Arctic Climate Tipping Points

There is widespread concern that anthropogenic global warming will trigger Arctic climate tipping points. The Arctic has a long history of natural, abrupt climate changes, which together with current observations and model projections, can help us to identify which parts of the Arctic climate system might pass future tipping points. Here the climate tipping points are defined, noting that not all of them involve bifurcations leading to irreversible change. Past abrupt climate changes in the Arctic are briefly reviewed. Then, the current behaviour of a range of Arctic systems is summarised. Looking ahead, a range of potential tipping phenomena are described. This leads to a revised and expanded list of potential Arctic climate tipping elements, whose likelihood is assessed, in terms of how much warming will be required to tip them. Finally, the available responses are considered, especially the prospects for avoiding Arctic climate tipping points.     

Foreword

We provide an introduction to the volume The Arctic in the Earth System perspective: the role of tipping points. The terms tipping point and tipping element are described and their role in current science, general debates, and the Arctic are elucidated. From a wider perspective, the volume focuses upon the role of humans in the Arctic component of the Earth system and in particular the envelope for human existence, the Arctic ecosystems. The Arctic climate tipping elements, the tipping elements in Arctic ecosystems and societies, and the challenges of governance and anticipation are illuminated through short summaries of eight publications that derive from the Arctic Frontiers conference in 2011 and the EU FP7 project Arctic Tipping Points. Then some ideas based upon resilience thinking are developed to show how wise system management could ease pressures on Arctic systems in order to keep them away from tipping points.     

Bird on the wire: Landscape planning considering costs and benefits for bird populations coexisting with power lines

Power-line grids are increasingly expanding worldwide, as well as their negative impacts on avifauna, namely the direct mortality through collision and electrocution, the reduction of breeding performance, and the barrier effect. On the other hand, some bird species can apparently benefit from the presence of power lines, for example perching for hunting purposes or nesting on electricity towers. In this perspective essay, we reviewed the scientific literature on both costs and benefits for avifauna coexisting with power lines. Overall, we detected a generalized lack of studies focusing on these costs or benefits at a population level. We suggest that a switch in research approach to a larger spatio-temporal scale would greatly improve our knowledge about the actual effects of power lines on bird populations. This research approach would facilitate suitable landscape planning encompassing both mitigation of costs and promotion of benefits for bird populations coexisting with power lines. For example, the strategic route planning of electricity infrastructures would limit collision risk or barrier effects for threatened bird populations. Concurrently, this strategic route planning would promote the range expansion of threatened populations of other bird species, by providing nesting structures in treeless but potentially suitable landscapes. We suggest establishing a collaborative dialogue among the scientific community, governments, and electricity companies, with the aim to produce a win–win scenario in which both biodiversity conservation and infrastructure development are integrated in a common strategy.     

Tipping Elements in the Arctic Marine Ecosystem

The Arctic marine ecosystem contains multiple elements that present alternative states. The most obvious of which is an Arctic Ocean largely covered by an ice sheet in summer versus one largely devoid of such cover. Ecosystems under pressure typically shift between such alternative states in an abrupt, rather than smooth manner, with the level of forcing required for shifting this status termed threshold or tipping point. Loss of Arctic ice due to anthropogenic climate change is accelerating, with the extent of Arctic sea ice displaying increased variance at present, a leading indicator of the proximity of a possible tipping point. Reduced ice extent is expected, in turn, to trigger a number of additional tipping elements, physical, chemical, and biological, in motion, with potentially large impacts on the Arctic marine ecosystem.     

Pesticide Environmental Accounting: a method for assessing the external costs of individual pesticide applications

The Pesticide Environmental Accounting (PEA) tool provides a monetary estimate of environmental and health impacts per hectare-application for any pesticide. The model combines the Environmental Impact Quotient method and a methodology for absolute estimates of external pesticide costs in UK, USA and Germany. For many countries resources are not available for intensive assessments of external pesticide costs. The model converts external costs of a pesticide in the UK, USA and Germany to Mediterranean countries. Economic and policy applications include estimating impacts of pesticide reduction policies or benefits from technologies replacing pesticides, such as sterile insect technique. The system integrates disparate data and approaches into a single logical method. The assumptions in the system provide transparency and consistency but at the cost of some specificity and precision, a reasonable trade-off for a method that provides both comparative estimates of pesticide impacts and area-based assessments of absolute impacts.     

