经济增长与能源消费关系研究综述

经济增长与能源消费的关系一直是经济学研究的热点问题之一.自20世纪70年代石油危机爆发以来,出现了大量研究能源价格对经济增长影响的文献.进入2l世纪,环境污染、能源短缺等问题逐渐凸显出来,研究焦点也转向了经济增长与能源消费的关系上.国内学者从20世纪90年代开始关注该领域,作者分别综述了国内外学者在该领域的代表性研究成果.     

Supporting sustainable electricity technologies in Greece using MCDM

The penetration of sustainable technologies in electricity generation is low until now in Greece. However, the recent adoption of legislative rules towards the effective operation of liberalized markets, as well as the increased impact of climate change on the electricity sector towards the period 2008–2012, bring out these technologies as key means for establishing conditions of security, stability and environmental protection. The objective of this paper is to put on the map the sustainable technologies for electricity generation in Greece through the formulation of a collective interactive supportive framework, using an existing multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method to elaborate more realistic and transparent outcomes. The approach was implemented under the umbrella of the national Foresight Programme, to assist policy making for sustainable electricity generation technologies.     

Uranium resource appraisal: Past trends and outlook for adequacy of supply

As uranium has practically no other industrial uses besides electricity generation, demand is determined by the requirements and stockpiling policies of electric utilities. The uranium market has experienced strong fluctuations and is currently affected by the reductions in nuclear forecasts resulting from the slowdown in electricity demand. Analysing supply/demand indicators proves, however, that in retrospect the development has been relatively smooth and it appears that oversupply is more a consequence of overly optimistic short-term expectations. In the future, especially in the long term, nuclear power policies continue to be concerned with striking a proper balance between increasing production capability and development of new reactor technologies which would be less dependent on the availability of uranium. A bounding scenario approach is applied in this article to the assessment of adequacy of supply under varying assumptions on the total installed nuclear capacity, available resource base and attainable production capability.     

Electricity price and Southern California’s water supply options

This paper evaluates the impact of fluctuating electricity prices on the cost of five options to increase the water supply to urban areas in Southern California—new surface storage, water purchases, desalination, wastewater recycling, and conservation.We show that the price of electricity required to produce and transport water influences the cost of water supply options and may alter the decision makers economic ranking of these options. When electricity prices are low, water purchase is the cost effective option. When prices exceed US$ 86/MWh, conservation of electricity and water through installation of high efficiency clothes washers is the most effective option.     

Implementation of the European IPPC Directive—BAT guidelines for the cement industry in Cyprus

The European Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control (IPPC) Directive 96/61/EC aims to introduce a European-wide system of integrated prevention and control of pollution in order to secure a high level of protection to the environment as a whole. It places obligations on the Member States (MS) to introduce controls that ensure operators comply with the Directive. In this framework, as a part of the implementation process leading to formal accession of Cyprus to the European Union, the National Technical University of Athens has examined all documents related to the Best Available Techniques (BATs) published by Institutes and Organisations, such as the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies in Spain, the Environmental Protection Agency in Ireland, the World Bank Group and the Ministry for the Environment, Planning and Public Works in Greece. A series of guidelines were developed for the application of BATs for 14 categories of the Cypriot industry that fall into the IPPC Directive. The concept of BATs plays a central role in the Directive because it provides a basis for setting Emission Limit Values (ELVs) as well as the principal benchmark for determining the obligations of industrial operators in respect of pollution prevention and control. This paper presents the guidelines for cement manufacture in Cyprus.     

The benefits and costs of reducing emissions from the electricity sector

Recent federal policy proposals to reduce emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO(2)), nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), and mercury from the US electricity sector promise important improvements in air quality and reductions in acid deposition. The cost of achieving these reductions depends on the form and stringency of the regulation. In this research, we analyze the economic benefits and costs of the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) as characterized in the supplemental rule proposed in June 2004, and the Clean Air Mercury Rule (CAMR) as proposed in February 2004. The assessment integrates a model of the electricity sector, two models of atmospheric transport of air pollutants, and a model of environmental and public health endpoints affected by pollution. We model explicitly the emissions of SO(2), NO(x), mercury and carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and the effects of changes in emissions of SO(2) and NO(x) on environmental and public health. The manner in which mercury emissions are regulated will have important implications not only for the cost of the regulation, but also for emission levels for SO(2) and NO(x) and where those emissions are located. We find the economic benefits of CAIR and CAMR are far greater than the costs. Recent estimates of benefits of reductions in mercury and acidification indicate that our model captures the lion's share of quantifiable benefits. We also find that the EPA would have been justified on economic grounds in pursuing additional SO(2) emissions reductions beyond the requirements of CAIR.     

