Fuzzy Logic Model to Estimate Seasonal Pseudo Steady State Chlorophyll-A Concentrations in Reservoirs

A fuzzy logic model is developed to estimate pseudo steady state chlorophyll-a concentrations in a very large and deep dam reservoir, namely Keban Dam Reservoir, which is also highly spatial and temporal variable. The estimation power of the developed fuzzy logic model was tested by comparing its performance with that from the classical multiple regression model. The data include chlorophyll-a concentrations in Keban lake as a response variable, as well as several water quality variables such as PO₄ phosphorus, NO₃ nitrogen, alkalinity, suspended solids concentration, pH, water temperature, electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen concentration and Secchi depth as independent environmental variables. Because of the complex nature of the studied water body, as well as non-significant functional relationships among the water quality variables to the chlorophyll-a concentration, an initial analysis is conducted to select the most important variables that can be used in estimating the chlorophyll-a concentrations within the studied water body. Following the outcomes from this initial analysis, the fuzzy logic model is developed to estimate the chlorophyll-a concentrations and the advantages of this new model is demonstrated in model fitting over the traditional multiple regression method.     

A Spatial Model to Estimate Habitat Fragmentation and Its Consequences on Long-Term Persistence of Animal Populations

The increasing use of the landscape by humans has led to important diminutions of natural surfaces. The remaining patches of wild habitat are small and isolated from each other among a matrix of inhospitable land-uses. This habitat fragmentation, by disabling population movements and stopping their spread to new habitats, is a major threat to the survival of numerous plant and animal species. We developed a general model, adaptable for specific species, capable of identifying suitable habitat patches within fragmented landscapes and investigating the capacity of populations to move between these patches. This approach combines GIS analysis of a landscape, with spatial dynamic modeling. Suitable habitat is identified using a threshold area to perimeter ratio. Potential movement pathways of species between habitat patches are modeled using a cellular automaton. Habitat connectivity is estimated by overlaying habitat patches with movement pathways. The maximum potential population is calculated within and between connected habitat patches and potential risk of inbreeding within meta-populations is considered. The model was tested on a sample map and applied to scenario maps of predicted land-use change in the Peoria Tri-county region (IL). It (1) showed area of natural area alone was insufficient to estimate the consequences on animal populations; (2) underscored the necessity to use approaches investigating the effect of land-use change spatially through the landscape and the importance of considering species-specific life history characteristics; and (3) highlighted the model's potential utility as an indicator of species likelihood to be affected negatively by land-use scenarios and therefore requiring detailed investigation.     

Development of an Ozone Forecasting Model for Non-Attainment Areas in the State of Ohio

Ground level ozone is responsible for the formation ofsmog, and for a variety of adverse effects on bothhuman and plant life. High concentrations of groundlevel ozone occur during the summer months. This paperdescribes the development of a model to forecast themaximum daily concentration of ozone as a function ofthe maximum surface temperature, for ozonenon-attainment regions in Ohio. The model wasdeveloped by statistical analysis of existing data.Site-specific models were developed initially. Theverification and evaluation of the performancecriteria of the model at each site were explored bycomparing the model with an independent datasetcollected from that site. A generalized statewidemodel was developed from the site-specific models. Theperformance criteria of this model were verified andevaluated by employing the same independent datasetsemployed for the site-specific models. An exceedencemodel to predict the occurrence of ozone exceedencesover 100 ppb has also been presented.     

有机污染物环境逸度模型构建及软件化

目前研究人员已经可以通过建立模型来评估有机物的环境风险并研究其在多介质环境中的迁移与转化。针对多介质逸度模型中的参数繁多,不利于研究人员模拟有机污染物的归趋状况的问题,现基于Ⅲ级多介质环境逸度模型,采用Python编程语言进行软件设计,完成有机物在环境各介质中的分布模拟功能,并在此基础上集成参数灵敏度和模型不确定度分析功能,且对用户提供了友好的图形界面。以北京地区地表水环境中的药物和个人护理品（PPCPs）为例,研究结果表明该软件得到的模拟值与实测值有较好的吻合度,可为有机物的区域环境污染和风险评估提供参考。     

