流域水资源可持续开发利用中激励机制的应用

本文分析了流域水资源开发利用中存在的问题及原因，并根据可持续发展的理论，提出了流域水资源可持续开发利用的原则及相应的激励机制：①水价机制；②宏观调控机制；③水权机制；④相应的流域管理机制。     

黑河流域水资源可持续利用对策

水资源私有制和生态环境恶化已成为黑河流域面临的严重问题。本文分析了黑河流域水资源开发利用中存在的问题，在结合大量翔实数据的基础上，以水资源可持续利用为原则，提出了黑河流域水资源可持续利用的途径与措施。     

辽河流域水资源管理产业化模式研究

辽河流域水资源的管理呈现“多龙治水”政出多门的状态，各管理部门闻缺乏协调性。水资源的统一管理与开发利用管理责权利不分明。本文依据辽河流域水资源的特点。以流域水资源管理为理论基础，借鉴国外的经验，参考土地管理的成功模式，提出以流域为单元的水资源开发、经营和管理的产业化模式：水资源开发利用形成产业化机制，水资源管理建立以自然集水区为控制单元的管理体制和机构。     

非对称性视角下跨境水资源冲突与合作的鹰鸽博弈模型北大核心CSCDCSSCI

随着经济社会快速发展,全球用水量不断增加,加上气候变暖、水质恶化等问题,使跨境水资源逐渐成为各流域国争夺的稀缺资源。各流域国在跨境水资源开发利用中,冲突与合作频繁出现,充满着复杂性与不确定性。为探析各流域国策略选择的规律,促进跨境流域水资源合作,基于非对称性演化博弈模型,探讨跨境水资源各流域国的博弈策略动态演化过程。首先从地理位置差异、现状用水及需求差异、水资源开发利用能力差异三个角度出发,衡量流域国开发利用跨境水资源的实力值,以此界定流域国之间的非对称性,并基于非对称性“鹰鸽博弈”模型,探析各流域国策略选择的规律,分析非对称因子、冲突的单位成本收益对跨境流域系统稳定于合作状态概率的影响。然后考虑了跨境流域水资源合作中存在的额外收益,并将合作额外收益嵌入到非对称“鹰鸽博弈”模型中,探讨不同情景下,流域国合作额外收益对跨境水资源系统演化的影响。最后以印孟恒河水资源冲突为例进行分析,以理论与现实相结合的方式,探讨印孟水资源冲突难以得到永久解决的原因。研究表明:非对称性因子、冲突的单位成本收益和合作的额外收益都是影响流域国合作行为演化的重要因素,其中流域国非对称因子越大,冲突的单位成本收益越小,越有利于跨境水资源流域国合作行为的演化;合作的额外收益是流域国之间开展合作的重要动力。基于非对称性“鹰鸽博弈”模型对流域国合作演化规律进行探讨,以推动流域国开展合作,减少冲突,也为进一步解决全球跨境水资源的开发利用等问题提供参考。     

非对称性视角下跨境水资源冲突与合作的鹰鸽博弈模型

随着经济社会快速发展,全球用水量不断增加,加上气候变暖、水质恶化等问题,使跨境水资源逐渐成为各流域国争夺的稀缺资源。各流域国在跨境水资源开发利用中,冲突与合作频繁出现,充满着复杂性与不确定性。为探析各流域国策略选择的规律,促进跨境流域水资源合作,基于非对称性演化博弈模型,探讨跨境水资源各流域国的博弈策略动态演化过程。首先从地理位置差异、现状用水及需求差异、水资源开发利用能力差异三个角度出发,衡量流域国开发利用跨境水资源的实力值,以此界定流域国之间的非对称性,并基于非对称性"鹰鸽博弈"模型,探析各流域国策略选择的规律,分析非对称因子、冲突的单位成本收益对跨境流域系统稳定于合作状态概率的影响。然后考虑了跨境流域水资源合作中存在的额外收益,并将合作额外收益嵌入到非对称"鹰鸽博弈"模型中,探讨不同情景下,流域国合作额外收益对跨境水资源系统演化的影响。最后以印孟恒河水资源冲突为例进行分析,以理论与现实相结合的方式,探讨印孟水资源冲突难以得到永久解决的原因。研究表明:非对称性因子、冲突的单位成本收益和合作的额外收益都是影响流域国合作行为演化的重要因素,其中流域国非对称因子越大,冲突的单位成本收益越小,越有利于跨境水资源流域国合作行为的演化;合作的额外收益是流域国之间开展合作的重要动力。基于非对称性"鹰鸽博弈"模型对流域国合作演化规律进行探讨,以推动流域国开展合作,减少冲突,也为进一步解决全球跨境水资源的开发利用等问题提供参考。     

