基于支持向量机的职业病危害预警模型研究

职业病危害的防治近年来逐渐得到国家和企业的重视,但是相关的标准和防治方案还不够健全,职业病危害的防治工作还有很长的路要走,职业病危害的相关预警模型建立还处于探索研究阶段。采用支持向量机对职业病危害的相关因素进行预警模型的建立和分析,新模型弥补了现有预警模型的部分缺陷,在一定误差范围内能实现更小样本、更快速度的职业病危害预警。     

基于屏障模型的风险管理基础术语辨析

为厘清风险管理基础术语间的相互关系,本文基于屏障模型对危害因素、危险源和隐患,风险和危害因素这2组风险管理基础术语的相互关系进行辨析;并通过屏障模型探究事故致因机理与事故防控的相关理论.研究表明:Hazard对应的中文翻译为危害因素,危害因素可分为源头类危害因素(危险源)与衍生类危害因素2大类,衍生类危害因素可分为潜在型危险因素与现实型危险因素(隐患);危害因素有与之相对应的风险,衍生类危害因素决定着发生事故的可能性;源头类危害因素决定着事故后果严重程性.屏障模型可作为屏障理论的基本模型.     

恐怖袭击下危险品运输车辆危害影响范围研究

针对关系模型在计算蒸气云爆炸影响范围时假定危害强度瞬间释放的问题,研究了危险品运输车辆危害影响范围。首先,在恐怖袭击条件下,分析了危险品运输车辆危害强度释放特性,提出了"基元风险损失值"概念,并构建了基元风险损失值模型;其次,在假定危害强度随距离和时间匀减速递减前提下,构建了危险品运输车辆危害影响范围模型;最后,采用数值仿真方法,就不同袭击条件对车辆的危害影响范围特性进行了定量分析。仿真结果表明:①危害强度消失系数与危害影响范围呈同向变化关系;②危害强度随距离匀加速递减数值与危害影响范围呈逆向变化关系;③初始爆炸单位经济损失与危害影响范围呈逆向变化关系;④人口密度与危害影响范围呈同向变化关系,死亡半径内人口密度对危害影响范围大小起着决定性作用。上述结果为研究恐怖袭击对危险品运输车辆危害影响范围提供新的研究思路和方法。     

基于Fuzzy模型的职业病危害综合风险评估方法研究

为有效评估作业场所职业病危害的风险大小,研究职业病危害综合风险评估方法。在综合考虑作业场所职业病危害的固有危害特征、接触特征、防护特征和健康影响特征等风险影响因素的基础上,采用层次分析和专家咨询法筛选和建立了职业病危害综合风险评价指标体系,研究制定了各评价指标的分级评价准则,利用模糊数学理论,构建了基于Fuzzy模型的职业病危害综合风险评价模型。该方法可以对职业病危害的综合风险进行评估,并能够确定风险控制的优先权,避免了传统单一指标评价的局限性,对职业病危害评价工作具有一定借鉴意义。     

电焊条生产行业职业危害监测评价模型研究

根据电焊条生产行业职业危害特点,选取了粉尘、噪声、气温、湿度、风速五项指标,采用线性回归方法,对三家典型电焊条生产企业的现场监测数据进行了分析,拟合出该行业职业危害监测评价模型,并得出结论:(1)粉尘是电焊条生产行业职业危害的主要因素及职业危害监测评价的重要指标,与以往研究结果进行比较后,进一步验证了研究结果的正确性;(2)建立了以粉尘为主要自变量的两个模型,模型相关系数分别为0.9、0.929,表明模型具有科学性、有效性,为职业危害监测评价提供了又一新方法.     

