Oil spills on other commodities

This paper examines the effect of crude oil prices on the prices of 35 internationally traded primary commodities for the 1960–2005 period. It finds that the pass-through of crude oil price changes to the overall non-energy commodity index is 0.16. At a more disaggregated level, the fertilizer index had the highest pass-through (0.33), followed by agriculture (0.17), and metals (0.11). The prices of precious metals also exhibited a strong response to crude oil price. In terms of individual commodities, the estimates of the food group exhibited remarkable similarity while those of raw materials and metals gave a mixed picture. The implication is that if crude oil prices remain high for some time, as most analysts expect, then the recent commodity price boom is likely to last much longer than earlier booms, at least for food commodities. The other commodities, however, are likely to follow diverging paths. On the methodological side, the results show that price indices, while providing useful summary statistics, they need to be supplemented by individual commodity analysis.     

The significance of futures trading in minerals and oil

Futures trading has been introduced for aluminium and oil in recent years and the range of contracts available on various minerals and oil products continues to widen. Concern has been expressed by producers of a number of minerals, including nickel and platinum, that the introduction of futures trading may introduce a speculative element to price determination that will create inappropriate or excessively volatile prices. It is the purpose of this article to analyse the role of futures trading in relation to trade in underlying commodities in general and especially for trade in minerals and oil. Evidence from oil and platinum markets, in particular, is adduced and examined in the light of earlier evidence of the influence of futures trading on underlying commodities. The contribution of futures trading is examined in detail and conclusions are reached on the significance of futures trading for minerals and oil.     

Oil and gas reserves of the Middle East and North Africa

A quantitative estimate of the petroleum reserves of the Middle East and North Africa is presented and analysed in terms of the region's ability to meet current market demand for a sweet light crude. Costs of Middle East production are compared with those of other oil-producing regions. With an average costs of US$4/bbl, the Middle East has both the largest oil reserves and the lowest cost oil in the world. While new and improved technology of exploration and production may lessen this price advantage in the future, it will not eliminate it. Because of these two factors, the Middle East will continue to play an important role on the world energy stage well into the next century.     

Industry to Industry By-products Exchange Network towards zero waste in palm oil refining processes

This paper presents a systematic framework for optimal utilization of by-products generated during crude palm oil refining processes. Three by-products are considered in the supply chain network: soapstock, palm fatty acid distillate (PFAD) and spent bleaching earth (SBE). These by-products, generated from neutralization, deodorization and bleaching processes, are viable feedstocks to other commercial industries such as animal feed, biodiesel, lubricant and soap. The case study is formulated as Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) and integrated into the framework with the objective to maximize the refinery's profit as well as moving towards a conscious mindset of zero waste. This is the first time that such framework is developed and applied for the palm oil industry. The framework is called as Industry to Industry By-products Exchange Network (I2IBEN). An illustrative case study demonstrates a significant potential profit of MYR182, 893 per month.     

Theory of storage,inventory and volatility in the LME base metals

The theory of storage, as related to commodities, makes two predictions involving the quantity of the commodity held in inventory. When inventory is low (i.e. a situation of scarcity), spot prices will exceed futures prices, and spot price volatility will exceed futures price volatility. Conversely, during periods of no scarcity, both spot prices and spot price volatility will remain relatively subdued. We test these predictions for the six base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange (aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc), and find strong validation for the theory. Including Chinese inventories reported by the Shanghai Futures Exchange strengthens the relationship further. We also introduce the concepts of excess volatility, inventory-implied spot price and inventory-implied spot volatility and illustrate some applications.     

The crude oil market and the gold market: Evidence for cointegration,causality and price discovery

Given that the gold market and the crude oil market are the main representatives of the large commodity markets, it is of crucial practical significance to analyze their cointegration relationship and causality, and investigate their respective contribution, from the perspective of price discovery, to the common price trend so as to interpret the dynamics of the whole large commodity market and forecast the fluctuation of crude oil and gold prices.     

石油污染生物修复技术研究

本文概述了影响石油污染物生物降解修复处理的多种因素，对石油污染生物处理技术的发展进行了展望。其中主要影响因素包括：菌种的影响，菌种在不同的环境中和对不同碳链长度的碳氢化合物表现出不同的降解效率；石油物质本身物理化学特性的影响，如石油物质在水体或土壤中的浓度以及石油的粘度、沸点、折射率等特性；生存环境条件的影响，在接种入高效率的降解菌或利用土著微生物进行降解时，降解率受到生存环境中各种条件的影响，如表面活性剂、光照条件、吸附剂的利用、营养盐、共代谢底物、氧气、温度、盐度等。     

Estimation of “environmentally sensitive” dispersal ratios for chemical dispersants used in crude oil spill control

