大气中微量物质引起地球气温变暖

近来,全球范围的环境问题已作为制约社会发展的重大问题提到了各国的议事日程上。其中,CO_2等大气中的微量物质引起气候变化的问题,已经成为世界各国科学家普遍关注的研究课题。大气中含有微量的二氧化碳、一氧化二氮、甲烷、氯氟碳化物类(或称氟利昂气)以及臭氧等物质,它们具有在地表附近,阻碍太阳照射到地球表面后的热量散发出去的作用,这就是“温室效应”,而这些气体则称为温室气体(GHGS)。这些温室气体在大气中的浓度,至今仍然非常低,但确有增加的趋势(见表1),造成地表和围绕着地球的大气下部变暖。其结果将给未来的气候变化带来较大影响。有关“温室气体”引起气候变化的科学的最新     

防止地球变暖的新思路——深埋二氧化碳

如何应对因大量排放二氧化碳等温室气体而引发的全球气候变暖威胁？近年来,一种通过将二氧化碳浓缩后填埋于地下的环保技术（简称CCS）正逐渐在欧美国家启用。2010年1月1日,国际石油巨头英荷壳牌石油公司计划在荷兰巴伦德雷赫特市建一座地下二氧化碳填埋场,却引起了当地5万民众的强力抵制。虽然壳牌一直宣称该项目“绝对安全”,但上至市长下至普通民众,都没人敢相信壳牌的说法。有专家称,该技术或许真的能够为缓解全球气候变暖出一份力,但一旦发生泄漏,后果可能不堪设想。     

平衡论--宇宙·地球·人之平衡

环境保护具有许多理念,然而最基本的当属平衡理念。它不仅揭示了自然界大到天体小到原子的运行的本质,而且也客观地反映了人体及人类社会发展的内在规律。它充满时空,不依人的意志为转移。 古人称空间为宇,时间为宙。现代理论则认为,宇宙是由时空和质能构成。时空是宇宙的表象,质能才是宇宙的本质。宇宙的产生既是时空与质能平衡的始和终,也是其循环往复的过程。作为一个封闭系统,不论从体积最小时的大爆炸临界状态,还是一直到体积最大时的回缩临界状态,宇宙的总质能保持定值,也就是说,宇宙在任何时空下,其质量和能量之和保     

人类向地球透支的账单已到期

去年12月1日至12日,联合国气候会议在波兰的波兹南市举行。一份来自雅加达国际林业研究中心的报告,敦促会议商讨保护发展中国家森林的方法,“否则气候变化可能对世界森林以及靠森林谋生的近10亿人造成灾难性影响”。     

聂军胜:为了让地球更加美好

正3月,美国的纽约。很难形容这座城市给人何种观感,但在聂军胜眼中,无论第五大道的Tiffany总店有多阔绰,帝国大厦上演过多少感天动地的爱情故事,"两万年前以前,这里不过是覆盖了3公里厚度的冰盖而已。"他口中淡然飘出的这句话,足以让人吃惊一下。78年生人,不到40岁。兰州大学"翠英学者"特聘教授、博士生导师,入选教育部"海外新世纪人才"、第四届"刘东生青年地球科学家奖",兰州大学西部环境与气候变化研究院教授聂军胜,早已在世界     