企业职业卫生综合风险管理评估体系的研究与应用

为了能够全面、客观地评估企业职业卫生风险管理质量,利用美国EPA吸入风险评估模型、新加坡化学物职业暴露半定量风险评估模型以及风险指数评估模型,对作业场所存在的职业病危害因素进行风险水平评估,并结合企业职业卫生管理评估模型,对企业职业卫生管理水平进行定量评估,以风险等级和管理水平,综合判断企业职业卫生风险水平。将该体系应用于实例分析,结果表明:体系在充分考虑企业职业病危害因素时空分布以及企业管理现状的基础上,能够定量评估职业病危害因素的急慢性影响以及企业职业卫生管理水平。     

基于物元分析的作业场所风险评估模型研究

作业场所职业危害风险评估受人、机、环境和管理等多方面因素的影响,而这些方面的各个指标之间的不相容性常被以往的研究所忽视或者未得到很好解决.选用多级物元分析方法,建立能描述各影响因素之间相互关系的数学模型,对作业场所职业危害的风险进行了较为全面的评价.针对作业场所职业危害的现状及特点,从人、机、环境和管理方面入手,系统地分析了作业场所职业危害程度的诸多影响因素,形成了风险评估体系,建立了作业场所风险评估的物元模型.运用此模型对某轧钢企业作业场所的职业危害进行风险评估,结果表明,该企业作业场所风险等级为第2级,属于一般危害程度,其评估结果与该企业实际的状况相符合.实例证明,该模型适用于作业场所职业危害的风险评估.     

码头油品蒸气云爆炸事故危害评价

运用“蒸气云爆炸”模型,对某码头油品蒸气云爆炸事故危害程度进行分析评价,得出油品爆炸事故危害程度分布的规律,为码头安全运行提供参考。     

电焊条生产行业职业危害统计指标研究

简洁、有效、便利的职业危害统计指标不仅能够提高职业危害评价结果的准确性,更能提高实际工作效率,对职业危害监管工作具有重要的意义。根据电焊条生产行业的特点,通过相关分析法、逐步回归分析法,对几个典型企业的监测数据进行分析,筛选出了最能直接判断电焊条生产行业职业危害状况的统计指标。入选的指标独立性好,适合进一步拟合电焊条生产行业职业危害监管模型。     

作业场所风险影响因素分析及评估模型研究

根据作业场所职业危害的现状和特点,结合企业安全生产活动的过程和大量职业病患病案例,从人、物、环境、管理、安全技术、法制监管和社会经济利益等方面对作业场所职业危害风险影响因素进行分析,总结出7大类、36个要素.运用系统工程理论,对各风险影响因素进行了定性和量化处理,建立了作业场所风险影响因素的5级多层递阶解释结构模型.通过分析作业场所风险影响因素的关系结构,得到作业场所职业危害风险的表层直接影响因素、中层间接影响因素和深层影响因素.以表层直接影响因素为基础,形成风险评估体系,建立了作业场所风险模糊综合评估模型.运用此模型对某轧钢企业作业场所的职业危害进行风险评估,结果表明,该企业作业场所风险等级为第2级,属于一般危害程度,与该企业实际的状况相符合.实例证明,该模型适用于作业场所职业危害的风险评估.     

基于改进VRP模型的危险品配送路径优化及其求解研究

危险品道路运输高风险性,一直受到人们的广泛关注。危险品道路运输路径优化的研究,对于降低运输风险具有十分重要的意义。本文针对危险品运输配送过程中的路径优化问题,提出综合考虑道路运输的风险和费用两方面指标改进VRP模型路径优化目标,并设计遗传算法对改进模型进行了求解。最后通过实例进行了验证。结果表明：用遗传算法对改进VRP模型的求解结果与实际分析结果相符。因此,改进VRP模型及其遗传算法求解设计可以应用于危险品运输的路径优化分析。     

