Has recent climate warming affected the dates of bird arrival to the Il℉men Reserve in the Southern Urals?

The results of regression and correlation analyses of long-term data (1971–2005) on the dates of arrival of 16 bird species to the Il’men State Nature Reserve (the Southern Urals) show that they have not changed in most of these birds, unlike in many countries of Europe and North America. This is explained primarily by the absence of any significant trends in the dynamics of spring air temperatures in the study region. Only the herring gull Larus argentatus and the lapwing Vanellus vanellus have shown a significant tendency to arrive earlier, while the garganey Anas querquedula has shown a tendency to arrive on later dates in the past two decades. Nevertheless, interannual fluctuations in the dates of arrival are well manifested in both early arriving species wintering in Europe and late-arriving species wintering in Africa. These fluctuations largely depend on temperature conditions in spring. As a rule, almost all species studied—from waterbirds to passerines—appear in the Il’men Reserve earlier in years with early and warm springs than in cold years. Hence, spring weather is the key factor determining the dates of arrival of migratory birds to the study region.     

Climate anomalies as a factor of bird mortality in northern Yakutia

Five cases of mass mortality among shorebirds and small passerines under adverse weather conditions caused by a combination of several factors during spring migration were observed in the tundra and northern taiga between the Lena and Kolyma rivers in the period between 1978 and 2008. A tendency toward an increase in the frequency and spatial extent of such phenomena is noted. Data are presented on the species composition, numbers, and localization of dying birds as well as on the timing of mortality and its meteorological and ecological prerequisites, including relevant behavioral patterns.     

Analysis of the long-term dynamics of bird population in forests of the Ilmen State Reserve,Southern Urals

The results of long-term bird censuses in the Ilmen State Reserve are presented. Analysis of dynamic processes in the forest ornithocomplexes has shown that factors influencing changes in the abundance of birds in multispecies communities have unequal effects on different species. It has been found that the abundance dynamics of some species is correlated with spring meteorological parameters and the timing of phenological phases.     

Variation of male nuptial plumage in the willow ptarmigan <Emphasis Type="Italic">Lagopus lagopus</Emphasis> L.

In male willow ptarmigans, the relationship between qualitative differences between birds belonging to different intrapopulation groups and some individual features of male nuptial plumage has been revealed by studying banded birds. Thus, males that have changed their nesting site differ from those returning to the former site and bigamous males differ from monogamous in the number and size of dark spots amid the white plumage. The influence of the time of the onset of spring on the development of nuptial plumage is considered.     

Lessons from the past in weather variability: sowing to ripening dynamics and yield penalties for northern agriculture from 1970 to 2012

There is evidence for overall spring advancement and phenology shift across the northern hemisphere, including northern Europe, where cereals are grown despite the very short growing season. This study focused on one of the principal risks associated with the short growing season, weather-induced variability in sowing time. The aim was to characterize variation in sowing time, quantify the impacts on crop growth and document associations with weather conditions and variability. We also assessed whether any systematic changes occurred as potential signs of autonomous adaptation to changed conditions. Shifts in spring cereal sowing time had no consistent impact on time of maturity as a result of variable weather conditions. All spring cereal cultivars required fewer days, although more cumulated degree-days, to mature after delays in sowing. In the 1990s and 2000s, sowing tended to start earlier than in the 1970s and 1980s. This was attributable to earlier onset of the growing season. Furthermore, more favorable harvest conditions facilitated harvest after maturity. As more land has been allocated to late-maturing wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) compared with early-maturing barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) during recent decades, autonomous adaptation to climate change has already begun in the northernmost agricultural region of Europe.     

Long-Term Dynamics of Winter Communities of Forest Birds in the Ilmen Nature Reserve

Quantitative data of winter bird censuses in forest habitats of the Ilmen Nature Reserve (1986–2010) have been analyzed with regard to changes in the monthly average, maximum, and minimum temperatures and precipitation in the period from December to February. No warming trend has been revealed in the reserve over the study period, The dynamics of bird population structure in winter has proved to be independent of weather conditions, despite significant interannual fluctuations. The most significant factors of long-term dynamics of abundance of wintering birds include population density in the previous nesting period, the seed yield of the main food plants, and local migration of wintering species.     

