Insuring against earthquakes: simulating the cost‐effectiveness of disaster preparedness

Ex‐ante measures to improve risk preparedness for natural disasters are generally considered to be more effective than ex‐post measures. Nevertheless, most resources are allocated after an event in geographical areas that are vulnerable to natural disasters. This paper analyses the cost‐effectiveness of ex‐ante adaptation measures in the wake of earthquakes and provides an assessment of the future role of private and public agencies in disaster risk management. The study uses a simulation model approach to evaluate consumption losses after earthquakes under different scenarios of intervention. Particular attention is given to the role of activity diversification measures in enhancing disaster preparedness and the contributions of (targeted) microcredit and education programmes for reconstruction following a disaster. Whereas the former measures are far more cost‐effective, missing markets and perverse incentives tend to make ex‐post measures a preferred option, thus occasioning underinvestment in ex‐ante adaptation initiatives.     

城市防震减灾及其对策

城市是一个区域政治、经济、文化中心、是交通、通讯的重要枢纽,随着城市化进程的加快,城市规模日益扩大,城市人口、财产、建筑物更加密集,一旦遭受强烈地震袭击或波及,灾害损失将十分严重,加之,许多城市都处在地震的易发多发地带,地震对许多城市的安全构成了严重的威胁,本文对防震减灾工作进行了探讨。     

Re-framing risk: the changing context of disaster mitigation and preparedness

This issue of Disasters explores the roles of NGOs and other actors in disaster mitigation and preparedness and also reviews broad international trends in risk management and disaster prevention. The need to address risk, and with that the motivation to improve disaster mitigation and preparedness, has tended to fall between the cracks of grander frameworks of development co-operation and humanitarian assistance. Despite the seemingly glaring need to reduce the horrific impact of floods, droughts and wars, disaster mitigation and preparedness have neither the allure of directly 'saving lives', nor of providing an 'escape from poverty'. There are, however, signs that risk management is becoming a mainstream concern. Factors such as the need to address factors that do not fit into traditional slots on the relief-development continuum, the rising economic costs of disasters and a growing acknowledgement that aid will never cover more than a small fraction of the costs of disasters are all leading to new approaches, priorities and institutional configurations. A realisation that dealing with risk and insecurity is a central part of how poor people develop their livelihood strategies has begun to position disaster mitigation and preparedness within many poverty alleviation agendas. A number of long-standing challenges remain; most of all, the complexities of maintaining the political will that is needed to ensure that risk management becomes more than a passing fad.     

A proposed framework of key activities and processes in the preparedness and recovery phases of disaster management

This paper proposes an empirically grounded framework for examining the preparedness and recovery phases of disaster management activities and processes pertaining to predictable disasters within a developed country. The two‐stage framework provides a single model composed of important preparedness and recovery initiatives, as well as activities and processes derived from empirical data collected for case studies from Australia: the ‘Black Saturday’ bushfires in the state of Victoria in February 2009; and Cyclone Larry in March 2006. The framework enables a variety of analyses, including the generation of insights into disaster management preparedness and recovery in the context of events in wealthy developed countries. The paper combines two empirical examples, a series of bushfires and a severe tropical cyclone, to enhance understanding of, and to contribute to better, disaster preparedness and recovery in the future. The paper contributes to the growing literature on disasters, preparedness, recovery and associated logistics, and other issues.     

数字江苏中的防震减灾数字系统

为推进经济的可持续与跨越式发展，配合 “数字江苏” 的建设，最大限度地减轻地震灾害所造成的损失，在 “数字江苏” 中建设防震减灾数字系统势在必行。 本文从防震减灾在可持续与跨越式发展战略中的地位和作用、防震减灾数字系统的组成、 “数字江苏” 中如何包含防震减灾数字系统、防震减灾数字系统建设进程及展望等几方面进行了探讨。     

防震减灾网页设计要点及其日常维护——以山东省防震减灾信息网站为例

以山东省防震减灾信息网站为例 ,介绍了网页设计要点及日常维护的经验和体会 ,进而提出了网页进一步发展的新思路     

Disaster journalism: fostering citizen and community disaster mitigation,preparedness, response,recovery, and resilience across the disaster cycle

Natural and human‐caused disasters pose a significant risk to the health and well‐being of people. Journalists and news organisations can fulfil multiple roles related to disasters, ranging from providing warnings, assessing disaster mitigation and preparedness, and reporting on what occurs, to aiding long‐term recovery and fostering disaster resilience. This paper considers these possible functions of disaster journalism and draws on semi‐structured interviews with 24 journalists in the United States to understand better their approach to the discipline. A thematic analysis was employed, which resulted in the identification of five main themes and accompanying subthemes: (i) examining disaster mitigation and preparedness; (ii) facilitating recovery; (iii) self‐care and care of journalists; (iv) continued spread of social media; and (v) disaster journalism ethics. The paper concludes that disaster journalism done poorly can result in harm, but done well, it can be an essential instrument with respect to public disaster planning, management, response, and recovery.     

