environmental Assessment into the Regional Development Planning Process of the Galilee

/ The Galilee region on the northern edge of Israel constitutes more than 15% of the state's territory, supplies more than half of its drinking water needs, and is an important recreational resource and destination for Israelis. One of the main objectives of the plan for the Galilee was to devise a regional physical and economic development strategy for the years 1992-2007 that would arrest the trend of emigration of its residents, attract newly arrived immigrants to the region, and at the same time protect natural resources and environmental quality. This paper is limited to discussion of the environmental aspects of the plan. It analyzes spatial concepts for distribution of projected population growth, evaluates environmental impacts of alternative plans, and proposes a decision-making framework and tools for minimizing natural resources loss from development at the local level. Assessment of potential environmental impacts generated quantitative data of natural resources areas. Application of the data in the plan evaluation stage showed that the alternative that concentrated most of the new development in central Galilee was the second-best choice environmentally, but was preferred as the best choice for overall qualities. The planning study offers an alternative environmental impact assessment (EIA) process to the one presently used in Israel by incorporating environmental considerations at the initial plan-making stage and not at the plan-approval stage. It demonstrated that in order to be effective, environmental assessment and land-use planning should be seen as one effort that is integrated from the start and in each stage of the plan-making process.KEY WORDS: Environmental assessment; Development planning; Galilee     

Predicting the Impacts of Future Sea-Level Rise on an Endangered Lagomorph

Human-induced global climate change presents a unique and difficult challenge to the conservation of biodiversity. Despite increasing attention on global climate change, few studies have assessed the projected impacts of sea-level rise to threatened and endangered species. Therefore, we estimated the impacts of rising sea levels on the endangered Lower Keys marsh rabbit (Sylvilagus palustris hefneri) across its geographic distribution under scenarios of current conditions, low (0.3-m), medium (0.6-m), and high (0.9-m) sea-level rise. We also investigated the impacts of allowing vegetation to migrate upslope and not allowing migration and of two land-use planning decisions (protection and abandonment of human-dominated areas). Not surprisingly, under all simulations we found a general trend of decreasing total potential LKMR habitat with increasing sea-level rise. Not allowing migration and protecting human-dominated areas both tended to decrease potential LKMR habitat compared with allowing migration and abandoning human-dominated areas. In conclusion, conservation strategies at multiple scales need to be implemented in order to reduce the impact of global climate change on biodiversity and endangered species. At the regional level, managers must consider land-use planning needs that take into account the needs of both humans and biodiversity. Finally, at the local scale those agencies that are in charge of endangered species conservation and ecosystem management need to rethink static approaches to conservation or else stand by and watch ecosystems degrade and species go extinct. This can be accomplished by bioclimatic reserve systems where climatically underrepresented areas are included in conservation planning along with the standard concerns of threat, opportunity, connectivity, and viability.     

A Comparison of Spatial and Spectral Image Resolution for Mapping Invasive Plants in Coastal California

We explored the potential of detecting three target invasive species: iceplant (Carpobrotus edulis), jubata grass (Cortaderia jubata), and blue gum (Eucalyptus globulus) at Vandenberg Air Force Base, California. We compared the accuracy of mapping six communities (intact coastal scrub, iceplant invaded coastal scrub, iceplant invaded chaparral, jubata grass invaded chaparral, blue gum invaded chaparral, and intact chaparral) using four images with different combinations of spatial and spectral resolution: hyperspectral AVIRIS imagery (174 wavebands, 4 m spatial resolution), spatially degraded AVIRIS (174 bands, 30 m), spectrally degraded AVIRIS (6 bands, 4 m), and both spatially and spectrally degraded AVIRIS (6 bands, 30 m, i.e., simulated Landsat ETM data). Overall success rates for classifying the six classes was 75% (kappa 0.7) using full resolution AVIRIS, 58% (kappa 0.5) for the spatially degraded AVIRIS, 42% (kappa 0.3) for the spectrally degraded AVIRIS, and 37% (kappa 0.3) for the spatially and spectrally degraded AVIRIS. A true Landsat ETM image was also classified to illustrate that the results from the simulated ETM data were representative, which provided an accuracy of 50% (kappa 0.4). Mapping accuracies using different resolution images are evaluated in the context of community heterogeneity (species richness, diversity, and percent species cover). Findings illustrate that higher mapping accuracies are achieved with images possessing high spectral resolution, thus capturing information across the visible and reflected infrared solar spectrum. Understanding the tradeoffs in spectral and spatial resolution can assist land managers in deciding the most appropriate imagery with respect to target invasives and community characteristics.     

Using Global Datasets to Create Environmental Profiles for Data-Poor Regions: A Case from the Irrawaddy and Salween River Basins

The increasing availability of spatial data inspires the exploration of previously less-studied, yet regionally and nationally important areas, such as the Irrawaddy and Salween River Basins in Southeast Asia. This article documents our experience using global datasets to create environmental basin profiles in these two basins. Our approach draws on the concepts of freshwater vulnerability assessments that guided the selection of indicators. Data on land use, population distribution and fertilizer load were used. The unit of analysis was chosen to distinguish areas with similar bio-geographical characteristics, such as the critical delta areas. Results were further discussed for sub-areas that experience relatively the most pressure in terms of examined indicators within the studied area. The river mouths of both rivers had the most intensive land use and high population density. They are also home to important ecosystems and are sensitive to changes in upstream areas. Our study presents a concise and spatially distributed view of the environmental basin profiles of the Irrawaddy and Salween River Basins. The analysis also provides some interesting methodological insights about the potential of public macro-scale datasets for environmental assessment. The spatial approach allowed the analysis of different indicators, providing a platform for data integration as well as a visually powerful overview of the study area. Yet, the use of macro-scale datasets entails challenges. Despite improvements, the assessment process tends to be driven by the availability and quality of data, rather than by the actual research and management needs. The greatest utility of macro-scale datasets lies—at least in data-poor areas—in larger scale comparative analyses between the basins and their different sub-areas.