Field Study of Wind and Traffic to Test a Street Canyon Pollution Model

In the U.K., local authorities have new duties to review and assess air quality. Dispersion models are important tools in this process. The performance of a street canyon model, AEOLIUS, in calculating carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations in urban areas is discussed. A field experiment was conducted in a busy street canyon in Leek, Staffordshire. Wind speed and direction were measured at three heights adjacent to the street. The canyon's CO concentrations and traffic counts were recorded. Predicted concentrations of CO, calculated using AEOLIUS, were compared with the observed values. The concept of a roof-top wind is discussed, as are the consequences of using wind measurements from outside the town. Choice of wind measurement location and height of the anemometer above the canyon had a pronounced effect on calculating the roof-top wind. Two methods of deriving a street level wind speed from a roof-top wind speed gave results that differ by up to a factor of two. AEOLIUS had variable skill at predicting CO concentrations depending on the roof-top wind direction: possible reasons for this variability are explored. A sensitivity study of the model showed that vehicle emissions have the greatest impact on predicted concentrations. Implications for local air quality management are discussed.     

大气颗粒物源解析受体模型应用研究及发展现状

通过大量文献资料调研对化学质量平衡模型、二重源解析技术、主因子分析、正矩阵因子分析法等目前应用较广泛的受体模型方法的原理、优缺点和应用现状进行了比较分析,对单颗粒源解析方法、有机物示踪技术和扩散与受体模型联用技术等受体模型新技术方法进行了评述。     

Model Assessment of Air-Pollution in Prague

Results of relatively simple gaussian dispersion model are presented. This model, developed in the beginning of this decade, is suitable mainly for determination of spatial distributions of annual mean concentrations of such kinds of air-pollution as sulphur dioxide (SO₂), mixture of nitrogen oxides (NO_x) or suspended particulate matter (SPM) from all types of emission sources located within the city - point sources, line sources and area sources. Model has been used in years 1994, 1996 and 1998 to assess the air-pollution distributions of the above mentioned kinds in the Prague area and the development of the air quality state. It contributed to the decision making process when possible impact of some changes in traffic system or in system of domestic heating, for example, has been investigated. In this contribution, behaviour of sulphur dioxide (SO₂) and mixture of nitrogen oxides (NO_x) ground concentration distributions are analyzed with respect to changing emission situation in Prague in recent years. Results show that SO₂ ground concentration level decreases mainly due to changes in local heating methods and type of fuel used. Different trend can be seen in NO_x ground concentrations thanks to rapid increase in the traffic density.     

Development and Evaluation of a Regulatory Model for Pesticides in Flooded Applications

The pesticides in flooded applications model (PFAM) is a regulatory model for government agencies and others interested in estimating water concentrations of pesticides used in flooded agriculture applications such as rice paddies and cranberries bogs. PFAM was designed around the specific parameters that are typically available for a pesticide risk assessment, thereby simplifying the model and allowing the user to concentrate on only the most relevant model inputs. The model considers the fate properties of pesticides and allows for the specifications of typical flooded agriculture management practices such as scheduled water releases and refills. It also allows for natural water-level fluctuations resulting from precipitation and evapotranspiration. Model quality assurance requirements for regulatory models aimed at protecting the public are that the models err on the high side of measured data and at the same time should not cause undue burden to stakeholders by being overly conservative. For the studies herein, PFAM did tend to err on the high side of the data yet provided more realistic estimates than the currently used methods, which thereby reduced stakeholder burden. As is also important for a regulatory model, PFAM is nonproprietary and freely available.     

Development of a Model for Simulation of Solute Transport in a Stream–Aquifer System

A model for simulation of solute transport in a dynamic stream–aquifer system is developed by integrating four existing sub-models. Interface packages are created to link the sub-models. The developed model is successfully used to simulate chloride transport in the stream–aquifer system of the Arkansas River and the Equus Beds Aquifer in Kansas and demonstrates that chloride concentration in the aquifer decreases in the vicinity of the simulated channel over time.     

