Using ADMS models for Air Quality Assessment and Management in China

1 INTRODUCTION Many cities and regions are undertaking studies of air quality in cities to determine both the current state of the environment and the effect of future economic and environmental strategies in order to manage local air quality. Often these studies are driven by legislation such as the European Union requirement to model agglomerations or the Chinese requirements to study air quality capacity and to forecast air quality. ADMS-Urban is the most widely used advanced dispers…     

A study of the atmospheric dispersion of a high release of krypton-85 above a complex coastal terrain, comparison with the predictions of Gaussian models (Briggs, Doury, ADMS4)

Atmospheric releases of krypton-85, from the nuclear fuel reprocessing plant at the AREVA NC facility at La Hague (France), were used to test Gaussian models of dispersion. In 2001-2002, the French Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety (IRSN) studied the atmospheric dispersion of 15 releases, using krypton-85 as a tracer for plumes emitted from two 100-m-high stacks. Krypton-85 is a chemically inert radionuclide. Krypton-85 air concentration measurements were performed on the ground in the downwind direction, at distances between 0.36 and 3.3 km from the release, by neutral or slightly unstable atmospheric conditions. The standard deviation for the horizontal dispersion of the plume and the Atmospheric Transfer Coefficient (ATC) were determined from these measurements. The experimental results were compared with calculations using first generation (Doury, Briggs) and second generation (ADMS 4.0) Gaussian models. The ADMS 4.0 model was used in two configurations; one takes account of the effect of the built-up area, and the other the effect of the roughness of the surface on the plume dispersion. Only the Briggs model correctly reproduced the measured values for the width of the plume, whereas the ADMS 4.0 model overestimated it and the Doury model underestimated it. The agreement of the models with measured values of the ATC varied according to distance from the release point. For distances less than 2 km from the release point, the ADMS 4.0 model achieved the best agreement between model and measurement; beyond this distance, the best agreement was achieved by the Briggs and Doury models.     

Seize the Opportunity and Meet the Challenge to Push China's Sustainable Development Strategy to a New Stage

Abstract

ADMS-Urban is the most widely used advanced dispersion model for urban areas, being used extensively in China and worldwide, providing a practical tool for assessing and managing urban air quality. In this paper we briefly describe the ADMS dispersion models and give an overview of their use in China. And it describes in more detail the use of ADMS-Urban in Fushun in Liaoning province and in Jinan in Shangdong province respectively, for studies of urban air quality. Finally the conclusions are presented.     

城市开发区大气环境影响评价研究--以扬州市经济技术开发区为例

对开发区进行环境影响评价是开发区可持续发展的需要。大气作为环境的重要要素，其状况优劣对开发区的发展及布局都产生较大的影响，因而大气环境影响评价是环境影响评价体系中不可缺少的组成部分。如何进行开发区的大气环境影响评价，国内已取得了不少经验，但仍在探索之中。对城市开发区大气环境影响评价的内容和方法进行了探讨；以扬州市经济技术开发区为例，进行了分析、预测和评价，对环境评价中的公众参与环节进行了有益的探索与尝试；对开发区进行了大气功能区划分，给出了开发区大气主要污染物总量控制方案；最后，针对扬州市经济技术开发区的实情，在产业发展方向、项目规划布局、能源使用、绿化、环境管理以及土地管理等方面提出了环境保护的对策和建议。     

Modelling the distribution of plutonium in the Pacific Ocean

An Oceanic General Circulation Model (OGCM) including a plutonium scavenging model as well as an advection-diffusion model has been developed for modelling the distribution of plutonium in the Pacific Ocean. Calculated 239, 240Pu water profile concentrations and 239, 240Pu inventories in water and sediment of the Pacific Ocean have showed a reasonable agreement with the experimental results. The presence of local fallout plutonium in central North Pacific waters has been confirmed. The observed 240Pu/239Pu mass ratios confirm that plutonium originating from local fallout from nuclear weapons tests carried out at Bikini and Enewetak Atolls is more rapidly removed from surface waters to deeper waters than plutonium originating from global fallout. The developed OGCM can be used for modelling the dispersion of other non-conservative tracers in the ocean as well.     

