Population Viability Analysis for an Endangered Plant

Abstract: Demographic modeling is used to understand the population viability of Furbish's lousewort, Pedicularis furbishiae , a perennial plant species endemic to the St. John River Valley in northern Maine. Environment-specific summaries of demographic parameters (survivorship, growth, and fecundity) over four years, organized into stage-based projection matrices, provide predictions of future population dynamics given a deterministic extension of past conditions. Stochastic modeling, using (I) empirically observed variation in demographic parameters, and (2) estimated rates of natural catastrophes, leads to predictions of extinction probability.
P. furbishiae viability has varied widely over the study period Viable populations with finite rates of increase > 1 are found where cover is low, woody plants do not dominate, and disturbance does not occur. Rates of increase vary over time, suggesting that stochastic analyses would be realistic. Stochastic measures of population viability incorporating environmental variation suggest that early successional environments, especially wetter sites, can support viable populations in the absence of disturbance. However; observed rates of natural catastrophe dominate viability estimates of individual populations. Metapopulation dynamics feature extinction rates that are greater than recolonization rates, and may be affected by land use in the watershed Species management needs to consider a large-scale view of the riverine corridor.     

Population Viability Analysis of Captive and Released Bearded Vulture Populations

With the computer program VORTEX I ran a series of simulations of the Bearded Vulture ( Gypaetus barbatus ) population held in captivity in European zoos and of the population released in the Alps. The simulations showed that the risk of extinction of the captive population with the extraction rates currently in use is low. It seems possible to maintain the current release rate of two fledglings per year at each of the four release sites in the Alps, but it does not seem possible to increase the release rate by expanding the project to other European mountains without dangerously depleting the captive population. The models showed that the most effective way to increase the release rate without increasing the captive population size is by improving hatching success in captivity. The information on the demographic parameters of the Bearded Vulture population released in the Alps was not good enough to predict the ultimate fate of the present population or to allow for recommendations on how long the population should continue to be supplemented. Although it will be necessary to wait some years to see if Bearded Vultures are able to breed in the wild in the Alps and to estimate fecundity rates, it should be possible to improve the monitoring of the individuals released to obtain more-precise survival estimates. The models of the captive and released population also showed that it should at least be possible to have an artificially supplemented Bearded Vulture population in the Alps, but because this is not the goal of the present reintroduction project, the organizations involved should decide whether this is a politically or economically desirable goal.     

Population Viability Analysis with Species Occurrence Data from Museum Collections

Abstract: The most comprehensive data on many species come from scientific collections. Thus, we developed a method of population viability analysis (PVA) in which this type of occurrence data can be used. In contrast to classical PVA, our approach accounts for the inherent observation error in occurrence data and allows the estimation of the population parameters needed for viability analysis. We tested the sensitivity of the approach to spatial resolution of the data, length of the time series, sampling effort, and detection probability with simulated data and conducted PVAs for common, rare, and threatened species. We compared the results of these PVAs with results of standard method PVAs in which observation error is ignored. Our method provided realistic estimates of population growth terms and quasi‐extinction risk in cases in which the standard method without observation error could not. For low values of any of the sampling variables we tested, precision decreased, and in some cases biased estimates resulted. The results of our PVAs with the example species were consistent with information in the literature on these species. Our approach may facilitate PVA for a wide range of species of conservation concern for which demographic data are lacking but occurrence data are readily available.     

Population Viability Analysis for a Small Population of Red-Cockaded Woodpeckers and an Evaluation of Enhancement Strategies

We performed a series of population and pedigree analyses to examine the viability of a small Red-cockaded Woodpecker ( Picoides borealis ) population located at the Savannah River Site, in Barnwell and Aiken counties of South Carolina. The population's existence and future survival are precarious. As few as four individuals, including just one breeding pair, comprised this population in 1985. Now, primarily because of experimental transformation of birds from other areas, the population has increased to 25. As of 1990, genealogy pedigree analysis showed that the respective contribution of 14 founders to the extant population has not been equal. Founder gender equivalents are low (5.4) but could reach 9.2 if poorly-represented founders were to produce offspring. The fraction of founder gene diversity retained in the current population is 0.91. Successful recovery strategies would ensure 95% probability of population survival while maintaining 90% heterozygosity for 200 years. Viability analyses indicated that, depending on relative effects of inbreeding depression and stochastic environmental events, the Savannah River Site population has a 68–100% chance of extinction during this period. Annual translocation into the population of at least three females and two males for a 10-year period will achieve a 96% probability of survival for 200 years. Even with translocation of numerous males and females per year (up to 50 of each), the 90% heterozygosity goal may not be achieved. We discuss recommendations for choosing individuals for translocation logistical constraints on achieving recovery objectives, and limitations of our modeling approach.     