The influence of climate change on the dates of bird arrival to the Ilmen State Reserve (Southern Urals)

The results of long-term observations (1983–2013) on the dates of arrival of migratory birds to the Ilmen State Reserve are presented. Based on their analysis, it is conclude that (1) there is no significant positive trend of spring temperatures in the territory of the reserve, and (2) an earlier arrival of the majority of bird species is not observed, unlike in Europe. The arrival has shifted to earlier dates in the Common Chaffinch (Fringilla coelebs), White Wagtail (Motacilla alba), and Black Kite (Milvus migrans). On the other hand, the arrival of the Tree Pipit (Anthus trivialis) is observed later than usual. Multiple regression analysis has shown that the arrival dates of most species that nest in the reserve are determined by the temperature regime of spring months in their nesting area.     

2011年长江中下游春旱的气候特征分析

利用我国高分辨率逐日降水资料，从降水量、无降水日数、连续无降水日数、气象干旱指数（CI）等指标对2011年春季长江中下游地区发生的气象干旱进行了分析评估。结果表明，2011年春季长江中下游地区降水量为近60 a同期最少，无降水日数、气象干旱影响范围均为近60 a同期最大，重度以上气象干旱日数为近几十年来同期罕见。此次严重气象干旱具有强度强、持续时间长、干旱范围广、影响程度重等特点，为近60 a来长江中下游地区春季发生的最严重的气象干旱，对水资源、水产养殖业、农业生产等造成了重大影响。还从大气环流、水汽输送角度对气象干旱的成因进行了初步分析，认为2011年冬春季北方冷空气势力强大，向南扩张明显，南方热带对流系统不活跃，向长江中下游地区水汽输送弱，是造成此次气象干旱的主要原因     

Site Tenacity in the Willow Ptarmigan (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Lagopus lagopus</Emphasis> L.) in the Northern Yamal Peninsula

The return of willow ptarmigans to the sites in which they nested the previous year has been studied using color banding. No factors influencing the return index have been revealed, except for its dependence in males on the time when spring begins in a given year. In northernYamal, in contrast to the temperate zone, some surviving birds fail to return to their former nesting sites. Polymorphism of individuals with respect to territorial behavioral strategy is proposed for L. lagopus populations at the northern boundary of the species range.__________Translated from Ekologiya, No. 3, 2005, pp. 215–221.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Tarasov.     

Dynamics of Habitat Distribution in Birds Differing in the Level of Site Tenacity

The dynamics of habitat distribution in two bird species differing in the level of site tenacity—willow warbler (relatively tenacious) and little bunting (more flexible)—were studied at the boundary of the northern taiga and forest–tundra zones over ten years. The distribution pattern proved to be more uniform in the willow warbler than in the little bunting. Both species occupied their habitats according to a well-known scheme: initially, the birds settled in their favorable floodplain habitats and later; when their abundance increased, in less preferable habitats (terraces above the floodplain, moss bogs, and the tundra). In the case of willow warbler, the process of occupying the floodplain was stepwise: bird density increased sharply, remained at the same level in the next year, then increased again, etc. In the case of little bunting, the degree of floodplain occupation by birds remained high, except for the years when high spring floods interfered with bird settling.     

汉江流域降水持续天数分布

以汉江流域13个站点1960~2003年的逐日降水资料为基础,分析了该流域年及各季雨日数和雨日平均雨量分布的时空特征,研究表明汉江流域春季平均雨日数占全年的25%~31%,雨量占全年雨量的21%~31%。夏季平均雨日数占全年雨日数的13%~18%,雨量占全年雨量的50%。秋季平均雨日数占全年雨日数的22%~31%,雨量占全年雨量的21%~29%。冬季平均雨日数占全年雨日数13%~22%,雨量占全年雨量的6%,雨日平均雨量仅为28 mm。建立了流域内不同站点、不同季节的持续性雨日概率分布模式,用Polya概率分布对汉江流域各种持续性雨日发生概率进行拟合,结果表明夏季、冬季、秋季拟合效果较好,卡方检验通过率达到95%,而春季有4个站点无法通过检验。利用Polya概率分布模式可以科学地估算流域各地、各季不同持续时段雨日出现的气候概率,为防洪减灾提供依据,也为南水北调中线工程的顺利实施提供科学依据     