Disaster impact assessment of the underground hazardous materials pipeline

In the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and other countries with advanced pipeline management, some organizations are responsible for pipeline safety protection management for underground hazardous materials. The security and maintenance of a hazardous material pipeline are serious considerations for urban safety, because the materials transported by underground pipelines contain hazardous goods, such as the flammable or explosive particles of solids, liquids, and gases. Damage to a pipeline by external forces often leads to secondary disasters, such as the leakage of hazardous materials, fires, explosions, and environmental pollution. Such events seriously affect the safety of individuals and their property.Accordingly, this study used seismic scenario analysis with a spatial grid to evaluate earthquake damage to an underground pipeline in an urban area. Damage to underground pipelines was classified, pipeline disaster management procedures were discussed, and improvement measures were proposed, such as establishing a geographic information platform and conducting disaster impact assessments for hazardous material pipelines. Underground hazardous material pipelines were assessed in scenarios including earthquakes. Such assessments are intended to provide disaster reduction plans and disaster prevention drills to improve pipeline safety as well as the planning for pipeline materials to aid seismic resistance.     

有害物品运输的总风险分析

随着工业的发展,有害物品的生产量和运输量均在逐年增加,有害物品对环境和人的危害正在扩大和加深。有害物品运输中的风险是有害物品对于人类、环境和财产等方面威胁的最为重要的组成部分。笔者将有害物品的运输风险分为人口风险、环境风险和财产风险3个部分;在基于事故发生率和事故产生的后果两个方面,分别对人口风险、环境风险和财产风险进行了度量,并给出了风险度量的模型。同时由于各个部分风险度量的量纲并不统一,笔者对3部分风险进行了度量的统一化,获得了总风险的构成,并与传统的单独考虑人口风险的情况进行了对比,为有害物品的运输提供了参考依据。     

What you don’t manage will leak: A tribute to Trevor Kletz

This paper expands on a simple concept shared with us over three decades ago by Trevor Kletz: what you don’t have can’t leak. Despite many efforts at eliminating hazards through inherently safer process methodologies, as encouraged by Kletz and others, the reality is that the use of hazardous materials and processes is still quite common. Therefore, we consider those processes that still handle hazardous materials – the cases where what you do not manage will leak and may cause a fire, explosion or toxic release. Our intended audience is quite broad. As Kletz has noted over the years, it is not just the people running a process who are responsible for its safety, but also those who make decisions on its design, operation, maintenance, staffing, etc. We hope that this paper contributes to an understanding of why we continue to have hazardous materials leak, potentially leading to accidents that cause fatalities, serious injuries, property damage, and environmental harm.We expand on the fundamental equation for risk, a function of both the frequency and the consequence of a possible event, by considering the effects of poor operational discipline on risk, and ultimately, on the possible leak or release of the hazardous material. Continued safe operation involving hazardous materials depends on and is sustained by the operational discipline of everyone involved in the design of processes and their continuing operation and maintenance. What we do not manage will leak and therein lays the fundamental challenge that Kletz continues to emphasize today.     

A transportation network assessment tool for hazardous material cargo routing: Weighing exposure health risks,proximity to vulnerable areas,delay costs and trucking expenses

The inherent risks associated with accidental releases of hazardous materials during transport have drawn attention and concerns in the recent decades. The aim of this study is to propose a tool for evaluation and comparison of the transportation networks which can be used to assess the routing options between origins and destinations of the cargos for their suitability for transporting hazardous material cargos by tanker trucks and to identify routes which provide lower accidental release risks, lower public exposure risks, and offer economical benefits. Each route segment of transportation networks were evaluated using specific criteria which included health risk and cost of delay in case of an accidental release of materials, trucking cost and proximity to vulnerable areas. Since, the health impact of hazardous materials differ depending on the characteristics of the material being transported as well as release quantities and atmospheric conditions; this paper aimed in providing a tool that can be used to estimate the impact radius (for health risks) after accidental release of hazardous materials by taking into account different atmospheric conditions based on the meteorological data and solar elevation angle. The Gaussian air dispersion model paired with ArcGIS using Python programming were employed to estimate the health risk impact zones by considering the meteorological data, and accordingly to analyze road segments for cost impacts (delay and trucking costs), and the proximity to vulnerable areas. The route assessment tool was demonstrated with a case study. The results of this study can efficiently aid decision makers for transportation of hazardous materials.     