基于耦合模型的安徽经济与环境协调发展分析

构建了经济发展与生态环境评价指标体系,选用耦合协调度模型计算2010—2019年安徽省不同区域经济发展与生态环境的耦合协调度,并采用灰色关联度法计算评价指标与耦合协调度的关联系数。研究结果表明:全省经济发展与生态环境的耦合协调度整体呈改善趋势,耦合协调度集中分布在0.393～0.765,基本处于良好协调或低水平协调阶段。全省不同区域的生态环境指数均大于经济发展指数。省会城市、沿江江南地区耦合协调度高于江淮之间和淮河以北地区。工业"三废"排放量、环境质量、环境污染治理力度是影响经济发展与生态环境耦合协调度的重要因素,建议通过改善这些方面进一步提升经济与环境的耦合协调度水平。     

A Budget Model to Scale Nutrient Biogeochemical Cycles in Two Semienclosed Gulfs

The nutrient dynamics of the Strymonikos and Ierissos Gulfs, two semienclosed coastal water bodies, are studied using a simple steady-state budget model, according to the Land–Ocean Interaction in the Coastal Zone modeling guidelines. Strymon river plume dynamics prevailed in the area of the Inner and Outer Srymonikos Gulfs, comprising two layers, while the Ierissos Gulf was defined as a one-box system. Seasonal and mean annual model input data for river discharge, precipitation, evaporation, and concentrations of salt, phosphorus, and nitrogen were obtained during four field campaigns. Results from the nitrogen and phosphorus cycling revealed the importance of river discharge in the horizontal and vertical transport of these substances within the system. Furthermore, it occurred that the major biogeochemical transformation of nitrogen and phosphorus takes place in the immediate nearshore zone (Inner Strymonikos Gulf), while the outer system sustains its nutrient dependence on oceanic exchanges. Therefore, under the summer low flow conditions, the river-influenced inner system acts as a net source of nitrogen and phosphorus, while under increased Strymon River discharge, phosphorus is transferred to the biological material (and the sediments), and the system moves to an autotrophic state. The outer system showed an opposite behavior being autotrophic throughout the year and heterotrophic in February. The Ierissos Gulf, a system not directly influenced by significant river discharge, experienced a seasonally independent behavior with net heterotrophic and denitrification processes prevailing. Model scenarios demonstrated that phosphate concentration increases, even under low river flow conditions and stimulates primary production in excess of respiration, resulting in nitrogen fixation prevalence in the Inner Strymonikos Gulf.     

土壤污染物源解析技术研究进展

简述了土壤污染物源解析技术的发展历程及土壤污染物的主要类型与来源。指出,定性源识别技术主要包括特征比值法、多元统计法、空间分析法等;定量源解析技术主要包括源清单法、扩散模型法、化学质量平衡模型法、正定矩阵因子分解法、UNMIX模型法、同位素法等。重点总结了这些技术方法的原理及其在应用上的优势与局限。从解析对象、解析方法和软件开发角度,提出了土壤污染物源解析技术的未来发展方向。     

不同土地利用类型作物中多环芳烃含量调查

文章调查了江苏苏州某典型生态示范区内,多环芳烃在不同土地利用类型和各种作物的富集、迁移、转化情况并进行比对、分析,确定不同土地利用类型中作物多环芳烃污染水平不同;不同作物对多环芳烃的富集效率不同;同一作物的不同组织(器官)多环芳烃含量也不同,初步分析了多环芳烃在水-土-气各介质之间的迁移富集规律.为推进江苏"生态省"建设与可持续发展提供一定的技术参考依据.     

高光谱遥感在土壤重金属污染监测中的应用

综述了高光谱遥感直接监测土壤重金属污染及利用植被重金属胁迫光谱数据间接监测重金属污染区域的各种方法,分析了反演模型存在的问题,提出了引入人工智能技术、高维矩阵和数据挖掘算法,以及寻求更好的数据同化模型等提高反演精度的后续研究方向。     