Quantifying trade-offs between ecological gains,economic costs,and landowners’ preferences in boreal mire protection

Private land often encompasses biodiversity features of high conservation value, but its protection is not straightforward. Commonly, landowners’ perspectives are rightfully allowed to influence conservation actions. This unlikely comes without consequences on biodiversity or other aspects such as economic considerations, but these consequences are rarely quantitatively considered in decision-making. In the context of boreal mire protection in Finland, we report how acknowledging landowners’ resistance to protection changes the combination of mires selected to conservation compared to ignoring landowners’ opinions. Using spatial prioritization, we quantify trade-offs arising between the amount of landowners’ resistance, protected biodiversity, and financial costs in different conservation scenarios. Results show that the trade-offs cannot be fully avoided. Nevertheless, we show that the systematic examination of the trade-offs opens up options to alleviate them. This can promote the evaluation of different conservation policy outcomes, enabling better-informed conservation decisions and more effective and socially sustainable allocation of conservation resources.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01530-0.     

Corrosion Problems and Solutions For Electrostatic Precipitators

Travel on unpaved public roads is the single largest anthropogenic source of emissions of airborne particles in the U.S. The average impact of this source on average annual mean total suspended particulate (TSP) concentrations varies from 0.05 μg/m³ (Alaska) to 11 μg/m³ (Pennsylvania). When compared by contributions to the variance in state to state TSP levels, their impact is as great as the impact of emissions from all conventional sources. Common emission control methods include paving, oiling, speed reduction, watering, and application of calcium chloride. Total annual emissions are, in most cases, most economically reduced by either speed control or paving, with expected average control costs of less than $0.50/lb of emissions reductions. For most roads with average daily traffic flows above 100 vehicles per day, paving is shown to control emissions at average costs of less than $0.05/lb. In some situations, the costs of paving are more than offset by reductions in maintenance costs. Thus it would appear that, even accounting for the order of magnitude lower impact on statewide average concentration per ton of particles emitted from open sources, control of dust emissions from unpaved roads offers an economical means for reducing ambient TSP levels.     

Detecting and Coping with Disruptive Shocks in Arctic Marine Systems: A Resilience Approach to Place and People

It seems inevitable that the ongoing and rapid changes in the physical environment of the marine Arctic will push components of the region’s existing social-ecological systems—small and large—beyond tipping points and into new regimes. Ongoing changes include warming, freshening, acidification, and alterations to food web structure. In anticipation we pose three distinct but interrelated challenges: (1) to explore existing connectivities within components of the marine system; (2) to seek indicators (if they exist) of approaching regime change through observation and modeling; and (3) to build functional resilience into existing systems through adaptation-oriented policy and to have in hand transformative options when tipping points are crossed and new development trajectories are required. Each of the above challenges is scale dependent, and each requires a much deeper understanding than we currently have of connectivity within existing systems and their response to external forcing. Here, we argue from a global perspective the need to understand the Arctic’s role in an increasingly nonlinear world; then describe emerging evidence from new observations on the connectivity of processes and system components from the Canada Basin and subarctic seas surrounding northern North America; and finally posit an approach founded in “resilience thinking” to allow northern residents living in small coastal communities to participate in the observation, adaption and—if necessary—transformation of the social-ecological system with which they live.     

Applicability of energy-positive net-zero water management in Alaska: technology status and case study

Challenges of water and wastewater management in Alaska include the potential need for above-grade and freeze-protected piping, high unit energy costs and, in many rural areas, low population density and median annual income. However, recently developed net-zero water (NZW), i.e., nearly closed-loop, direct potable water reuse systems, can retain the thermal energy in municipal wastewater, producing warm treated potable water without the need for substantial water re-heating, heat pumping or transfer, or additional energy conversion. Consequently, these systems are projected to be capable of saving more energy than they use in water treatment and conveyance, in the temperate USA. In this paper, NZW technology is reviewed in terms of potential applicability in Alaska by performing a hypothetical case study for the city of Fairbanks, Alaska. Results of this paper study indicate that in municipalities of Alaska with local engineering and road access, the use of NZW systems may provide an energy-efficient water service option. In particular, case study modeling suggests hot water energy savings are equivalent to five times the energy used for treatment, much greater savings than in mid-latitudes, due largely to the substantially higher energy needed for heating water from a conventional treatment system and lack of need for freeze-protected piping. Further study of the applicability of NZW technology in cold regions, with expanded evaluation in terms of system-wide lifecycle cost, is recommended.     

The Costs of Meeting the Environmental Objectives for the Baltic Sea: A Review of the Literature

The environmental targets of the recently agreed Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) targets are likely associated with a considerable cost, which motivates a search for low-cost policies. The following review shows there is a substantial literature on cost-efficient nutrient reduction strategies, including suggestions regarding low-cost abatement, but actual policies at international and national scale tend to be considerably more expensive due to lack of instruments that ensure a cost-efficient allocation of abatement across countries and sectors. Economic research on the costs of reducing hazardous substances and oil spill damages in the Baltic Sea is not available, but lessons from the international literature suggest that resources could be used more efficiently if appropriate analysis is undertaken. Common to these pollution problems is the need to ensure that all countries in the region are provided with positive incentives to implement international agreements.     