Urban meteorological modelling for nuclear emergency preparedness

The main objectives of the current EU project “Integrated Systems for Forecasting Urban Meteorology, Air Pollution and Population Exposure” (FUMAPEX) are the improvement of meteorological forecasts for urban areas, the connection of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to urban air pollution and population dose models, the building of improved urban air quality information and forecasting systems, and their application in cities in various European climates. In addition to the forecast of the worst air-pollution episodes in large cities, the potential use of improved weather forecasts for nuclear emergency management in urban areas, in case of hazardous releases from nuclear accidents or terror acts, is considered. Such use of NWP data is tested for the Copenhagen metropolitan area and the Øresund region.The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) is running an experimental version of the HIRLAM NWP model over Zealand including the Copenhagen metropolitan area with a horizontal resolution of 1.4 km, thus approaching the city-scale. This involves 1-km resolution physiographic data with implications for the urban surface parameters, e.g. surface fluxes, roughness length and albedo. For the city of Copenhagen, the enhanced high-resolution NWP forecasting will be provided to demonstrate the improved dispersion forecasting capabilities of the Danish nuclear emergency preparedness decision–support system, the Accident Reporting and Guidance Operational System (ARGOS), used by the Danish Emergency Management Agency (DEMA).Recently, ARGOS has been extended with a capability of real-time calculation of regional-scale atmospheric dispersion of radioactive material from accidental releases. This is effectuated through on-line interfacing with the Danish Emergency Response Model of the Atmosphere (DERMA), which is run at DMI. For local-scale modelling of atmospheric dispersion, ARGOS utilises the Local-Scale Model Chain (LSMC), which makes use of high-resolution DMI-HIRLAM NWP model data provided to DEMA by DMI four times a day under operational surveillance and covering Denmark and surroundings. The integration of DERMA in ARGOS is effectuated through automated on-line digital communication and exchange of data. The calculations are carried out in parallel for each NWP model to which DMI has access, thereby providing a mini-ensemble of dispersion forecasts for the emergency management.     

Air quality in the 21st century: community outreach in North Central Texas

Public education campaigns, to be successful, must repeat simple, consistent messages over time, using various sources and media. During the 2000, 2001, and 2002 ozone seasons, the North Central Texas Council of Governments (NCTCOG) employed a four-pronged, multimedia approach to educate the public about air quality in the Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) region. The four-pronged approach included several varied information sources:The new Air Pollution Watch/Warning system based on public health and designed using standard meteorological terminology with notices delivered via e-mail, over the radio, during TV weather forecasts, and on electronic road signs.A revamped Web page, including information about current air quality, ozone exceedances, clean air public meetings, and how to "Do Your Share for Cleaner Air".A PowerPoint presentation used to explain the basics of ozone air pollution, the new Air Pollution Watch/Warning system, and the new Dallas/Fort Worth Clean Air Plan to a variety of constituencies, including the media, scientific/technical/academic groups, elected officials, and community/civic organizations.Newsletter updates, published in the Environmental Resources Department's InsidER (with a circulation of around 1500), to educate and keep the public up-to-date about various air quality issues.This paper provides details about the four-pronged approach, and how it incorporates principles of successful public education campaigns.     

Modelling future impacts of air pollution using the multi-scale UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM)

Integrated assessment modelling has evolved to support policy development in relation to air pollutants and greenhouse gases by providing integrated simulation tools able to produce quick and realistic representations of emission scenarios and their environmental impacts without the need to re-run complex atmospheric dispersion models. The UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM) has been developed to investigate strategies for reducing UK emissions by bringing together information on projected UK emissions of SO₂, NO_x, NH₃, PM₁₀ and PM_2.5, atmospheric dispersion, criteria for protection of ecosystems, urban air quality and human health, and data on potential abatement measures to reduce emissions, which may subsequently be linked to associated analyses of costs and benefits. We describe the multi-scale model structure ranging from continental to roadside, UK emission sources, atmospheric dispersion of emissions, implementation of abatement measures, integration with European-scale modelling, and environmental impacts. The model generates outputs from a national perspective which are used to evaluate alternative strategies in relation to emissions, deposition patterns, air quality metrics and ecosystem critical load exceedance. We present a selection of scenarios in relation to the 2020 Business-As-Usual projections and identify potential further reductions beyond those currently being planned.     

Using radiotracer techniques for coastal hydrodynamic model evaluation

A three-dimensional (3D) water circulation and contaminant transport model of Manila Bay has been developed with the aim of better understanding the formation and movement of harmful algal blooms. Radiotracer techniques were used to evaluate the model by recording the dispersion of a tracer at depths of 2 and 15 m near the injection point. The selected tracer was 99mTc eluted from a molybdenum/technetium medical generator. The rationale for the choice of the tracer and the location of the injection is discussed. At 2 m the transport was dominated by the prevailing winds, and at 15 m by tidally induced currents. The development of the hydrodynamic model and its experimental evaluation were iterative processes. The experimental study confirmed the need for full 3D modelling of Manila Bay; quantified the impact of the prevailing wind field on contaminant dispersion near the injection point; and allowed the calculation of transverse dispersivity to guide the selection of parameter values used in the overall model.     