西南国际河流水资源状态及开发中的问题

西南国际河流流域地形复杂、海拔高、人口稀少,人均水资源量丰富,出境水量大,水质好,目前开发利用程度低,具有广阔的开发利用前景。但随着我国加入WTO,经济和社会发展融入国际的步伐加快,对国际河流的开发和利用也必然要按照国际法或国际惯例。首先对西南国际河流水资源的自然状态,我国在各自流域中的地位、开发利用状态以及存在的问题进行了论述;然后讨论国际河流开发中应注意的问题和准则;最后,根据可持续发展的原则和各个河流的特点,提出建议：应该充分认识到我国西南国际河流地区生态环境脆弱和社会经济发展水平较低的状态,今后应以水资源保护为主,优先发展航运和旅游业,合理开发水能资源。同时应积极参与国际合作与交流,与相关国家共同开发流域水资源,促进流域经济社会的可持续发展。     

岷沱江流域水环境治理绩效综合评价方法研究

为全面研究生态文明背景下岷沱江流域水环境治理成效，该研究从水生态保护与修复、水污染治理与控制、水资源开发利用和社会经济承载4个维度构建评价指标体系，先采用灰色关联分析法和均方差决策法建立组合权重，再通过加权综合指数法和理想解模型对2011~2017年岷沱江流域10个主要地级市的水环境治理绩效进行动态评价，最后利用ArcGIS10.5软件进行评价结果的时空分异性的可视化。研究表明：在水环境综合管理下，岷沱江流域水环境治理绩效水平呈上升的趋势。空间分布上，虽岷沱江流域上、中、下游的水环境治理绩效整体水平差异性逐渐缩小，但流域中各地级市在水污染治理与水资源开发利用上存在明显的差异性，今后岷沱江流域应重点控制水污染和优化水资源配置，统筹流域可持续发展的水环境管理。     

多瑙河国际水争端仲裁案对我国国际河流开发的启示

多瑙河水争端仲裁案是国际法庭首例仲裁解决的生态环境案例。在对该案的产生、发展及仲裁结论的分析与总结基础上,结合当今淡水资源日趋紧张,国际河流水资源的合理利用与管理已成为国际社会广泛关注的重要问题的现状,认为该案将对我国未来国际河流水资源的开发利用带来启示：加强对我国境内国际河流水资源的“国际”法制化管理;协调国家与地方、国家间的水资源利用目标,促进国际河流水资源的公平合理利用与保护;认识与了解我国国际河流水资源开发利用中的国际责任与义务;认识国际河流水资源的有限利用权与使用权;国际河流水资源公平合理利用权利受限于流域国家的合作基础;参与制定并实施国际河流区域性开发协定是实现国际河流管理与保护的重要条件等。     

西南岩溶石山地区岩溶水资源合理开发利用模式——以湖南龙山洛塔为例

针对湘西洛塔岩溶区特殊的地质环境所造成的干旱缺水、水土流失、生态环境恶化等问题的特点,在调查、分析洛塔自然条件与水土资源、生态环境基本条件的基础上,实施了13处岩溶水资源开发利用示范工程.通过系统总结洛塔地区岩溶水资源合理开发利用技术与方法及岩溶水资源开发利用成功经验,提出了以岩溶水小流域为单元对岩溶水资源进行综合开发利用的5种模式:①地下河堵洞引水开发利用模式;②地下河出口及岩溶大泉引水开发利用模式;③凿引水隧洞拦截地下河开发利用模式;④地表地下联合水库开发利用模式;⑤表层岩溶泉开发利用模式.通过对失败工程的案例分析,认为在岩溶水资源开发利用过程中,应查清工程的岩溶发育规律及工程地质条件,分析经济技术支持的可行性,然后采取相适应的开采方式与方法.岩溶水资源进行综合开发利用的5种模式的提出,为在湘西实施"水源·土地·生态"持续发展战略,发展生态经济,实现脱贫致富,促进社会经济、生态环境良性循环,提供了切实可行的实用技术与方法借鉴.     

合作视角下的跨境水资源两级分配模式

跨境水资源是淡水资源的重要组成部分，随着世界人口和经济的快速发展，各国对水资源需求增加，气候变化使水资源变化情势具有不确定性，更是加剧了各国对水资源安全保障的诉求。公平合理的跨境水资源分配对于缓解各流域国用水冲突、实现跨境水资源可持续利用具有重要意义。为提高跨境水资源分配的公平合理性和水资源利用效率，基于合作视角，该研究提出一个“初始分配以明晰所有权+优化再分配以实现高效利用”的跨境水资源两级分配模式。首先基于协商谈判视角，运用讨价还价博弈模型的方法理念，引入流域国间协商谈判机制，以实现跨境水资源在流域国间的公平合理初始分配。然后基于利益共享理念，构建具有模糊支付的跨境水资源合作博弈模型和要素双重模糊的跨境水资源合作博弈模型，探讨不同模糊情景下的跨境水资源优化再分配问题。并以澜沧江-湄公河流域为例进行实证分析，研究表明：(1)基于协商谈判寻求跨境水权分配最优解，可以有效提高分配方案的可接受性。(2)初始分配是流域国开发利用跨境水资源的基础，有利于明晰初始水权，但也存在难以长时间适应流域环境变化和各流域国用水需求变化的缺陷。(3)合作开发情景下的系统收益比非合作情景下的系统收益更高，且当...     