A Holistic Approach to Hydrocarbon Source Allocation in the Subtidal Sediments of Prince William Sound,Alaska, Embayments

Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska has an extensive history of human and industrial activity that has produced a complex organic geochemistry record in subtidal sediments of embayments throughout the sound. In addition to contributions from recent oil spills and a regional background of natural petroleum hydrocarbons originating from active hydrocarbon systems in the northern Gulf of Alaska (GOA), pyrogenic and petrogenic PAH were, and continue to be introduced to subtidal sediments at numerous sites of past and present human activities. These sites include villages, fish hatcheries, fish camps and recreational campsites in addition to abandoned settlements, canneries, sawmills, and mines. A holistic approach is used to fingerprint and quantify hydrocarbon contributions from multiple sources in a sediment sample. It involves acquiring a comprehensive understanding of the history of the area to identify potential sources, collection of representative samples, and accurate quantitative analyses of the source and sediment samples for a suite of diagnostic PAH analytes and chemical biomarker compounds. Unlike the deepwater sediments of the sound and GOA, the TOC tool, described elsewhere, does not work as well in some restricted embayments due to their high contents of recent organic matter (ROM). The current study employs a constrained least-squares algorithm to allocate hydrocarbon sources contributing to subtidal sediments collected from PWS embayments in 1991, 1999 and 2000. Results show that sources contributing to the natural petrogenic background are present in the embayments, pyrogenic hydrocarbons including combustion products of diesel are important where human activity was high, and petroleum produced from the Monterey Formation (CA) is present locally. Oil and asphalt shipped from California were widely used for fuel and construction prior to development of the Cook Inlet and North Slope fields. In certain locations that were oiled in 1989, low levels of highly degraded Alaska North Slope crude oil residues attributable to the Exxon Valdez spill remain.     

Quantifying anthropogenic threats to orchids using the IUCN Red List

Orchids are diverse, occur in a wide range of habitats and dominate threatened species lists, but which orchids are threatened, where and by what? Using the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List, we assessed the range and diversity of threats to orchids globally including identifying four threat syndromes: (1) terrestrial orchids in forests that are endemic to a country and threatened by illegal collecting; (2) orchids threatened by climate change, pollution, transportation and disturbance/development for tourism, and recreation activities, often in East Asia; (3) epiphytic orchids in Sub-Saharan Africa including Madagascar with diverse threats; and (4) South and Southeast Asia orchids threatened by land clearing for shifting agriculture. Despite limitations in the Red List data, the results highlight how conservation efforts can focus on clusters of co-occurring threats in regions while remaining aware of the trifecta of broad threats from plant collecting, land clearing and climate change.     

Life Cycle Analyses and Resource Assessments

Prof. Ulgiati stresses that we should always use an ecosystem view when transforming energy from one form to another. Sustainable growth and development of both environmental and human-dominated systems require optimum use of available resources for maximum power output. We have to adapt to the laws of nature because nature has to take care of all the waste products we produce. The presentation addresses a much needed shift away from linear production and consumption pattern, toward reorganization of economies and lifestyle that takes complexity—of resources, of the environment and of the economy—into proper account. The best way to reach maximum yield from the different kinds of biomass is to use biorefineries. Biorefinery is defined as the sustainable processing of biomass into a spectrum of marketable products like heat, power, fuels, chemicals, food, feed, and materials. However, biomass from agricultural land must be used for the production of food and not fuel. Prof. Voss focuses on the sustainability of energy supply chains and energy systems. Life cycle analyses (LCA) provides the conceptual framework for a comprehensive comparative evaluation of energy supply options with regard to their resource requirements as well as the health and environmental impact. Full scope LCA considers not only the emissions from plant operation, construction, and decommissioning but also the environmental burdens and resource requirements associated with the entire lifetime of all relevant upstream and downstream processes within the energy chain. This article describes the results of LCA analyses for state-of-the-art heating and electricity systems as well as of advanced future systems. Total costs are used as a measure for the overall resource consumption.     

Visions for the North Sea: The Societal Dilemma Behind Specifying Good Environmental Status

We augment discussions about the Good Environmental Status of the North Sea by developing two extreme visions and assessing their societal benefits. One vision (‘Then’) assumes restoration of benthic functioning; we contend that trawling had already degraded the southern North Sea a century ago. Available information is used to speculate about benthic functioning in a relatively undisturbed southern North Sea. The second vision (‘Now’) draws on recent benthic functioning. The supply of five ecosystem services, supported by benthic functioning, is discussed. ‘Then’ offers confidence in the sustainable supply of diverse services but restoration of past function is uncertain and likely to be paired with costs, notably trawling restraints. ‘Now’ delivers known and valued services but sustained delivery is threatened by, for example, climate change. We do not advocate either vision. Our purpose is to stimulate debate about what society wants, and might receive, from the future southern North Sea.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-014-0536-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Avoiding conflicts over Africa's water resources