重庆市主城区空气污染天气特征研究

利用2003～2008年重庆市主城区大气污染监测资料,分析了轻度污染以上天气的变化特征。结果表明重庆主城区的主要污染物为PM10,PM10浓度具有独特的“双峰双谷”日变化特征;污染天气具有明显的季节特征,主要污染期为秋末到初春;污染天气具有连续性特征,污染天气持续时间尺度主要集中在2～7 d;污染天气过程具有典型的大气环流和天气特征,本地地面天气类型主要以低压或均压场为主,中高纬度高空以纬向环流或西北气流为主,天气以阴天或阴晴相间为主;污染天气过程中本地气象要素变化呈现规律性,地面24 h气压变化总趋势为负变压,24 h变温为正变温,平均相对湿度维持在72%～85%,风速的变化趋势不大,基本维持在1～2 m/s,低层逆温明显。污染天气过程结束时气压明显回升,温度显著下降,相对湿度显著增加。     

湖北省连阴雨的分析

从农业气候角度，重点讨论湖北春秋雨季连阴雨的时空分布，形成原因和对农业生产的影响，首次较为系统地利用模糊聚类方法对湖北省连阴雨进行分区，对各区连阴雨的时空变化规律作了较深入的探讨。最后找出影响湖北省连阴雨的天气系统主要是北方冷空气的频繁活动。用回归分析方法找出连阴雨与我省西部北部上空５００ｈｐａ高空环流指数有明显的相关关系。     

江苏省大气气溶胶光学厚度时空分布研究

气溶胶光学厚度（AOD）是气溶胶总含量的基本参数,可以用来反映大气污染程度。利用卫星遥感获取气溶胶光学厚度,可以弥补地面观测难以反映AOD空间分布和整体变化趋势的不足。以江苏省为例,利用2010年4~9月EOS TERRA MODIS数据,分别基于暗像元法（DDV法）和改进的暗像元法（V52法）,反演研究区2010年夏半年/春夏两季气溶胶光学厚度,并结合地面观测数据验证两种反演算法结果精度,最后分析研究区AOD时空变化特征。研究结果表明：在研究区,两种算法反演结果在整体趋势上保持一致,研究区AOD均表现出与植被指数NDVI较为明显的负相关关系,但V52法反演精度要明显优于DDV法;研究区气溶胶光学厚度存在较明显的区域差异和季节变化,具体表现为苏南AOD明显高于苏中、苏北地区,而在春、夏两个不同季节上,不同区域变化趋势不同,苏南地区春季AOD高于夏季,而在苏北地区则刚好相反,夏季AOD要高于春季     

不同季节划分尺度下巢湖流域气候变化趋势分析

根据现代气候学、候平均气温及气象学上的季节划分等3种不同的季节划分方法,利用国家气候中心发布的1961～2010年气象台站观测资料插值格点化数据集（CN051）,选取巢湖流域内及其周边的26个格点气温、降水量资料,运用年代际变化、距平、回归分析以及Mann Kendall 方法,分析比较巢湖流域近50 a三类季节的气温、降水量变化趋势和特征。结果表明：3种方法划分出不同季节,分析温度和降水的变化趋势时,它们各自的结果有所差异,甚至差别相当明显,运用气象学季节划分方法就成功地推翻了全球变暖的说法。所以在全球变暖的大背景下,分析季节的气候变化应考虑每年实际气温,从多尺度进行分析,才能得到准确而又科学的结果     

Estimates of energy expenditures for reproduction in the pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca Pall. in an industrially polluted environment

Energy expenditures for reproduction in local populations of the pied flycatcher in the environs of the Middle Urals Copper Smelter (Revda, Sverdlovsk oblast) have been estimated on the basis of the results of long-term studies (1989?C2008). It is shown that the total energy expenditures per fledgling over the nesting period are 1.2 times higher than in the background area, which is explained by increased energy losses (by a factor of 4.1) resulting from partial mortality of the progeny (eggs or nestlings). Variation in the average energy ??cost?? of one fledgling in the heavily polluted zone is also higher, compared to the background area. Average energy expenditures per fledgling increase in years with cold weather, and the same is observed when the birds lay larger clutches.     