Ethnosciences––A step towards the integration of scientific and indigenous forms of knowledge in the management of natural resources for the future

Integration of indigenous knowledge and ethnoscientific approaches into contemporary frameworks for conservation and sustainable management of natural resources will become increasingly important in policies on an international and national level, both in countries that are industrialised and those that have a developing status. We set the scene on how this can be done by exploring the key conditions and dimensions of a dialogue between ȁ8ontologiesȁ9 and the roles, which ethnosciences could play in this process. First, the roles of ethnosciences in the context of sustainable development were analysed, placing emphasis on the implications arising when western sciences aspire to relate to indigenous forms of␣knowledge. Secondly, the contributions of ethnosciences to such an ȁ8inter- ontological dialogueȁ9 were explored, based on an ethnoecological study of the encounter of sciences and indigenous knowledge in the Andes of Bolivia, and reviewed experiences from mangrove systems in Kenya, India and Sri Lanka, and from case-studies in other ecosystems world-wide, incl. Australia, Burkina Faso, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Indonesia, Nepal, Niger, Philippines, Senegal, South-Africa and Tanzania.     

Paradoxical ozone associations could be due to methyl nitrite from combustion of methyl ethers or esters in engine fuels

We review studies of the effects of low ambient ozone concentrations on morbidity that found a negative coefficient for ozone concentration. We call this a Paradoxical Ozone Association (POA). All studies were in regions with methyl ether in gasoline. All but one study carefully controlled for the effects of other criterion pollutants, so the phenomenon cannot be attributed to them. One was in southern California in mid-summer when ozone levels are highest. Because ozone is created by sunlight, the most plausible explanation for a POA would be an ambient pollutant that is rapidly destroyed by sunlight, such as methyl nitrite (MN). A previously published model of engine exhaust chemistry suggested methyl ether in the fuel will create MN in the exhaust. MN is known to be highly toxic, and closely related alkyl nitrites are known to induce respiratory sensitivity in humans. Support for the interpretation comes from many studies, including three linking asthma symptoms to methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and the observation that a POA has not been seen in regions without ether in gasoline. We also note that studies in southern California show a historical trend from more significant to less significant ozone-health associations. The timing of those changes is consistent with the known timing of the introduction of gasoline oxygenated with MTBE in that region.     

湘鄂赣农业资源与专业化区域化方向

湘鄂赣地理位置优越,农业资源丰富,稻谷、茶叶、麻类、棉花、油料、柑桔和淡水产品、禽蛋、肉类等在我国居有重要的地位,因此,大力发展三省农业生产,对我国人民实现小康生活具有战略意义。今后,要加速专业化区域化进程。我们找出生产潜力所在:改造低产田、低产园、低产水面;开发“三高”技术;开垦荒地、荒山、荒水;适当提高复种指数。通过建设,三省主要农产品将自给有余,还可满足国内外市场的需要。努力方向:高效农业开发——综合农业开发,吨粮田开发,玉米带开发,饲料稻开发,山区开发;合理布局农业生产;深化农业商品基地建设,发展综合利用,搞活商品流通;全面提高农业现代化水平,加强农业社会服务体系。     

Prognosis of the spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystems by means of universal kriging

The use of quantitative data for constructing prognostic maps of the dynamics of ecosystem degradation and restoration by nonlinear simulation methods is a topical field of landscape ecology. This method of dynamic cartography is based on fiberwise comparison of data on the state of Chernye Zemli (the Kalmyk Republic, Russia) in different years and the detailed analysis of the period on which the prognosis was based. For this purpose, materials of repeated aerial and satellite photography obtained during a long period (1954–1993) were used. Comparison of maps characterizing the dynamics of Chernye Zemli between 1958 and 1993 allows prognostic electronic maps for the next 10–15 years (with a five-year interval) to be drawn and land prognosis for the next 20–30 years (1998–2023) to be obtained. Deceased     