Environmental impact assessment application in infrastructural projects in Malawi

The current increase in the number of development projects in Malawi is leading to loss of natural resources and the general degradation of the environment. Both the Malawi Environmental Management Act of 1996 and the Guidelines for Environmental Impact Assessment of 1997, prescribe a list of infrastructural projects that must undergo environmental impact assessment (EIA) before their implementation. This study identifies the key limitations of EIA application to infrastructural projects in Malawi. A desktop study used to gather information in this study involved a review of several documents such as EIA reports, policies and laws, books, journals and internet articles. Primary data was obtained from policymakers, contractors, EIA practitioners and the general public using both structured and unstructured interviews, as well as through questionnaires. Focus group discussions and direct observations were employed wherever necessary in the study. Major limitations to successful EIA in infrastructural projects in Malawi include: (1) limited experience and practice of EIA practitioners; (2) cost of EIA process; (3) limited links between EIA and urban planning procedures; (4) lack of political will; (5) project delays; (6) lack of effective monitoring and auditing, (7) lack of data, especially those to be used in predictive models. This violates the principles of sustainability science and the international best practices for EIA that were developed by the International Association for Impact Assessment. It is recommended that active environmental management should actively involve the interests of all stakeholders, and that follow up of predicted environmental impacts resulting from any project should entail monitoring, auditing and reporting.     

Differentiating the effects of fine and coarse particles on daily mortality in Shanghai, China

The findings on health effects of ambient fine particles (PM2.5) and coarse particles (PM10-2.5) remain inconsistent. In China, PM2.5 and PM10-2.5 are not the criteria air pollutants, and their monitoring data are scarce. There have been no epidemiological studies of health effects of PM2.5 and PM10-2.5 simultaneously in China. We conducted a time series study to examine the acute effects of PM2.5 and PM10-2.5 on daily mortality in Shanghai, China from Mar. 4, 2004 to Dec. 31, 2005. We used the generalized additive model (GAM) with penalized splines to analyze the mortality, air pollution and covariate data. The average concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10-2.5 were 56.4 microg/m3 and 52.3 microg/m3 in our study period, and PM2.5 constituted around 53.0% of the PM10 mass. Compared with the Global Air Quality Guidelines set by World Health Organization (10 microg/m3 for annual mean) and U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standards (15 microg/m3 for annual mean), the PM2.5 level in Shanghai was much higher. We found that PM2.5 was associated with the death rates from all causes and from cardiorespiratory diseases in Shanghai. We did not find a significant effect of PM10-2.5 on mortality outcomes. A10 microg/m3 increase in the 2-day moving average (lag01) concentration of PM2.5 corresponded to 0.36% (95% CI 0.11%, 0.61%), 0.41% (95% CI 0.01%, 0.82%) and 0.95% (95% CI 0.16%, 1.73%) increase of total, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. For PM10-2.5, the effects were attenuated and less precise. Our analyses provide the first statistically significant evidence in China that PM2.5 has an adverse effect on population health and strengthen the rationale for further limiting levels of PM2.5 in outdoor air in Shanghai.     

Air quality management in the WHO European Region--results of a quality assurance and control programme on air quality monitoring (1994-2004)

Since the last decade the WHO Collaborating Centre for Air Quality Management and Air Pollution Control, Berlin, Germany, operates a quality assurance and control (QA/QC) programme on air quality monitoring in the WHO European Region. As main activity Intercomparison workshops have been established for air monitoring network laboratories on a regular basis to harmonise air quality measurements, analysis and calibration techniques. 36 air hygiene laboratories of public health and environmental institutions of 24 countries participated in twelve Intercomparisons between 1994 and 2004. The majority was carried out for NO, NO(2), SO(2) and O(3). The results were predominantly satisfactory for automatic methods. The results of manual methods were mainly in a good, and for several concentration levels partly very good accordance with the data obtained by the monitors.     

Modified approach to modelling radiological consequences from releases into the marine environment

One of the general assumptions for box modelling of the dispersion of radionuclides in marine systems relates to instantaneous mixing in each box which, in turn, results in practical calculations involving instantaneous mixing in the whole of oceanic space. A new approach to box modelling, which includes dispersion of radionuclides as a function of time, was therefore developed in order to provide a better and more realistic/physical approximation to reality relative to traditional box modelling. The novel and significant practical features of the approach are discussed. Calculations of concentrations of radionuclides in the marine environment and doses to man for some scenarios indicate differences of up to orders of magnitude between the traditional and new approaches to box modelling.     

Revision of deposition and weathering parameters for the ingestion dose module (ECOSYS) of the ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems

The ECOSYS model is the ingestion dose model integrated in the ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems for nuclear emergency management. The parameters used in this model have however not been updated in recent years, where the level of knowledge on various environmental processes has increased considerably. A Nordic work group has carried out a series of evaluations of the general validity of current ECOSYS default parameters. This paper specifically discusses the parameter revisions required with respect to the modelling of deposition and natural weathering of contaminants on agricultural crops, to enable the trustworthy prognostic modelling that is essential to ensure justification and optimisation of countermeasure strategies. New modelling approaches are outlined, since it was found that current ECOSYS approaches for deposition and natural weathering could lead to large prognostic errors.     