基于GWLF模型的于桥水库入库河流水文模拟及氮磷负荷估算

流域模型技术应用是当前开展面源污染防治的重要工具,而水文过程的准确模拟是进行污染负荷估算的首要环节和关键步骤。为了弄清近年来于桥水库入库河流氮、磷输入负荷,选取GWLF模型对水平口子流域的水文过程进行模拟,首先利用2006—2018年气象、水文资料率定模型水文参数,然后将参数推广到整个流域,对2019—2020年3条主要入库河流流量进行模拟,最后乘以相应河流断面的总氮、总磷浓度估算氮磷输入负荷。结果显示:GWLF模型适用于研究区的水文过程模拟,校准期和验证期的纳氏系数分别为0.89和0.91,平均相对误差分别为12.2%和13.1%;2020年总氮入库负荷为3 977.0 t,其中引滦调水贡献占57.0%,3条入库河流共贡献43.0%;总磷入库负荷为48.8 t,其中引滦调水贡献占68.6%,3条入库河流共贡献31.4%。GWLF模型输入数据需求量较少,模型参数较少,模拟效果较好,适用于中小型流域的水资源和水环境管理,具有一定的推广应用前景。     

灰色系统模型在高锰酸盐指数预测中的应用

以某地地表水中高锰酸盐指数年平均浓度变化为依据 ,应用灰色系统中 GM(1 ,1 )模型 ,对高锰酸盐指数浓度进行预测分析。     

Assessing the effects of land use changes on soil sensitivity to erosion in a highland ecosystem of semi-arid Turkey

There has been increasing concern in highlands of semiarid Turkey that conversion of these systems results in excessive soil erosion, ecosystem degradation, and loss of sustainable resources. An increasing rate of land use/cover changes especially in semiarid mountainous areas has resulted in important effects on physical and ecological processes, causing many regions to undergo accelerated environmental degradation in terms of soil erosion, mass movement and reservoir sedimentation. This paper, therefore, explores the impact of land use changes on land degradation in a linkage to the soil erodibility, RUSLE-K, in Cankiri–Indagi Mountain Pass, Turkey. The characterization of soil erodibility in this ecosystem is important from the standpoint of conserving fragile ecosystems and planning management practices. Five adjacent land uses (cropland, grassland, woodland, plantation, and recreational land) were selected for this research. Analysis of variance showed that soil properties and RUSLE-K statistically changed with land use changes and soils of the recreational land and cropland were more sensitive to water erosion than those of the woodland, grassland, and plantation. This was mainly due to the significant decreases in soil organic matter (SOM) and hydraulic conductivity (HC) in those lands. Additionally, soil samples randomly collected from the depths of 0–10 cm (D ₁) and 10–20 cm (D ₂) with irregular intervals in an area of 1,200 by 4,200 m sufficiently characterized not only the spatial distribution of soil organic matter (SOM), hydraulic conductivity (HC), clay (C), silt (Si), sand (S) and silt plus very fine sand (Si + VFS) but also the spatial distribution of RUSLE-K as an algebraically estimate of these parameters together with field assessment of soil structure to assess the dynamic relationships between soil properties and land use types. In this study, in order to perform the spatial analyses, the mean sampling intervals were 43, 50, 64, 78, 85 m for woodland, plantation, grassland, recreation, and cropland with the sample numbers of 56, 79, 72, 13, and 69, respectively, resulting in an average interval of 64 m for whole study area. Although nugget effect and nugget effect–sill ratio gave an idea about the sampling design adequacy, the better results are undoubtedly likely by both equi-probable spatial sampling and random sampling representative of all land uses.     

Development and Parameterization of a Rain- and Fire-driven Model for Exploring Elephant Effects in African Savannas

We describe the development and parameterization of a grid-based model of African savanna vegetation processes. The model was developed with the objective of exploring elephant effects on the diversity of savanna species and structure, and in this formulation concentrates on the relative cover of grass and woody plants, the vertical structure of the woody plant community, and the distribution of these over space. Grid cells are linked by seed dispersal and fire, and environmental variability is included in the form of stochastic rainfall and fire events. The model was parameterized from an extensive review of the African savanna literature; when available, parameter values varied widely. The most plausible set of parameters produced long-term coexistence between woody plants and grass, with the tree–grass balance being more sensitive to changes in parameters influencing demographic processes and drought incidence and response, while less sensitive to fire regime. There was considerable diversity in the woody structure of savanna systems within the range of uncertainty in tree growth rate parameters. Thus, given the paucity of height growth data regarding woody plant species in southern African savannas, managers of natural areas should be cognizant of different tree species growth and damage response attributes when considering whether to act on perceived elephant threats to vegetation.