三峡库区航运气象条件分析

利用三峡库区9个沿江测站气象要素,分析了长江航道的(三峡库区段)江面风、水温、能见度资料。就能见度强度和低能见度的时空分布特征、变化情况和航道出现典型低能见度的天气形势进行了研究。结果表明：①该航段的风向风速和水温对航行安全没有明显的影响;②能见度成为影响三峡河道航运极其重要的因素;③三峡库区航道低能见度天气存在比较明显的时空分布差异：冬季较夏季易出现影响航道安全的低能见度天气,重庆到忠县段出现低能见度的机率较大,而万州至巫山段较少出现低能见度现象;④长江航道低能见度在年际间除重庆和忠县外总体有减小的趋势,季节分布中在冬季出现最多,其次是秋季、春季,夏季最少;低能见度现象持续时间大部分在2小时以下;⑤造成长江航道低能见度出现的原因除城市环境外,主要的天气原因是由于盆地受地面冷高压控制,为阴天或阴雨天气,形成雾或雨雾。     

近几十年三峡库区主要气象灾害变化趋势

利用三峡库区33站1961～2006年逐日降水量、平均气温、最高气温、雾、雷暴资料,分析了库区干旱、洪涝、连阴雨、高温、雾、雷暴主要气象灾害的变化趋势。统计结果表明：近46年来,三峡库区平均年干旱日数呈不明显的增加趋势,春、夏、冬季干旱日数的年际间基本没有变化趋势,但秋季干旱日数年际间有明显的增多趋势,增多速率为41 d/10 a;春、夏季雨涝日数变化趋势不明显,秋季雨涝日数有微弱的减少趋势;三峡库区年平均连阴雨过程次数有微弱的减少趋势,连阴雨日数的减少趋势较明显;近34年三峡库区年雷暴日数呈明显减少趋势,减少速度为29 d/10 a;库区平均年雾日数没有明显变化趋势,但1999年以来减少趋势明显;近46年三峡库区平均年高温日数、危害性高温日数有微弱的减少趋势,平均年极端最高气温均没有明显变化趋势。     

气候变化对洪湖湿地的影响

气候变化影响着湿地生态系统。在全球气候变化的背景下,洪湖湿地区域气候也发生了明显变化。通过对洪湖周边4个站点1961~2004年的气象数据分析,从气象学和生态学的角度探讨了气候变化对洪湖湿地的影响。结果表明20世纪60年代以来,洪湖湿地区域气温有显著升高趋势,气温增加倾向率为0264℃/10 a;年降水量有微弱升高趋势,增加倾向率为49964 mm/10 a;降水量夏季和冬季有升高趋势,但是春季和秋季有减弱趋势。气候要素的综合变化使洪湖湿地区域湿润系数具有降低趋势。气候变化造成洪湖湿地面积萎缩、水位降低,同时造成了生物多样性降低和生物入侵,降水格局的变化改变了湿地水文状况,加剧了湿地的生态不稳定性。研究结果为湿地恢复重建和本区湿地生态安全提供了科学依据.     

滇东南峰林湖盆区表层岩溶泉水化学动态变化分析

为探究不同表层岩溶带岩溶水系统和人类干扰方式下滇东南峰林湖盆区表层岩溶泉地球化学变化特征及其影响因素,利用CTDP300水质检测仪,对不同地质背景下的两泉域的水化学性质从月动态和降雨动态两个尺度进行了一个水文年的观测。结果表明:(1)菜花箐泉理化指标季节动态变幅较大:水温为4.6℃,电导率为302μs/cm,pH为0.66,水浊度为255.1;火把洞泉变幅相对较小:水温为3.3℃,电导率为225μs/cm,pH为0.5,水浊度9.8。(2)无雨时:菜花箐泉气温与水温、电导率、pH呈正相关关系;火把洞气温与水温呈现正相关关系,水温与电导率、pH呈现负相关关系。(3)强降雨时:菜花箐泉在降雨初期水温、电导率、水浊度均出现峰值,pH呈现低值。在降雨中后期,电导率大幅度上升,在6 h内从189μs/cm上升到405μs/cm,pH出现峰值后呈波动下降趋势。火把洞泉在降雨初期水温与电导率、pH呈正相关关系,各自呈现本期间峰值。在降雨持续10 h后,pH、电导率均呈现下降趋势。(4)弱降雨气候条件下:菜花箐和火把洞泉的理化指标变幅都较小,在降雨初期、中期和后期两泉域pH、电导率都出现稀释效应曲线。