The Reliability of Using Population Viability Analysis for Risk Classification of Species

I examine whether or not it is appropriate to use extinction probabilities generated by population viability analyses, based on best estimates for model parameters, as criteria for listing species in Red Data Book categories as recently proposed by the World Conservation Union. Such extinction probabilities are influenced by how accurately model parameters are estimated and by how accurately the models depict actual population dynamics. I evaluate the effect of uncertainty in parameter estimation through simulations. Simulations based on Steller sea lions were used to evaluate bias and precision in estimates of probability of extinction and to consider the performance of two proposed classification schemes. Extinction time estimates were biased (because of violation of the assumption of stable age distribution) and underestimated the variability of probability of extinction for a given time (primarily because of uncertainty in parameter estimation). Bias and precision in extinction probabilities are important when these probabilities are used to compare the risk of extinction between species. Suggestions are given for population viability analysis techniques that incorporate parameter uncertainty. I conclude that testing classification schemes with simulations using quantitative performance objectives should precede adoption of quantitative listing criteria.     

Population Viability Analysis of Spring Chinook Salmon in the South Umpqua River, Oregon

Run sizes of spring chinook salmon in the South Umpqua River in Oregon have declined dramatically since the early part of this century. Habitat degradation is thought to be an important factor contributing to the decline of this stock, and qualitative assessment suggests the stock is at moderate risk of extinction. We use data from this and similar stocks to develop an age-structured, density-dependent model of the population dynamics that incorporates both demographic and environmental stochasticity. Under the assumption of no further habitat destruction, the population is predicted to have a greater than 95% probability of persistence for 200 years. However, sensitivity analysis for the density-dependence estimated from historical run-return data shows that substantially lower predicted viabilities are also statistically consistent with the data. A model that simulates continued habitat degradation results in almost certain extinction within 100 years.     

Relative Contributions of Sampling Error in Initial Population Size and Vital Rates to Outcomes of Population Viability Analysis

Abstract:  We evaluated the relative contributions of sampling error (randomly chosen standard errors applied as 0–30% of parameter estimates) in initial population size and vital rates (survival and reproduction) to the outcome of a simulated population viability analysis for grizzly bears (  Ursus arctos ). Error in initial population size accounted for the largest source of variation (model II analysis of variance, F _25,5= 10.8, p = 0.00001) in simulation outcomes, explaining 60.5% of the variance. In contrast, error in vital rates contributed little to simulation outcomes ( F _25,5= 0.61, p = 0.70), accounting for only 2.4% of model variation. Reduced global variation in vital rates, as a result of independent random sampling of annual deviates for each parameter, likely contributed to the results. Errors in estimates of initial population size, if ignored in PVA, have the potential to leave managers with estimates of population persistence that are of little value for making management decisions.     

Population Viability Analysis of the Florida Manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris), 1976–1991

Recent development of age-determination techniques for Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris) has permitted derivation of age-specific data on reproduction and survival of a sample of 1212 carcasses obtained throughout Florida from 1976–1991. Population viability analysis using these data projects a slightly negative growth rate (−0.003) and an unacceptably low probability of persistence (0.44) over 1000 years. The main factors affecting population projections were adult survival and fecundity. A 10% increase in adult mortality would drive the population to extinction over a 1000-year time scale, whereas a 10% decrease in adult mortality would allow slow population growth. A 10% decrease in reproduction would also result in extinction. We conclude that management must focus on retaining and improving the conditions under which manatee demography operates. The major identified agent of mortality is boat-manatee collisions, and rapidly increasing numbers of humans and registered boats portend an increase in manatee mortality. Zoning of manatee-occupied waters for reductions in boating activity and speed is essential to safeguard the manatee population. If boating regulations being implemented by the state of Florida in each of 13 key coastal counties are completed, enforced, and effective, manatees and human recreation could coexist indefinitely. If regulation is unsuccessful, the Florida manatee population is likely to decline slowly toward extinction.     

Population Viability Estimates: Theory and Practice for a Wild Gorilla Population

The logic of demographic modeling, the apparent simplicity of its quantifiably substantiated answers, and the ready availability of software correlate with increasing use of demographic modeling as the means of applying biology to the conservation of potentially endangered populations. I investigated that use by considering a small population (about 300 individuals) of a large, forest-dwelling mammal of the tropics, the Virunga gorilla ( Gorilla gorilla ) of Zaire, Uganda, and Rwanda. Because censuses of forest populations are so inaccurate and data on variance of some parameters takes so long to collect, models might not be broadly applicable. Therefore, simple demographic indices of potential extinction should replace sophisticated models. The current best index could be problematic, however, because it is based on detecting adult mortality, perhaps the most difficult demographic parameter to measure. Models of the Virunga gorilla population that incorporate aspects of demographic heterogeneity valuably indicate genetic and demographic persistence for several hundred years. Deterministic change in habitat is a greater threat than stochastic demographic variation, and yet our ecological ignorance is such that we could not begin to model the consequences of removal of even the main food plant. We must add to our ability to model outcomes of demographic perturbation a far greater understanding of the processes by which the perturbations occur. Demography allows us to model demographic response to demographic change, but we usually need ecology to tell us how the threat produced the demographic change in the first place. In a time of change, accurate prediction requires ecological understanding of process as well as demographic understanding of outcome.