Changes in fuelwood use and selection following electrification in the Bushbuckridge lowveld, South Africa

Fuelwood is the primary energy source for domestic purposes throughout the developing world, in both urban and rural environments. Due to the detrimental impacts of biomass use on human and environmental health, many governments have sought to reduce its use through provision of potentially cleaner energies, of which electricity is the dominant form. Yet there are surprisingly few studies of changes in fuelwood use following the introduction of electricity, especially in rural areas of Africa. This paper reports on a longitudinal study of fuelwood use, using identical approaches, in five rural villages in the Bushbuckridge region of South Africa, spanning the period over which electricity became widely available. Almost a decade after the introduction of electricity, over 90% of households still used fuelwood for thermal purposes, especially cooking, and the mean household consumption rates over the 11-year period had not changed, even with a policy of 6 kWh per month of free electricity. The proportion of households purchasing fuelwood had increased, probably in response to a number of factors, including (i) increased fuelwood scarcity in the local environment as reflected by increased fuelwood collection times, changes in fuelwood species preferences, and ranking of scarcity by local collectors, and (ii) increases in the price of fuelwood well below that of other fuels and the prevailing inflation rate. Overall, there was an increase in the number of species harvested over the 11-year period. The implications of these findings for rural energy provision are discussed.     

促进农村居民消费需求扩张的对策分析

通过对影响我国农村居民消费需求不足的原因分析，认为我国农村居民收入水平偏低且增长缓慢是导致需求不足的关键因素。此外商品有效供给不足、农村的消费观念、消费环境和农村居民的文化素质也在一定程度上影响了农村居民的消费需求。     

三峡工程移民卫生防病现状调查报告

本文报道了三峡工程四川库区移民安置区的自然疫源性疾病，虫媒传染病，介水传染病和地方病等的目前流行态势和环境卫生状况；预测了移民过程中地潜在危险，针对存在的问题，指出加强移民的卫生防病，对保护移民健康，保障移民工作顺利进行了是十分重要的。     

环境污染犯罪双层次因果关系理论的构建

通过对案例的梳理发现环境污染犯罪因果关系是认定犯罪的肯綮之处。梳理各类因果关系学说理论,对疫学因果关系、间接反证法、因果关系的推定理论等学说进行对比研究,结果表明应借鉴疫学上因果关系进行归因性条件基础判断。因果关系的本质不仅是一种事实性归因判断,更是一种规范性客观归责判断,因此可以借助客观归责理论作为规范性判断标准,应坚持刑法的必要性、辅助性和最后手段性的原则,允许一定的抗辩型理由。     

COMARE 11th report: an alternative interpretation

The 11th report of COMARE (Committee on Medical Aspects of Radiation in the Environment) established that the incidence of some childhood cancers, including leukaemia, is inversely related to population density in England, Wales and Scotland, and is particularly high in Buckinghamshire. Using a photographic archive survey, the present paper notes that population density is also inversely related to overhead wire domestic electricity supply in Buckinghamshire. Factors associated with domestic electricity supply may be relevant to the geographical distribution of some childhood cancers.     

Potential for electricity savings by reducing potable water consumption in a city scale

Nowadays, it is very important that water and energy resources are used appropriately as this is a challenge to promote sustainable development. In some sectors, such as water and sewerage utilities, energy consumption depends on water consumption. The main objective of this work is to estimate the potential for electricity savings in a water and sewerage utility by reducing potable water consumption in the residential, commercial and public sectors in the city of Florianópolis, southern Brazil. These three sectors account for 98.9% of the total water consumption in the city. By using data related to energy consumption and costs that apply to the local water utility for water and sewage treatment, and also the potential for potable water savings over the three sectors, it is possible to estimate the potential for energy savings by reducing potable water consumption and sewage treatment. Potable water savings were estimated by using data available in the literature about water end-uses for different types of buildings located in Florianópolis. Three options were considered: installing dual-flush toilets, reusing greywater and using rainwater. The average potential for potable water savings were 30.0%, 53.4% and 60.3%, respectively, for the residential, commercial and public sectors. Thus, the average potable water savings amount to about 10,153,835 m³/year, and the electricity savings amount to 4.4 GW h/year, which would be enough to supply 1217 houses or flats in Florianópolis, with an average energy consumption of 300 kW h/month.     