Some 85% of Africa's water resources are comprised of large river basins that are shared between several countries. High rates of population growth accompanied by continued increases in the demand for water have resulted in several countries passing the point where the scarcity of water supplies effectively limits further development. Present population trends and patterns of water use suggest that more African countries will exceed the limits of their economically usable, land-based water resources before 2025. Normally, water allocation and distribution priorities within a country are aligned with national development objectives. While this may achieve national "water security" objectives, greater emphasis needs to be placed on regional efforts to ensure that the available water resources are used to derive sustainable long-term benefits for the peoples of Africa as a whole. Ideally, each country's water-resource management strategy needs to be aligned with that of its neighbors if peace and prosperity are to be maintained and conflict is to be avoided in the region.     

Assessment of the phototoxicity of weathered Alaska North Slope crude oil to juvenile pink salmon

Petroleum products are known to have greater toxicity to the translucent embryos and larvae of aquatic organisms in the presence of ultraviolet radiation (UV) compared to toxicity determined in tests performed under standard laboratory lighting with minimal UV. This study assessed the acute phototoxicity of the water accommodated fractions of weathered Alaska North Slope crude oil (ANS) to juvenile pink salmon, which are a heavily pigmented life stage. Fish in the highest ANS treatments exhibited melanosis, less mobility, reduced startle response, erratic swimming, and loss of equilibrium. Gills from fish exposed to ANS had elevated levels of hydroperoxides in oil-only, UV-only, and oil+UV treatments compared to control fish, which was indicative of increased lipid peroxidation in gill tissue. Under the test conditions of moderate salinity, low UV and high short-term oil exposure there were no indications of photoenhanced toxicity as assessed by elevation of mortality, behavioral impairment, or gill lipid peroxidation in oil+UV treatments. The results of this study suggest that pink salmon may be at less risk from photoenhanced toxicity compared to the translucent early-life stages of several other Alaska species.     

Factors influencing regional municipal solid waste management strategies

Although regionalization policies have been proven as good strategies for municipal solid waste (MSW) management in previous studies, the optimal allocation of the waste stream is significantly affected by several influential factors, thus further investigation of the impacts of these factors on regional MSW management strategies is necessary. This study demonstrated the impacts of waste-to-electricity transformation coefficient (WETC) of incinerators and the fluctuation of unit tipping fees on the regional MSW flow/allocation of the Taipei metropolitan area from practical and economic perspectives. Real-world data and linear programming were used to obtain the least-cost alternatives under different scenarios. Analytical results indicated some treatment facilities had geographic superiority and their priorities changed when actual WETCs of incinerators were considered. Treatment facilities located at weighted centers were identified. The allocation of MSW among incinerators and landfills is affected by fluctuation of unit tipping fees within a certain range. Treatment facilities sensitive to the changes in unit tipping fees were also identified. Regression equations were also established that can estimate the cost items of MSW management scenarios with different unit tipping fees. The results of this study are very useful for daily basis regulation of MSW administration.     

Combining modelling tools to evaluate a goose management scheme

Many goose species feed on agricultural land, and with growing goose numbers, conflicts with agriculture are increasing. One possible solution is to designate refuge areas where farmers are paid to leave geese undisturbed. Here, we present a generic modelling tool that can be used to designate the best locations for refuges and to gauge the area needed to accommodate the geese. With a species distribution model, locations are ranked according to goose suitability. The size of the area to be designated as refuge can be chosen by including more or less suitable locations. A resource depletion model is then used to estimate whether enough resources are available within the designated refuge to accommodate all geese, taking into account the dynamics of food resources, including depletion by geese. We illustrate this with the management scheme for pink-footed goose Anser brachyrhynchus implemented in Norway. Here, all geese can be accommodated, but damage levels appear to depend on weather, land use and refuge size.     

South-Siberian mountain mires: Perspectives on a potentially vulnerable remote source of biodiversity

Changes in climate, land-use and pollution are having disproportionate impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity of arctic and mountain ecosystems. While these impacts are well-documented for many areas of the Arctic and alpine regions, some isolated and inaccessible mountain areas are poorly studied. Furthermore, even in well-studied regions, assessments of biodiversity and species responses to environmental change are biased towards vascular plants and cryptogams, particularly bryophytes are far less represented. This paper aims to document the environments of the remote and inaccessible Altai-Sayan mountain mires and particularly their bryofloras where threatened species exist and species new to the regional flora are still being found. As these mountain mires are relatively inaccessible, changes in drivers of change and their ecosystem and biodiversity impacts have not been monitored. However, the remoteness of the mires has so far protected them and their species. In this study, we describe the mires, their bryophyte species and the expected impacts of environmental stressors to bring attention to the urgency of documenting change and conserving these pristine ecosystems.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01596-w.