The toxicities of two dispersants (Biosolve and OSD 9460), Forcados light crude oil and their mixtures based on ratios 6:1, 9:1, and 12:1 (v/v) were evaluated against the juvenile stage of African catfish, Clarias gariepinus, in laboratory bioassays. On the basis of the derived toxicity indices, Biosolve (96-h LC₅₀ = 0.211 μl/l) was found to be about 27,284 times more toxic than crude oil (96-h LC₅₀ = 5.757 ml/l) and 6,450 times more toxic than OSD 9460 (96-h LC₅₀ = 1.361 ml/l). OSD 9460 was also found to be four times more toxic than crude oil when acting alone against C. gariepinus. Toxicity evaluations of the mixtures of crude oil/dispersants mixtures varied, depending largely upon the proportion of addition of the mixture components. The interactions between mixture of crude oil and Biosolve at the test ratios of 6:1, 9:1, and 12:1 were found to conform with the model of synergism (SR = 7,655, 14,876, and 8,792, respectively), and the mixtures were therefore more toxic than the crude oil acting singly. Similarly, the interactions between mixture of crude oil and OSD 9460 at the test ratios of 6:1 and 9:1 also conformed to the model of synergism (SR = 2.2 and 1.84, respectively). Interactions between the dispersant OSD 9460 and the crude oil at test ratio 12:1, however, conformed to the model of antagonism (SR = 0.84), indicating that the mixture was less toxic than crude oil acting alone. The results of the emulsification potential of OSD 9460 and Biosolve [measured in terms of optical transmittance (%)] prepared at the dispersal ratios 6:1, 9:1, and 12:1 revealed that the dispersal ratio of 6:1 achieved the highest emulsification of the crude oil with optical transmittance value of 4% and 6%, respectively. Estimation of an “environmentally sensitive” dispersal ratio for OSD 9460 and Biosolve revealed the optimum dispersal ratio for OSD 9460 range between ratios 7.5:1 and 9:1, while for Biosolve such an optimum dispersal ratio was indeterminate within the range of test dispersal ratios. The implications of these results in setting manufacturer’s and regulatory dispersal ratios for chemical dispersants used for oil spill control were discussed.     

From exogenous to endogenous development in Scottish forestry: the feasibility of small-scale wood energy enterprise

This paper presents a change in the Scottish forestry policy from the exogenous to the endogenous development approach, and feasibility of heat entrepreneurship based on locally produced woodfuels in the Highlands of Scotland. The cost structure and heat pricing in the case of an 800 kW solid fuel boiler is presented, and the profitability of local heat entrepreneurship is analysed with scenarios of different investment costs and fuel prices. The results indicate that a district heating (DH) system, using locally produced woodchips, could produce heat at a lower price than single-house heating systems using light fuel oil. The profitability of replacing existing heating units by investing in a new district heating (DH) scheme is very dependent on the available investment support, price level of woodchips and substituted light fuel oil, and the amount of sold energy. In the case of an 800 kW DH scheme, and woodchip prices of 14 and 22 €/MWh, investments should remain under break-even points of 280 and 420 €/kW of heating power (230,000–335,000€).     

The supply and demand outlook for energy in the Asia—Pacific region

Years of strong economic growth in the Asia—Pacific region have resulted in unprecedented increases in energy demand in the region, particularly for oil and gas. The supply of oil and gas to the region will become more problematic as the decade progresses. Already 50% dependent on imported oil, this figure will rise to nearly 65% by 2000. Because high rates of domestic oil demand growth among traditional petroleum exporters - Indonesia. China and Malaysia - will absorb exportable surpluses, the region will find itself dependent on the Middle East for at least 90% of its imported oil needs by 2000. Currently linked to oil, LNG prices cannot justify the investments needed to bring new greenfield projects on line. With demand expected to exceed 67 million tonnes (Mt) in 2000 and 100 Mt in 2010. over 50 Mt of new capacity will be needed; satisfying this demand will necessitate a new pricing structure for LNG, raising the price substantially above the relative price of crude oil.     

Long term contracts and market stability: The case of iron ore

The paper gives the background to the international iron ore trade and discusses the organization of markets and causes of instability. The role of the long term contract is then examined and possible relationships between prices and quantity instability and the pattern of use of long term contracts is considered. It is concluded that although such contracts tend to promote market stability this may conflict with the need for market readjustment.     

Correlation structure between inflation and oil futures returns: An equilibrium approach

We use an equilibrium model of a monetary economy to understand the economics behind the correlation between inflation and oil futures returns. We find that some of the positive correlation found in empirical studies is due to the fact that oil is in the consumption basket; however, this accounts only for a minor part of it. There exist other important sources of correlation related to monetary shocks and output shocks. In particular, we find that the correlation is extremely sensitive to the reaction of the central bank to output shocks, while the reaction to inflation changes is less significant. We estimate our model using maximum likelihood with the following data sets: crude oil futures prices, nominal interest rates, inflation rates and money supply growth rates. Our estimates suggest that the monetary authority overreacts to output shocks by increasing the money supply in a more than necessary amount, generating a significant source of positive correlation. From a practical perspective, We find that it is a good strategy to use as a hedge, the futures whose maturity is closer to the hedging horizon. This is particularly true for short-term hedging.     