基于计算机网络技术的天津市防震减灾技术系统

随着计算机的普及和网络技术的不断成熟,建立以计算机网络为依托的防震减灾地震快速响应系统已成为可能。“九五”期间,天津市地震局就计算机网络技术在防震减灾技术系统建设中的应用方面进行了尝试。通过计算机通信网络的建立,将地震监测预报、震后快速速报、早期趋势判定等工作环节有机地联系起来,在实际中发挥了重要作用。     

新世纪地震事业发展战略思考

面对 2 1世纪知识经济占主导地位的新时代 ,地震事业如何随之变革 ,以应对市场经济的挑战 ?本文对之进行了思考。列举了目前制约地震工作发展的诸项因素 ,提出了相应的应对措施。在深化改革方面 ,提出了稳定一支精干的日常地震工作队伍、组建一支高水平的地震科研精干队伍、强化一支具有竞争实力的市场开发队伍、优化一支复合型管理干部队伍等措施     

台风灾害避灾行为及影响因素的信效度分析

选取浙江南部山区丽水市居民台风灾害避灾行为的问卷调查样本,应用SPSS13.0统计软件,通过KMO指数、球形检验和主成份分析方法,分别对台风灾害的行为模式和影响因素进行了信效度分析.结果表明:灾前避灾行为与灾时行为的KMO指数分别为0.792和0.663,而且球形检验显著,通过因子分析,用最大方差正交旋转变换,灾前避灾行为的α值大于0.7,灾时行为的α值在0.51～0.70.行为模式影响因素的KMO指数为0.682,接近0.7,并且球形检验显著,经因子分析和最大方差正交旋转变换,α值的范围在0.54～0.72.台风灾害的行为模式和影响因素的调查及信效度分析方法可用于其它地区台风影响的研究.     

基于GIS的城市防震减灾信息管理系统设计研究

本文通过基于GIS的城市防震减灾计算机信息管理系统设计的分析研究,描述了系统的总体思路,结构设计和功能等内容,该系统的建立既可用于城市防震减灾的日常工作,也可用于应急救灾的紧急情况。     

"We all knew that a cyclone was coming": disaster preparedness and the cyclone of 1999 in Orissa, India

Imagine that a cyclone is coming, but that those living in the affected areas do nothing or too little to protect themselves. This is precisely what happened in the coastal state of Orissa, India. Individuals and communities living in regions where natural hazards are a part of daily life develop strategies to cope with and adapt to the impacts of extreme events. In October 1999, a cyclone killed 10,000 people according to government statistics, however, the unofficial death toll is much higher. This article examines why such a large loss of life occurred and looks at measures taken since then to initiate comprehensive disaster-preparedness programmes and to construct more cyclone shelters. The role of both governmental organisations and NGOs in this is critically analysed. The good news is that, based on an assessment of disaster preparedness during a small cyclone in November 2002, it can be seen that at community-level awareness was high and that many of the lessons learnt in 1999 were put into practice. Less positive, however, is the finding that at the state level collaboration continues to be problematic.     

Digital disparities and vulnerability: mobile phone use,information behaviour,and disaster preparedness in Southeast Asia

This paper proposes an ecological view to investigate how disparities in mobile technology use reflect vulnerabilities in communities vis‐à‐vis disaster preparedness. Data (n=1,603) were collected through a multi‐country survey conducted equally in rural and urban areas of Indonesia, Myanmar, Philippines, and Vietnam, where mobile technology has become a dominant and ubiquitous communication and information medium. The findings show that smartphone users' routinised use of mobile technology and their risk perception are significantly associated with disaster preparedness behaviour indirectly through disaster‐related information sharing. In addition to disaster‐specific social support, smartphone users' disaster‐related information repertoires are another strong influencing factor. In contrast, non‐smartphone users are likely to rely solely on receipt of disaster‐specific social support as the motivator of disaster preparedness. The results also reveal demographic and rural–urban differences in disaster information behaviour and preparedness. Given the increasing shift from basic mobile phone models to smartphones, the theoretical and policy‐oriented implications of digital disparities and vulnerability are discussed.     

Risk,vulnerability, and pragmatic inevitability: the conflict–disaster nexus and urban governance in Johannesburg,South Africa

This paper spotlights post-disaster relief provision in Johannesburg, South Africa, following the floods of 2016 in a bid to explore how local government and non-governmental actors in the country conceive of compounding vulnerability and conflict within urban disaster governance. It reveals the diverse strategies employed to navigate violent conflict during the cyclical occurrence of disaster and reconstruction that the predominantly migrant population experiences in the Setswetla informal settlement, adjacent to the Alexandra township in northern Johannesburg. Rendered visible in moments of disaster and recovery are the spatial politics and multidimensional nature of conflict. These phenomena unfold across various levels of urban governance and in the affected community and effectively construct a disaster citizenship that makes risk reduction and community cohesion impossible in the eyes of disaster managers. This research, based on a set of expert interviews, integrates conflict and disaster studies to shed light on how the conflict–disaster interface materialises, and is operationalised, in an urban setting.