碳中和目标下海洋地球工程的国际法规制和政策启示

碳中和目标的实现需要充分开发海洋碳汇的潜力。海洋施肥、人工海洋上升流、海洋碱化是三种旨在提升海洋碳汇的地球工程技术。本文从海洋地球工程活动合法性、海洋环境保护义务和气候变化公约体系三个方面论述海洋地球工程的国际法框架。首先,《伦敦倾倒公约》和《伦敦议定书》中关于“倾倒”的定义不适用于海洋地球工程活动涉及的以吸收二氧化碳为目的投放铁或碱性物粉末或放置管道的行为。《关于规制以海洋施肥和其他以海洋地球工程活动为目的投放物质的伦敦议定书修正案》将海洋施肥活动限制在通过了完整的环境影响评价的“合理科学研究”范围内。目前这一限制不适用于其他海洋地球工程技术,但随着对其他技术研究的深入,修正案限制范围有可能会扩大。其次,《联合国海洋法公约》和《生物多样性公约》中有关海洋环境和海洋生态保护的公约条款适用于海洋地球工程活动,其中有关环境影响评价的义务与海洋地球工程的发展密切相关。再次,《联合国气候变化框架公约》以及《巴黎协定》中关于国家自主贡献的规定为实施海洋地球工程提供了鼓励性规则。最后,本文就中国关于该技术的实验活动以及未来应用该技术的场景下涉及的遵约和治理问题进行展望。当前不与国际法冲突的发展模式是进行小规模试验研究、建立海洋碳汇方法学标准、核算海洋碳汇经济价值,推动海洋碳汇换算核证自愿减排量进入碳市场交易;在实践中鼓励将开发海洋碳汇与低碳渔业养殖、陆海统筹增汇等方法相结合。未来能否大规模实施海洋地球工程技术取决于对海洋生态环境相关影响研究的进展。     

Global Warming and Global Dioxide Emission: An Empirical Study

In this paper, the dynamic relationship between global surface temperature (global warming) and global carbon dioxide emission (CO₂) is modelled and analyzed by causality and spectral analysis in the time domain and frequency domain, respectively. Historical data of global CO₂emission and global surface temperature anomalies over 129 years from 1860–1988 are used in this study. The causal relationship between the two phenomena is first examined using the Sim and Granger causality test in the time domain after the data series are filtered by ARIMA models. The Granger causal relationship is further scrutinized and confirmed by cross-spectral and multichannel spectral analysis in the frequency domain. The evidence found from both analyses proves that there is a positive causal relationship between the two variables. The time domain analysis suggests that Granger causality exists between global surface temperature and global CO₂emission. Further, CO₂emission causes the change in temperature. The conclusions are further confirmed by the frequency domain analysis, which indicates that the increase in CO₂emission causes climate warming because a high coherence exists between the two variables. Furthermore, it is proved that climate changes happen after an increase in CO₂emission, which confirms that the increase in CO₂emission does cause global warming.     

How do Local Governments in Mexico City Manage Global Warming?

Cities are both significant emitters of carbon dioxide and centres of innovations that may contribute to de-carbonizing our societies. More voices claim therefore that local authorities should be included in efforts to mitigate climate change. However, few studies have analysed how local authorities manage carbon and climate in urban areas in middle- and low-income countries. Yet, the institutional settings and governance structures of such cities are different from those prevailing in cities of wealthy countries. This paper aims to fill this gap by exploring: (a) whether and—if so—how local authorities in Mexico City actually 'manage' carbon emissions; (b) how the city's evolving governance structures function and whether they 'fit' with the problem they address; and (c) how institutional capacity constrains authorities' management efforts. The paper suggests that policy networks and research groups have been critical in launching a climate agenda. Nevertheless, this has not been enough to push effective policies. Policymaking has been constrained by two sets of institutional factors: the problem of fit and a lack of institutional capacity.     

全球变暖对人类健康的影响与对策研究

全球变暖是当前人类所面临的一个非常严重的环境问题。全球变暖等环境问题的产生是与人类的各种活动息息相关的，环境的恶化必将给人类的健康带来严重的后果。本文吸收了较新的科学发现对全球变暖成因进行了阐述；综合该领域近年的研究进展，将全球变暖对人类健康的影响纳为三个方面，并作了比较详尽的分析；从多个方面探讨了应对策略。     

Global Warming Impact of Electricity Generation from Beef Cattle Manure: A Life Cycle Assessment Study

We compare calculated greenhouse gas emissions for a North American beef feedlot operation, which includes biogas production by anaerobic digestion with subsequent electricity generation (the AD case), to the emissions for a “business as usual” case, which includes both a feedlot and an equivalent amount of grid-generated electricity. Anaerobic digestion, biogas production and electricity production are the major sources of differences in emissions. Fertilizer production, crop production, manure collection and spreading, as well as the associated transport stages are also considered within the LCA system boundaries; impacts on life cycle emissions from these sources are lower. Running a feedlot and producing electricity using typical grid power plants produces 3,845 kg CO_2?eq/MWh while running a feedlot, which generates biogas to produce electricity, produces 2,965 kg CO_2?eq/MWh. This savings of 880 kg CO_2?eq/MWh arises because the net power generation in the AD case emits about 90% less life cycle GHG emissions compared to grid-average electricity. The high overall emission levels arise due to emissions associated with enteric fermentation in beef cattle as the main source of GHG emissions in both the “business as usual” and the AD cases. It contributed 57% of total emissions for the feedlot /biogas /electricity system and 44% of total emissions for the feedlot /grid electricity system.     