Distributions of personal VOC exposures: a population-based analysis

Information regarding the distribution of volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations and exposures is scarce, and there have been few, if any, studies using population-based samples from which representative estimates can be derived. This study characterizes distributions of personal exposures to ten different VOCs in the U.S. measured in the 1999-2000 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Personal VOC exposures were collected for 669 individuals over 2-3 days, and measurements were weighted to derive national-level statistics. Four common exposure sources were identified using factor analyses: gasoline vapor and vehicle exhaust, methyl tert-butyl ether (MBTE) as a gasoline additive, tap water disinfection products, and household cleaning products. Benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylenes chloroform, and tetrachloroethene were fit to log-normal distributions with reasonably good agreement to observations. 1,4-Dichlorobenzene and trichloroethene were fit to Pareto distributions, and MTBE to Weibull distribution, but agreement was poor. However, distributions that attempt to match all of the VOC exposure data can lead to incorrect conclusions regarding the level and frequency of the higher exposures. Maximum Gumbel distributions gave generally good fits to extrema, however, they could not fully represent the highest exposures of the NHANES measurements. The analysis suggests that complete models for the distribution of VOC exposures require an approach that combines standard and extreme value distributions, and that carefully identifies outliers. This is the first study to provide national-level and representative statistics regarding the VOC exposures, and its results have important implications for risk assessment and probabilistic analyses.     

Geographic Variation in the Seasonal Reproductive Strategy of the Mite Varroa jacobsoni in the Honeybee Nest

Variation in the reproduction of Varroa jacobsoni mite was studied in relation to the expansion of the range of its parasitism on the honeybee. Geographic differences in the seasonal dynamics of mite reproduction in the nests of bee families were revealed. Variation in the sex ratio of mites and the factors inhibiting their reproduction at the northern boundary of the honeybee range are considered. The forms of parthenogenetic reproduction in V. jacobsoni are discussed.     

Long-term increase in climatic dryness in the East-Mediterranean as evidenced for the island of Samos

The Eastern Mediterranean region is among the regions which were predicted to become drier under IPCC climate scenarios. Here, we document a gradual reduction of rainfall and tree growth and the loss of rural springs during the last decades of the twentieth century. Years with severe drought are associated with very low tree growth (dendrochronology) and dry falling of springs as evidenced by interviews with local stakeholders. The paper discusses the consequences of accelerating drought on natural vegetation and agriculture and points at the interaction with fire dynamics and economy, both likely to enhance the drought effect.     

Comparative analysis of the effect of predator odor on morphological and physiological parameters of adult male Campbell hamsters (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Phodopus campbelli</Emphasis>) and dwarf hamsters (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Phodopus sungorus</Emphasis>)

The effect of long-term exposure to natural excretions of the European polecat on the morphological parameters and hormonal status of adult male Campbell hamsters (Phodopus campbelli) and dwarf hamsters (Ph. sungorus) was studied. Exposure to volatile components of natural excreta of a potential predator did not have any significant effect on hamsters. The combined influence of volatile and nonvolatile components of the polecat’s excretions caused physiological stress in Ph. campbelli, while in Ph. sungorus, on the contrary, an increase in thymus weight and the plasma testosterone level was recorded.     

How Do Groups Solve Local Commons Dilemmas? Lessons from Experimental Economics in the Field

The use of experimental settings to observe human behaviour in a controlled environment of incentives, rules and institutions, has been widely used by the behavioural sciences for sometime now, particularly by psychology and economics. In most cases the subjects are college students recruited for one to two hour decision making exercises in which, depending on their choices, they earn cash averaging US$ 20. In such exercises players face a set of feasible actions, rules and incentives (payoffs) involving different forms of social exchange with other people, and that in most cases involve some kind of externalities with incomplete contracts, such as in the case of common-pool resources situations. Depending on the ecological and institutional settings, the resource users face a set of feasible levels of extraction, a set of rules regarding the control or monitoring of individual use, and sometimes ways of imposing material or non-material costs or rewards to those breaking or following the rules. We brought the experimental lab to the field and invited about two hundred users of natural resources in three Colombian rural villages to participate in such decision making exercises and through these and other research instruments we learned about the ways they solve - or fail to - tragedies of the commons with different social institutions. Further, bringing the lab to the field allowed us to explore some of the limitations of existing models about human behaviour and its consequences for designing policies for conserving ecosystems and improving social welfare.     

Latitudinal variation in size of freshwater pulmonate mollusks (Mollusca: Gastropoda: Pulmonata) in Western Siberia

The size of shells in some freshwater pulmonate mollusk species abundant in Western Siberia (Lymnaea fragilis, L. terebra, Planorbis planorbis, and Anisus leucostoma) is relatively large in the south and decreases in the north. It is supposed that this phenomenon is explained by the fact that the season with conditions allowing the growth of mollusks is shorter in the north than in the south of Western Siberia.