Creating biodiversity partnerships: The Nature Conservancy's perspective

The Nature Conservancy is an international organization dedicated to the mission of conserving biodiversity throughout the world. By working in a nonconfrontational manner, an approach that has promoted both government and corporate sponsorship of its activities, The Nature Conservancy has developed symbiotic relationships with many electric utility companies. Drawing on the organization's experiences, and the experiences of the author as the President and Chief Executive Officer of The Nature Conservancy, five broad areas of cooperation between conservation organizations and the utility industry are explored: landmanagement agreements, mitigation projects, conflictavoidance programs, program support, and volunteer activities. The paper is concluded with comments on the future trends of biodiversity conservation, challenging the electric utility industry to become involved with conservation efforts by forming cooperative partnerships.     

Modeling Hydraulic and Thermal Electricity Production Based on Genetic Algorithm-Time Series (GATS)

Abstract

This study deals with the estimation of electricity production from hydraulic and thermal sources using the Genetic Algorithm (GA) with time series (TS) approach. Two forms of the mathematical models are developed, of which one is exponential and the second is polynomial. The power form of the Genetic Algorithm-Time Series (GATS) model is used for the thermal electricity production. The polynomial form of the GATS is used for the electricity production from the hydraulic sources. The GATS weighting parameters are obtained by minimizing the Sum of Squared Error (SSE) between observed and estimated electricity production from both sources. Therefore, the fitness function adapted is the minimization of the SSE for use in the GA process. The application of the GATS model is correspondingly presented. Some future scenarios are made to increase the electricity production from hydraulic sources. Variations of the electricity production from thermal and hydraulic energy sources are analyzed. Future prospects of electricity production are dealt with in terms of policy changes. The GATS models are used for making scenarios for future electricity planning policy. Results also show if current trend continues, the thermal electricity production amounts to 75% of the total electricity production, which is undesirable for environmental concerns. Results also shows that if new policy is to move from the thermal to hydraulic electricity production, the hydraulic sources will meet the demand until 2020.     

Integrating industrial ecology principles into a set of environmental sustainability indicators for technology assessment

This paper focuses on the environmental component of sustainability of technology, taking into account the role of industrial ecology. Assessment of environmental sustainability of technology traditionally focuses on immediate impact of technology on the environment through quantifying resource extraction and generated emissions. However, technology does not only exchange materials with the environment but also with the industrial society as a whole, the so-called industrial metabolism. A higher compatibility of a specific technology with the industrial system, as studied in industrial ecology, can result in lower resource extraction and reduced waste emission, indirectly contributing to a better environmental sustainability.Starting from the considerations above and based on the second law of thermodynamics, the paper presents a set of five environmental sustainability indicators for the assessment of products and production pathways, integrating industrial ecology principles. The indicators, all scaled between 0 and 1, take into account: (1) renewability of resources; (2) toxicity of emissions; (3) input of used materials; (4) recoverability of products at the end of their use; (5) process efficiency.The applicability of the elaborated set of indicators is illustrated for different production pathways of alcohols (petrochemical and oleochemical based), polyethylene end-of-life options and electricity production from non-renewable (natural gas and fossil oil) and renewable resources (hydropower, photovoltaic conversion of solar irradiation).     

Forecasting precious metal price movements using trader positions

In the early 2000s, the precious metal markets entered into a new phase where a steady rise of prices had been observed until the October 2008 crash. Given the size and importance of precious metal market, as well as the hedging capacity of precious metals due to their low correlation with equity markets (Draper et al., 2006), the question we want to arise is whether trader positions predict the direction of gold, platinum, and silver spot price movements. The forecasting content of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Commitment of Traders report for platinum, silver and gold prices using trader positions is investigated in a VAR framework. Granger causality tests are conducted to determine whether a relation between trader positions and market prices exists. An examination of the extreme trader positions on price movements is also conducted. The results indicate that market return is a significant parameter in explaining trader’s positions for all trader types in each of the precious metal markets under consideration after the beginning of 2000s where we detect a structural break for each of the market under study. Commercial traders are found to be negative feedback traders, that is, they sell when the prices increase in the market. On the other hand, in line with the previous literature, a positive correlation between returns and positions held by non-commercial and non-reporting traders is found. However, trader’s net positions do not lead market returns in general. There is some evidence on the forecasting ability of extreme trader positions on market returns.