鄱阳湖流域排污权初始分配模式的比较研究

排污权初始分配是排污权交易的起点和基础,在分配模式和实证研究方面需要加强。采用地区人口法、经济总量法、历史排污量法、环境容量法和综合分配法5种模式研究了鄱阳湖流域11个地市水污染物化学需氧量(COD)与氨氮的初始排污权分配。结果表明:COD和氨氮初始排污权在地市之间的分配格局相似;南昌、新余与鹰潭3市按经济总量模式分配的排污量明显高于其它模式,上饶、吉安两市人口分配模式高于其它模式,景德镇、九江两市历史排污量模式高于其它模式,赣州市环境容量模式高于其它模式,宜春市综合模式高于其它模式。综合分配模式为赣州市排污权总量最高,南昌、九江、吉安、宜春、抚州和上饶6市次之,景德镇、萍乡、新余、鹰潭4市最低。总体来看,排污权配额因分配模式不同而有所差异,综合分配模式得到的初始排污权最为合理。建议鄱阳湖流域严格执行综合分配模式下的各地市初始排污权分配额度,确保区域经济社会与生态环境的协调发展。     

Integrated health impact assessment of travel behaviour: Model exploration and application to a fuel price increase

Transportation policy measures often aim to change travel behaviour towards more efficient transport. While these policy measures do not necessarily target health, these could have an indirect health effect.We evaluate the health impact of a policy resulting in an increase of car fuel prices by 20% on active travel, outdoor air pollution and risk of road traffic injury. An integrated modelling chain is proposed to evaluate the health impact of this policy measure. An activity-based transport model estimated movements of people, providing whereabouts and travelled kilometres. An emission- and dispersion model provided air quality levels (elemental carbon) and a road safety model provided the number of fatal and non-fatal traffic victims. We used kilometres travelled while walking or cycling to estimate the time in active travel. Differences in health effects between the current and fuel price scenario were expressed in Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY).A 20% fuel price increase leads to an overall gain of 1650 (1010–2330) DALY. Prevented deaths lead to a total of 1450 (890–2040) Years Life Gained (YLG), with better air quality accounting for 530 (180–880) YLG, fewer road traffic injuries for 750 (590–910) YLG and active travel for 170 (120–250) YLG. Concerning morbidity, mostly road safety led to 200 (120–290) fewer Years Lived with Disability (YLD), while air quality improvement only had a minor effect on cardiovascular hospital admissions. Air quality improvement and increased active travel mainly had an impact at older age, while traffic safety mainly affected younger and middle-aged people.This modelling approach illustrates the feasibility of a comprehensive health impact assessment of changes in travel behaviour. Our results suggest that more is needed than a policy rising car fuel prices by 20% to achieve substantial health gains. While the activity-based model gives an answer on what the effect of a proposed policy is, the focus on health may make policy integration more tangible. The model can therefore add to identifying win–win situations for both transport and health.     

Development of an aggregate Air Quality Index for an urban Mediterranean agglomeration: relation to potential health effects

It is very useful for the authorities and the people to have daily easy understandable information about the levels of air pollution and the proper measures to be taken for the protection of human health. In this paper we develop an aggregate Air Quality Index (AQI) based on the combined effects of five criteria pollutants (CO, SO2, NO2, O3 and PM10) taking into account the European standards. We evaluate it for each monitoring station and for the whole area of Athens, Greece, an area with serious air pollution problems. A comparison was made with a modified version of Environmental Protection Agency/USA (USEPA) maximum value AQI model adjusted for European conditions. Hourly data of air pollutants from 4 monitoring stations, available during 1983-1999, were analysed for the development of the proposed index. The analysis reveals the Athenian population exposure reaches high levels and during last years a gradual increase of days with unhealthy conditions was detected. The proposed aggregate model estimates more effectively the exposure of citizens comparing with the modified USEPA maximum value model, because counts the impact of all the pollutants measured. Towards the informing and protection of the citizens in an urban agglomeration this model advantages as a political and administrative tool for the design of abatement strategies and effective measures of intervention.     

中国环境影响评价中公众参与存在的问题与对策

公众参与是环境影响评价中的重要内容,在环境影响评价中发挥着特殊作用。针对目前中国环境影响评价中公众参与的实施状况,提出了公众参与意识不强、参与形式单一、信息公开不充分和公众意见未受到足够重视等一系列问题,并从宏观及具体操作上提出加强环保宣传教育、采取多样化的参与形式、建立完善的环境信息公开制度和认真对待公众反馈意见等相关的有效对策。