危险货物多式联运路径优化问题的多目标优化算法

为了更为有效地规划与管理危险货物运输,研究在多式联运危险货物时的路径优化问题,同时囊括双目标、多批货物以及货物的送达时间要求和路段的容量限制。以运输和转运过程中的总成本和总风险最小为目标,构建了双目标0-1线性规划模型。集成路径搜索算法和非支配排序规则,设计了基于帕累托分析的多目标优化算法,以获得原问题的非劣路径。算例结果表明,该算法可有效地获得实际问题的一组具有竞争性的非劣解,且相比于单式运输,多式联运危险货物有望同时降低总成本和总风险。     

基于事故分级的有害物品运输路径风险度量模型研究

有害物品运输的路径问题实质上是对有害物品相关的风险考量,对风险如何进行测量,直接影响路径选择的结果。在有关有害物品运输文献中,已经提出了多种风险测量模型,最广泛使用的风险定义是路径中节点间发生事故后果的期望值,它等于事故发生的可能性与其可量化的结果的乘积。所提出的风险度量模型均没有考虑到事故分级对路径风险评价结果的影响。为此,提出将事故分级引入风险度量模型,并对原有模型进行相应改进,可以有效地克服原有模型的计量误差,减少路径运输风险。     

Developing a chaotic pattern of dynamic risk definition for solving hazardous material routing-locating problem

In the case of determining routes and locations for constructing distribution centers on hazardous materials (Hazmat) transportation, risk and cost are considered as the main attributes for developing mathematical models. Since, Hazmat transport risk may be defined as a chaotic factor, using dynamic risk changes the selected routes and optimized locations for constructing distribution centers.In the present paper, an iterative procedure has been proposed to determine the best routes and optimized locations of distribution centers for transporting hazardous materials based on the concept of chaos theory in which hazmat transport risk is defined as a dynamic variable. A mathematical model has been developed for solving Hazmat routing and locating problems, simultaneously. Daily transport risk, defined as a chaotic variable, is iteratively updated using one-dimensional logistic map equation over the time period (year). An experimental road network, consists of eighty nine nodes and one hundred and three two-way edges, has been selected for analytical process and model validation. Results revealed that although different amounts of risk and cost priorities change optimized locations of distribution centers and their associated supplies, but the most frequent set of optimized centers remains independent. Therefore, the proposed procedure is capable to determine the best routes and optimized locations for distributing hazardous materials. While risk is iteratively updated over a specific time period, results show that the main property of chaos theory known as dependency upon initial condition would not be a serious concern for decision makers who are dealing with Hazmat management.     

危险品道路运输泄漏引发水污染事故的定量风险评估方法研究

介绍了由道路交通事故引发的地表水污染事故风险定量分析方法,重点分析了突发水污染事故源发生概率和危害后果表征方法.以评价水域内道路危险品运输泄漏事故发生概率为水污染事故源发生概率.污染事故后果危害水平的表征:1)敏感区(点)最高浓度; 2)敏感区(点)超标总历时;3)水质超标的范围(如超标河流长度).评估方法为陆源造成的突发水污染事故的预防管理与应急计划的制订实施提供了科学依据.     

化工储罐区空袭次生灾害危险性评价研究

根据化工储罐区及其遭空袭次生灾害的特点,以空袭次生灾害的影响范围作为危险性评价的标准,对化工储罐区的空袭次生灾害进行危险性评价。指出储罐遭空袭后的3种毁伤方式;给出储罐遭空袭发生的次生灾害及其扩散的形式与后果;阐述了化工储罐区空袭次生灾害的成灾机理;分别提出热辐射伤害、冲击波伤害和有毒有害物质扩散的危险性评价方法。以池火灾为例,建立了池火灾的危险性评价模型;论述了池火灾危险性评价的具体流程,并进行了案例分析,根据计算结果提出了相应的减灾对策。笔者认为,化工储罐区遭空袭后的次生灾害的危险性评价具有现实意义,对于化工园区、石化厂、危化品仓库等突发安全事故产生次生灾害的危险性评价同样具有重要的参考价值。