How Science Contributes to Environmental Reporting in British Newspapers: A Case Study of the Reporting of Global Warming and Climate Change

This article examines the role of science in environmental reporting in a number of British newspapers. The findings indicated that in reporting about global warming and climate change, the views of scientists were used to give legitimacy to the content of articles. However, in both the tabloids and broadsheets, there was little evidence provided, in the form of data, to substantiate the claims being made. Furthermore, uncertainties about global warming were not explored effectively. Newspaper reports tended to focus on the potential consequences of global warming, but made little attempt to address the suspected causes that would inevitably involve criticism of highly consumptive lifestyles in the west.     

Trends in Raindrop Kinetic Energy with Modeled Climate Warming in the Lake Tahoe Basin

Two means by which climate change may increase surface soil erosion in mountainous terrain are: (1) increasing the frequency of extreme rainfall events and (2) decreasing the duration of snow cover on bare soil. We used output from four general circulation models (GCMs) and two greenhouse gas trajectories to produce a suite of hydrologic variables at a daily time‐step for historic and projected 21st Century conditions. We statistically disaggregated the daily rainfall to hourly, using hourly rainfall from a network of nine weather stations in the Tahoe Basin, and filtered out rain falling on a snowpack. We applied published equations to convert hourly intensity to raindrop kinetic energy (KE) for each day and grid cell in the Basin, averaged across grid cells, and created time series of total annual and maximum annual hourly kinetic energy (TKE and MKE) on snow‐free ground. Using the Generalized Extreme Value distribution, we calculated the significance of long‐term trends in KE on snow‐free ground, and estimated energy levels for return periods of 2, 20, and 100 years. We then detrended the snowpack data and compared the resulting trends in KE with the trends resulting from changes in both rainfall energy and snowpack under two GCMs. Principal findings include (1) upward trends in MKE, (2) stronger upward trends in TKE; and (3) an effect of increasing rainfall intensities on KE in some cases, and a strong effect of reduced snowpack in all cases examined.     

Global warming is breeding social conflict: The subtle impact of climate change threat on authoritarian tendencies

Climate change can increase societies’ propensity to conflict by changes in socio-structural conditions (e.g., resource scarcity, migration). We propose an additional, subtle, and general effect of climate change threat via increases in authoritarian attitudes. Three studies in Germany and the UK support this suggestion. Reminding participants of the adverse consequences climate change may have for their country increased the derogation of societal groups that may threaten the collective (e.g., criminals) as well as general authoritarian attitudes. Salient climate change threats also led to system justification and approval of system supporting groups (e.g., judges) in those people who were highly identified with their nation. We discuss the implications of these findings for the explanation of authoritarian attitudes and the question of how societies may cope with the subtle social psychological effects of climate change.     

大连与相关城市综合发展能力比较研究

一个城市的综合发展能力是由包括规模指标、结构指标、效益指标、软硬环境指标等丰富内涵的经济、社会、环境综合与协调状况。根据经济与社会综合协调发展水平构建城市综合发展能力指标体系,应用主成分分析法对大连等19个城市的43个指标进行综合评判。根据计算结果,在进行综合评估的基础上,分别从经济发展水平、社会发展水平、发展与投资环境三方面对19个城市进行比较分析,对大连市存在的问题与原因进行了探讨。     

Biotechnology is compatible with sustainable agriculture

Biotechnology can provide appropriate new tools for use in solution of specific problems in sustainable agriculture. Its usefulness will depend in large part on the degree to which sustainable agriculturists understand the utility of biotechnology and apply it toward ends they deem important. Biotechnology can give little assistance to sustainable agriculture in the short term. It can be more useful in the medium term, and it could be highly useful in the long term as an integral part of the art and science of plant breeding and other components of sustainable agriculture systems.