Petrochemicals from oil,natural gas,coal and biomass: Production costs in 2030–2050

Methane, coal and biomass are being considered as alternatives to crude oil for the production of basic petrochemicals, such as light olefins. This paper is a study on the production costs of 24 process routes utilizing these primary energy sources. A wide range of projected energy prices in 2030–2050 found in the open literature is used. The basis for comparison is the production cost per t of high value chemicals (HVCs or light olefin-value equivalent). A Monte Carlo method was used to estimate the ranking of production costs of all 24 routes with 10,000 trials of varying energy prices and CO₂ emissions costs (assumed to be within $0–100/t CO₂; the total CO₂ emissions, or cradle-to-grave CO₂ emissions, were considered). High energy prices in the first three quarter of 2008 were tested separately. The main findings are:

• •Production costs: while the production costs of crude oil- and natural gas-based routes are within $500–900/t HVCs, those of coal- and biomass-based routes are mostly within $400–800/t HVCs. Production costs of coal- and biomass-based routes are in general quite similar while in some cases the difference is significant. Among the top seven most expensive routes, six are oil- and gas-based routes. Among the top seven least expensive routes, six are coal and biomass routes.
• •CO₂ emissions costs: the effect of CO₂ emissions costs was found to be strong on the coal-based routes and also quite significant on the biomass-based routes. However, the effect on oil- and gas-based routes is found to be small or relatively moderate.
• •Energy prices in 2008: most of the coal-based routes and biomass-based routes (particularly sugar cane) still have much lower production costs than the oil- and gas-based routes (even if international freight costs are included).

To ensure the reduction of CO₂ emissions in the long-term, we suggest that policies for the petrochemicals industry focus on stimulating the use of biomass as well as carbon capture and storage features for coal-based routes.     

Effect of bioremediation on the growth of Okro (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Abelmoshus esculetus</Emphasis>) in the Niger Delta soils

This paper communicates the effect of bioremediation on the performance of Okro plant (Abelmoshus esculentus) in a typical Niger Delta soil that has received 5% crude oil pollution level. Biodegrading bacteria such as Pseudomonas fluorescen, Acinetobacteria iwofii, Bacillus subtilus, Arthrobacter globiformis that was isolated from previously polluted soils was introduced into the samples. The treatment combinations are as follows (A) = control without crude oil; B = soil + crude oil, (C) = soil + crude oil + microbes, (D) = soil + crude oil + microbes, (E) = soil + crude oil + microbes + fertilizer (F) soil + microbes and (G) = soil + fertilizer. The treatment (E) gave the highest number of leaves, % crop emergence, plant biomass, microbial population and degradation of petroleum hydrocarbon compared to any of the treatments that had received crude oil. This suggested that fertilizer application does not only stimulate microbial growth but it provides the plant with more available nutrients required for plant growth.     

Broadening the statistical search for metal price super cycles to steel and related metals

During the past five years, industry analysts have proclaimed that metal prices are in the early phase of a ‘super cycle,’ driven primarily by Chinese industrial expansion. Academic economists have generally been very skeptical about the presence of long cycles. A time-series econometric analysis by Cuddington and Jerrett [2008. Super cycles in real metals prices? IMF Staff Pap. 55(4), in press], however, has used band-pass filtering techniques to isolate super cycles in the prices of six metals traded on the London Metal Exchange (the ‘LME6’). This paper extends the search for super-cycle behavior to three additional metal products that are critical in the early phases of industrial development and urbanization: steel, pig iron, and molybdenum (a key ingredient in many steel alloys). There is strong evidence of super cycles in these three metals, although their timing differs to some extent from the super cycles found for the LME6.     

回用锅炉的热采稠油采出水软化工艺

针对我国热采稠油油田所面临的采出水处理难的问题，对国内外热采稠油采出水的处理方法进行了广泛、深入、全面的调查研究。着重介绍了热采采出水作注汽锅炉给水的各种软化工艺及处理方法。     

International coal prices

The place coal will occupy among the world's energy supplies depends on many factors, including its price trends. This paper reviews recent price trends and supports the thesis that future coal prices are independent of oil prices, and that they will fluctuate between two limits which are based on production and transport costs in the USA and Australia.     

A Review of the External Positions of the Oil-Importing Developing Countries and their Relationship to the World Oil Market

Many oil-importing developing countries faced greater difficulties coping with the second oil shock (1979–80) than with the first (1973–74). The recent decline in oil prices has offset only a small part of the adverse effect of the earlier increases, and a number of these countries continue to face severe problems in servicing their external debt. This paper explores the reasons for these difficulties, which are associated in part with the higher levels of real interest rates in recent years and with the slowdown in economic activity in industrial countries. Estimates are provided of the effects of changing oil prices on the net real cost of oil imports in developing countries. The paper concludes with an assessment of the medium-term prospects for the financing of external deficits.     

废钻井液固化剂的筛选实验

针对目前许多废钻井液固化剂产品达不到降低污染物浓度的要求,而效果较好的产品价格昂贵,处理成本高,难以推广使用的问题,选取了9种固化剂进行固化实验,通过针入度测定仪、固化效果比对,参考相应市场价格,筛选出经济效益较高的固化剂,为同行业开展固化处理提供参考和借鉴。